Investment Rating - The report aligns with the views of CITIC Securities and CLSA, indicating a cautious outlook on the Asia-Pacific cosmetics industry, particularly in China and Japan [5]. Core Insights - Chinese consumers are taking longer to decide on beauty products, leading to potential sales growth as they expand their product portfolios, but price sensitivity is a key consideration [5]. - In Japan, cosmetic consumption is under pressure, with consumers accepting some degree of product downgrading, necessitating a focus on select winners for investors [5]. - The "golden age" of skincare is partially over, with evidence suggesting that companies can build sustainable brand recognition and defensible brand assets, but consumer attention has been diluted by an influx of new products [8]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The overall cosmetics market in China is expected to see year-on-year growth by 2025, with a slight improvement compared to 2024. Leading foreign brands have gained market share, but tourism retail sales have contracted, impacting operating profit margins and stock prices [6]. - The willingness of Chinese consumers to pursue high-end products has cooled for the first time, with brand loyalty at a historical low and price factors becoming increasingly critical [7]. Brand Dynamics - Brands need to adapt to changing consumer attitudes amid a trend of consumption downgrading, with 2026 identified as a pivotal year for the industry [7]. - Effective marketing strategies, including word-of-mouth recommendations and new product launches, continue to influence purchasing decisions [7]. Competitive Landscape - Japanese companies like Shiseido, Kose, and Kao are seeking to enhance profitability by shifting focus to e-commerce and reducing fixed costs, despite challenges from reduced Chinese tourist sales and changes in duty-free policies [9].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, indicating a clear roadmap for internationalization and significant revenue growth expected from completed business development transactions by 2026 [5][6]. Core Insights - CSPC is projected to convert its completed business development transactions into recurring revenue by 2026, supported by major research milestones and successful overseas development progress [6]. - The company has secured approximately $10.2 billion in upfront and milestone payments from significant partnerships with AstraZeneca and Madrigal, which are expected to enhance profitability from 2025 to 2027 [5][6]. - Key products such as KN026 and SYS6010 are anticipated to drive domestic business recovery and accelerate growth post-2027 [7]. Summary by Sections Business Development and Revenue - CSPC's completed business development transactions are expected to yield around $9 billion in free cash flow from milestone payments by 2030, with AstraZeneca's recent $1.2 billion non-refundable upfront payment being a significant contributor [6]. - The company has established eight innovative R&D platforms, transitioning from a raw material producer to a complex generics and innovative drug enterprise, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% in profitability from 2019 to 2023 [10]. Market Position and Financials - As of February 2, 2026, CSPC's stock price was HKD 9.15, with a market capitalization of $13.54 billion [13]. - The company ranks among the top ten in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry by drug revenue, with a significant portion of its income derived from the Asian market [11]. Catalysts for Growth - Key catalysts include the progress of overseas R&D projects, particularly the core product EGFR ADC, and the clinical development plans of major partners like AstraZeneca [8]. - The anticipated launch of innovative drugs and the entry of early-stage products into clinical phases are expected to validate the company's R&D capabilities [8].

