促消费仍是经济工作主要抓手， 关注食品饮料底部机会 在今年政府工作报告中，2025 年要大力提振消费、提高投资效益， 全方位扩大国内需求等政策方向成为今年政策的重心之一。政策的乐观表 态为后续消费复苏奠定了基础，建议关注食品饮料底部机会。 今年政府工作报告提出，促进消费和投资更好结合，加快补上内需特 别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。政策围绕制 定提升消费能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境专项措施等三个方向延伸， 释放多样化、差异化消费潜力，推动消费提质升级。多渠道促进居民增收， 推动中低收入群体增收减负，完善劳动者工资正常增长机制。同时，计划 安排超长期特别国债 3000 亿元支持消费品以旧换新。 政策的乐观表态为后续消费复苏奠定了坚实基础，我们认为今年政府 工作报告在消费方面的刺激政策全面且到位，推动收入增长特别是中低收 入群体的减负，对基础消费有较为显著的作用。改善消费环境的措施对于 改善居民消费预期有较大的帮助。同时直接部署消费基金落实消费补贴也 将对消费形成直接的促进。 虽然从基本面角度食品饮料整体消费环境仍处于低迷状态，但是随着 刺激政策的不断落地经济复苏趋势确定，食品饮料消费有 ...

东兴晨报 P1 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 3 月 10 日星期一 分析师推荐 【东兴石油石化】油气开采和炼化及贸易：油价中枢有望中高位，驱动板块 或将保持较高景气度（20250310） 2024 年以来，海外通胀有所减缓，国内经济有所修复，油气开采板块盈利显 增，炼化及贸易板块营收小幅回落。2024 年以来，美国 CPI 同比上涨幅度逐 步下降，低于 3.0%，作为全球需求端代表美国的通胀压力有所减缓，通常意 味着美联储可能放缓加息步伐或维持较低利率，从而减轻美元走强对以美元 计价的大宗商品价格的压制，尤其对原油，是一个积极信号，有助于缓解估 值压力并稳定市场预期，从而间接支撑大宗商品需求。2024 年 10 月至 12 月，国内制造业 PMI 分别为 50.1，50.3，50.1，均略高于荣枯线 50，表明制 造业处于微弱扩张状态。随着国内继续采取措施支持经济复苏及缓慢修复， 对油气开采和炼化及贸易的需求也逐步提升。2024 年前三季度，油气开采板 块实现营业收入总计 3361.70 亿元，同比增长 6.01%；炼化及贸易板块实现 营业收入总计 55223.55 亿元，同比下跌 2.52%。 油气开采和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The coal sector has experienced a significant decline, with a cumulative drop of 13.72% from the beginning of 2025 to February 28, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.58 percentage points [3][11]. - The supply and demand dynamics for thermal coal are weak, but policy measures and initiatives from coal associations suggest that coal prices may stabilize in the second quarter of 2025 [4][27]. - The current price of thermal coal has decreased from 765 RMB/ton at the beginning of 2025 to 694 RMB/ton by the end of February 2025, marking a four-year low [13]. - The long-term coal contract policy is crucial for stabilizing coal prices, as it has shown to be less volatile than spot prices [16][22]. - Despite challenges from renewable energy, thermal power generation remains resilient, with expectations that coal-fired power will continue to be a primary energy source [24][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal sector's performance has been notably poor, ranking last among 30 industry categories [11]. - The report highlights the significant price drop in coal, which is attributed to weak supply and demand conditions [4][13]. 2. Fundamental Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stop declining and stabilize due to policy interventions and industry self-regulation [4][27]. - The coal industry associations have issued a joint statement advocating for strict adherence to coal contracts and production controls to improve market conditions [27][28]. 3. Valuation Outlook - The coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at 9.77, which is above its historical low of 8.35 but still below the median of 13.20, indicating a low valuation [5][29]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 1.29, also below the median of 1.67, suggesting that the sector remains undervalued [32]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector, characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, is suitable for investment, particularly in light of ongoing policy support for long-term capital inflows [6][39]. - Specific investment targets include leading companies with stable earnings such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Electric Power Investment and New集 Energy [39].

