公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 19,263 18,173 18,609 19,703 20,875 增长率 yoy% 20% -6% 2% 6% 6% 归母净利润（百万元） 4,525 4,923 5,185 5,527 5,904 增长率 yoy% 14% 9% 5% 7% 7% 每股收益（元） 0.70 0.76 0.80 0.85 0.91 每股现金流量 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.97 1.02 净资产收益率 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% P/E 11.9 10.9 10.4 9.7 9.1 P/B 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 备注：股价截止自2024 年 10 月 30 日收盘价，每股指标按照最新股本数全面摊薄 基本状况 青岛港（601298.SH） 航运港口 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 评级： 买入（维持） 分析师：杜冲 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 联系人：邵美玲 Email：shaoml@zts ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Views - The domestic cement market remains under pressure, with a year-on-year production decline of 10.7% in Q3, reaching a total of 1.33 billion tons. The production levels in July, August, and September were the lowest since 2010 for the same period [1][2]. - The company is expected to see a gradual price recovery in domestic cement sales due to price increases initiated at the end of September [1]. - The company's gross margin is under temporary pressure, with a Q3 gross margin of 24.7%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.6%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The overseas and non-cement business segments are expected to support growth, with significant contributions from operations in countries like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, and a notable increase in aggregate and commercial concrete revenues [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 84.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.76 billion yuan, down 39.3% year-on-year [2][3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 1.74 billion, 2.14 billion, and 2.53 billion yuan, respectively [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the domestic cement market is experiencing a downturn, with production and pricing pressures. However, the overseas market and non-cement business segments are expected to provide a buffer against these challenges [1][2]. - The company has established a significant presence in the overseas market, with a total cement clinker capacity of 15.44 million tons per year and ongoing projects that will further enhance this capacity [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 14.7, 12.0, and 10.1, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 0.8 for 2024 and 0.7 for 2026 [1][2].

银轮股份（002126.SZ） 汽车零部件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 业绩稳健增长延续，海外布局提速拓展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

仙鹤股份（603733.SH） 造纸 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 Q3 销量年内新高，自制浆优势 Q4 逐步体现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 18,486 26,546 27,721 28,572 29,546 增长率 yoy% 14% 44% 4% 3% 3% 归母净利润（百万元） 2,855 3,297 3,271 3,506 3,805 增长率 yoy% -6% 15% -1% 7% 9% 每股收益（元） 0.59 0.68 0.68 0.72 0.79 每股现金流量 1.06 1.24 2.75 3.00 3.03 净资产收益率 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% P/E 14.8 12.8 12.9 12.1 11.1 P/B 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 备注：股价截止自2024 年 10 月 29 日收盘价，每股指标按照最新股本数全面摊薄 评级： 买入（维持） 分析师：杜冲 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 联系人：邵美玲 Email：shaoml@zts.com.cn 基本状况 报告摘要 山东高速于 2024 年 10 月 29 日发布 2024 年三季度报告： 山 ...

广和通（300638.SZ） 通信设备 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 营收环比向上，机器人业务推进顺利 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

三友医疗（688085.SH） 医疗器械 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 集采出清国内快速恢复，自主品牌加速出海 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------ ...

药明康德（603259.SH） 医疗服务 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 在手订单增长提速，整体业务呈逐步恢复态势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that external policy impacts have affected short-term performance, but there is optimism regarding domestic equipment upgrades and continuous breakthroughs in overseas markets [1] - The company has shown resilience in its domestic business despite policy disruptions, with strong performance in overseas markets, particularly in high-end strategic clients and large sample laboratories [1][2] - The report anticipates rapid growth in the domestic market driven by new medical infrastructure and recovery in hospital diagnostics, while overseas high-end clients are expected to continue to expand [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 30,366 million - 2023A: 34,932 million - 2024E: 38,391 million - 2025E: 44,759 million - 2026E: 52,249 million - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: 20% (2022), 15% (2023), 10% (2024), 17% (2025), 17% (2026) [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 9,607 million - 2023A: 11,582 million - 2024E: 13,375 million - 2025E: 15,677 million - 2026E: 18,301 million - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: 20% (2022), 21% (2023), 15% (2024), 17% (2025), 17% (2026) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 7.92 - 2023A: 9.55 - 2024E: 11.03 - 2025E: 12.93 - 2026E: 15.09 [1] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE): 30% (2022), 35% (2023), 29% (2024), 25% (2025), 23% (2026) [1] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 34.2 (2022), 28.4 (2023), 24.6 (2024), 21.0 (2025), 18.0 (2026) [1] Market and Business Insights - The company has experienced a slight slowdown in growth due to domestic medical regulations, but its overseas business remains robust, with significant revenue contributions from high-end products and new business lines such as minimally invasive surgery and animal healthcare [1][2] - The report notes that the company's market share in the domestic market is expected to increase, with the in vitro diagnostics segment becoming the largest revenue contributor [1][2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of special bond issuance and the gradual recovery of its monitoring business [1][6]

深南电路（002916.SZ） 元件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 深南电路：三季报业绩平稳，PCB 龙头深度受益 AI 大周期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------- ...