分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 如何看待特朗普全球关税加征后续影响？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 04 月 05 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 1、《4 月金股报告》2025-03-28 2、《土耳其股市大跌的"内忧外患"》 2025-03-23 3、《4 月市场风格或如何演绎？》 2025-03-22 报告摘要 就全球影响而言，全球贸易秩序崩塌和经济增长放缓或已成大概率事件。无论特朗普 最终关税多少，其关税政策反复已经触及了全球贸易秩序的根基——即各国之间的信 任。当前全球贸易风险已经大幅上升，各国为了降低经济风险必然会降低对外贸易， 各国的发展模式也将由"效率"转向"安全"。未来各国在国家安全导向下或逐步加 大制造业投资，削减福利，全球贸易或进一步缩减。在这种情况下，不仅美国经济短 期滞胀，全球经济中期经济放缓已或是大概率事件，且地缘动荡和矛盾显著加剧，故 黄金大级别趋势依然将延续和强化。 就对我国的影响而言，特朗普关税压力下，今年的 ...

电子化学品Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 Email：nielei@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：孙颖 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 1,835 | 2,103 | 2,756 | 3,418 | 4,105 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 19% | 15% | 31% | 24% | 20% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][18] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 82.52 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.95 billion yuan, up 26.80% year-on-year [4] - The report indicates that the company is expected to benefit from the long-term upward trend in precious metal prices, with projected gold production of 50.0 tons in 2025 and corresponding net profits of 5.62 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 59.275 billion yuan - 2024A: 82.518 billion yuan - 2025E: 106.386 billion yuan - 2026E: 113.806 billion yuan - 2027E: 118.057 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 18% (2023A), 39% (2024A), 29% (2025E), 7% (2026E), 4% (2027E) [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 2.328 billion yuan - 2024A: 2.952 billion yuan - 2025E: 5.622 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.680 billion yuan - 2027E: 7.480 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 87% (2023A), 27% (2024A), 90% (2025E), 19% (2026E), 12% (2027E) [3] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin for 2024 was 16.50%, a slight decrease of 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to reach 9% by 2027 [3] Production and Sales Performance - The company produced 46.17 tons of gold in 2024, with sales of 45.24 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.18% [5] - The average selling price of self-produced gold was 553 yuan per gram, up 22.69% year-on-year, while the cost of self-produced gold was 293 yuan per gram, an increase of 27.14% [5] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to maintain a gold production of no less than 50 tons in 2025, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capacity [6] - The report anticipates that the company will continue to benefit from the rising gold prices and its strategic expansion efforts [7]

汽车零部件 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524060004 Email：caixh@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 182.19 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 177.01 | | 市价(元) | 34.30 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,249.02 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 6,071.34 | 1、《汽车后市场出海先锋，积极打 造固态电池第二成长级》2025-01-15 24 年业绩基本符合预期，加快推进固态电池业务 ——冠盛股份 2024 年年报点评 冠盛股份（605088.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 03 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 17.17 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.89%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, up 14.24% year-on-year [4][6]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a rise in gross margin, which increased from 11.56% in the previous year to 11.96% in 2024, leading to a net profit margin increase from 4.73% to 5.06% [6]. - The company successfully expanded its property management projects, managing 2,296 projects across 162 cities, with a total managed area of 365 million square meters [7]. - The residential and non-residential segments saw a recovery in profit margins, with residential gross margin rising from 7.89% in 2023 to 10.88% in 2024, and non-residential gross margin increasing from 9.10% to 10.59% [8]. - The company reported a significant reduction in financial expenses, down 52.64% year-on-year to 30 million yuan, due to a decrease in interest-bearing debt [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.89%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, reflecting a 14.24% increase year-on-year [4][6]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 11.96%, up from 11.56% the previous year, contributing to a net profit margin increase to 5.06% [6]. Business Expansion - The company signed new annual contracts worth 4.029 billion yuan, with third-party contracts contributing 3.693 billion yuan. The company also successfully expanded into key projects such as Shenzhen Xinhua Hospital and Tsinghua University [7]. - The total leasable area managed by the company reached 468,900 square meters, with an overall occupancy rate of 95% [9]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.91 yuan for 2025, 1.03 yuan for 2026, and 1.13 yuan for 2027, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 17.5 in 2023 to 10.7 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation outlook [3].

