Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% at 3,864 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%[17] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.13%, supported by gains in the healthcare sector, while real estate stocks faced pressure[12] - European markets closed higher, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and progress in Ukraine peace talks, with the Stoxx 600 index up 1.09%[10] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April[6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a decline in overall consumer spending in recent weeks[6] - The UK government announced a tax increase plan, which has positively influenced market sentiment towards the British pound, which rose 0.6% against the dollar[4] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude rising 1.2% to $58.65 per barrel, supported by expectations of increased demand due to potential rate cuts[27] - Gold prices reached a one-week high, with a 0.6% increase to $4,165.2 per ounce, as the dollar weakened[27] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 99.6, reflecting the impact of rate cut expectations[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 2-year yield rising 1.6 basis points to 3.48% and the 10-year yield falling 0.2 basis points to 3.99%[31] - The UK budget announcement led to a significant rise in UK government bonds, with yields on 5-10 year bonds dropping by 5-7 basis points[31] - Asian high-beta bonds saw some bottom-fishing buying, while Chinese investment-grade spreads widened by 0-2 basis points[31]

环球市场动态 外 需 驱 动 型 亚 太 新 兴 经 济 体 边 际 回 暖 股 票 A 股周二延续涨势，算力、PCB 板 块领涨；港股走高，科技股普遍走 强；欧洲股市受俄乌和平进程推动 走强；美股科技股低开高走， Alphabet (GOOGL US) 创新高。 外 汇 / 商 品 报导指乌克兰原则同意和平协议， 周二油价下跌。白宫经济顾问哈塞 特据报是下任美联储主席的热门人 选，推动纽约期金造好。美国最新 公布的经济数据支持美联储下月再 降息，加上美联储下任主席的新闻， 利淡美元汇价，美汇指数跌穿 100。 固 定 收 益 美国国债全线上涨，10 年期收益率 一个月来首次跌破 4%。哈塞特有 望出任新美联储主席，加深市场对 未来降息的押注。5 年期美债拍卖 相对稳健。亚洲债市相对平稳，资 金流清淡。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 11 月 26 日 ▪ 近期美国与东盟外交活动频繁，亚太新兴经济体面临的关税格局基本明确，风险偏好有所回暖，特别是外需驱 动型经济体的短期经济表现好于此前预期，后续需关注美国最高法院对 ...

环球市场动态 " 十 五 五 " 辅 导 读 本 中 的 增 量 信 息 股 票 新一轮美联储官员发声较为鸽派， 美联储 12 月降息预期回升，全球 市场周一回暖。A 股小幅上涨，市 场继续关注中日紧张关系；港股止 跌，科技股反弹明显；欧洲股市收 高，俄乌和谈取得进展进一步提振 市场；美股大幅反弹，科技股上涨 明显推动纳指涨 2.7%，金龙中国指 数同样大涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员权衡乌克兰与俄罗斯达成和 平协议的前景，周一国际油价漲超 1%；美联储 12 月降息预期升温， 国际金价格上涨 0.4%。 固 定 收 益 周一美国国债上涨，长端领涨。美 联储官员再放鸽。市场上调对美联 储 12 月降息预期。2 年期美国国债 拍卖表现良好。亚洲债市交投清淡， 但表现稳健。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 11 月 25 日 ▪ 中央印发两本 "十五五" 辅导书籍，在经济增速方面，辅导书籍就 2035 远景目标所需的经济增速给出具体指 引，其中暗含引导物价回升或汇率在未来适度升值的诉求。在宏观政策方面，辅导书籍透露财政 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global equity markets experienced a decline, with the MSCI ACWI index down by 2.5% over the past week and 2.4% over the past month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index fell by 3.7% weekly and 3.6% monthly [6][8]. - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 5.1% last week, reflecting a significant downturn in technology stocks, indicating a clear reduction in market risk appetite [7][8]. - The South Korean KOSPI index decreased by 3.9% last week, with expectations of increased foreign and domestic investment in Korean stocks in 2026 [48]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Focus - The Hong Kong market is expected to see a recovery in earnings growth, with projections indicating that earnings growth will bottom out in 2025 and rebound thereafter, particularly in the technology sector [25][26]. - Key sectors to watch in the Hong Kong market for 2026 include technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors, with a focus on AI-related industries and innovative pharmaceuticals [27][28]. - Tencent Holdings and Alibaba are highlighted as key stocks, with Tencent expected to benefit from strong growth in gaming and advertising, while Alibaba is set to accelerate investments in AI infrastructure [31][32]. Group 3: South Korean Market Focus - South Korea's inflation rate rose unexpectedly to 2.4% in October, prompting expectations of interest rate cuts starting in January 2026 [40][41]. - The government is actively supporting policies aimed at improving corporate governance and shareholder returns, which is expected to catalyze a revaluation of the stock market [41][42]. - The consensus net profit growth for KOSPI has been revised upward from 22% to 34%, driven by strong performance in key export sectors such as semiconductors [46].

