消费行业 | 行业点评 中国运动服饰行业：如何在疲弱的市场需 求以及复杂的消费趋势下寻找投资机遇？ 在整体经济增速放缓、消费力下降、终端需求减弱的大环境下，中国运动 服饰行业的短期消费趋势变得复杂而又微妙。不同区域市场、不同价格带 的产品、不同细分赛道所呈现出的消费趋势可能大相径庭。基于我们近期 的观察和理解，我们总结了中国运动服饰行业短期的一些消费趋势，以及 潜在受益于这些趋势的玩家。 市场需求疲软，但品牌更加聚焦折扣与库存的稳定：消费力下降对于中国 运动服饰消费市场的终端需求带来负面影响，行业整体的终端流水表现 较弱。根据我们的调研，各个品牌 7 月的流水预计维持 6 月较弱的趋势。 然而，我们观察到1H24主要玩家的终端零售折扣同比去年并未大幅加深， 反而有小幅的改善。同时，截至 1H24 末，大部分中国运动服饰玩家的渠 道库存相较 2023 年底都有不同程度的下降。这意味着大部分玩家在较弱 的市场环境下依然聚焦折扣的稳定与渠道库存的健康，从而保障稳健的 基本面与利润率。 性价比对专业运动品类在中低线市场的重要性日渐凸显：我们认为，性 价比、产品力、品牌力是国产运动服饰产品在当前市场环境下取得成功的 三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla with a target price of $210.8, indicating a potential decline of 14% from the current price of $246.4 [1][3]. Core Insights - The revenue for Q2 2024 slightly exceeded expectations at $25.5 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%, primarily driven by significant growth in the energy segment [1][6]. - The operating profit for Q2 2024 was below expectations, with a net profit of $1.478 billion, a 45% decline year-on-year, despite a 31% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][6]. - The company anticipates the launch of a low-cost model in the first half of 2025, with expected deliveries exceeding 60,000 units next year and a significant increase in subsequent years [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024E revenue is projected at $97.555 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1%. The net profit is expected to drop to $7.139 billion, reflecting a 53% decline [2][7]. - For 2025E, revenue is forecasted at $112.792 billion, with a 16% growth, and net profit is expected to recover to $10.658 billion, a 50% increase [2][7]. - By 2026E, revenue is projected to reach $139.660 billion, with a 24% growth, and net profit is expected to be $15.232 billion, reflecting a 43% increase [2][7]. - **Key Financial Metrics**: - Q2 2024 gross margin was 18.0%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The operating expense ratio increased by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a decrease in operating profit margin to 6.3% [6]. Valuation - The valuation of Tesla is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, assigning target P/E ratios of 65.0x for automotive sales, 45.0x for automotive leasing, and 35.0x for services and other businesses, resulting in a target price of $210.8 [1][8].

