Investment Rating - Rating: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The macro changes disturb demand expectations, favoring certain investment targets. The coal price has been weak recently, primarily due to a slight decline in iron and steel production, raising concerns about peak production levels. The "golden September and silver October" peak season has ended, leading to a decrease in expectations for further production resumption in steel mills [10][11]. - The coal industry remains in a high prosperity phase, driven by capacity cycles. The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has effectively reduced excess capacity, with a total of 110 million tons of outdated capacity eliminated, exceeding the target of 80 million tons [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the ongoing supply-side reforms and the limited release of new coal production capacity. The demand for coal is projected to grow alongside national economic growth, reinforcing coal's role in the energy system [9][10]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of November 1, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,740.0 CNY/ton, down 20.0 CNY/ton from the previous week, reflecting a 1.14% weekly decline and a 24.68% year-on-year decrease [15]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is 715.00 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous week but a 2.46% year-on-year decline [15]. 3. Company Performance - China Shenhua reported a commodity coal production of 26.6 million tons in September 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, while total electricity generation increased by 32.9% [11][12]. - Shaanxi Coal achieved a coal production of 13.82 million tons in September 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.04% [12]. - Yanzhou Coal Energy reported a commodity coal production of 36.73 million tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.81% [13]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend attributes such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated assets like Xinjie Energy and Huaihe Energy. Additionally, companies like Zhongmei Energy and Jinkong Coal are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [10].

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with Q3 revenue of 47.1 billion yuan (-16% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.8 billion yuan (+5.5% YoY) [2] - Q1-3 revenue was 147.4 billion yuan (-5% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company of 22 billion yuan (+9% YoY) [2] - The company's channel reform has been effective, leading to a significant decrease in sales expense ratio (4%, -4% YoY) [3] - The company's Q1-3 performance has consistently met or exceeded market expectations, with both domestic and export sales showing positive trends in Q4 [4] Financial Performance and Forecast Revenue and Profit - 2022A revenue: 190.151 billion yuan, 2023A revenue: 205.018 billion yuan (+8% YoY), 2024E revenue: 205.855 billion yuan (+0% YoY), 2025E revenue: 212.642 billion yuan (+3% YoY), 2026E revenue: 219.490 billion yuan (+3% YoY) [1] - 2022A net profit attributable to the parent company: 24.507 billion yuan, 2023A net profit attributable to the parent company: 29.017 billion yuan (+18% YoY), 2024E net profit attributable to the parent company: 31.870 billion yuan (+10% YoY), 2025E net profit attributable to the parent company: 33.165 billion yuan (+4% YoY), 2026E net profit attributable to the parent company: 34.970 billion yuan (+5% YoY) [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2022A ROE: 25%, 2023A ROE: 25%, 2024E ROE: 23%, 2025E ROE: 20%, 2026E ROE: 19% [1] - 2022A P/E: 9.9x, 2023A P/E: 8.4x, 2024E P/E: 7.6x, 2025E P/E: 7.4x, 2026E P/E: 7.0x [1] - 2022A P/B: 2.5x, 2023A P/B: 2.1x, 2024E P/B: 1.8x, 2025E P/B: 1.5x, 2026E P/B: 1.3x [1] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - 2023A operating cash flow: 56.398 billion yuan, 2024E operating cash flow: 42.937 billion yuan, 2025E operating cash flow: 38.576 billion yuan, 2026E operating cash flow: 39.250 billion yuan [6] - 2023A total assets: 368.054 billion yuan, 2024E total assets: 392.591 billion yuan, 2025E total assets: 422.271 billion yuan, 2026E total assets: 446.419 billion yuan [6] Industry and Market Analysis - Q3 domestic sales of air conditioners decreased by 20%, while export sales increased by 43% [3] - Q4 production of air conditioners is expected to increase by 50%, with the company benefiting from this trend [4] - The company's export revenue accounts for only 15-20% of total revenue, which is lower than peers, making it less affected by tariff risks [4] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 205.9/212.6/219.5 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.9/33.2/35.0 billion yuan [4] - The company's 2024/2025/2026 P/E ratios are 8/7/7x, supporting the "Buy" rating [4]