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility, with the Chinese market collectively weakening, particularly in metals and semiconductors, while European markets showed a recovery driven by improved economic sentiment[3] - The U.S. stock market stabilized with a rebound, supported by better-than-expected manufacturing data, alleviating concerns over the next Federal Reserve chair[3] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices dropped over 4% due to reduced conflict risks in Iran and a sharp decline in commodity prices[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose for two consecutive days, reflecting positive manufacturing activity data, while precious metals continued to decline[3] Fixed Income Insights - U.S. Treasury yields increased slightly, with the yield curve flattening; the ISM manufacturing index reached its highest growth rate since 2022[3][30] - Oracle issued $25 billion in bonds to support cloud infrastructure expansion, contributing to a significant increase in global bond issuance[30] Asia-Pacific Market Trends - The Asia-Pacific stock markets generally declined, with South Korea's KOSPI index falling 5.3% and Indonesia's index down 4.9%[20] - India's Nifty index rose 1.1% following the U.S. reduction of tariffs on Indian goods, contrasting with the overall regional downturn[20] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with consumer staples leading the market with a 1.58% increase[9] - Conversely, the Hong Kong market saw significant declines in precious metals and technology sectors, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.23%[11] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index surpassed expectations at 52.6, indicating stronger economic momentum and reducing expectations for further monetary easing[30] - France's government successfully passed its budget, alleviating political uncertainty and stabilizing market conditions[30]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2026, Daiichi Sankyo reported a revenue increase of 15.1% year-on-year to ¥558 billion, and a net profit increase of 39.9% to ¥87 billion, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations[5] - Sales of Enhertu grew by 31.7% year-on-year to ¥188 billion, driven by its recent approval for first-line treatment of breast cancer[5] - Datroway sales increased by 52.9% quarter-on-quarter to ¥15.9 billion, prompting management to raise the full-year sales guidance for Datroway from ¥37.8 billion to ¥47 billion[5] Key Developments - The release of key data from four major Phase III trials for Datroway has been postponed, with the Avanzar trial results now expected in the second half of 2026[6] - The company is shifting towards biomarker-driven research, as evidenced by the recent launch of the Tropion-Lung17 trial, which uses TROP2 standardized membrane ratio (NMR) for patient selection[6] Risks and Challenges - Despite the efficacy of drugs like Enhertu, toxicity concerns remain, with potential FDA black box warnings limiting its use in broader patient populations[8] - The reliance on a few key products like Enhertu may pose long-term risks if clinical or regulatory outcomes do not meet market expectations[8] - The COVID-19 pandemic may impact sales due to patients avoiding hospitals, affecting the penetration of new products[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, indicating a stable performance with a V-shaped recovery expected in fiscal year 2027 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company, Screen, reported third-quarter operating profit of 31 billion yen, slightly below the consensus estimate of 32.1 billion yen, but in line with internal targets. The company has postponed the recognition of approximately 20 billion yen in revenue from Chinese customers to fiscal year 2027, which is expected to be offset by demand from foundries and AI-driven DRAM orders [4][5]. - Management anticipates a 10-20% growth in the global wafer fabrication equipment market in 2026, driven primarily by advanced foundries and DRAM manufacturers. The company expects its business, including backend equipment, to achieve similar market growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Screen's reportable segments include SE (semiconductor production equipment), FT (flat panel display production equipment), GA (graphic arts equipment), and PE (printed circuit board-related equipment) [8]. Financial Performance - The company’s semiconductor production equipment accounts for 82.7% of its revenue, with significant contributions from the Asian market, which represents 74.9% of total revenue [10]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned to benefit from robust customer capital expenditure outlooks and plans to enhance shareholder return policies through a healthier balance sheet [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that JD.com is facing significant challenges due to reduced subsidies for trade-in programs and increased competition in the Chinese market, leading to a moderate year-on-year revenue growth forecast for Q4 2025 and a substantial decline in adjusted net profit [3] - Electronic product sales are expected to decline year-on-year, partially offset by growth in daily necessities, with categories like supermarket goods, clothing, and healthcare products likely to continue double-digit growth [3] - JD.com is actively seeking new growth drivers, with a strong increase in quarterly active users driven by the expansion of its food delivery business [3] - The report anticipates growth in platform and advertising revenue for Q4 2025, supported by healthy GMV growth and improved