Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFlytek, AI hardware companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology, and AI-related applications that can enhance user engagement and payment rates, recommending companies like Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology [2] Core Insights - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with computing power remaining stable and application growth accelerating. Other sectors like intelligent driving and financial IT are also projected to show steady growth [11][12] - The report highlights the recent advancements in AI products, including the launch of free intelligent products by Zhiyuan and significant funding for OpenAI, which will enhance AI research and infrastructure [4][13] - The impact of the recent tariff policy announced by Trump is expected to have a limited effect on the overall performance of the computing sector, as overseas revenue accounts for only about 10% of demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The report discusses the launch of Zhiyuan's free intelligent product "AutoGLM" and the advancements in AI capabilities by Baidu and OpenAI, emphasizing the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the AI sector [11][13] - It notes that the computing sector's performance is likely to be influenced by domestic demand policies and the ongoing trend of domestic substitution and self-control in technology [11] 2. Subsector Insights - AI Industry Chain: High prosperity maintained, with computing power stable and application growth accelerating [10] - Intelligent Driving: Growth is expected to accelerate, particularly in areas like LiDAR and vehicle-road cloud integration [10] - Financial IT: The sector is experiencing steady growth, supported by high trading volumes and favorable policies [14] - Industrial Software: Anticipated breakthroughs in industrial AI applications, with significant projects underway [15] 3. Market Performance - The computing industry index saw a decline of 1.87% from March 31 to April 4, 2025, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [16] - The report identifies the top-performing companies in the computing sector during this period, highlighting both gains and losses among key players [22] 4. Upcoming Events - The report outlines several upcoming industry events, including technology exchange days and conferences focused on 6G, drones, and machine learning, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [27] Core Insights - Offline Retail: Yonghui Supermarket is accelerating store renovations and deepening supply chain reforms, with a focus on quality retail to reach more mainstream Chinese families [11][12] - Online Retail: Meituan is implementing a new social security plan and enhancing its membership system, while Kuaishou is advancing AI capabilities in commercial marketing [2][13] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Company Dynamics - Yonghui Supermarket has opened multiple renovated stores across five cities, achieving significant increases in customer traffic, with a focus on quality retail [11] - Meituan has upgraded its membership system to a points-based model, integrating various services, and is initiating a pilot for rider pension insurance [13] - Kuaishou's 2025 Magnetic Conference highlighted significant growth in user engagement and advertising consumption, alongside advancements in AI applications [13] 2. Industry Data Tracking - In March, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com increased by 13.51% year-on-year, with top-performing categories including automotive, pets, home appliances, cosmetics, and maternal and infant products [14] 3. Market Review - During the week of March 31 to April 3, major indices showed declines, with the retail sector experiencing a slight drop of 0.52%, ranking 17th among 31 sectors [19][22] - Notable stock performances included ZTE Commercial, Guofang Group, and Yonghui Supermarket, which saw significant gains, while others like Cross-Border Communication and ST Dongfang faced declines [20][26]

周观点 特朗普政府加征关税或将倒逼中国加速内需扩张。2025 年 4 月 2 日，特朗普政府签署行政令，对中国输美商品加征 34%关税，叠加现有税率后综合税率达 54%，涉及电子、汽车、纺织等关键行业。中国迅速采取反制措施，包括对美 农产品（大豆、玉米）、能源（液化天然气）加征 10%-15%关税，并限制稀土出口，精准打击美国农业州与能源产业。 我们认为，加征关税叠加提振消费政策大力支持下，国内消费需求有望逐步好转，出行旅游、免税、餐饮、人力资 源服务等行业有望直接受益。 蜜雪冰城：24 年报符合预期，Q4 单店增速改善，看好拓店&单店改善持续性。24 全年：收入 248 亿元/+22.3%，归母 净利 44.4 亿元/+41.4%，符合预期；单 Q4 收入 61.7 亿元/+25.7%，归母净利 9.5 亿元/+29.1%。 霸王茶姬：同店&拓店推动快速成长，利润率优于同业。22-24 年营收 4.9/46.4/124.1 亿元、yoy+844%/+167%；净利 润-0.9/8.0/25.1 亿元，净利率-18.5%/17.3%/20.3%，24 年净利率高于蜜雪（18%）。 达势股份：24 年业绩符合预 ...

