主要市场及行业指数表现 过去一个月，国内主要市场指数涨跌不一，上证 50 上涨 1.01%，中证 500、沪深 300、中证 1000、国证 2000 分别下 跌-0.04%、-0.07%、-0.70%、-0.84%。行业指数下跌偏多，在中信一级行业中有 13 个行业上涨，有色金属、家电、 煤炭、银行、国防军工等行业指数涨幅靠前，其中有色金属行业指数涨幅最大，月涨幅达 7.46%。电子、房地产、计 算机的行业指数涨跌幅靠后，月涨跌幅分别为-4.34%、-4.58%、-5.61%。 行业因子与行业轮动策略表现 三月因子表现分化，整体来看盈利、质量和超预期因子表现较好，IC 均值分别达到了 39.70%、 31.28%和 5.52%；收 益方面同样是盈利、质量和超预期因子能带来正的多空收益，分别达到 1.86%、2.57%和 0.82%；相对中信一级行业等 权基准的多头超额收益方面，盈利、质量和调研活动因子也分别达到 0.94%、1.85%和 1.15%。今年以来，盈利、分析 师预期和超预期因子的 IC 均值分别达到 11.79%、7.43%和 7.21%，表现较好；因子多空收益方面，盈利、质量和超预 期因子分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on semiconductor self-control, core computing hardware, Apple supply chain, and AI-driven beneficiary industries [3][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of the 34% tariff imposed by the US on semiconductor imports from China, which is expected to accelerate the decoupling of the global semiconductor supply chain from the US [2][5]. - It highlights opportunities in domestic high-end semiconductor equipment and components, as well as the potential for domestic companies to replace imported parts [2][3]. - The report expresses a relatively optimistic view on the Apple supply chain, noting that the impact of tariffs can be managed through self-developed components and ongoing innovation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariffs, leading to increased domestic production and innovation [2][3]. - Key companies to watch include North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others involved in high-end semiconductor equipment and components [3][7]. Consumer Electronics - The report indicates that the impact of tariffs on the Apple supply chain is manageable, with Apple transitioning to self-developed chips to mitigate costs [6][7]. - The demand for AI-related products, such as smart glasses and wearables, is anticipated to grow, driven by companies like Xiaomi and ByteDance [3][7]. PCB and Components - The PCB industry is showing signs of recovery, with demand driven by sectors like home appliances and automotive, alongside AI applications [8]. - The report notes that the pricing of LCD panels is increasing due to policies promoting upgrades, which is expected to support the overall market [22]. Storage and Memory - The report highlights a positive outlook for the memory sector, with NAND prices expected to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and increased AI infrastructure investments [24][25]. - Companies involved in storage modules and AI-driven storage solutions are recommended for investment [25]. Advanced Packaging and Equipment - The demand for advanced packaging is on the rise, with significant capital expenditures expected from major players like TSMC to support growth [27]. - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to experience substantial growth, particularly in China, with investments exceeding $100 billion over the next three years [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, indicating an expected fluctuation within -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The imposition of a 34% tariff by China on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, will significantly impact the prices and supply of ethane and propane, which are primarily imported from the U.S. [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to export 492 thousand barrels per day of ethane, with 227 thousand barrels per day (46%) going to China, highlighting China's heavy reliance on U.S. imports [2] - For propane, China is expected to import 29.32 million tons in 2024, with 17.31 million tons (59%) sourced from the U.S., indicating a high dependency on U.S. propane imports [2] - The increase in tariffs will likely lead to higher raw material costs for downstream products such as ethylene, polyethylene (PE), and propylene, resulting in price increases for these products [2] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the operational status of domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) facilities and ethane cracking units, as well as the price trends of relevant raw materials and products [2] Summary by Sections Section: Industry Analysis - The U.S. is the largest supplier of ethane and propane to China, and the new tariffs will significantly affect import prices and supply dynamics [2] - China's crude oil and natural gas imports from the U.S. are relatively small, with only 1.74% of crude oil and 5.73% of LNG imports coming from the U.S., suggesting limited impact on