[Table_Rating] 增持（维持） ◼[Table_Summary] 行业走势 [行业Table_Industry] : 通信 日期: shzqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师: 刘京昭 E-mail: liujingzhao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523040005 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《CPO 引领数据互联发展热潮，多环节设 备商有望受益》 ——2025 年 01 月 22 日 《AI 硬件行情开启，把握算力预期差方 向》 ——2025 年 01 月 16 日 《AI 设施发展持续加码，重视相关配套设 -5% 4% 12% 20% 28% 36% 44% 53% 61% 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 02/25 通信 沪深300 2025年02月07日 算力长逻辑不改，短期聚焦应用 ——通信行业周报（2025.1.20-2025.1.27） 建议关注：1）应用型互联网龙头：阿里、小米、腾讯、联想等； 2）ASIC/SOC：中 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the hardware sector is expected to take over from the software sector, becoming a resilient investment during market fluctuations, with a positive outlook for AI hardware leaders to see a valuation recovery to 30X [9] - The report emphasizes the significant reduction in training and inference costs for AI models, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek-V3, which is positioned as a cost-effective alternative to existing models [8] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3250.6 points with a weekly change of -0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10156.07 points with a weekly change of -1.33% [3] - The AI index reported a weekly decline of -2.56%, aligning with the overall market trend [3] Technology Industry Insights - Apple reported Q1 FY2025 revenue of $124.3 billion, a 4% year-over-year increase, with net profit reaching $36.3 billion, up 7% [7] - Microsoft reported Q2 FY2025 revenue of $69.632 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $24.108 billion, also up 10% [7] - The AI business at Microsoft has an annual revenue exceeding $13 billion, reflecting a 175% year-over-year growth [8] Industry Dynamics - DeepSeek's new model, DeepSeek-V3, has significantly reduced training costs to $5.57 million, compared to OpenAI's $78 million for GPT-4, making it one of the most cost-effective models globally [8] - The report suggests that the advancements in AI technology will encourage more end-users to adopt AI solutions, fostering innovation and efficiency [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several sectors, including AI new consumption scenarios, PCB benefiting from Nvidia and Apple supply chains, optical modules due to competitive dynamics, and satellite internet developments [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of Trump's "Gateway to the Stars" plan, which aims to invest $500 billion over the next four years to reshape the U.S. leadership in AI, creating 100,000 jobs and significant economic benefits globally [9] - The release of Doubao's large model 1.5Pro is noted for its enhanced capabilities, low training costs, and leading performance in multiple evaluation benchmarks [10] - The hardware sector is expected to take over from software, becoming a resilient investment during market fluctuations, with a target valuation of 30X for leading AI hardware companies [11] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3252.63 points, with a weekly change of +0.33% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10292.73 points, with a weekly change of +1.29% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2121.84 points, with a weekly change of +2.64% - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3832.86 points, with a weekly change of +0.54% - The China AI Index closed at 1291.34 points, with a weekly change of +5.72% [3] Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the potential of various sectors within the AI hardware landscape, including: 1. AI New Consumption Scenarios: Recommended companies include Hengxuan Technology, Sitwei, and Boshi Optical 2. PCB: Benefiting from the Nvidia and Apple supply chains, recommended companies include Dongshan Precision, Pengding Holdings, and Shiyun Circuit 3. Optical Modules: Highlighting a favorable competitive landscape, recommended companies include Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication 4. Satellite Internet: Focus on domestic and overseas developments, with recommended company Xinwei Communication [11]

证券研究报告 2025年2月6日 行业：宏观 如何理解积极财政？ ——财政专题 分析师：张河生 SAC编号：S0870523100004 核心观点 ◆2020-2024年公共财政支出持续未达到预算目标 ◆2019年后全国政府性基金支出持续低于预算支出 ◆社保基金账户收入常年超预算目标，滚存结余持续增加 ◆2025年更加积极如何体现 2 ◆ 支出规模=赤字规模+收入规模+调入资金与使用结余； ◆ 赤字率仅2020年（3.6%）较高外，其他均在3.2及以下；赤字规模在2020年大幅上移至3.7万亿以上，2021-2022年试图回归，但是2023- 2024年再次大幅上台阶； ◆ 2020、2021年收入还能分别超预算2500亿、5000亿左右； 2022、2023、2024年则分别低于预算6000亿、500亿与4000亿左右； ◆ 调入资金及使用结余2020年大幅增加后有所回落，但均在1.5万亿以上，远高于2018年以前的数千亿水平。 ◆ 政府性基金预算收入+调入与结余资金+特别国债+专项债+特定国有金融机构与专营机构上缴利润=政府性基金预算总收入；总收入并不是全 部用于支出； ◆ 2019-2021年，实际收入 ...

[Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 | [行业Table_Industry] : | 通信 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | shzqdatemark 2025年02月06日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: 刘京昭 E-mail: liujingzhao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523040005 联系人: 杨昕东 SAC 编号: S0870123090008 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -5% 4% 12% 20% 28% 36% 44% 53% 61% 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 02/25 通信 沪深300 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： | | | --- | --- | | 《CPO 引领数据互联发展热潮，多环节设 | | | 备商有望受益》 | | | | ——2025 年 01 月 22 日 | | 《AI 硬件行情开启，把握算力预期差方 | | | 向》 | | | | ——2025 年 01 月 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and highlights the performance release of leading companies in the new materials sector, particularly in electronic materials [4][10] - It notes that while the number of mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, the scale of these mergers reached a five-year high, increasing by 80.17% year-on-year [4][5] - The report suggests that leading cement companies are enhancing their profitability through mergers and acquisitions, both domestically and internationally [5][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Industry - The average national cement price was 514.48 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decline of 1.2% [7] - The cement output for the week of January 24, 2025, was 2.255 million tons, showing a 16.1% decrease week-on-week [7] - The report indicates a weak market demand leading to a further decline in cement prices before the Spring Festival [7] New Materials - The report highlights the strong recovery in global semiconductor and display market demand, benefiting companies like Feikai Materials, which expects a net profit growth of 83.66%-138.76% in 2024 [6][10] - It recommends focusing on leading electronic materials companies as they are expected to release strong performance results [10] Flat Glass - The report notes a 0.8% increase in the price of flat glass as of January 20, 2025, while inventory levels decreased by 49.7 million weight boxes [8] - The production of float glass remained stable, with a daily output of 157,400 tons as of January 24, 2025 [8] Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable, with 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated glass priced at 12 RMB/square meter and 19.5 RMB/square meter, respectively [9] Fiberglass - The price of fiberglass remained stable during the reporting period, indicating a steady market [9]

