Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - From July 14 to July 20, there were 77 M&A events involving listed companies, with 27 classified as significant M&A transactions[9] - Out of the total M&A events, 12 were completed, including 1 significant M&A transaction involving Baota Industrial[9] - There were 3 failed M&A attempts by listed companies, specifically by Lixing Co., Hongming Co., and Zhongji Health[15] Group 2: Policy Updates - On July 18, Tianjin's financial authorities released measures to support M&A, focusing on 12 key industrial chains and establishing a resource pool for quality M&A targets[7] - The Shanghai G60 Science and Technology Innovation Group held a summit on July 16 to discuss M&A and overseas expansion in the context of innovation and industry leadership[7] Group 3: Market Performance - During the week of July 14 to July 20, the restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 0.27%[19] - Over a mid-term view, the restructuring index's rolling 20-day return shifted from negative to positive compared to the Wind All A index[19] Group 4: Control Changes - Two listed companies reported changes in actual control during this period, with Shenjian Co. and Hualan Group undergoing ownership transitions[17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The implementation of L2 national standards is expected to significantly boost the company's performance, with revenue forecasts for 2025 set at 5.47 billion yuan, and increased projections for 2026 and 2027 to 7.00 billion and 8.39 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 17% and 28% [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the automotive testing industry, focusing on technical services driven by smart and connected vehicles, with a revenue share from automotive technical services expected to rise to 87.82% in 2024 [8][14] - The company has established a comprehensive testing and evaluation system for smart and connected vehicles, which is crucial for gaining industry pricing power [8][59] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 4.70 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.65%, and a net profit of 907.78 million yuan, reflecting an 8.56% increase [3] - The report anticipates a steady increase in net profit, with estimates of 1.11 billion yuan for 2025, 1.39 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.72 billion yuan for 2027, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 22.67%, 25.14%, and 23.21% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The automotive testing industry is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of mandatory testing for smart and connected vehicles, which is expected to expand the market by 50% [8][56] - The company has invested over 2.3 billion yuan in its East China headquarters, which is set to commence operations by the end of 2025, enhancing its capacity to meet the demands of mandatory testing [8][24] Company Development and Strategy - The company has a rich history as a third-party automotive testing leader, established in 1965, and has undergone several transformations to enhance its capabilities [14][15] - The company is actively expanding its international presence and has formed partnerships with various organizations to promote standard recognition and market development [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, with a specific focus on the beverage sector and new consumer retail [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline in holdings, primarily due to a significant reduction in the allocation to liquor, particularly high-end brands [10][11]. - The report emphasizes a shift towards consumer staples and highlights the resilience of leading companies in the beverage sector [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Decline in Food and Beverage Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 5.5%, down 1.82 percentage points from Q1 2025 [10][14]. - The decline in liquor holdings is attributed to ongoing pressure on the liquor market, with a notable drop in the allocation to high-end liquor brands [11][12]. 2. Liquor Sector Adjustments - The allocation to liquor decreased by 1.96 percentage points to 3.98% in Q2 2025, with major consumer funds showing a significant reduction in liquor holdings [12][18]. - The report identifies a trend of reduced holdings in high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while some consumer staples have seen increased allocations [23][28]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five key sectors: beverages, new consumer retail, dairy, liquor, and health products [28]. - Specific recommendations include buying opportunities in Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as the market adjusts to current conditions [28].