refining product prices [3] - The report notes that the price and supply of downstream petrochemical products like PX and PTA will be less affected by the tariffs compared to gas-based products [3] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report advises continuous monitoring of the price and operational rates of chemical raw materials and products due to the unpredictable nature of international political events affecting the market [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong investment outlook for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the resilience against tariff risks and highlighting opportunities in domestic substitution [13]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from ongoing innovations, particularly in the areas of innovative drugs and certain generic drugs, with potential catalysts from policy changes and upcoming data releases from major conferences [15]. - The report identifies key areas of focus, including blood products, certain medical devices, and innovative patented drugs, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic demand-driven sectors such as chain pharmacies and traditional Chinese medicine [13][15]. Summary by Sections Tariff Environment and Pharmaceutical Sector - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector has a strong capacity to withstand tariff risks, with a focus on domestic substitution opportunities [13]. - In 2024, China's pharmaceutical import and export trade is projected to reach $199.376 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports declining by 2% [12][13]. Drug Sector Developments - Significant advancements in IgA nephropathy treatments are noted, with major pharmaceutical companies like Otsuka and Novartis making progress in drug approvals [20][24]. - Otsuka's IgAN drug Sibeprenlimab has been submitted for FDA approval, while Novartis's drug Atrasentan has received accelerated approval for treating IgAN [20][24]. Biopharmaceuticals - Eli Lilly's siRNA therapy Lepodisiran has shown promising results in reducing lipoprotein(a) levels, a significant cardiovascular risk factor [27][32]. - The report highlights multiple innovative drugs targeting lipoprotein(a) that are currently in clinical trials, indicating a growing focus on this area [33]. Medical Devices - The report discusses the National Medical Products Administration's initiatives to support high-end medical device innovation, which is expected to drive growth in areas such as surgical robots and advanced imaging equipment [36]. - Key players in the medical device sector are anticipated to benefit from these supportive policies [36]. Medical Services - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the medical services sector, with solid performance reported by companies like Gushengtang and Times Angel [42]. - Gushengtang reported a 30% increase in revenue, reflecting strong growth in its offline medical institutions [42]. Traditional Chinese Medicine and Pharmacies - Yunnan Baiyao and Tongrentang are highlighted for their stable growth and high dividend payouts, with Yunnan Baiyao achieving a revenue increase of 2.36% [46][48]. - The report suggests that the pharmacy sector is recovering from previous policy impacts, with expectations for steady growth in the coming year [50].

摘要 | 海外市场行情回顾 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | ChatGPT 和 Gemini 热度上升明显 | | 4 | | HBM 挤压利基存储供给，Flash Wafer 周度涨幅环比下滑 | | 6 | | SK 海力士表示最快将在 HBM4E 中应用混合键合 | | 6 | | 高通官宣手机新一代旗舰芯片 | | 6 | | 消费电子动态 | | 8 | | 国内智能手机市场销量继续同比增长 | | 8 | | 2 PC 市场回暖 | 月 | 9 | | 风险提示 | | 9 | 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - ChatGPT 和 Gemini 因新模型及功能发布，访问量环比增长约 15%；国内 ChatGLM 受益于新模型发布，环比激增超 100%。即梦 AI 发布 3.0 版本，提升中文文字和图像生成能力；Runway 推出 Gen-4 模型，强调媒体生成的世界一 致性；阿里云通义千问 Qwen2.5-Omni 模型登顶 Hugging Face 榜单，支持多模态输入及实时文本语音输出 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

证券板块 券商板块 2025 年一季度业绩底部回升趋势明确，有望迎来业绩与估值双提升。从核心业务线来看：1）经纪业务受益 于市场交投回暖，Q1 日均股基成交额达 1.77 万亿元，同比增幅 72.1%，叠加权益类公募新发份额同比翻倍至 1101 亿 份；2）投行业务呈现结构性增长，股权融资中 IPO 规模同比收缩 30%至 165 亿元，再融资规模增长 59%至 1383 亿元， 债券承销规模以 17%的同比增速提升至 3.25 万亿元；3）信用业务维持高景气度，2025 年以来全市场两融余额日均值 达 1.88 万亿元，同比增长 21%。在 2024 年同期低基数效应与当前市场环境改善的双重驱动下，预计券商板块一季度 业绩同比增速有望实现显著跃升，叠加资本市场改革深化带来的估值修复空间，板块配置价值逐步凸显。 投资建议：券商和多元板块建议关注四条主线：（1）四川双马：科技赛道占优+退出渠道改善，业绩弹性可期。公司管 理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟（半导体材料，2024/12/24 状态更新为已问询）、邦德激光（高端装备，2024/1/3 进行 上市辅导备案）、屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群 ...

