Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock, corresponding to potential upside of 18% and 17% respectively [3][5][7]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to enter a significant year for new product sales, with the introduction of the second brand, ONVO, and the third brand, Firefly, which will enhance the product matrix and broaden price coverage [3][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining the high-end brand positioning of its main brand, NIO, and has reduced promotional efforts to improve profit margins. The gross margin for NIO is projected to continue increasing [3][4]. - Operating leverage is anticipated to manifest gradually, with operating and net losses expected to narrow over the coming quarters [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q3 2023, NIO's gross margin reached 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, driven by cost optimization and improved manufacturing efficiency [4][10]. - The company aims to double its vehicle sales in 2024, with production capacity for the ONVO L60 expected to ramp up to 20,000 units per month by March 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin target for the NIO brand is set to reach 15% in Q4 2023 and gradually increase to 20% in 2024, while the ONVO brand aims for a gross margin of 10% [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 66.1 billion and RMB 102.0 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 54% [6][12]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a sales multiple of 0.8x to NIO's 2025 automotive and other sales, leading to a target price of $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock [5][15]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for NIO is 0.7x, indicating an attractive valuation [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 108 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40.8% from the current price of 76.7 HKD [6][14]. Core Insights - The recent surge in popularity of the Labubu IP is expected to drive accelerated revenue growth in Q4 2024, enhancing the company's long-term growth outlook and market confidence [2][3]. - The Monsters series has seen a significant increase in popularity, with a 292% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2024, contributing to 13.7% of total revenue and ranking second among all IPs [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its long-term growth forecast for overseas markets upward, reflecting a more optimistic view of future revenue streams [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from 4,617 million RMB in 2022 to 22,156 million RMB in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate peaking at 96.7% in 2024 [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 476 million RMB in 2022 to 5,547 million RMB in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 140.1% in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 204.9x in 2022 to 17.2x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Atour Group (ATAT.US) and raises the target price to $31.5, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of $25.6 [4][9][22]. Core Insights - Atour Group's revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 1.899 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, exceeding expectations. The growth was driven by rapid store expansion and strong performance in retail business, particularly the Atour Planet brand, which saw a 104% increase in revenue [1][2]. - The company has net opened 140 new stores in Q3 2024, setting a new record for quarterly openings, and has raised its full-year store opening target to 450 [1][3]. - Despite a decline in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) of 10.5% in Q3 2024 due to high base effects and adverse weather, the report anticipates a narrowing of this decline in Q4 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 1.899 billion, with a 46.7% year-on-year growth. Franchise hotel revenue was RMB 1.179 billion, up 51%, while retail revenue reached RMB 480 million, growing 104% [1][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was RMB 380 million, a 47.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Store Expansion - The company has net opened 360 new stores in 2024, with a target of 450 for the year. Management is confident in reaching 2,000 stores by 2025 [1][3]. Revenue Projections - The report projects that Atour Group's full-year revenue target for 2024, which is set to grow by 48%-52%, is likely to be exceeded due to strong performance in both accommodation and retail segments [3][9]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 was 41.5%, with a slight decline attributed to increased sales expenses [9][10]. - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upward for 2024-2026 based on better-than-expected performance and accelerated store expansion [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AppLovin (APP.US) with a target price raised to $394, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of $321.19 [1][21]. Core Views - AppLovin's stock has increased over 700% year-to-date, making it one of the highest-performing stocks in the U.S. market. The company is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on November 18, 2024, which is expected to enhance its liquidity and visibility [1]. - The report highlights the company's strong Q3 2024 performance and the potential for a revaluation of its stock as its brand awareness increases, which could lower customer acquisition costs and support future business expansion [1]. - The report emphasizes AppLovin's leading position in the mobile gaming advertising sector, supported by a comprehensive product ecosystem that