行 业 华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 02 月 22 日 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 1 月份全国铁路旅客发送量同比增长 12.1%，复兴号家 族全球最快成员将登场 投资要点： 2025 年 1 月份全国铁路客运量比 2024 年同期增长 12.1% 行 业 定 期 报 告 国家铁路局发布消息，2025 年 1 月份，全国铁路客运量稳步增长。 1 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量完成 3.69 亿人次，同比增长 12.1%，其 中动车组旅客发送量 2.75 亿人次，占全国铁路旅客发送量的 74.6%， 同比增长 10.6%。全国铁路旅客周转量完成 1446.17 亿人公里，同比增 长 17.6%，其中动车组旅客周转量 971.00 亿人公里，同比增长 18.9%。 "中国速度"已是 next level，复兴号家族全球最快成员将登场 不久前，CR450 动车组完成了样车设计并成功下线，试验时速 450 公里，运营时速可以达到 400 公里，是全球最快的高铁列车。历经 7 年的技术攻关和自主创新，2025 年，CR450 动车组将迎来整车试验验 证和试用考核。相信在不久的将来，这趟"全球最快"高铁列车会在 高质量发展的时 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [16]. Core Insights - Figure Robotics has showcased its latest humanoid robots capable of collaborating to complete tasks, demonstrating advanced capabilities in object recognition and manipulation without prior training [4][5]. - The Helix model utilized by Figure Robotics operates on a dual-system architecture, enabling the robots to perform complex tasks with high precision and adaptability [5]. - 1X has introduced the NEO Gamma home robot, which has undergone extensive testing in real household environments, showcasing its ability to perform various domestic chores effectively [6]. Summary by Sections Figure Robotics - The latest video from Figure Robotics highlights two humanoid robots working together to grasp objects based on verbal commands, showcasing their ability to recognize and manipulate household items [4]. - The Helix model allows these robots to operate without pre-programming, using a single neural network to learn all behaviors, thus enabling them to reason and handle a wide range of household items [5]. 1X Robotics - 1X has released the NEO Gamma home robot, which has been tested in employee homes for various household tasks, emphasizing its reliability and advanced hardware improvements [6]. - The NEO Gamma robot is designed for tasks such as organizing, deep cleaning, and home management, featuring soft, flexible materials for safe interaction [6].

研 究 煤炭 淡季累库煤价探底，左侧布局时点将至 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 2 月 21 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 719 元/吨， 周环比-22 元/吨。产地价格大跌，晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 81.9%，周 环比+3.5pct，主要系节后煤矿陆续复工。本周电厂日耗大涨，电厂库 存小跌、港口库存小涨、煤企库存小涨；非电方面，甲醇开工率小跌、 尿素开工率微跌，仍处于历史同期偏高水平，截至 2 月 20 日，甲醇开 工率为 89.5%，周环比+1.5pct，年同比+4.5pct；截至 2 月 19 日，尿素 开工率为 86.8%，周环比-0.4pct，年同比-0.1pct。 焦煤 行 业 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 02 月 22 日 截至 2 月 21 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1430 元/吨，周环比-30 元/ 运，产地价格持平。铁水产量微跌，样本钢厂煤焦库存小跌。本周焦 炭价格小跌、螺纹钢价格小涨，截至 2 月 21 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦 出厂价 1450 元/吨，周环比-50 元/吨，螺纹钢现货价格 3400 元，周环 比+100 元/吨，焦炭第九轮提 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][56] Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the food and beverage industry, driven by favorable consumption policies and improving market expectations [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong safety margin in the liquor sector, with the SW liquor index PE-TTM at 19.31, which is at a low percentile of 6.18% over the past 10 years [3][12] - The report suggests that the beer market will see stable sales growth, primarily driven by high-end product strategies [15] - The soft drink sector is expected to recover, with specific companies showing potential for excess returns [16][17] - The pre-mixed beverage industry is projected to expand steadily, benefiting from evolving consumer habits and new consumption scenarios [20][21] - The dairy sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on major players like Yili, with an emphasis on product structure optimization [22] - The snack food industry is maintaining good market conditions, with recommendations for companies like Ximai Food and Three Squirrels [26] - The seasoning and restaurant supply chain is highlighted for its growth potential, with key recommendations including Angel Yeast and Zhongju High-tech [31][33] - The baking supply chain is expected to show resilience, with recommendations for companies like Lihai Food and Huirong Technology [37][38] - The health supplement sector is projected to grow, driven by increasing health awareness among consumers [39] - The restaurant industry is experiencing varied performance, with specific companies like Haidilao and Jiumaojiu recommended for their innovative strategies [43][44] - The pet industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in export markets, with recommendations for companies like Zhongchong and Peidi [45][46] - The gold and jewelry sector requires attention to consumer behavior amid fluctuating gold prices, with recommendations for companies like Chaohongji and Zhou Daxing [47] Summary by Sections Liquor - The liquor sector shows a strong safety margin with a low PE-TTM, suggesting good investment potential [3][12] - Key companies to watch include Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to maintain price stability and market share [3] Beer - The beer market is expected to grow through high-end product strategies, with recommendations for Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer [15][16] Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is recovering, with a focus on companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Xiangpiaopiao [16][17] Pre-mixed Beverages - The pre-mixed beverage industry is anticipated to grow steadily, with Baijiu Holdings recommended for its market position [20][21] Dairy - Yili is highlighted for its profit-oriented strategies and product optimization [22] Snack Foods - The snack food industry remains robust, with recommendations for Ximai Food and Three Squirrels [26] Seasoning and Restaurant Supply Chain - Key recommendations include Angel Yeast and Zhongju High-tech for their growth potential [31][33] Baking Supply Chain - Lihai Food and Huirong Technology are recommended for their strong market positions [37][38] Health Supplements - The health supplement sector is expected to grow, with a focus on companies like Baijia and Baihe [39] Restaurant Industry - Haidilao and Jiumaojiu are recommended for their innovative approaches in the restaurant sector [43][44] Pet Industry - The pet industry is recovering, with recommendations for Zhongchong and Peidi [45][46] Gold and Jewelry - Attention is needed in the gold and jewelry sector, with recommendations for Chaohongji and Zhou Daxing [47]