Investment Rating - The SW Machinery Equipment Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.26%, ranking 2nd among 31 primary industry classifications [15]. Core Insights - The domestic demand for construction machinery continues to recover, with March's average working hours for major products at 90.1 hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.53% [24]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic engineering machinery to enter a recovery phase, driven by demand for small excavators and long-cycle replacement needs [24]. - The report emphasizes the impact of renewed trade tensions, suggesting a focus on self-sufficient investment opportunities in high-end industrial machinery [24]. - The exoskeleton robot industry is accelerating, with a projected market size growth from $900 million in 2022 to $14.67 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 42.2% [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Shantui, Kede CNC, Huazhong CNC, and Zhenjiang [12]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.51% over the last week, ranking 26th among 31 primary industry classifications [13]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, indicating steady recovery in manufacturing post-holiday [23]. - Excavator sales in February reached 19,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.8% [36]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 5.1% year-on-year increase in railway fixed asset investment and a 6.4% increase in passenger volume, indicating a recovery in railway equipment demand [44]. - The report mentions a decline in shipbuilding prices, with the Shanghai 20mm shipbuilding plate price at 3,810 yuan/ton, down 1.8% month-on-month [47]. - Brent crude oil prices have stabilized around $74 per barrel, with OPEC+ members maintaining plans to gradually restore output [52].

美国"对等关税"落地，家电无惧扰动 特朗普宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，拟对中国再加征 34%。4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关 于 "对等关税"的行政令，1）宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征 10%的"最低基准关税"，预计 4 月 5 日生效，2）并对一些 贸易伙伴征收更高的额外关税，预计 4 月 9 日生效。其中，对中国、欧盟、日本、越南、印度等美国主要贸易国分别 加征 34%、20%、24%、46%、26%，超出市场预期，但对符合美墨加贸易协定的商品免征关税，好于前期预测。 对等关税力度、广度超出预期，针对特定国家的额外关税距离执行尚有一定时间，具体落地时间、实际加征关税幅度 等关键事项仍有博弈空间，后续需观察各国谈判结果。我们认为无需忧虑，我国家电行业依然具有强竞争优势。1） 供应链角度来看，我国家电产能短期难有替代。在三大白电的核心部件压缩机和电机市场中，中国产能份额达 70%以 上。在黑电领域，海信视像与 TCL 电子全球市占率领先，全球 TV 代工前十大厂商均为中国公司。海外供应链体系成 熟度低于我国，短期内美国难以找到替代性产能，预计对中国产能依赖度仍会较高。2）新兴市场已成为我国家 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment trend in the automotive sector, particularly in the fields of intelligent driving and humanoid robots, which are seen as the most significant industrial trends post-electrification [4]. Core Insights - WeRide, in collaboration with Uber and the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, is set to launch the first robotaxi service in Dubai, marking a significant step in the global commercialization of autonomous driving technology [1][10]. - The implementation of the new Beijing Autonomous Driving Vehicle Regulations allows L4 level vehicles to operate on public roads, paving the way for the commercial application of autonomous driving technology [2][11]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in the intelligent driving sector, with a projected surge in the penetration rate of high-level autonomous driving technologies and robotaxi services, driving demand for high-performance chips, lidar, and optical components [4]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving - WeRide partners with Uber and the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority to launch robotaxi services in Dubai, showcasing advancements in autonomous driving technology [1][10]. - The new Beijing regulations support the use of L4 autonomous vehicles for various transportation services, facilitating the commercial application of autonomous driving [2][11]. - Black Sesame Technology reports a 51.8% revenue increase in 2024, achieving profitability with a gross margin rise to 41.1%, indicating successful scaling and cost reduction [3][12]. - The first batch of SenseTime's J6M autonomous driving solutions has been mass-produced, promoting the widespread adoption of intelligent driving features [4][13]. - RoboSense's lidar technology supports the deployment of autonomous vehicles in Dubai, marking a significant milestone in the global expansion of robotaxi services [4][14]. Robotics - Figure has demonstrated significant improvements in robotic hand stability and precision in real-world applications at BMW factories, indicating advancements in industrial automation [2][44]. - Unitree Technology has launched the Unitree Dex5 dexterous hand, featuring 20 degrees of freedom and enhanced capabilities for complex tasks, showcasing progress in robotic manipulation [3][46]. - Pudu Robotics has introduced the world's first commercial humanoid service robot, "Lightning Box Arm," capable of performing complex tasks in various environments [2][31]. - Agility Robotics has secured $400 million in funding, reflecting strong investor interest in humanoid robotics [2][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of humanoid robots in the AI landscape, with a shift from a few dominant players to a more diversified market in 2025 [4].