【一周一议】 （1）掘金"一带一路"与"西部大开发"的投资机遇。美国"对等关税"及全球应对措施，将重新影响全球经济预 期，我们认为无论地缘政治如何变化，内外大循环的正确路径没有变。在此框架下，"一带一路""西部大开发""西部 陆海新通道""新疆煤化工"等相关投资节奏可能趋强。2025 年高质量共建"一带一路"需重视，从时间、区域和投 资方向看均有重要意义；平陆运河助力广西出海口，对西南产业链及北部湾港影响重大；新时代西部大开发重点关注 新疆、西藏、四川、广西等地，新疆煤化工、西藏水电工程、四川交通基建等领域发展潜力大；水泥股一季报有望因 价格弹性和成本贡献（煤价）表现良好，近期水泥提价超预期，行业供需改善，且内需基建托底作用有望超预期。 （2）新材料加速国产替代，关注高纯石英砂、涂料、芳纶、碳纤维。4 月 4 日，国家市场监管总局因杜邦中国涉嫌违 反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，依法对其开展立案调查。重点梳理国产替代空间较大的新材料品种。①高纯石英砂， AI、HPC 等趋势下，高纯石英材料的发展需求乐观，美国矽比科和挪威 TQC 占据高市占率，国内石英股份处于起步阶 段、已获相关客户的半导体级高纯石英砂认证，并 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 54.94% year-on-year, reaching 1.38 billion RMB in 2024, although it faced a net loss of 0.12 billion RMB, a decline of 108.21% compared to the previous year due to high R&D and share-based payment expenses [1][6]. - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to grow by 33.7% in 2024, reaching 49 billion USD, positioning it as the largest semiconductor equipment market globally. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to strong domestic demand for equipment [1][2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with expenses reaching 498 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.17%, indicating a commitment to advancing its technology [2][6]. - The company has developed a comprehensive range of detection equipment, with over 300 units of non-graphical wafer defect detection equipment delivered to more than 100 clients, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [2][6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 2.04 billion RMB, 2.95 billion RMB, and 3.83 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% respectively [3][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 108.21% due to high R&D and share-based payment costs [1][6]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to see continued growth in orders, supported by a strong domestic demand for semiconductor equipment, with a significant portion of the market currently dominated by U.S. companies [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with contract liabilities of 630 million RMB and inventory of 750 million RMB, indicating strong sales momentum [1][2]. R&D and Product Development - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, with expenses reaching 498 million RMB in 2024, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, reflecting a strategic focus on advanced technology [2][6]. - The company has successfully developed and delivered advanced detection equipment, enhancing its market position and ensuring competitiveness in the semiconductor industry [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.04 billion RMB, 2.95 billion RMB, and 3.83 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 54.94% year-on-year, reaching 1.38 billion RMB in 2024, although it faced a net loss of 0.12 billion RMB, a decline of 108.21% compared to the previous year due to high R&D and share-based payment expenses [1]. - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to grow by 33.7% in 2024, reaching 49 billion USD, positioning it as the largest semiconductor equipment market globally. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to strong domestic demand for equipment [1][2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 0.498 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.17%, which is higher than its revenue growth rate. This investment is aimed at advancing its technology and product offerings [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive range of detection equipment, with over 300 units of non-graphical wafer defect detection equipment delivered to more than 100 clients, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.037 billion RMB, 2.949 billion RMB, and 3.833 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.204 billion RMB, 0.346 billion RMB, and 0.594 billion RMB, with growth rates of 70% and 72% for the following years [3][6].

事件简介 4 月 4 日，因杜邦中国集团有限公司涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，市场监管总局依法对杜邦中国集团有限公 司开展立案调查。 事件分析 杜邦的反垄断调查将成为行业的标志性事件，高端材料领域国产企业加速。近期的连续事件具有非常明显的行业标志 性，4 月 2 日美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴设立最低 10%的最低基准关税，对中国加征 34%的关税；4 月 4 日，国务院关税 税则委员会办公室宣布自 2025 年4 月 10 日对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税， 同时将 16 家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，将 11 家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单等。在关税和反制关税发布的背 景下，杜邦的反垄断调查就更具有典型意义。我国是全球最大的化工产品市场，具有庞大的需求空间，伴随中国改革 开发，大批外资开始持续深耕中国市场，而近 20 年来，国内化工企业迅速崛起，已经能够形成大宗产品的充分自给， 并能够有效供给精细化工领域的中低端产品，较多海外企业难以维持有效的产品竞争力，转而在高端领域设立更多的 竞争壁垒，以维持竞争空间和利润空间。此次反垄断调查不仅仅标志，中国在化工高端材料的反制， ...