Market Overview - U.S. markets faced pressure with the Dow Jones closing at 46,245.4, down 1.1%[6] - Asian markets were affected by U.S. stock declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.38%[10] - European markets also saw declines, with the Euro Stoxx 600 down 0.3%[6] Interest Rate Expectations - New York Fed President Williams indicated a 70% probability of a rate cut in December, suggesting a potential 25 basis point reduction[4] - Market sentiment shifted towards rate cuts following Williams' dovish comments, with expectations for further easing in the near term[30] Sector Performance - The technology sector in the U.S. showed resilience despite concerns over AI, with major tech stocks like Alphabet rising 3.53%[8] - In Asia, the technology sector faced significant declines, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 3.21%[10] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices fell, with NY crude down 1.83% to $58.06 per barrel[26] - Gold prices increased by 0.48%, reaching $4,079.5 per ounce amid rising rate cut expectations[26] Economic Indicators - U.S. consumer confidence is nearing historical lows, as indicated by the Michigan University report[4] - The U.S. government is reportedly considering allowing NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, which could impact market dynamics[4]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, the highest in nearly four years[5] - The unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months, raising concerns about the labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting[5] - The market anticipates a 40% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in December due to the mixed signals from the employment data[29] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.2%, the S&P 500 down 1.6%, and the Dow Jones falling 0.8% after an initial surge[8] - European markets rebounded after five consecutive days of decline, with the Stoxx 600 index rising 0.4% and the DAX increasing by 0.5%[8] - The A-share market continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4% and over 3,800 stocks declining overall[15] Sector Analysis - In the U.S., the technology sector faced significant losses, with semiconductor ETFs down 4.22% and tech ETFs down 3.14%[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index saw a slight rebound of 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.58%[10] - The financial sector in A-shares showed strength, with major banks like Bank of China rising by 4%[15] Commodity and Bond Markets - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil down 0.5% to $59.14 per barrel, and gold prices decreased by 0.56% to $4,060 per ounce[26] - U.S. Treasury yields declined by 3-6 basis points, reflecting increased risk aversion in the market[29] - The spread on Asian bonds narrowed by 1-3 basis points, indicating a slight recovery in investor sentiment[29]

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% to 3,946 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25%[16] - U.S. stocks experienced volatility but closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.6% and the S&P 500 up by 0.4%[11] - European markets saw slight declines, with the Stoxx 600 index down by 0.03%[11] Economic Indicators - U.S. crude oil inventories increased, leading to a drop in international oil prices by over 2%, with WTI crude at $59.44 per barrel[28] - The U.S. dollar index rose above 100, reflecting a decrease in expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve[28] - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in August, with exports slightly up and imports experiencing the largest decline in four months[6] Corporate Performance - Nvidia (NVDA US) reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, exceeding guidance by 3.5%, with Q4 revenue guidance set at $66.3 billion[9] - Futu Holdings (FUTU US) achieved Q3 revenue of HKD 6.403 billion, a year-on-year increase of 86.3%[9] - Kuaishou (1024 HK) reported Q3 revenue growth of 14.2% to RMB 35.6 billion, with adjusted net profit up 26.3%[15] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.69%, marking a new low since early September[12] - The energy sector showed positive performance, with oil and coal stocks generally rising amid broader market declines[12] - The materials sector in A-shares rose by 2.9%, while the real estate sector declined by 2.2%[17] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain cautious as companies assess the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China[6] - Analysts suggest monitoring government equity participation opportunities as a potential strategy amid ongoing corporate-government conflicts over tariffs[6]