includes AppDiscovery, MAX, and Adjust, which create synergistic effects [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24E, AppLovin is projected to achieve revenues of $2,817 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $1,063 million, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [5][7]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 2024 reached 78%, and the overall free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 76%, indicating strong profitability and cash generation capabilities [1]. Business Growth Drivers - The introduction of the AI advertising engine AXON 2.0 has led to a 66% year-over-year growth in advertising revenue, with a 17% quarter-over-quarter acceleration [1]. - The company is expanding into the e-commerce sector, which is expected to significantly increase its market potential. Initial tests in this area have shown promising results, comparable to social customer acquisition channels [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report raises the valuation of AppLovin's advertising business to 45x 2025E EV/EBITDA, aligning it with the average valuation of large advertising platforms and AI concept stocks [1]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are robust, with expected increases of 39.7% in FY24E and 19.3% in FY25E [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices set at $15.2 for XPEV.US (potential upside of 22%) and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK (potential upside of 18%) [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is entering a strong product cycle, with expected vehicle deliveries reaching 30,000 units in November, supported by strong order performance for models M03 and P7+. This positions the company for significant sales growth in 2024 and 2025, with revised sales forecasts of 188,000 units and 400,000 units respectively [1][2]. - The automotive gross margin has shown continuous improvement, reaching 8.6% in Q3 2024, benefiting from product mix enhancements and supply chain cost reductions. The company anticipates a 21% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to launch four new models and several refreshed versions next year, aiming to sustain sales growth. Additionally, overseas sales have increased by approximately 70% quarter-over-quarter, contributing to 15% of total sales [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 40.53 billion in 2024, RMB 74.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 140.165 billion in 2026, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 32%, 84%, and 88% respectively [4][16]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 14.2% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025, and 16.9% in 2026, reflecting the positive impact of new platform models [4][16]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 18.5 billion in Q3 2024, although this represents a significant year-over-year decrease [2][4]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.3x for automotive sales and 2.1x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $15.2 for XPEV.US and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Shangmei Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 44.0, indicating a potential upside of 41.9% from the current price of HKD 31.0 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a leading domestic cosmetics company that has successfully implemented a multi-brand strategy, with its flagship brand, Han Shu, achieving significant growth through targeted marketing on platforms like Douyin [1][2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on the lower-tier markets, which is expected to drive future growth, supported by its diverse product offerings across skincare, baby care, and hair care segments [1][2][3]. - The report highlights the successful alignment of Han Shu's consumer profile with Douyin's user demographics, leveraging innovative marketing strategies such as short dramas to enhance brand visibility and sales [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Multi-Brand Strategy - Shangmei Co., Ltd. has been practicing a multi-brand strategy for nearly 20 years, with its main revenue coming from the Han Shu brand, which has recently dominated the Douyin platform [2][3][4]. - The company aims to develop multiple brands across different consumer segments, from mass to premium, enhancing its market influence [2][3][4]. Channel and Consumer Alignment - Han Shu's success on Douyin is attributed to its alignment with the platform's user demographics, particularly targeting consumers aged 18-34 in lower-tier cities [3][4][5]. - The brand has effectively utilized short drama marketing to regain consumer attention and drive sales, achieving significant viewership and engagement [3][4][5]. Growth Potential - Despite concerns about reliance on a single channel and brand, the report suggests that Shangmei's strategies, including expanding into other channels and enhancing its product lines, will support long-term growth [3][4][5]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growing lower-tier market, which represents a significant portion of China's population and consumer spending [3][4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 7,031 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.8% [6][11][141]. - The report anticipates improvements in profit margins, with gross margins expected to reach 74.7% by 2026 [6][11][141]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 44.0 is based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a discount compared to leading domestic cosmetics brands [4][5][118].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to $14, reflecting a potential upside of 6% from the current price of $13.26 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 20.