房地产周报20250310: 新房及二手 房销售增速有所放缓 2025 年 3 月 10 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 新房及二手房销售增速有所放缓，住建部表示将持续推进城市更新。 房管局数据： 28 城新房本周销售面积(03/02-03/08)为 273.6 万平，前值(02/23-03/01)为 353.8 万平。 28 城新房年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/08)同比增速为 11.05%，前值(1/1-03/01) 为 9.83%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 14.24%，上个月整月为 49.26%。 13 城二手房本周销售面积(03/02-03/08)为 211.1 万平，前值(02/23-03/01)为 204.4 万平。 行 业 研 13 城二手房年内累计销售面积 (1/1-03/08)同比增速为 30.47%，前值 (1/1-03/01)为 28.97%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 26.50%，上个月整月为 84.83%。 12 城 新 房 及 二 手 房 本 周 销 售 面 积 (03/02-03/08)为 324.3 万平，前值 (02/23-03/01)为 356.8 万平。 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [2][35]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the context of electric grid investments, which are projected to exceed 825 billion yuan in 2025. This growth is primarily driven by the rapid integration of renewable energy sources [3]. - Companies like Sanwang Communication are actively positioning themselves in the power communication sector, providing solutions that enhance operational efficiency and reduce energy consumption [3]. - Recent product launches at MWC2025, such as the new generation intelligent computing center by Aofei Data and the "Nebula" series AI modules by Guanghetong, highlight the industry's innovation and potential for growth [5][24][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication index rose by 2.81% during the week of March 3-7, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [4][15]. - Key stocks in the communication sector showed varied performance, with China Mobile increasing by 6.45% and ZTE Corporation decreasing by 1.18% [22]. Key Announcements - Aofei Data plans to raise up to 1.75 billion yuan through a private placement to develop a new generation intelligent computing center [5][24]. - MWC2025 showcased significant advancements, including the SG885G-WF edge computing module by Yiyuan Communication, which offers high computational power for service robots [5][24]. - Guanghetong introduced the "Nebula" series AI modules, which provide diverse computational configurations to meet various application needs [5][25]. Financial Metrics - The communication industry comprises 117 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 498.64 billion yuan and an average P/E ratio of 23.98 [7].

Employment Market Overview - The overall employment market in the U.S. is acceptable but remains fragile, with supply-demand tightness and liquidity both below pre-pandemic peaks[4] - The labor market's tightness level was at 100.42% in December, slightly lower than the historical high from May 2018 to February 2020[10] - The voluntary resignation rate is around 2%, lower than the pre-2007 crisis level of 2.1%, indicating decreased labor market liquidity[10] Wage and Employment Trends - Actual wage growth remains relatively high year-on-year, supporting consumer spending, despite a decline in average weekly hours worked[10] - The proportion of part-time workers has increased, surpassing levels seen before the pandemic[10] - Initial jobless claims have slightly exceeded expectations, suggesting potential short-term economic downturn if this trend continues for four weeks[10] Sector-Specific Insights - Non-farm payroll data shows significant differences between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors, with non-cyclical sectors like government and healthcare remaining stable[4] - The demand for low-skilled jobs is rising, as indicated by the increasing labor participation rate among low-education groups, while high-skilled job demand appears weaker[4] - Recent trends indicate a slight recovery in cyclical industries, but a clear upward trend is not yet evident[4] Macroeconomic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data related to employment has not shown significant improvement, with manufacturing PMI recovery driven more by supplier payments and price increases rather than employment or new orders[5] - The consumer confidence index has declined, and inflation expectations have risen, indicating potential economic uncertainty[5] - The Trump administration's fiscal scrutiny and layoffs may impact non-farm employment data in the short term, particularly affecting contractors and NGOs[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][54]. Core Insights - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to see increased profitability due to a recovery in domestic economic conditions and a decrease in overseas inflation, while the refining and trading sector may experience a slight revenue decline [3][15]. - Oil prices are projected to stabilize at a mid-to-high level, which will support the overall performance of the oil and gas extraction and refining sectors [4][7]. - The report highlights that the average Brent crude oil price for 2024 is expected to be around $82.72 per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.70% [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic Context - Since 2024, inflation in the U.S. has decreased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by less than 3.0%, which is a positive signal for commodity prices, particularly crude oil [3][14]. - Domestic manufacturing PMI figures for October to December 2024 are slightly above the neutral line, indicating a weak expansion in the manufacturing sector, which supports the demand for oil and gas [15] 2. Oil Price Review - From January to December 2024, oil prices fluctuated between $69.19 and $91.17 per barrel, with an average monthly price of $80.8 per barrel [4][20]. - In early 2025, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $78.34 in January and $75.55 in February, showing a month-on-month decline [4][20]. 3. Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to gradually increase in the first half of 2025, despite a slight drop in oil price levels, primarily due to OPEC+ production adjustments and a rebound in U.S. shale oil output [5][22]. - OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts to stabilize oil prices amid fluctuating global demand and increased production from non-OPEC countries [6][24]. 4. Company Performance - The oil and gas extraction sector reported total revenues of CNY 336.17 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.01%, while the refining and trading sector saw revenues of CNY 55,223.55 billion, down 2.52% [3][33]. - Companies like CNOOC and PetroChina have shown strong profitability, with CNOOC achieving a net profit of CNY 116.66 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year [9][39]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high dividends and growth potential, highlighting CNOOC and China National Petroleum as key investment targets due to their strong dividend yields and growth prospects [10][42]. - The expected average dividend yields for major companies in the sector from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 4.66% for PetroChina, 5.19% for Sinopec, 4.34% for CNOOC, and 6.50% for China National Offshore Oil [10][40].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴电子】人形机器人专题系列（一）：传感器的技术路径、竞争格局与 产业重构（20250306） Q1：人形机器人传感器是什么？ 传感器是机器人感知物理世界的窗口，也是 机器人迈向智能化的基础。包含各类视觉传感器、听觉传感器、触觉传感器、 力传感器等，用于感知环境，获取关于周围世界的信息。视觉传感器是具有 图像采集处理、数据传输能力的功能专门化嵌入式视觉系统，可实现目标识 别定位、尺寸测量、缺陷检测、条码识别等功能；人形机器人的听觉传感器 主要为麦克风，包括声音接收器、信号处理器和音频处理软件等部分；力传 感器主要为力矩传感器，其可以在各种旋转或非旋转机械部件上对扭转力矩 感知进行检测，将扭力的物理变化转化为精确电信号；触觉传感器可覆盖于 人形机器人三维载体表面，实现与环境接触力、温度、湿度、震动、材质、 软硬等特性的检测。MEMS 传感器是一种集成了微型机械、电路、传感器及控 制器的复杂系统, 具备微米甚至纳米级尺寸, 在灵敏度、响应速度、尺寸和 成本方面具有独特优势。 Q2：人形机器人大概需要多少传感器? 以特斯拉的人形机器人为例，一台人 形机器人需要 1 套视 ...

DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2025年第10周 P1 首席周观点：2025 年第 10 周 报告设定的 2025 年的 GDP 目标为 5%，财政赤字率 4%，以及 CPI 目标 2%，均符合市场预期。 受特朗普政府关税政策影响，今年的出口或有所承压。而今年地产跌幅预计略有收窄，对 GDP 的拖累略好于去年。出口承压和地产企稳或可形成一定对冲。消费方面，今年对消费的支持力 度也强于去年，消费的高基数效应也消失。投资方面，随着今年财政赤字率的扩大，投资力度 或可保持一定水平。科技方面，Deepseek 激发了国内对以人工智能、芯片、机器人为代表的高 科技投资。综合来看，考虑到海外地缘政治特别是全球产业链的不确定性，今年经济增速目标 虽与去年的 GDP 持平，但仍需积极的宏观政策支持。 CPI 目标为近几年新低。CPI 目标的下降表明政策制定者对国内低通胀环境有了更为清晰的认识。 虽然短期内价格达到 2%仍有不确定性，但目标的下降体现了宏观政策的稳定性将有明显的提 升。特别是货币政策或将较长时间处于较为宽松的环境，金融体系将较长时间处于低利率环境。 政策基调的连续性较强。 ...

证券行业：政策工具箱持续优化， 资本市场改革稳步推进 事件：证监会吴清主席在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上答记者 问，就近一年政策推出和实施情况，未来证监会主要政策发力方向和资本市场 运行情况进行了梳理和总结。 点评： 新"国九条"发布以来，证监会多项政策齐发强监管、促改革、保护投资者权 益。强监管方面，发行上市、信息披露、公司治理、并购重组、交易、退市、 股东减持等行为的监管制度机制进一步健全；促改革方面，出台"科技十六条" "科创板八条""并购六条"以及资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"实施意见 等举措；保护投资者权益方面，着力推动上市公司分红、回购，并持续引导中 长期价值投资资金入市，提升投资者获得感。 从资本市场运行情况看，近一年已呈现诸多积极变化。一是入市长钱明显增加， 央行指导证券公司、基金公司开展两批互换便利操作，金额超过 1000 亿元， 超 400 家上市公司公开披露股票回购增持再贷款信息，贷款额度上限近 800 亿元，金融监管总局启动了第二批保险资金长期股票投资试点，总金额超过 1100 亿元，据统计，2024 年 9 月以来，保险资金、各类养老金在 A 股市场净 买入约 2900 亿 ...