25 年 1 月绿证核发量倍增，绿证核发政策体系完善效应逐步显现：根据 国家能源局，2025 年 1 月，国家能源局核发绿证 2.31 亿个，同比增长 2.25 倍，其中可交易绿证 1.50 亿个，占比 64.94%，涉及可再生能源发电项目 6.5 万个。截至 2025 年 1 月，全国累计核发绿证 51.86 亿个，其中可交易绿证 35.29 亿个。交易方面，2025 年 1 月，全国交易绿证 5310 万个，其中绿色电力交易 绿证 2596 万个。截至 2025 年 1 月底，全国累计交易绿证 6.06 亿个，其中绿 色电力交易绿证 2.64 亿个。2024 年我国绿证核发质效显著提升，交易规模增 长迅速，绿证核发范围逐步拓展。2025 年 1 月绿证市场活跃度持续提升，为后 续核发量增长提供有力支撑。 华福证券 证 券 研 究 "双碳"目标推动环保产业创新发展：近日，生态环境部等 16 部门发 布《关于加强生态环境领域科技创新 推动美丽中国建设的实施意见》，提出 到 2035 年，生态环境领域创新体系整体效能大幅提升，国家战略科技力量全 面增强，生态环境保护理论方法取得重大突破，原始创新能力和成果转移转 ...

行 业 研 究 汽车 2025 年 02 月 22 日 尊界举办技术发布会 上汽与华为官宣合作 投资要点： 本周专题：尊界举办技术发布会 上汽与华为官宣合作 行 业 定 期 2 月 20 日，鸿蒙智行尊界技术发布会举行。尊界 S800 将首发上 车多项新技术，包括途灵龙行平台、天使座主动安全防护、华为星河 通信、鸿蒙 ALPS 座舱 2.0.、华为车语系统 2.0、华为巨鲸电池 2.0 等， 其中前三项属于尊界 S800 首发，将实现从被动智能到自主智能的全新 跃迁。 报 告 尊界 S800 实现了智能驾驶、智能座舱、智能域控三大系统的深度 融合，并支持 L3 级自动驾驶及 5D 蟹行模式，其内饰设计计划于 3 月 发布，5 月底正式上市并同步开启交付工作。尊界品牌的推出，标志着 鸿蒙智行在高端智能驾驶领域的深入布局，并有望引领中国高端汽车 市场的新发展。 2 月 21 日，上汽集团股份有限公司与华为终端有限公司在上海签 署深度合作协议。双方将在产品定义、生产制造、供应链管理、销售 服务等领域展开战略合作，打造全新新能源智能汽车，共同为用户带 来领先的智能化出行体验。 上汽集团与华为合作采用智选车模式，打造鸿 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Insights - France's Newcleo is accelerating the deployment of its fourth-generation reactor project, with the LFR-AS-30 small reactor (30MWe) demonstration project starting land acquisition in Indre-et-Loire, France, and expected to be operational by the end of 2031 [3][5]. - Orano, a French nuclear fuel company, is seeking to increase uranium production in Mongolia and other regions to meet the growing demand from the nuclear power industry, especially after facing export issues from Niger due to political instability [4][5]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Development - Nuclear power is recognized as a crucial force in promoting energy transition due to its clean, safe, and efficient characteristics, with annual utilization hours exceeding 7000, the highest among all power sources [5]. - The report emphasizes the role of nuclear energy in addressing global climate change and enhancing energy security, with potential applications in desalination, hydrogen production, and medical protection [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on several companies: 1. Jiadian Co., which provides the main helium fan for fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and leads in nuclear pump products [5]. 2. Guoguang Electric, whose filter and cladding systems are key components of the ITER project [5]. 3. Lanshi Heavy Industry, covering upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [5]. 4. Kexin Electromechanical, which has developed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products and domestic alternatives for new fuel transport containers [5]. 5. Hailu Heavy Industry, servicing various reactor types including third and fourth-generation reactors and fusion reactors (ITER) [5]. 6. Jiangsu Shentong, which has secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly and ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [5]. 7. Xianheng International, whose products are used in the operation and maintenance of nuclear power [5].