Industry Overview - Recent policies indicate a focus on supply-side reforms addressing "structural contradictions in key industries" rather than "overcapacity" issues[10] - The majority of industries in China face structural issues characterized by excess low-end capacity and insufficient high-end capacity[11] Capacity Utilization - As of Q4 2024, the industrial capacity utilization rate is at 65.9%, indicating that overcapacity is concentrated in specific industries[18] - Industries potentially facing overcapacity include non-metallic minerals, black metals, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automotive manufacturing, petroleum and coal, specialized equipment, food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals[37] Types of Overcapacity - Overcapacity can be categorized into frictional, cyclical, and structural types, with structural overcapacity being the most persistent and challenging to resolve[3] - Structural overcapacity is characterized by the coexistence of low-end overcapacity and high-end capacity shortages, often requiring government intervention for resolution[38] Key Industries Affected - The steel and cement industries are experiencing both cyclical and structural overcapacity due to a downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a projected reduction in steel production by 30-50 million tons[41] - Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries are facing frictional and structural overcapacity due to rapid technological advancements and local government competition[59] Policy Recommendations - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of inefficient capacity through supply-side reforms, focusing on both eliminating low-end capacity and expanding high-end supply[40] - Effective market mechanisms and government actions are necessary to address the "involution" competition in emerging industries, including the implementation of fair competition regulations[65] Risk Factors - Risks include the potential for slower-than-expected capacity elimination, a more severe downturn in the real estate market, and unexpected declines in exports[5]

子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：美国对等关税落地进一步释放光储板块贸易政策风险，美国市场壁垒利润长存，国际化布局优势企业迎 抄底良机；光伏玻璃 4 月新单温和涨价 0.5 元/平米，这一涨幅，是驱动头部企业盈利逐渐进入舒适区间、而二三线 企业投产/复产冲动仍被压制的最理想状态。 风电：一季度国内风电核准规模达 30.3GW，同比大幅增长 121%，"驭风行动"、"以大代小"、第三批"沙戈荒"大基 地项目在多个省份得到核准，重申我们对 2026 年陆风需求不会大幅下滑的判断；山东青岛 3GW 深远海项目正式立项、 青州七海风场正式全面施工、阳江三山岛柔直海缆开标，重点项目节点推进加速，持续推荐海风板块。 电网：1）《中国能源报》披露 25 年预计将投产"两交五直"特高压线路，未来几年可能开工"十六交十二直"，"十五 五"期间特高压有望保持高强度投资；2）国网 25 年输变电项目第二次变电设备招标公示，招标物资共 18 个分标， 521 个标包，输变电项目招标稳步推进；3）金盘科技、神马电力披露 2024 年度业绩报告，海外营收/订单高速增长。 新能源车：1）车企发布 3 月销量，零跑、理想表现均强势，比亚迪出 ...

当前成熟微型滚柱丝杠供应商较小，竞争格局较好。公开资料显示，目前上市公司中已经披露布局了手部微型丝杠业 务的包含浙江荣泰和五洲新春。其中浙江荣泰预备收购狄兹精密传动公司（KGG），该公司技术来源于全球微型丝杠龙 头日本 KSS，同时具备大关节丝杠、微型滚珠丝杠（直径 1.8mm 起）和微型滚柱丝杠（直径 4mm 起）的能力，具备多 年微型丝杠能力积累，具备较强先发优势。五洲新春 1H24 财务报告披露公司已经开始布局手部微型丝杠。 底层技术相通，后期具备大关节丝杠能力料将持续布局微型丝杠。微型丝杠当前主流技术方案为车铣磨工艺，当批量 量产时为实现规模降本，有望通过轧制（冷锻）、以车代磨、粉末冶金等方案进行批量降本。其中车铣磨擅长精度但速 度较慢，进口高精度内外螺纹磨床采购设备成本达上千万元/台，因此亟待提升性价比。根据《行星滚柱丝杠滚柱冷 滚压成形机理与实验研究》，轧制丝杠优点在于加工效率是车铣磨效率的近 10 倍，且螺纹的表面光洁度较高，噪声较 小。以车代磨和粉末冶金在精度要求较低的情况下性价比极高。 最终工艺选择主要取决于性价比和机器人所需微型丝杠精度。当前机器人灵巧手尚在优化过程中，若算法能力持续迭 代 ...