核心观点 4 月 2 日特朗普宣布将对所有国家征收 10%的"基准关税"，对美国贸易逆差最大的国家征收个性化的更高"对等关 税"，其中中国 34%，柬埔寨 49%，越南 46%，泰国 36%，印尼 32%，印度 26%。其中基准关税将于美东 4 月 5 日凌晨 0 时生效，对等关税将于美东时间 4 月 9 日凌晨 0 时生效。此次加征关税范围和幅度远超市场预期。对于美国加征关 税，我国迅速出台反制措施，4 月 4 日，经国务院批准我国自 2025 年 4 月 10 日 12 时起，对原产于美国的所有进口 商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。贸易战或将持续升级。 我们认为全球加征关税不影响目前龙头企业在产业链内的优势地位，但是大概率会造成美国零售疲软，影响行业的 景气度。1）此次关税的实施范围仍不确定，且影响范围尚不明朗，川普 4 月 4 日发推称越南希望其被美国征收零关 税，未来会与越南展开洽谈如果能与美国达成某种协议。我们判断美国关税政策仍处于变化期，后续调整可能性较 大，从川普目前表态来看越南最终被加征关税数额或许不会像美方开始所表示的那么多，此事件对于过去已把产业 链转移到越南的制造公司来说 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.03.31-2025.04.04）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2585.26 点(周环比+1.51%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3861.50 （周环比-1.37%），深证综指收于 1992.39.18 点（周环比-1.67%），上证综指收于 3342.01 点（周环比-0.28%），科 创板收于 1018.07 点（周环比-1.11%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的 为医药生物（周环比+1.20%）、农林牧渔（周环比+1.51%）、食品饮料（周环比+0.07%），农林牧渔（周环比+1.51%） 排名第 2。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 128.12 公斤/头，生猪均重处于历史同期较高位置，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.55pct 至 14.31%，近期生猪存在增重、二育以及冻品入库等累库行为，累库下生猪价格震荡，行业供给压力持续后移，预计生 猪价格随着供给的增加和库存端的压力释放存在下跌空间。目前关于猪价悲观预期已经在期货端有较为充分的释放， 而年后价格表现强于此前预期使得整体预期略有上修，产能端缓慢的补充状态对2025年猪价 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI-driven sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas AI-driven sectors like servers, switches, and optical modules [5] Core Insights - The Trump administration's tariffs on China are expected to pressure high export-exposed sectors in the short term, while domestic alternatives in computing power are recommended for investment [2][3] - OpenAI has secured a significant $40 billion funding round, with approximately $18 billion allocated for the "Stargate" data center project [3][7] - The OFC 2025 conference showcased advancements in optical communication technologies, highlighting the importance of 1.6T optical modules and 200G optical chips [2][10] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication sector is experiencing steady growth, with operators reporting a 0.9% year-on-year increase in telecom revenue for the first two months of 2025, totaling CNY 295 billion [17][18] - Domestic IDC manufacturers are less affected by tariffs due to their low overseas revenue exposure and strong supply chain control [13] Server Market - The server index has seen a decline of 1.37% this week, but demand for computing power remains strong due to ongoing capital expenditures from North American cloud providers [7][10] - Major players like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, indicating robust demand for server infrastructure [7][10] Switch Market - The OFC conference highlighted the introduction of new optical circuit switches (OCS) designed for AI workloads, which promise low latency and high scalability [10][11] - Domestic switch manufacturers are beginning to enter the commercial phase with new products, while the overall industry is still in its early stages [10][11] Optical Module Market - The optical module index has decreased by 0.89% this week, with a focus on low-power designs and innovations in CPO/MPO technologies [11][30] - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, driven by AI advancements and infrastructure needs [11][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report suggests a focus on domestic companies capable of achieving domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Core Insights - The antitrust investigation into DuPont China Group is a landmark event for the industry, signaling accelerated growth for domestic enterprises in the high-end materials sector [2]. - The investigation reflects China's strategic response to foreign competition in the chemical high-end materials market, allowing domestic companies to compete more fairly and potentially reduce procurement costs for downstream enterprises [3][4]. - DuPont's significant reliance on the Chinese market, contributing approximately 18% (around $2.29 billion) to its global revenue, indicates that the company is unlikely to abandon this market despite the ongoing investigation [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On April 4, DuPont China Group was investigated for allegedly violating the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [1]. Event Analysis - The antitrust investigation is seen as a pivotal moment for the industry, coinciding with recent tariff increases imposed by the U.S. on China, which further emphasizes the competitive landscape [2]. - China's chemical market is the largest globally, with domestic companies having made significant advancements in self-sufficiency and competitiveness in the mid-to-low-end product segments [2]. Company Insights - DuPont has a strong presence in protective materials, photovoltaic materials, membrane materials, and electronic materials, having evolved from its origins in military explosives to a leader in fine chemicals [3]. - The antitrust investigation presents opportunities for domestic companies to break existing exclusive agreements and enhance their market positions [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on domestic companies that are positioned to lead in high-end material substitutions, leveraging the current market dynamics [5].