advertising efficiency [4] - JD.com's logistics revenue is also expected to grow year-on-year, with food delivery business contributing to mid-single-digit growth [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - JD.com is the largest direct sales e-commerce retailer in China, with over 590 million active customers, holding the largest market share in electronic product sales while expanding into daily necessities [8] - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its third-party business, which helps to expand the supply of long-tail products [8] Revenue Breakdown - JD Retail accounts for 83.0% of total revenue, while JD Logistics contributes 14.6%, and new businesses account for 1.4% [9] Stock Information - As of January 30, 2026, the stock price is $28.48, with a market capitalization of $43.12 billion and a consensus target price of $39.95 [11]

每周投资策略 产品及投资方案部 ｜2026年2月2日 中信证券财富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 | 上周环球 大类资产表现 | (1) 印度市场焦点 | (2) 英国市场焦点 | (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观环境趋稳， | 預期英伦银行 | 本周议息会议有75%概率 | | | 经济有望复苏 | 本次议息按兵不动 | 加息25个基点 | | | 股票 | 股票 | 股票 | | 本周主要地区 | 等待情绪回暖； | 估值修复驱动，盈利增速向上； | 首选澳大利亚资源股； | | 经济数据公布日程 | Eternal；Vedanta | 巴克莱 ；倫敦交易所 | Northern Star；力拓集团 | | | ETF | ETF | ETF | | | 安硕核心SENSEX印度ETF | iShares MSCI英國ETF | iShares安硕MSCI澳大利亚ETF | | 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) | | | | 1 上周环球 股市表现 特 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Dixon Technology [4]. Core Insights - The outlook for Dixon Technology remains uncertain due to weak demand, high channel inventory, and delays in key approvals [4]. - The company's Q3 revenue decreased by 28% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of market expectations by 9% [5]. - Smartphone sales have been significantly impacted by high storage chip prices, with Q3 shipments at 6.9 million units and Q4 guidance of 7-7.5 million units [5]. - The company is making progress in its backward integration plans, with expected certifications for display modules and casings [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 FY2026 revenue was ₹106.7 billion, a 28% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and below market consensus [5]. - EBITDA was ₹4.1 billion, up 6% year-on-year but down 26% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations [5]. - Net profit was inflated due to one-time fair value gains [5]. Smartphone Sales - Q3 shipments were 6.9 million units, with a total FY2026 shipment forecast of approximately 34 million units, revised down from 40 million [5]. - Management remains confident about the Vivo joint venture obtaining PN3 certification, but there are risks for FY2027 shipments [5]. Backward Integration - The company has received ECMS certification for camera modules and optical modules, with display modules and casings expected soon [5]. - A pilot production plan for display modules is set to start in June, targeting production of 2 million notebook and 24 million smartphone modules [5]. Catalysts for Growth - New business expansions and customer acquisitions are expected to drive excess growth [6]. - Moving upstream in the value chain and strengthening backward integration are seen as positive factors [6].

环球市场动态 沃 什 被 提 名 新 任 联 储 主 席 股 票 周五A股涨跌不一，板块走势分化； 港股高开低走，大型科技股普遍走 弱；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪偏向 乐观；美股受特朗普提名沃什担任 美联储主席影响巨震，贵金属价格 暴跌。 $${\mathcal{H}}\;\;{\tilde{\chi}}\sqsubset\;I\;{\frac{\mathrm{{\hat{\mu}}}}{\left|\Phi\right|}}\;\;{\frac{\mathrm{{\hat{\mu}}}}{\left|\Phi\right|}}$$ 特朗普提名被视为立场相对鹰派的 沃什出任下一任美联储主席，上周 五美元大漲，贵金属近期凌厉涨势 逆转，黄金盘中创下 40 年来最大 跌幅，白银录得历史最大跌幅，抛 售潮波及更广泛的金属市场，伦敦 期铜大跌。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债收益率曲线趋陡。 特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席。 亚洲债市相对偏弱，利差走宽 1-3 个基点。本周将有季度再融资公告 和非农数据公布。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Takeda Pharmaceutical, indicating that there is more potential to be unlocked in the future [3][4]. Core Insights - Takeda reported a 4.2% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 FY2026, aligning with market expectations. Net profit surged by 335.7% due to improved profit margins and reduced non-operating costs, exceeding market forecasts [4]. - The company anticipates multiple late-stage pipeline products to be launched starting in FY2026, including Zasocitinib, which has shown competitive results in clinical trials for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis [5][6]. - The strong performance of Entyvio, with an 18% increase in sales to 265 billion yen, was noted, although the decline in Vyvanse sales by 42% partially offset this growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 FY2026, Takeda's revenue reached 1.192 trillion yen, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising to 104 billion yen, a 335.7% increase [4]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance for FY2026 despite fluctuations in product sales [4]. Pipeline Developments - Takeda's late-stage assets, including Zasocitinib and Dacomitinib, are expected to be submitted for new drug applications in FY2027, with promising clinical trial results reported [5][6]. - The company has also submitted a new drug application for rusfertide and plans to enter the application phase for oveporexton shortly [5]. Market Position - Takeda operates in various therapeutic areas, including gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience [8]. - The company’s revenue distribution shows that 29.6% comes from gastroenterology, 22.5% from plasma-derived therapies, and 16.4% from rare blood diseases, with significant contributions from the Americas [10].