我国总体处于净出口状态，海外价格大涨确定性大。对于轻稀土镨钕，进口矿占总供给 22%左右；前文已测算直接出 口占比 18%，但考虑以产成品形态（空调、两轮电动车、新能车等情况）出口情况，我们认为直接+间接出口量或超过 进口量，因此镨钕角度出发，我国处于净出口状态。对于重稀土镝、铽，因缅甸矿扰动持续，导致重稀土亦转向净出 口状态。因而综合评判下来，出口管制将带来海外稀土价格显著上升。 国内价格：原料紧缺有支撑。稀土目前由于国内供改+缅甸局势动荡导致供应停滞，海外原料供应紧缺已经出现，对 内盘价格支撑强（去年 9 月锑出口管制，但由于长协存在进口量于 25 年 2 月才出现显著下滑，锑价于 2 月末恢复上 涨）。国内原矿配额增长预期较为温和，因而国内价格支撑较强。 价格推演：或出现内外同涨。由于出口管制，海外钕铁硼供应收紧，外盘钕铁硼连带稀土价格直接上涨；我国出口或 面临压力，但原料紧缺率先出现，内盘价格有支撑。类比锑，后续出口逐步放行，或出口形态发生转变（直接以产成 品出口），内盘价格亦有望上涨；海外稀土供应链极其脆弱，因而恐慌性备货下"内外同涨"局面有望出现。 缅甸扰动持续。2025 年 1-2 月我国缅甸矿 ...

事件 4 月 4 日，杜邦中国涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，国家市场监管总局依法对该公司开展立案调查。本文重点梳理 国产替代空间较大的新材料品种。 1、高纯石英砂 高纯度石英材料是半导体芯片制程中的关键耗材，在芯片制造过程的扩散、刻蚀等环节发挥重要作用。据测算，每生产 1 亿美元的电子信息产品，平均就需要消耗价值 50 万美元的高纯石英材料，在 AI、HPC 等趋势下，高纯石英材料的需求趋 势较为乐观。但另一方面，美国矽比科（前身尤尼明）、挪威 TQC 拥有极高市占率，国内龙头石英股份仍处于起步阶段，公 司将持续推动对半导体石英材料终端晶圆制造商及半导体设备商的产品认证和市场推广，培育新增长点。石英股份 2025 年 2 月投资者问答表述"相关客户对我们半导体级高纯石英砂认证已完成，并有一定量的订单"。 2、芳纶及芳纶纸 芳纶是世界三大高性能纤维之一，广泛应用于军事国防、安全防护、航空航天、环保、电子电气材料等领域。1960 年代最 早由美国杜邦公司实现工业化，当前商业化生产主要是间位芳纶（1313）、对位芳纶（1414）。截止 2024 上半年，芳纶全球 产能约 15-17 万吨，需求 12-13 万 ...

行情回顾： ◼ 本周（3.31-4.4）上证综指下跌 0.28%，创业板指下跌 2.95%。公用事业板块上涨 2.96%，煤炭板块上涨 1.35%, 碳中和板块上涨 0.53%，环保板块上涨 0.11%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电板块：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。核电板块：建议关注核电龙头企业中国核电。新能源 板块：建议关注新能源运营商龙头龙源电力（H）。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 工业燃料领域用气量在 2023 年天然气消费总量中占比近 42%，在天然气下游消费中占据重要地位。天然气在工 业领域主要用于工业窑炉和工业锅炉，广泛应用于陶瓷、玻璃、钢铁等行业。在该领域，天然气的主要替代能源 为煤炭。9M13，国务院印发《大气污染防治行动计划》，拉开工业领域"煤改气"的序幕。但天然气保障供应能 力的瓶颈和煤气经济性对比致使工业领域"煤改气"的进程反复，但也变相使得工业燃料用能方面具备一定煤气 转换的灵活性。 ◼ 综合《工业窑炉燃料发生炉煤气与天然气的对比分析》 ...