Market Performance - US stock markets mostly declined during the week of the Spring Festival (January 27 - February 2, 2025), with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling by 1.64% and 1.00%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.27%[2] - The Tokyo Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.90%, while the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 1.91%[2] Bond Market - US Treasury prices rose during the same week, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 5 basis points to 4.58% as of January 31, 2025[3] - The yield curve flattened, with yields on maturities of 3 years and above declining, while yields on 1-year and shorter maturities remained stable or increased[3] Commodity Prices - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a historical high of $2,812.05 per ounce, an increase of 1.27% during the Spring Festival week[4] - COMEX gold futures peaked at $2,829.00 per ounce[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar strengthened by 0.96%, while the offshore RMB depreciated by 1.07% against the dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 7.3221[5] - The onshore RMB exchange rate was 7.2650 as of January 27, 2025, indicating potential depreciation pressure post-holiday[5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50% during its January meeting, citing steady economic expansion and rising inflation[6] - Market expectations suggest the earliest rate cut could occur in June, with a probability of 63.5% for rates to fall below 4.25-4.50%[8] Trade Policy - On February 1, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order imposing additional tariffs: a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico[9] - Canada and Mexico may respond with countermeasures against these tariffs[9] Economic Indicators - Movie box office revenue during the Spring Festival period increased by 25.7% year-on-year, totaling 8.24 billion yuan, with an average daily revenue of 1.373 billion yuan[11] - In contrast, tourism prices in Hainan showed mixed trends, with team accommodation prices rising by 7.77% and individual accommodation prices declining by 6.77%[11] Risk Factors - Economic data or corporate earnings may underperform expectations, and US tariff actions could impact A-share investor risk appetite[12] - Domestic growth policies may fall short of market expectations[12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the emergence of the Deepseek-R1 model, which has disrupted the AI landscape, showcasing significant cost advantages over competitors like OpenAI [3] - The report emphasizes the rapid iteration of AI models by major companies, indicating a competitive landscape that is intensifying [4] - Financial results from major overseas companies, such as Meta and Microsoft, demonstrate strong growth and increased capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related sectors [5][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the computer industry, particularly the advancements in AI models and their implications for market competition [1] Key Developments - Deepseek released the open-source Deepseek-R1 model, achieving performance levels comparable to OpenAI's models while offering a cost-effective API pricing structure [3] - OpenAI and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen have also launched new models, indicating a robust competitive environment in AI model development [4] Financial Performance - Meta reported a Q4 revenue of $48.385 billion, a 21% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $20.838 billion, up 49% [5] - Microsoft reported Q2 revenue of $69.632 billion, a 12% increase, with Azure cloud business revenue growing by 31% driven by AI demand [8] - ASML's Q4 net sales reached €9.3 billion, with a gross margin of 51.7% and a net profit of €2.7 billion [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI computing, such as Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and others, as well as AI applications like Kingsoft Office and iFlytek [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - Domestic large model innovations are advancing, aiming to catch up with the US. Notable developments include DeepSeek's release of the DeepSeek-R1 model, which significantly enhances inference capabilities at a competitive price point compared to OpenAI's offerings [2]. - The AI agent landscape is accelerating, with companies like Zhiyun and OpenAI launching new intelligent agents that enhance user interaction and task completion efficiency [3][6]. - The competition for computing power is intensifying, with significant investments announced in AI infrastructure, including a $100 billion initial investment plan by major tech firms in the US [7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the computer index increased by 3.95%, outperforming major indices [1]. AI Computing Power - Companies such as ByteDance and MiniMax are making strides in AI model development, with models that outperform leading international counterparts in various benchmarks [2]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for AI computing power, with significant capital expenditures planned by major players in the industry [7][8]. AI Applications - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI computing power and applications, including Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and Kingsoft Office, among others [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that China's integrated circuit exports reached a historical high in 2024, with an export value of approximately $159.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [5] - The recovery in demand for smartphones and PCs, along with the rapid development of generative AI and smart vehicles, has positively impacted integrated circuit exports [5] - The report anticipates a comprehensive recovery in the semiconductor sector in 2025, with an emphasis on the potential for profit recovery among related companies [7] Market Overview - The SW Electronics Index increased by 2.82% from January 20 to January 24, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.29 percentage points [4] - Among the six sub-sectors, components, consumer electronics, and other electronics II showed significant gains, with increases of 6.96%, 6.06%, and 5.79% respectively [4] Smartphone Market Insights - In 2024, China's smartphone sales are projected to grow by 1.5%, marking the first increase since 2018, although the fourth quarter saw a decline of 3.2% year-on-year [6] - Huawei regained its position as the market leader in Q4 2024, with a 15.5% increase in sales, driven by the launch of the Nova 13 and Mate 70 series [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued semiconductor design stocks with real performance and low PE/PEG ratios, as well as companies in various segments such as AIOT SoC chips, analog chips, and semiconductor equipment materials [7]