城商行Ⅱ 详解杭州银行 1Q25 主要经营情况： 存贷增速较高，资产质量稳健 杭州银行（600926.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 02 日 股价与行业-市场走势对比 主要经营情况综述：1、1Q25 杭州银行营收同比增长 2.2%，增速较上年末下降了 7.4 个百分点，一季度集中重定价之后净利息收入增速预计放缓，债市波动预计 也使得非息收入增速下降，在这样的背景下公司营收仍能保持正增殊为不易；公 司资产质量保持优秀水平，归母净利润同比增长 17.3%，较上年末微降 0.8 个百 分点，总体仍保持较高增速。2、杭州银行一季度存贷继续保持较高增速。1）杭 州银行一季度贷款规模增长 577 亿元，贷款余额同比增长 14.3%，较上年末下降 了 1.9 个百分点，贷款增长依旧不弱。贷款占比总资产环比上升 0.4 个百分点至 44.8%。2）一季度存款单季增长 762.2 亿元，同比多增 78.1 亿，同比增速为 21.1%， 较上年末下降了 0.6 个百分点，总体仍然维持较高的增速。3、不良率与拨备保持 优秀水平。1）不良维度——不良率保持低位稳定。1Q25 年杭州银行不良贷款率 0.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [25]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.733 billion yuan for 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 441 million yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 37.9%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][20]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.422 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.9%. The net profit for this quarter was 187 million yuan, up 85.9% year-on-year and 90.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The company is focusing on the new energy control business while accelerating the development of the electrical transmission business and large-capacity power products, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 5.002 billion yuan in 2025, 5.984 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.684 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 20%, and 12% respectively [17][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 605 million yuan in 2025, 761 million yuan in 2026, and 910 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37%, 26%, and 20% respectively [17][20]. Business Segments - The new energy control business generated 2.86 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, down 5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.7%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][10]. - The electrical transmission business achieved revenue of 560 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 44.5% [3][15]. - The company is expanding its product matrix, which includes wind power converters, photovoltaic inverters, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and large power products [6][7]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in wind power installations in 2025, with a projected growth rate of over 50% for new installations [14]. - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, achieving breakthroughs in the wind power converter market and completing certifications for photovoltaic products [14][12]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 26, 21, and 17 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [20][21].

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 如何看待特朗普"对等关税"冲击？ 徐驰 S0740519080003 xuchi@zts.com.cn 张文宇 S0740520120003 zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 王永健 S0740522050001 wangyj09@zts.com.cn 2 0 2 5 . 0 4 . 0 3 目 录 C O N T E N T S 特朗普"反秩序性" 1 与对内政策调整 2 风险提示 核心观点 特朗普2.0或对全球带来 哪些影响？ 3 关税临近， 关注全球衰退"尾部风险" 4 ➢ 一、特朗普政策本质：颠覆秩序与反建制 ➢ 二、TikTok事件：中美博弈的核心抓手 ➢ 三、特朗普2.0对全球秩序冲击：制度瓦解与重构 3 ➢ 近日，特朗普"对等关税"对中国征收54%高关税（新增34%+原有20%），对东南亚国家关税幅度全球最高，但这可能非最终版本。特 朗普虽为兑现政治承诺大幅加征关税，但面对经济衰退、股市调整或核心选民受损时可能迅速调整后续关税水平。 ➢ 但无论最终关税幅度如何，特朗普政策已对全球贸易秩 ...

化学纤维 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 Email：nielei@zts.com.cn 分析师：曹惠 执业证书编号：S0740525030003 Email：caohui@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 900.00 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 144.65 | | 市价(元) | 20.61 | | 市值(百万元) | 18,549.00 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 2,981.25 | 1、《需求疲软增长承压，多举措提升 竞争力》2024-10-29 2、《销量高增，盈利企稳》2024-05-10 中复神鹰（688295.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 03 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E ...

| 分析师：张德礼 | 报告摘要 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 |  北京时间 2025 年 4 月 3 日凌晨，美国公布对等关税政策，引起全球关注。对此我们 | | Email：zhangdl01@zts.com.cn | 有以下理解： | | |  第一，加征幅度高于市场预期。在 10%的基线关税税率基础上，美国宣布对 29 个国 | | 相关报告 | 家和地区加征更高的关税。测算显示，2024 年美国从这 29 个国家和地区的进口，占 美国总进口的 年美国进口占比作为权重测算，不考虑部分国家地区（未 63%。用 | | | 2024 | | | 来可能被再次加征）、产品被豁免这一因素，美国进口关税税率平均上升 21.4 个百分 | | | 点，高于市场预期，引起全球资本市场调整。 | | |  预期差来源于政府补贴、贸易壁垒、汇率干预等因素，市场机构难以量化测算，对部 | | | 分经济体而言，非关税因素甚至可能占主导。 | | |  第二，对等关税政策完全执行的难度较大，预计会通过谈判来逐步下调，且有可能会 | | | 推迟执行。美国财政部长贝 ...