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Pop Mart with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 51.3, implying a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 40.2 [1] - The target price is derived using a DCF valuation method, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages [1] Core Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is a leader in China's trendy toy industry, benefiting from its strong IP incubation and monetization capabilities, which drive its global expansion [1] - The company has three key advantages: 1) industry leadership in a high-growth segment, 2) competitive moat through IP incubation and monetization, and 3) a well-developed omnichannel sales network [1] - Pop Mart's overseas expansion is gaining momentum, reducing its reliance on the Chinese market and providing a new growth driver [1] IP Incubation and Monetization - Pop Mart operates as an integrated IP platform, covering the entire value chain from IP acquisition, incubation, product design, production, to sales and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company has built a rich portfolio of over 40 artist IPs, with 10 IPs generating over RMB 100 million in sales each, reducing reliance on any single IP [8][12] - Pop Mart's IP monetization is supported by a diversified product portfolio, including blind boxes, figurines, BJDs, plush toys, and building blocks, catering to various consumer needs [17][18][23] Sales Network and DTC Strategy - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive omnichannel sales network, covering both offline (retail stores, robot stores, exhibitions) and online (Tmall, JD, Douyin, and its own app) channels [34][35] - The company's DTC (direct-to-consumer) strategy accounts for 88% of total revenue, enabling better consumer interaction, data collection, and personalized shopping experiences [44][45] - As of 2023, Pop Mart has 3,435 million registered members in mainland China, with a member repurchase rate of 50% and member sales contributing 92% of total revenue [46] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its overseas presence, with 80 retail stores and 159 robot stores in over 20 countries and regions as of 2023 [48][50] - Overseas revenue grew at a CAGR of over 140% from 2021 to 2023, reaching RMB 1.07 billion and accounting for 17% of total revenue in 2023 [51][52] - The company's overseas strategy includes localized product offerings, collaborations with global IPs (e.g., Marvel, Disney), and the establishment of overseas supply chains, such as its factory in Vietnam [54][55] Financial Performance and Outlook - Pop Mart's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 6.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.1 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.6% [56] - Overseas revenue is projected to grow faster than domestic revenue, increasing from RMB 1.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.7 billion in 2026, driven by continued market expansion [57] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 61.3% in 2023 to 65.0% in 2026, supported by cost optimization and economies of scale [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18, representing a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 13.98 [3][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's core business is expected to achieve steady growth, with a projected revenue increase of 48% year-on-year to RMB 4.25 billion in Q2, aligning with previous expectations. Accommodation revenue is anticipated to grow by 14%, while transportation ticketing revenue is expected to rise by 16%. The vacation business revenue is projected to reach RMB 720 million [3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 is forecasted to grow by 4.1% year-on-year to RMB 620 million, with an adjusted net profit margin declining by 6.2 percentage points to 14.5% due to lower profit margins in vacation services and increased investment in overseas operations [3]. - The summer travel demand remains strong, with the Civil Aviation Administration predicting a total passenger transport volume of 133 million during the summer, a 10% increase compared to 2019. International travel demand is robust, and the supply chain for international hotels has largely recovered to 2019 levels [3]. - The report highlights that average prices for flights and hotels have decreased year-on-year, which is expected to stimulate travel demand and support sustainable growth in the industry [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company have been slightly adjusted, with 2024E revenue estimated at RMB 17.509 billion, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.37% from previous forecasts. The gross profit is projected at RMB 11.883 billion, with a gross margin of 67.9% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 2.507 billion, with a net profit margin of 14.3% [6]. Market Context - The report notes that the recent changes in industry average valuations have led to the adjustment of the target price to HKD 18, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15x for 2024E and 12x for 2025E [3][4].

三中全会决定解读及市场策略： 7 月 21 日，《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的 决定》公布，重点部署未来五年的重大改革举措。若接下来的政治局会 议有更多利好政策出台，将有利于提振市场情绪。我们预期短期市场或 以结构性行情为主，中期可持续关注符合全会重点改革方向的投资主线。 主线一：发展新质生产力。 会议指出，"健全因地制宜发展新质生产 力体制机制。鼓励和规范发展天使投资、风险投资、私募股权投资， 更好发挥政府投资基金作用，发展耐心资本。"我们预计，新一代信 息技术、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、新材料、高端装备、生物医 药、量子科技等领域有望成为中国经济增长的新引擎，有望在中长期 获得超额收益，建议可以逢低布局相关行业和龙头公司。 浦银国际研究 明确改革重点方向， 会议明确改革重点方向，并确立中期投资主线。 根据我们的首席宏 观分析师金晓雯，在中长期改革方面，会议强调在稳中求进的工作总 基调下实现经济的高质量发展，并统筹好发展和安全的关系。建设"高 水平市场经济体制"或是改革的重中之重。经过我们的回测与分析， 历次三中全会结束后，短期港股较 A 股表现相对更佳，小盘成长风格 赢率较高，A ...

Investment Rating - Reiterated "Buy" rating for Sunny Optical with a target price of HKD 57.0, implying an 18% upside potential [2] Core Views - Sunny Optical is benefiting from the recovery in smartphone demand, driving growth in its core optical business [2] - The company's 1H24 profit guidance exceeded market expectations, with net profit expected to be RMB 1.048-1.092 billion, up 140-150% YoY and 58-65% QoQ [2] - Growth drivers for 2H24 and 2025 include: 1) Recovery in smartphone demand leading to higher shipment volumes, ASPs, and gross margins for camera modules and lenses [2] 2) Increasing penetration of new energy vehicles driving growth in automotive modules and lenses [2] - The target price implies 2024 and 2025 P/E multiples of 23.9x and 20.3x respectively [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024 revenue forecast raised to RMB 36.846 billion, up 16% YoY [5] - 2024 net profit forecast raised to RMB 2.416 billion, up 120% YoY [8] - 2024 gross margin forecast at 17.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from previous forecast [11] - 2024 operating margin forecast at 8.8%, up 3.0 percentage points from previous forecast [11] Valuation - Sum-of-the-parts valuation applied with target P/E multiples of: - 12x for smartphone camera modules [9] - 15x for smartphone lenses [9] - 35x for automotive lenses [9] - 20x for other businesses [9] - This results in a target price of HKD 57.0 [9] Industry Context - Sunny Optical is positioned to benefit from the recovery in smartphone demand and growth in automotive optics [2] - The company's capacity expansion has been restrained, allowing revenue growth to translate into profit growth [2] - The report also covers other technology companies including smartphone brands, automotive companies, and semiconductor firms [13]

