Market Overview - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41% to 4,123.09 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.98% to 3,332.77 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 22.7 billion yuan[17] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.76% to 27,027.16 points, with major tech stocks rebounding, and total market turnover around 255.1 billion HKD[13] - European markets saw collective gains, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index up 0.7% and the DAX index rising 1.19% to 25,014.87 points, supported by positive economic data[11] Economic Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for Q1 highlights two key points: the impact of the longest Spring Festival holiday on consumption and policy direction from local two sessions[6] - Consumer recovery is characterized by a shift towards service alternatives, while commodity prices remain constrained by household balance sheet recovery[6] - The focus of policy has shifted from traditional infrastructure expansion to granular competition in sectors like low-altitude economy and computing power[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rose for two consecutive days, with NYMEX crude oil up 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[28] - The dollar index fell by 0.8%, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which rose 1.3% to $5,050.9 per ounce[28] - The Japanese yen initially fell but later gained 0.9% against the dollar, closing at 155.88[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield at 4.20%, down 0.4 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 4.86%[31] - Asian credit markets showed a strong sentiment with overall spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year[31] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.9% and the S&P 500 rising 0.5%[11] - The AI sector showed a 40% quarter-over-quarter growth in annual recurring revenue, indicating a positive trend despite initial skepticism[24] - The white liquor sector is expected to perform better than market expectations during the Spring Festival, driven by strong consumer demand[20]

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 Subaru 7270 JP CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 9 日 斯巴鲁的催化因素包括业绩超指引、削减电动车投资细节披露及混合动力车型进入美国市场。 投资风险 斯巴鲁业务面临诸多风险，难以在此详尽列举。主要风险包括汇率波动——由于出口生产与销售货币错配带来的交易 性影响，以及纯折算效应，汇率波动可能抬升或压低利润。此外，公司业绩易受销售市场销量影响，而销量易受消费 者信心、就业、油价、信贷可获得性、利率等宏观经济因素左右。竞争对手定价策略可能影响产品销售利润率。新产 品市场接受度、劳工行动、涉及产品安全的法规诉讼、贸易保护主义法规及环境问题亦构成风险。 日本汽车行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 关税与停产 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 7 日发布的题为《Tariffs and a shutdown》的报 ...

中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 Food & Life Companies 3563 JP 日本消费品行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 营收基础支撑上行趋势 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 7 日发布的题为《Revenue foundations fuel upswing》的报告，Food & Life Companies（F&LC）公司的一季度销售额同比增长 24%，营业利润 增长 45%，分别较市场一致预期高出 6%/21%，甚至超越市场最高预期 14%，主要得益于强劲的海外销售及利润率 改善。日本国内同店基础销售额显著增长，预示 2026 年的第二至四季度同店销售额将维持 6-10%的同比增速，足以 抵消大米价格上涨及日本用工成本上升的影响。下一阶段催化因素可能包括中国市场的进一步 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on NHPC, aligning with the views of CITIC Lyon Research, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth potential [5][8]. Core Insights - NHPC's third-quarter performance for FY2026 was impacted by tariff delays and project-related challenges, leading to a nearly 50% decline in net profit due to the lack of tariff approval for the Parbati II project [5][6]. - Despite a 16% year-on-year increase in generation (excluding new projects), NHPC's consolidated net profit declined due to fixed costs and operational challenges [6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in FY2027, with full profit recognition from the Parbati II project expected in the second half of the fiscal year [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - NHPC Limited is a mini Ratna I category and 'A' grade central public sector enterprise under the Ministry of Power in India, established in 1975, focusing on the efficient development of hydropower resources [11]. - NHPC operates 22 hydropower stations with a total capacity of 7GW, accounting for 15% of India's total hydropower installed capacity [11]. Project Progress - The Subansiri Lower hydropower project is expected to contribute 46% to NHPC's regulatory equity capital growth from FY2025 to FY2027, with full commissioning anticipated in the third quarter of FY2027 [7]. - The commissioning of the Teesta VI project has been delayed from the third quarter of FY2028 to the second quarter of FY2030 [7]. Growth Prospects - NHPC holds a 15% share of India's hydropower installed capacity and a 50% share in ongoing projects, positioning it for strong profit growth driven by government support for hydropower development and net-zero goals [8]. - The report highlights the potential for significant growth over the next decade, supported by large-scale projects like Parbati II and Subansiri [9].