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.2%, which aligns with expectations and prior guidance, primarily due to weak industry demand. The gross margin improved to 24.0%, with an adjusted net margin of 6.3% [2]. - The company completed a $275 million share buyback in Q3 2024 and approved a new $1 billion buyback plan, indicating a commitment to enhancing long-term shareholder returns by allocating over 75% of adjusted net profit for 2025 towards buybacks or dividends [2]. - The report highlights a cautious outlook for Q4 2024, projecting revenue between RMB 31.2 billion and RMB 32.9 billion, which corresponds to a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% to 5% [3]. Financial Projections - The updated financial model forecasts the following revenue and profit figures (in RMB million): - FY24E Revenue: 107,103 - FY25E Revenue: 107,647 - Adjusted Net Profit FY24E: 8,656 - Adjusted Net Profit FY25E: 8,815 - Target PE for FY24E: 6.2x, FY25E: 6.0x [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades JD com (9618 HK/JD US) to a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 162/USD 42 [4][5] Core Views - JD com's core categories, particularly digital appliances, are benefiting from the trade-in policy, driving a recovery in sales [4] - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 260 4 billion, up 5 1% YoY, with digital appliances growing 2 7% YoY [4] - Daily necessities revenue grew 8 0% YoY, with supermarket, apparel, and sports/outdoor categories achieving double-digit growth [4] - Active users grew double-digit YoY for four consecutive quarters, with a 20% YoY increase in shopping users during Double 11 [4] - Q3 2024 gross margin reached 17 3%, up 1 7pp YoY, with adjusted net profit growing 24% YoY to RMB 13 2 billion [5] - JD Retail's operating margin improved by 2 6pp YoY to 5 2%, while JD Logistics' operating margin increased by 4 0pp YoY to 4 7% [5] - The company repurchased USD 3 9 billion in Q3 2024, totaling USD 3 6 billion in the first three quarters [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 5 7% YoY in Q4 2024, with full-year revenue projected at RMB 1,135 4 billion for FY24E [4][7] - Gross profit is forecasted to reach RMB 178 3 billion in FY24E, up 11 7% YoY [7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow 27 4% YoY to RMB 44 8 billion in FY24E [7] - The company aims for a high single-digit net profit margin in the long term, driven by economies of scale, product mix optimization, and 3P contributions [5] Valuation and Market Expectations - The target price of HKD 162/USD 42 implies a 10x FY24E P/E ratio [5] - The current price of HKD 137 2/USD 35 19 offers a potential upside of 18%/19% [8] - The 52-week price range for JD com is HKD 81 55-192 3/USD 20 8-47 8 [8] Industry Context - The report covers JD com within the broader internet and e-commerce sector, highlighting its competitive positioning and growth drivers [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba Group [5][17]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY2Q25 revenue reached RMB 236.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, slightly below market expectations by 1%. Adjusted net profit was RMB 36.5 billion, down 9% year-on-year, but better than market expectations by 3% [3][5]. - The Taobao and Tmall segment showed stable growth with a revenue increase of 1% to RMB 99 billion, driven by a double-digit growth in order volume. The average order value decreased, but the number of buyers reached a historical high during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [4]. - The international e-commerce segment saw a significant revenue increase of 29% to RMB 31.7 billion, primarily driven by the AliExpress Choice business [4]. - Cloud business revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to RMB 29.6 billion, with public cloud products experiencing double-digit growth and AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth. The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 9% [5]. Financial Summary - FY25E revenue forecast is adjusted to RMB 990.5 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 140.7 billion. For FY26E, revenue is projected at RMB 1,064.4 billion and net profit at RMB 145.4 billion [5][7]. - The adjusted target price is set at HKD 91 and USD 94, corresponding to FY25E/FY26E P/E ratios of 11.6x and 11.2x respectively [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, predicting a sales volume of approximately 12 million units in 2024 [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of high-end and intelligent transformation among Chinese NEV brands continues to be a dominant theme, with significant participation from both domestic and international automakers at major auto shows [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new product launches and strategic adjustments by key players like BYD, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, which are expected to drive sales growth in the upcoming year [7][9]. Summary by Sections Auto Show Insights - The 2024 Guangzhou Auto Show featured 1,171 vehicles, with 512 being new energy vehicles, showcasing a strong interest in NEVs [5]. - Notable new models included Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra, BYD's "Xia" series, and various models from NIO and Li Auto, indicating a robust competitive landscape [6][9]. Market Trends - The report anticipates that the demand for NEVs will strengthen from the second quarter of 2024, driven by government policies and market dynamics [10]. - The penetration rate of NEVs is expected to continue rising, contributing to industry growth in 2025 [10].