Investment Rating - The report aligns with the views of CITIC Securities and maintains a positive outlook on SMIC, indicating that the company's performance is expected to meet market expectations [5][6]. Core Insights - SMIC's Q4 2025 performance and Q1 2026 guidance are in line with expectations, with a revenue increase of 4.5% quarter-on-quarter to $2.49 billion, surpassing the guidance of 0%-2% [6]. - The company anticipates that the supply of consumer electronic storage chips will ease within 9-12 months due to new capacity ramp-up and inventory release [7]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to remain flat at $8.1 billion, while depreciation expenses are expected to rise by 30% year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $2.49 billion, with a gross margin of 19.2%, which is within the guidance range of 18%-20% [6]. - The Q1 2026 revenue guidance is expected to remain stable at $2.49 billion, with a gross margin forecasted between 18%-20% [6]. Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - Capital expenditures for 2025 were $8.1 billion, exceeding guidance due to strong customer demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting equipment delivery [8]. - The company plans to increase its 12-inch wafer capacity by 40,000 pieces per month in 2026, while maintaining high capacity utilization to mitigate depreciation pressure [8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that SMIC will benefit from the deepening domestic substitution of mature and advanced process chips [9]. - Factors such as improved yield rates in advanced processes and progress in domestic deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) are seen as catalysts for growth [10].

Group 1: Financial Performance - 2025 Q4 organic revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, with total revenue down 6% to $1.1 billion, 2% lower than market consensus[5] - Standardized EBITDA fell by 26.8% to $167 million, with an organic decline of 24.7%[6] - Net loss attributable to shareholders was $105 million, worse than the expected loss of $30 million due to higher tax expenses[12] Group 2: Regional Insights - Revenue in China declined by 11.4%, with sales down 3.9% and revenue per hectoliter decreasing by 7.7%[12] - South Korea's revenue remained flat, with low single-digit sales decline, benefiting from a strong brand mix[12] - India experienced double-digit revenue growth driven by premium product offerings, enhancing overall market share[12] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - Economic recovery, product upgrades, and favorable summer weather are expected to boost beer sales[7] - Risks include slower-than-expected premiumization, loss of market share in the high-end segment, and unexpected cost inflation[8] - The company maintains a dividend payout of $750 million, with a payout ratio of 153% and a dividend yield of 5.3%[12]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed performance, with South Korea's KOSPI index rising by 3.1% to 5,522 points and Thailand's index increasing by 2.1% to 1,441 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by 0.9% to 27,032 points[17][9]. - In the U.S., major indices declined significantly, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.34% to 49,451 points, the S&P 500 down 1.57% to 6,832 points, and the Nasdaq falling 2.03% to 22,597 points[7][6]. Economic Indicators - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its global oil demand growth forecast, contributing to a 2.77% drop in WTI crude oil prices, closing at $62.84 per barrel[23]. - Strong U.S. employment data led to a decrease in gold prices, which fell below $5,000 per ounce, closing at $4,923.7[23]. Currency Movements - The British pound fell for three consecutive days, trading at 1.362 against the U.S. dollar, while the Japanese yen appreciated for four days, reaching 152.74 per dollar[23]. - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.1% to 96.93, while the dollar's value against the Chinese yuan was 6.901, up by 0.2%[22]. Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell to year-to-date lows, with the 30-year yield dropping to 4.73% after strong demand in a recent auction[26]. - The Asian bond market saw reduced trading activity, but some segments experienced narrowing spreads due to buying interest[26]. Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.86%, driven by a surge in the computing power industry[13]. - Conversely, large technology stocks in Hong Kong faced declines, with notable drops in companies like Alibaba and Tencent, while semiconductor stocks showed strength[9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Sea Group (冬海集团) has significant growth potential in online penetration in Brazil and Southeast Asia, supported by current market trends [5]. - The company is increasing its investment in AI and prioritizing the growth of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to expand its ecosystem and mitigate threats from competitors like Coupang [5]. - Management believes they can narrow the gap with existing competitors such as MercadoLibre in terms of product offerings [5]. - The gaming segment, Garena, may face short-term pressure on deferred revenue due to a high base effect in 2025, while the financial services segment shows significant growth potential [5][7]. Summary by Sections Growth Opportunities - Online consumption in key markets like Brazil and Southeast Asia has substantial growth potential, with Shopee prioritizing GMV growth and ecosystem expansion [5]. - Shopee plans to enhance average order value in Brazil by introducing high-priced products and establishing a fulfillment network [6]. - Management believes that new competitors like Temu and Shein will face challenges in scaling in the Brazilian market [6]. AI and Logistics Investment - Shopee will accelerate AI investments to improve platform efficiency and optimize logistics infrastructure to attract premium brands [5][6]. Market Dynamics - In Indonesia, e-commerce is evolving, with more brands expected to enter through online channels rather than offline [6]. - Shopee's logistics capabilities provide a competitive edge over TikTok, which relies on third-party logistics [6]. Financial Services - The financial services segment has significant growth potential, with plans to utilize AI for credit risk assessment, fraud detection, and loan approvals [5][6]. Key Catalysts - A clear game development roadmap and healthy operations will be crucial for the growth of the gaming segment, potentially leading to a revaluation of the company's multiples [8]. - Further consolidation in the e-commerce industry and news of new competitors exiting the market could benefit Shopee [8].

Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, adding 130,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%[4] - The U.S. labor market remains focused on recruitment contraction, with layoff intentions rising but actual layoffs not yet widespread[4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets reacted negatively to strong employment data, with the Dow Jones falling 66 points (0.13%) to close at 50,121 points, ending a three-day rally[9] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 reaching a new high, while the German DAX and French CAC 40 indices declined[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - Nickel prices rose by 2.23% to $17,880 per ton due to Indonesia's significant reduction in nickel production quotas from 42 million tons to 12 million tons[27] - Crude oil prices increased, with NYMEX crude oil rising 1.05% to $64.63 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions in Iran[27] Investment Insights - T-Mobile reported a 10% year-over-year increase in service revenue for Q4 2025, driven by a strong postpaid customer base, and raised its growth guidance[7] - Xiaomi's January vehicle deliveries fell to 39,000 units, down from over 50,000 in December, as the company prepares for the launch of its new SU7 model in April 2026[13] Bond Market Trends - The U.S. Treasury yields rose following the strong employment report, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.17%[30] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads widened by 2-3 basis points, reflecting a sell-off in Australian, Japanese, and Korean bonds[30]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.13% to 4,128.37 points, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains[16] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.58% to 27,183.15 points, with significant contributions from AI applications and entertainment sectors[11] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,188.1 points, up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively[9] Currency and Commodity Insights - The US dollar index fell for the third consecutive day, reflecting a 1.5% decline year-to-date, amid weak retail sales data[24] - International oil prices saw a slight decrease, with NY crude oil down 0.62% to $63.96 per barrel[24] - The Chinese yuan's appreciation is driven by increasing overseas earnings of Chinese companies and a global distrust of the US dollar[5] Investment Strategy - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to see profit margin improvements due to the yuan's appreciation, with less negative impact on companies expanding capacity overseas[5] - The report suggests focusing on short-term market memory, profit margin changes, and policy shifts as key investment strategies[5] Key Economic Indicators - US retail sales stagnated in December, indicating weak consumer spending, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[24] - The New York Fed reported that household loan default rates reached their highest level in nearly a decade in Q4 of the previous year[5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for MGM China [5]. Core Insights - The report aligns with the views of Citic Lyon Research, indicating that MGM International's recent management comments justify the higher licensing and brand fees charged to MGM China, although prior communications could have been handled better [5]. - The market is now focused on whether MGM China will increase its dividend payout ratio to offset the impact of rising costs on profitability, which Citic Lyon believes is a manageable threshold [5][8]. - The significant increase in licensing and brand fee revenue is attributed to MGM China's improved market share and Ebitdar, with total gaming revenue expected to grow 1.7 times to 16.2% and Ebitdar by 1.6 times to $1.203 billion by 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Licensing Fee Debate - The report discusses the rationale behind MGM International's decision to charge higher fees to MGM China, supported by reverse engineering analysis [5][7]. Dividend Payout Focus - Investors are expected to closely monitor the potential increase in the dividend payout ratio from 50% to above 53% to mitigate the effects of higher fees [8]. Catalysts for Growth - Continuous growth in the mid-market gaming segment, expansion of dividend payout ratios, and supportive Chinese policies are seen as factors driving profit recovery [9]. Company Overview - MGM China operates two casinos in Macau, focusing on high-quality mid-market strategies, with approximately 750 gaming tables, 1,920 slot machines, and 2,003 hotel rooms/suites [11]. Financial Metrics - As of February 9, 2026, MGM China's stock price is HKD 13.14, with a market capitalization of $6.39 billion and a consensus target price of HKD 18.17 [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Innovent Biologics [4]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics announced a milestone deal with Eli Lilly on February 8, 2026, granting overseas rights to certain oncology and immunology pipeline assets, receiving an upfront payment of $350 million and potential milestone payments of up to $8.5 billion [4][5]. - This transaction is viewed positively, reinforcing the recognition of Innovent's R&D capabilities by global pharmaceutical companies, which is a significant differentiator in the Chinese biotech sector [6]. - The company is expected to release at least nine Phase I/II data assets in oncology, cardiovascular/metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases between 2026 and early 2027, which could unlock substantial option value [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Innovent Biologics is a China-based biopharmaceutical company with a global perspective, focusing on the comprehensive development and commercialization of innovative drugs [10]. Recent Developments - The deal with Eli Lilly involves early development led by Innovent from proof of concept to Phase II, after which Eli Lilly will handle late-stage development and commercialization outside China [5]. - The assets involved in this transaction are undisclosed clinical projects, and the number of projects is fewer than the 11 preclinical assets involved in a previous deal between Hengrui Medicine and GSK [5]. Financial Performance - Innovent's product sales for Q4 2025 reached 3.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 60%, exceeding market consensus expectations [6]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for 2026 include updates on proof of concept data for IBI363 in frontline non-small cell lung cancer and the initiation of multiple global Phase III projects led by Takeda [7].

中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 10 日 星展集团 DBS SP 本文内容由 Kylie Kwok (郭凯欣) 提供 新加坡金融服务行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 2025 年四季度业绩：初步观点 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 9 日发布的题为《4Q25 result: First thoughts》的报告，星展银行（DBS）税后净利润较市场一致预期低 11%。尽管贷款增长强劲，净利息收入基本符合 市场预期。非利息收入低于预期，较市场一致预期低 15%，主因财富管理和交易业务弱于预期。运营成本控制良好。 拨备高于市场预期，因房地产敞口导致特别拨备增加，但一般拨备释放部分抵消了该影响。尽管新增不良资产大幅增 加，不良贷款率保持稳定。季度总股息为 0.81 新加坡元 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41% to 4,123.09 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.98% to 3,332.77 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 22.7 billion yuan[17] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.76% to 27,027.16 points, with major tech stocks rebounding, and total market turnover around 255.1 billion HKD[13] - European markets saw collective gains, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index up 0.7% and the DAX index rising 1.19% to 25,014.87 points, supported by positive economic data[11] Economic Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for Q1 highlights two key points: the impact of the longest Spring Festival holiday on consumption and policy direction from local two sessions[6] - Consumer recovery is characterized by a shift towards service alternatives, while commodity prices remain constrained by household balance sheet recovery[6] - The focus of policy has shifted from traditional infrastructure expansion to granular competition in sectors like low-altitude economy and computing power[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rose for two consecutive days, with NYMEX crude oil up 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[28] - The dollar index fell by 0.8%, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which rose 1.3% to $5,050.9 per ounce[28] - The Japanese yen initially fell but later gained 0.9% against the dollar, closing at 155.88[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield at 4.20%, down 0.4 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 4.86%[31] - Asian credit markets showed a strong sentiment with overall spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year[31] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.9% and the S&P 500 rising 0.5%[11] - The AI sector showed a 40% quarter-over-quarter growth in annual recurring revenue, indicating a positive trend despite initial skepticism[24] - The white liquor sector is expected to perform better than market expectations during the Spring Festival, driven by strong consumer demand[20]