本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 宏观经济 | 政策点评 在货币政策上，除了今天（7 月 22 日）的降息和继续健全市场化的 利率调控机制之外，我们认为央行亦可能积极使用结构性工具以达到 定向宽松的作用。此外，如有需要我们不排除下半年再次降息（10 个 基点）的可能性。我们仍预计下半年还有 25-50 个基点的降准，不过 可能性基于央行淡化数量指标（M2 和 TSF 等）的说法有所降低。短 期内由于金融"挤水分"和"防空转"等操作，信贷数据或持续低迷， 观察短期利率指标或更能反映央行货币政策操作方向（图表 1）。 图表 2：近期相关报告列表 本报告之观点、推荐、建议和意见均不一定反映浦银国际证券的立场。浦银国际控股有限公司及其联属公司、关联公 司（统称"浦银国际"）及/或其董事及/或雇员，可能持有在本报告内所述或有关公司之证券、并可能不时进行买卖。 浦银国际或其任何董事及/或雇员对投资者因使用本报告或依赖其所载信息而引起的一切可能损失，概不承担任何法律 责任。 1) 浦银国际并没有持有本报告所述公司逾 1%的财务权益。 2) 浦银国际跟 ...

5. 在宏观调控上，"统筹推进财税、金融等重点领域改革"将是重点。 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

本报告的版权仅为浦银国际证券所有，未经书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、刊登、发表 或引用，浦银国际证券对任何第三方的该等行为保留追述权利，并且对第三方未经授权行为不承担任何责任。 权益披露 1) 浦银国际并没有持有本报告所述公司逾 1%的财务权益。 2) 浦银国际跟本报告所述公司在过去 12 个月内并没有任何投资银行业务的关系。 3) 浦银国际并没有跟本报告所述公司为其证券进行庄家活动。 2024-07-16 22 评级定义 在中美几大关键地缘政治分歧（中国台湾、南海和新疆问题等）上，拜 登和特朗普政府的态度区别不大。重点落在维护美国在这些地区的利益， 以及遏制中国国际政治地位上，不过所使用的方式方法有所差别： 特朗普态度多变，但似乎更多的是将台湾问题作为和中国进行利益谈判 的筹码。特朗普 2016 年当选总统后与台湾地区领导人蔡英文通话，打 破了美国几十年来的外交惯例。在 4 年的任期内，特朗普共进行过 11 次对台军售，是台美断交至今宣布对台湾军售最多的美国总统，其中还 包括向台湾出售最新型 F-16 战斗机。但是在此次竞选过程中，特朗普对 军援台湾问题上一直采取模棱两可的态度。他表 ...

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 唯品会(VIPS.US):短期增速或承压, 预计利润率维持稳健 受去年高基数及消费情绪偏弱影响,我们预计公司二季度收入下降 5%,符合公司先前指引,调整目标价至 15 美元,维持"持有"评级。 受去年高基数影响,公司短期收入增长或仍将承受一定压力。由于消 费情绪偏弱,公司用户数或受影响,订单量或有所下滑,但预计核心 SVIP 用户仍将保持稳定增长,部分弥补摇摆用户的流失。 我们预计公司二季度收入同比下降 5%至人民币 265 亿元,符合公司 先前指引 265 亿-279 亿元;预计毛利率同比改善 0.8pp 至 23.0%;预 计调整后净利润为 21 亿元,调整后净利润 8.1%,维持稳健。 随着基数消退,公司三季度收入增速有望环比改善。我们略微调整 2024E 收入预测至 1,121 亿元,调整后净利润至 94.2 亿元,调整后净 利率为 8.4%。 投资风险:行业竞争加剧;用户增长不及预期;利润率不及预期。 图表 1:盈利预测变动 2024E 2025E 2026E | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...