每周投资策略 产品及投资方案部 ｜2026年2月9日 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价* | 1周变动 | 1个月变动 | 3个月变动 | 1年变动 | 本年变动 | 52周最低 | 52周最高 | 远期红利率 | 远期市盈率 | 远期EPS增长率 | | MSCI ACWI全球指数 | 1,042.82 | (0.1%) | 0.7% | 5.1% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 722.6 | 1,055.0 | 1.8% | 18.6 | 20% | | MSCI WORLD国际资本 | 4,528.99 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 3,155.7 | 4,572.6 | 1.7% | 19.7 | 18% | | MSCI 新兴市场 | 1,506.38 | (1.4%) | 2.7% | 8.1% | 36.7% | 7.3% | 982.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on KDDI's core business performance, with an expected profit impact of approximately 3% due to ongoing accounting investigations in its advertising subsidiaries [4][7]. Core Insights - KDDI's overall operating profit has shown an 8% year-on-year increase, with a 4% rise in ARPU and stable customer churn rates [4][5]. - The company has announced the establishment of a new AI business integration company named "iret," aiming to increase the number of AI engineers from 1,700 to 3,000 by FY2028 [6]. - The company is facing accounting issues related to its subsidiaries, which are expected to be resolved quickly without significant long-term impacts on cash flow or strategic plans [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - KDDI's revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, with operating profit also up by 8%. The personal business revenue grew by 2%, while the enterprise business revenue rose by 12.5% [5]. - The IoT connections increased by 19% to 66 million, and sales from Starlink/drone services surged by 1.6 times [5]. Mobile Business Developments - The mobile ARPU increased by 4% to 4,550 JPY, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%. The smartphone customer churn rate was 1.23%, slightly up from 1.21% in the previous quarter [6]. - The number of major users remained stable at 42.2 million [6]. Corporate Strategy and Future Outlook - KDDI aims to enhance ARPU revenue through 5G initiatives, targeting over 100 billion JPY profit growth in key areas while reducing costs by approximately 100 billion JPY [11]. - Catalysts for growth include stock buybacks, continued recovery in communication ARPU, and positive results from data center and financial services [8].

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 东京电子 8035 JP 本文内容由 Alex Wu (吴俊豪) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 日本科技行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 9 日 强劲势头 摘要 中 信 证 券 财 富 管 理 与 中 信 里 昂 研 究 观 点 一 致 。 根 据 中 信 里 昂 研 究 在 2026 年 2 月 7 日 发 布 的 题 为 《Strong momentum》的报告，东京电子 2025 年第三季度业绩不及预期，但公司上调 2026 财年指引，预计第四季度将出现 改善。公司同时宣布出售战略持股，并进行最高达 1,500 亿日元的股票回购。管理层预计，2026 年晶圆制造设备 （WFE）市场将实现至少 15%的同比增速，主要由 DRAM 和先进代工/逻辑芯片驱动，而 NAND 和中国市场整体增 长将持平。 第三季度业 ...

从 内 地 政 策 实 践 展 望 2026 年 施 策 重 点 股 票 环球市场动态 周五 A 股震荡小幅下跌，化工股延 续强势；港股集体下跌，科技股继 续承压；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪 在消化宏观消息后有所回暖；美股 大幅反弹，道指首次突破 5 万点， 科技股获得大量逢低买盘。 外 汇 / 商 品 伊朗称核谈判是好开始，但市场忧 虑谈判未能降低冲突风险，周五油 价先跌后翻红。美元指数偏软，以 及市场对美伊会谈的忧虑，支持金 价回升。 固 定 收 益 上周五美股及贵金属市场回暖，美 债获利回吐。密歇根大学消费者信 心意外升至半年新高。高市早苗取 得历史性选举胜利，日本国债收益 率上涨。本周将有非农及 CPI数据， 和美债标售。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 2 月 9 日 恩智浦 (NXPI US; 224.32 美元; 目标价: 257 美元) 汽车市场缓慢复苏。公司 2025 年四季度当季汽车 市场营收以及毛利率略低于预期，引起市场对于复苏节奏的担忧。然而，公司指出过去 90 天积压订单、分销库存等 内部信号均 ...

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 凯德腾飞房产信托 CLAR SP 新加坡房地产行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 持续优化资产组合 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 6 日发布的题为《Ongoing rejuvenation》的报告，凯德腾飞房产信托（CLAR）公布的 2025 财年每单位派息（DPU）较市场一致预期低 1.9%，主因股权融资收购项目存在时间差影响，预计将逐步消化。计入重建项目空置期后，出租率保持稳定。管理 层对 2026 财年租金调升率给出中个位数指引，主要来自新加坡与澳大利亚的物流资产。公司管理层计划今年进行 3 亿至 5 亿新元的资产剥离以支持收购，并不排除进一步股权融资。 凯德腾飞房产信托在 2025 财年营收同比增长 1.0%至 15.4 亿新元，得益于新加坡与美国的收购项目。成 ...

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 同程旅行 780 HK 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 中国互联网行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 纪律重于叙事逻辑 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 5 日发布的题为《Discipline over narrative》的报告，尽管美国有关具备自主行动能力的人工智能取代包括在线旅行社（ OTAs）在内的交易型平台的 叙事广泛流传，但中信里昂认为该风险在中国不会立即显现，主要因 OTA 对供应链有更严格的控制。分析预计公司 的酒店管理业务将在 2026 年营收增长中占据更大比重，但可能伴随着前期的支出增加。分析指出，同程不太可能受 益于携程反垄断调查，因为二者共享库存池。 谷歌新推出的自动浏览航班预订功能引发了全 ...