Market Overview - Chinese stock market continued to weaken, with military stocks rising amid Sino-Japanese tensions[3] - European stock markets generally declined, with investors awaiting U.S. economic data and Nvidia's earnings report[3] - U.S. stock markets also fell, driven by a pullback in technology stocks, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment[3] Forex and Commodities - Geopolitical risks persist, but signs show recovery in activities at a key Russian port, leading to a slight drop in international oil prices[4] - Gold prices fell as expectations for a Fed rate cut weakened, with international gold down 0.48% to $4,074.5 per ounce[4][26] Fixed Income - The bond market remained relatively calm, with U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing a slight rebound[5] - Amazon's $15 billion bond issuance became a market focus, attracting approximately $80 billion in subscriptions[5][30] U.S. Midterm Elections - The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, serving as a critical test for Trump's administration[6] - Current polls show the Republican Party leading in the Senate, while the House of Representatives remains uncertain[6] Key Stock Performances - Huazhu Group reported its best performance since 2023, with RevPar expected to turn positive in Q4 2025[8] - Atlassian anticipates a 22.5% year-on-year growth in cloud business revenue for FY2026, despite concerns over AI impacting developer roles[8] A-Share Market - A-shares fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3,972 points, amid rising military stocks due to Sino-Japanese tensions[16] - Lithium battery stocks surged following optimistic price forecasts from Ganfeng Lithium's chairman[16] Asia-Pacific Market - The Asia-Pacific stock market saw mixed results, with the Philippines and South Korea rebounding by 3.5% and 1.9%, respectively[20] - Chinese and Hong Kong markets experienced declines, both down 0.7%[20] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September is anticipated to be released on Thursday, influencing market expectations[4][26] - Fed officials expressed concerns over increasing risks in the labor market, with a 42% probability of a rate cut in December[30]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The US inflation is gradually cooling down as tariff disruptions diminish, with companies slow to pass on tariff costs, leading to a mild increase in prices of imported sensitive consumer goods [15][21][24] - AI remains a core engine driving earnings upgrades in the US stock market, with significant contributions from companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm [25][28][36] - The expected revenue growth for US tech companies in 2026 is robust, with a structural upward revision in earnings forecasts, particularly in the information technology sector [30][33] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK GDP growth is continuously slowing, with a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, necessitating interest rate cuts to support the economy [42][44] - Key stocks to watch include Rolls-Royce Holdings and AstraZeneca, both of which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and reduced tariff disruptions [49][50] - The UK stock market shows a notable performance disparity, with financial and defense sectors performing well, while consumer and energy sectors lag [48]

Market Overview - Global stock markets faced pressure due to a significant drop in US stocks, with the Nasdaq showing a slight recovery by the end of the trading day[2][9] - European markets weakened, with the Stoxx 600 index down 1.01% and the UK FTSE 100 index down 1.11%[9] - The Hang Seng Index fell 1.85%, with major tech stocks experiencing declines[11] Economic Indicators - China's October economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand, with fixed asset investment expected to improve moderately due to new policy tools[4] - The US labor department is set to release the September non-farm payroll report, which could impact market sentiment[4] Commodity and Forex Markets - Geopolitical tensions from Ukraine and Iran led to a 2.39% increase in international oil prices, with NY crude oil reaching $60.09 per barrel[26] - Gold prices fell over 2% as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut diminished, with NY gold priced at $4,094.2 per ounce[26] Fixed Income Market - UK bond yields rose significantly, with increases of 7-16 basis points, reflecting concerns over fiscal health[30] - US Treasury yields also increased, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.15%[30] Company Performance - Dingdong Maicai reported a slight revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year, but faced a 37.3% decline in non-GAAP net profit due to competitive pressures[7] - Monday.com achieved a 26% year-on-year revenue growth but provided a lower-than-expected Q4 guidance, causing stock price concerns[7]