【一周一议】 （1）掘金"一带一路"与"西部大开发"的投资机遇。美国"对等关税"及全球应对措施，将重新影响全球经济预 期，我们认为无论地缘政治如何变化，内外大循环的正确路径没有变。在此框架下，"一带一路""西部大开发""西部 陆海新通道""新疆煤化工"等相关投资节奏可能趋强。2025 年高质量共建"一带一路"需重视，从时间、区域和投 资方向看均有重要意义；平陆运河助力广西出海口，对西南产业链及北部湾港影响重大；新时代西部大开发重点关注 新疆、西藏、四川、广西等地，新疆煤化工、西藏水电工程、四川交通基建等领域发展潜力大；水泥股一季报有望因 价格弹性和成本贡献（煤价）表现良好，近期水泥提价超预期，行业供需改善，且内需基建托底作用有望超预期。 （2）新材料加速国产替代，关注高纯石英砂、涂料、芳纶、碳纤维。4 月 4 日，国家市场监管总局因杜邦中国涉嫌违 反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，依法对其开展立案调查。重点梳理国产替代空间较大的新材料品种。①高纯石英砂， AI、HPC 等趋势下，高纯石英材料的发展需求乐观，美国矽比科和挪威 TQC 占据高市占率，国内石英股份处于起步阶 段、已获相关客户的半导体级高纯石英砂认证，并 ...

投资逻辑 手部边际变化未来变化的主要集中点，单台人形机器人所需微型丝杠数量有望达到 34-44 个。根据特斯拉公开信息， GEN3 灵巧手相比于 GEN2 的主要变化在于：（1）手部增加了自由度，从 11 提升到 22 个；（2）驱动器装载在了手腕部 位。若远指关节和近指关节耦合，则需要 17 个主动自由度，若不耦合则最多需要 22 个主动自由度；每个主动自由度 对应所需微型丝杠为 1 个。 手部承载力有待提升，丝杠是高承载力方案。当前灵巧手握力和承载力普遍低于 5KG，但据《2020 年中国成人健康调 查》，人手握力为 25KG 以上，支撑力可以达到自身体重的 60%-70%。机器人手若想全面实现通用性，则传动部件的承 载力亟待提升。其中承载力、传动效率和精度按排序看，丝杠综合能力高于腱绳和连杆，且滚柱丝杠>滚珠丝杠>梯形 丝杠，因此微型滚柱丝杠的具备较高的需求度，随着供应链的成熟提升性价比后，微型滚柱丝杠渗透率有望大幅提升。 当前成熟微型滚柱丝杠供应商较小，竞争格局较好。公开资料显示，目前上市公司中已经披露布局了手部微型丝杠业 务的包含浙江荣泰和五洲新春。其中浙江荣泰预备收购狄兹精密传动公司（KGG），该 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for SF Holding and Xingtong Co., Ltd. due to their strong performance and market positioning [1][2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector shows significant growth with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% in collection volume and 21.3% in delivery volume [1]. - The shipping industry faces challenges due to increased tariffs from the U.S., which may impact freight rates and demand in the long term [4]. - The aviation sector benefits from a drop in Brent crude oil prices, which enhances airline profitability, alongside a notable increase in passenger volume during the Qingming holiday [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The total collection volume for postal express reached approximately 3.824 billion pieces, with a month-on-month increase of 3.86% and a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1]. - SF Holding reported a revenue of 284.4 billion yuan for 2024, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 23.5% [1]. - The report recommends SF Holding based on valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [1]. Logistics - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while the China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) fell by 7.8% [2]. - Xingtong Co., Ltd. is recommended due to its strong market position and benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics demand [2]. Aviation - The average daily flight volume increased by 4.53% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.21% and international flights up by 20.71% [3]. - The passenger volume on April 4, 2025, was 1.789 million, an increase of 8.6% compared to the same day in 2024 [3]. - The report recommends China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit growth from optimized supply and demand dynamics [3]. Shipping - The external trade container freight index (CCFI) was 1102.71 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and 7.4% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the potential long-term impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation and demand, leading to a downward adjustment in freight rates [4]. Road and Rail - The total truck traffic on national highways reached 54.681 million vehicles, with a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 1.62% [5]. - The report notes that the dividend yield of major road operators exceeds the yield of China's ten-year government bonds, indicating good investment value [5].