请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 伟星新材（002372.SZ） 装修建材 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 02 日 收入韧性凸显，保持高质量经营 ——伟星新材 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group [1] Core Views - Midea Group's revenue growth quality is strong, with a better-than-expected net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company is expected to maintain high-quality growth, with significant improvements in "other current liabilities" and "contract liabilities" [1] - The report anticipates a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year for 2023, with a projected growth rate of 10% for 2024 [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 345,709 - 2023A: 373,710 (+8%) - 2024E: 410,078 (+10%) - 2025E: 434,476 (+6%) - 2026E: 459,146 (+6%) [1] - **Net Profit (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 29,554 - 2023A: 33,720 (+14%) - 2024E: 38,929 (+15%) - 2025E: 42,846 (+10%) - 2026E: 46,818 (+9%) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (in CNY)**: - 2022A: 3.86 - 2023A: 4.40 - 2024E: 5.08 - 2025E: 5.60 - 2026E: 6.12 [1] - **Cash Flow Per Share (in CNY)**: - 2022A: 4.53 - 2023A: 7.56 - 2024E: 7.42 - 2025E: 8.03 - 2026E: 7.53 [1] - **Return on Equity**: - 2022A: 21% - 2023A: 20% - 2024E: 19% - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 17% [1] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: - 2022A: 18.7 - 2023A: 16.4 - 2024E: 14.2 - 2025E: 12.9 - 2026E: 11.8 [1] - **Price-to-Book Ratio**: - 2022A: 3.9 - 2023A: 3.4 - 2024E: 2.9 - 2025E: 2.5 - 2026E: 2.1 [1] Market Comparison - The report indicates that Midea's domestic sales growth is outperforming the industry, with a projected revenue increase of 9% in Q3, with all product categories showing positive growth [1] - The company is expected to maintain a high-quality growth trajectory, supported by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in revenue and profit growth for 42 listed banks in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.5%, an improvement from a 2.2% decline in H1 2024, driven by stabilized interest margins and increased non-interest income [2][3] - Profit growth for the banking sector increased by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.4% in H1 2024, with state-owned banks showing improved contributions from revenue, costs, provisions, and taxes [2][3] - The report indicates that asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) generation rate of 0.66% and an NPL ratio of 1.25%, maintaining historical lows since 2014 [2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue for the banking sector showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, with large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 1.8%, 2.6%, 4.1%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Profit growth varied across bank types, with large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks growing by 0.8%, 0.9%, 6.8%, and 4.9% respectively [2] - Notable high-growth banks include Jiangsu, Qingdao, Changshu, and Ruifeng, with net profit growth exceeding 10% and revenue growth above 5% [2] Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - Net interest income declined by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, with interest-earning assets growing by 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The net interest margin decreased by 19 basis points year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from a 21 basis point decline in H1 2024 [2] - Non-interest income increased by 4% year-on-year, with fee income declining by 10.8% but showing a reduced decline compared to H1 2024 [2] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The report notes a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 242.87% [2] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for the banking sector increased by 15 basis points to 11.5% in Q3 2024 [2] - Risk-weighted asset growth slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2023 [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential improvement in loan growth in Q4 2024, driven by increased government bond issuance and signs of recovery in the real estate market [2] - Interest margins are expected to stabilize in Q4, although pressure may persist into 2025 due to overall downward trends in asset pricing [2] - Fee income may see an uptick in Q4 due to increased activity in the capital markets, although the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Views - The company is experiencing operational pressure but is expected to improve in the future. The report highlights the slow recovery of consumer demand and the gradual increase in the penetration rate of prepared dishes, which is affecting revenue growth [2][3][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its retail channels, particularly in the East China region, and is optimizing its store operations while encouraging capable store owners to open multiple locations. Additionally, it is deepening cooperation with hotel and catering clients through a "1+N" model [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 511 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, and a net profit of 68 million yuan, down 36.83% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenues were 183 million yuan, a decline of 9.19% year-on-year [3][4]. - The revenue breakdown by product for Q3 2024 shows declines across various categories, with beef, poultry, and seafood products experiencing decreases of 5.31%, 7.65%, and 6.19% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25.91%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.34 percentage points, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 681 million yuan, 708 million yuan, and 753 million yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 88 million yuan, 93 million yuan, and 99 million yuan for the same years [2][3]. - The report anticipates a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to 0.64 yuan, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit despite a decline in overall revenue, indicating strong performance on the profit side [2][3] - The company is expanding into the individual loan non-performing asset management business, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.05%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.36% [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 32.67%, up 4.98 percentage points from the same period last year, while expenses remained stable [2] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 5.725 billion, 6.329 billion, and 7.027 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 361 million, 407 million, and 469 million yuan [3] Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 45, 40, and 34 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3] - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8% in 2023 to 9% by 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Shanxi Fenjiu has a high quality of cash collection and anticipates growth in markets outside its home province [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain steady growth despite a general slowdown in the liquor industry [1][2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 26,214 million yuan - 2023A: 31,928 million yuan (yoy growth of 22%) - 2024E: 36,907 million yuan (yoy growth of 16%) - 2025E: 41,777 million yuan (yoy growth of 13%) - 2026E: 47,079 million yuan (yoy growth of 13%) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 8,096 million yuan - 2023A: 10,438 million yuan (yoy growth of 29%) - 2024E: 12,184 million yuan (yoy growth of 17%) - 2025E: 14,011 million yuan (yoy growth of 15%) - 2026E: 15,989 million yuan (yoy growth of 14%) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 6.64 yuan - 2023A: 8.56 yuan - 2024E: 9.99 yuan - 2025E: 11.48 yuan - 2026E: 13.11 yuan [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 37% - 2023A: 37% - 2024E: 35% - 2025E: 32% - 2026E: 29% [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 31.5 - 2023A: 24.4 - 2024E: 20.9 - 2025E: 18.2 - 2026E: 15.9 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Shanxi Fenjiu is leveraging its strong brand and unique flavor profile to expand its market presence nationally, particularly in provinces outside its home base [1] - The company is expected to continue its efforts in channel adjustment and brand positioning to achieve balanced growth in both volume and price [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for the third quarter of 2024 reached 4.188 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.33%, but the profit decline has narrowed [1]. - The company is focusing on AI product upgrades and digital transformation, which is expected to enhance its research and investment capabilities [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 6,502 million yuan - 2023A: 7,281 million yuan (growth rate: 12%) - 2024E: 7,822 million yuan (growth rate: 7%) - 2025E: 8,546 million yuan (growth rate: 9%) - 2026E: 9,557 million yuan (growth rate: 12%) [1]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,091 million yuan - 2023A: 1,424 million yuan (growth rate: 31%) - 2024E: 1,581 million yuan (growth rate: 11%) - 2025E: 1,774 million yuan (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 2,011 million yuan (growth rate: 13%) [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.58 yuan - 2023A: 0.75 yuan - 2024E: 0.83 yuan - 2025E: 0.94 yuan - 2026E: 1.06 yuan [1]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 44.8 - 2023A: 34.4 - 2024E: 31.0 - 2025E: 27.6 - 2026E: 24.3 [1]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 7.2 - 2023A: 6.1 - 2024E: 5.3 - 2025E: 4.6 - 2026E: 4.0 [1]. Market Comparison - The company's stock price as of November 1, 2024, is 25.83 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 48.93 billion yuan [1]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue and profit have been impacted by a decline in wealth technology service income, which has affected overall performance [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Xinji Energy (601918.SH) [1] Core Views - The commissioning of the second phase of the Lixin Power Plant is expected to sustain high growth in the thermal power business [1] - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 12,717 million yuan, with a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, followed by a significant increase of 13% in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 13% in 2024, reaching 2,379 million yuan [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 12,003 million yuan - 2023A: 12,845 million yuan - 2024E: 12,717 million yuan - 2025E: 14,334 million yuan - 2026E: 20,373 million yuan [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 2,064 million yuan - 2023A: 2,109 million yuan - 2024E: 2,379 million yuan - 2025E: 2,512 million yuan - 2026E: 2,944 million yuan [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.81 yuan - 2024E: 0.92 yuan - 2025E: 0.97 yuan - 2026E: 1.14 yuan [2] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024E: 9.3 - 2025E: 8.8 - 2026E: 7.5 [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2024E: 15% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 16% [1] Business Performance - **Coal Production**: - In Q3 2024, the coal production decreased by 16.49% year-on-year, with a total of 452 million tons [1] - **Power Generation**: - The power generation for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 16.18% year-on-year, reaching 40 billion kWh [1] - **Average On-grid Electricity Price**: - Increased by 20.77% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued expansion in the power business due to the commissioning of new projects and an increase in electricity generation capacity [1]