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 02 月 23 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：盛虹芳纶产业园项目即将投产，内蒙 古宝丰 300 万吨烯烃项目正式建成 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 0.97%，创业板指数上涨 2.99%， 沪深 300 上涨 1%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.76%，申万化工指数上涨 1.19%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨幅前五的子行业分别为改性 塑料(17.83%)、电子化学品(8.39%)、膜材料(6.97%)、有机硅(4.94%)、橡胶制 品(4.58%)；化工板块跌幅前五的子行业分别为轮胎(-3.76%)、磷肥及磷化工 (-3.17%)、纯碱(-1.61%)、钛白粉(-0.97%)、复合肥(-0.62%)。 本周行业主要动态： 盛虹芳纶产业园项目即将投产。2 月 18 日，据央视报道，盛虹控股集团 在江苏连云港总投资达 158 亿元的芳纶产业园项目已经完成一期建设，预计下 个月正式投产。盛虹芳纶产业园致力于打造集芳纶原料-芳纶纤维-芳纶复合材 料研发、生产、销售于一体的世界级芳纶新材料基地。目前已完成国内最大单 套年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3]. Core Insights - The price of Suzano's hardwood pulp is set to increase by $20 per ton in March 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the paper industry supported by rising pulp prices and the upcoming peak season for cultural paper. Recommended companies include Sun Paper [2]. - The demand for AI glasses is expected to accelerate as the National Information Center initiates special testing and standardization for the industry, benefiting downstream lens companies such as Mingyue Lens, Kante Optical, and Doctor Glasses [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview - The light industry sector index decreased by 0.42% from February 17 to February 21, 2025, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.0% [14]. - Within the sector, the packaging and printing index increased by 0.21%, while the paper index fell by 1.78% [14]. 2. Home Furnishing - In January 2025, the sales revenue of large-scale home furnishing markets reached 109.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09% [5]. - Companies to watch include custom furniture leaders like Oppein Home, Sophia, and ZB Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mu Si and Gu Jia [5]. 3. Paper and Packaging - As of February 21, 2025, the price of double glue paper was 5,425 yuan/ton (+12.5 yuan), and copper plate paper was 5,710 yuan/ton (+110 yuan) [49]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated paper leaders like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved domestic sales and increased dividend ratios [5][60]. 4. Light Industry Consumption - The demand for AI glasses is anticipated to grow, with several models expected to launch in 2025, benefiting companies in the lens and channel sectors [5]. - The report highlights the potential for cultural products related to the IP "Nezha 2," estimating a market scale of 1 billion yuan [5]. 5. Export Chain - In January 2025, U.S. retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with furniture and home decor stores up by 3.7% [8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong business momentum and profitability, such as Jiayi Co., Jiangxin Home, and Yongyi Co. [8]. 6. New Tobacco Products - The report notes that recent U.S. regulations on e-cigarettes emphasize compliance and youth protection, which may benefit compliant products [7]. - Companies with strong partnerships in e-cigarettes and HNB products, such as Smoore International, are recommended [7]. 7. Textile and Apparel - The report mentions a three-year action plan to optimize the consumption environment, which will enhance quality and brand building in various sectors, including textiles and apparel [7]. - Recommended companies include leading brands like Hailan Home and Anta [7].

行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 02 月 23 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：要更加乐观 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周，国防军工指数上涨 2.74% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1%，相对超额 1.74pct，整体表现较好，或与行业本身的风格属性有一定关系，作为偏成 长型行业，在成长风格明显的同时享有风格溢价：同时我们可以观测到， 本周表现较好标的多为信息化方向，受益于 AI 及算力热度带动跑出明显超 额，且宏观层面也曾多次强调军工信息化发展，因为我们认为，新技术新 方向在十五五期间不容忽视。 资金层面，本周融资买入额及余额相较上周显著提升，且各军工 ETF 金额 及规模依旧呈现上涨趋势；杠杆资金和被动资金的积极变化均表现出对军 工板块信心稳固；考虑到军工行业 2025 年的强需求恢复预期，看好融资买 入额持续提升及被动资金持续净流入趋势。 估值层面，截至 2 月 21 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）61.57 倍，分位数 80.39%，考虑到 PE-TTM 现值的业绩基数恰好为 军工板块业绩触底阶段（2023Q4-2024Q3），叠 ...