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·非银金融 非银金融行业点评报告 公募持仓观察：非银板块景气度持续上行， 细分行业均获增持——25Q2 非银板块公募 持仓分析 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 22 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600123090002 《权益 ETF 系列：大盘预警信号消失， 后续可能持续上涨，关注高景气投资 方向》 2025-07-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -3% 4% 11% 18% 25% 32% 39% 46% 53% 60% 2024/7/22 2024/11/20 2025/3/21 2025/7/20 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《券商中报确认高增长，保险业绩亦 值得期待》 2025-07-20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 事件：2025 年公募基金二季报发布完毕，2025 年二季度末公募基金股 票投资中非银金融行业总持仓 1.93%（含同 ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the supply and demand for direct financing markets, such as Sci-tech bonds, are expected to continue expanding, supported by structural policy tools [1][9][10] - Recent US economic data shows marginal improvement, with consumer confidence and retail sales exceeding expectations, leading to a rise in US stocks [1][10] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 0.62bps to 4.416% over the week, influenced by mixed economic signals and dovish comments from Fed officials [1][11] Fixed Income - The bond yields slightly decreased this week, recovering from the previous week's rise due to restrictions on bond purchases by rural commercial banks, but the "stock-bond seesaw" effect limits the downward space for yields [2][14] - The report highlights concerns regarding the convertible bond market, including a potential reduction in net supply and the impact of profit-taking by insurance and wealth management products [2][17] Company Analysis - UBTECH Robotics has secured the largest procurement order for humanoid robots, accelerating its commercialization process. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan, respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [5] - Jingcheng Machinery has laid the foundation for a new production base for 600,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates, enhancing its competitive edge in the market. The company aims to benefit from the transition to 8-inch substrates, which can reduce costs significantly [5][6] - Great Wall Motors reported H1 2025 results that met expectations, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 219.5 billion, 237.6 billion, and 253.8 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Tuojing Technology anticipates significant growth in Q2 2025, with revenue expected to be between 1.21 billion and 1.26 billion yuan, driven by new product contributions and improved gross margins [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a continuous adjustment in transaction volumes, prompting the construction of new urban infrastructure [1] - The central urban work conference indicates a shift in urban development from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, focusing on seven key tasks [1] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Viewpoints - The current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, marking a potential turning point in the current cycle [8] - Recommended companies include state-owned enterprises and quality private firms such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [8] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1. Real Estate Market Situation - New home sales in 36 cities decreased by 9.6% week-on-week and 25.0% year-on-year, with cumulative sales of 374.5 million square meters from July 1 to July 18, down 21.6% year-on-year [13] - The second-hand housing market saw a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week and 5.8% year-on-year, with cumulative sales of 395.6 million square meters from July 1 to July 18, down 6.7% year-on-year [18] 2.2. Land Market Situation - Land supply in 100 cities from July 14 to July 20 was 1,823.4 million square meters, down 14.0% month-on-month and 27.4% year-on-year [39] - The average land price was 1,067 yuan per square meter, down 27.0% month-on-month and 30.1% year-on-year [45] 2.3. Real Estate Industry Financing Situation - In the week of July 14 to July 20, real estate companies issued 8 credit bonds totaling 7.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 65.5% week-on-week [46] - Year-to-date, real estate companies have issued a total of 326 credit bonds amounting to 269.37 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6% year-on-year [50] 3. Market Review - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market indices, ranking last among 29 sectors with a decline of 2.1% [4] 4. Policy Tracking - The report highlights the government's focus on urban renewal and infrastructure improvements as part of its strategic objectives [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project presents significant opportunities for the engineering machinery industry, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an expected annual power generation of 300 billion kWh, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [1][2] - The project is expected to drive domestic demand for engineering machinery, with a projected demand increase of 100-150 billion yuan annually, potentially rising to 150-200 billion yuan when considering electrification and automation trends [2] - The overseas market for engineering machinery is showing signs of recovery, with a significant portion of profits (over 80%) coming from international markets, particularly in regions like Indonesia, South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe [3] Summary by Sections Yarlung Tsangpo Project Impact - The Yarlung Tsangpo project involves the construction of five hydropower stations with a total installed capacity of 60 GW, significantly boosting the demand for various types of engineering machinery [1][2] Electrification and Automation - The high-altitude environment of the project site is expected to favor the adoption of electric and unmanned machinery, enhancing the value of each unit and increasing the overall market size beyond initial estimates [2] Profitability and Market Trends - The report anticipates a profit increase of 30-40 billion yuan annually for major machinery manufacturers, with an overall profit estimate of 170 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a profit elasticity of over 20% [2] - The domestic non-excavation segment is expected to recover, reducing profit drag on major manufacturers, with gross margins projected to improve from 15% to 20% by mid-2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that large infrastructure projects will boost domestic demand, indicating a clear upward trend in the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has won a significant procurement order for humanoid robots, valued at 90.51 million yuan, marking it as the largest order globally for humanoid robots [2] - The company is at the forefront of humanoid robot commercialization, with multiple products gradually being deployed [2] - The company has developed a unique group intelligence technology that facilitates the large-scale deployment of humanoid robots in industrial settings [3] - The Walker S2 robot features a pioneering hot-swappable autonomous battery replacement system, enabling continuous operation [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at 20.16 billion yuan for 2025, 28.23 billion yuan for 2026, and 37.05 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 17, 12, and 9 times [5] - The company is projected to have a net profit of -1.03 billion yuan in 2025, improving to -0.74 billion yuan in 2026 and -0.23 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.33 yuan in 2025 to -0.52 yuan in 2027 [5]

Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index set to break previous highs, indicating a strong support level below[2] - Recent weeks have seen a phase of capital inflow into technology and internet stocks, providing momentum for the overall market[2] Investment Strategies - Domestic funds, particularly insurance capital, are considering increasing their positions in dividend stocks, with a focus on those with potential for mid-year dividends and relative affordability[2] - There is a growing interest in sectors with performance potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics, which are perceived as undervalued[2] Global Market Observations - The U.S. stock market continues to show resilience, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 0.59% amid a backdrop of strong macroeconomic fundamentals[5] - Recent U.S. retail sales data for June showed a surprising month-on-month increase of 0.6%, reversing a two-month decline, driven by a rebound in auto sales[5] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook remains cautious, with speculation about potential interest rate cuts in July, influenced by inflation nearing target levels and a weaker labor market[6] - Trade policy uncertainties are gradually easing, with recent agreements reducing tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%[6] Capital Flows - Global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $25.728 billion, with the U.S. leading at $13.49 billion, while emerging markets, particularly China, experienced a net outflow of $430 million[12] - The financial sector attracted the most capital inflow, while healthcare and consumer sectors saw significant outflows[12] Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 5.5% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.8%[7] - Year-to-date performance shows the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 16.2%, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index is up 9.7%[17] Risk Considerations - There are concerns about rising overseas risks, particularly regarding the continued appreciation of U.S. dollar assets, which may divert global funds away from Chinese assets[5] - The potential for a rapid U.S. economic downturn remains a risk, alongside geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating trade policies[14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The government is strengthening the enforcement of refined oil consumption tax collection and continuing to promote the reform of refined oil consumption tax, which is expected to increase the concentration of the refining and sales industries. Legal enterprises will face a fairer competitive environment, while illegal enterprises may be gradually eliminated [4][68][71]. - The reform of refined oil consumption tax will bring more intense market competition, forcing refineries and gas stations to improve service quality and operational efficiency. In the long term, this will contribute to the healthy development of the entire industry, improve resource allocation efficiency, and ultimately benefit consumers [71]. - Relevant investment targets include Sinopec/China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK) and PetroChina/China National Petroleum Corporation (601857.SH/0857.HK) [8][71]. Summary by Directory 1. Refined Oil Consumption Tax Basic Situation 1.1 Summary Points of Refined Oil Consumption Tax - Consumption tax is an important tax in China's current tax system, aiming to regulate product structure, guide consumption direction, and ensure national fiscal revenue. China has been levying consumption tax on gasoline and diesel at the production stage since 1994 [11]. - The 2024 consumption tax reform aims to shift the collection link to the sales end and gradually transfer it to local governments, which is expected to accelerate the exit of backward refinery capacities and benefit state - owned refineries. However, there are difficulties in implementing this policy, such as affecting the profits of gas stations and increasing the requirements for national tax collection and management [11]. 1.2 Policy Innovations of Refined Oil Consumption Tax (2012 - 2024) - **2012 - 2013**: The State Administration of Taxation issued documents to strictly define the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection to prevent tax evasion by refineries through "name - changing sales". However, due to various reasons, the implementation effect was not obvious [14][17][18]. - **2018**: The State Administration of Taxation issued Document No. 1, which required all refined oil invoices to be issued through the refined oil invoice issuance module in the new VAT invoice management system. This policy forced some backward refinery capacities and illegal blending capacities to be eliminated [20][21][24]. - **2021**: The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to levy import - link consumption tax on some refined oil products, expanding the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection [33][34]. - **2023**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to adjust the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection [36][37]. - **2024**: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to shift the refined oil consumption tax collection link to the sales end and gradually transfer it to local governments. However, there are implementation difficulties, such as affecting gas station profits and increasing tax collection and management challenges [38]. 1.3 China's Refining Capacity Situation - In 2024, China's total refining capacity was about 955 million tons, showing a pattern of three major forces: central state - owned enterprises, other state - owned enterprises, and private refineries [39]. - After the implementation of the 2018 consumption tax new policy, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the gasoline price increased. Some high - cost refineries were forced to shut down, while some high - quality refineries turned to formal sales channels [40][41]. - Shandong plans to integrate and transfer the refining capacities of local refineries below 300 - 500 million tons by 2022 - 2025 and build large - scale refining integration projects [55]. 1.4 China's Gas Station Situation - In 2023, there were about 123,000 gas stations in China, mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other regions. Among them, private gas stations numbered about 64,000, accounting for 52% of the total [58]. - In 2024, China's total refined oil consumption was 390 million tons, of which private gas stations sold about 100 million tons, accounting for 25% of the total consumption. State - owned oil companies' gas stations have higher single - station refueling volume and profitability [58]. 2. Major Event Updates of China's Strengthened Refined Oil Consumption Tax Reform in 2025 2.1 The Tax Evasion Incident of Liaoning Baolai Refinery in 2022 - Some enterprises in Panjin, Liaoning evaded refined oil consumption tax by changing the names of taxable refined oil products to non - taxable chemical products. The relevant enterprises were investigated and punished, and the relevant personnel were transferred to the judicial authorities [61]. 2.2 Increased Enforcement of Refined Oil Consumption Tax in 2025: Announcement of Multiple Tax Evasion Cases - In February 2025, tax authorities in Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Yunnan announced the investigation and punishment of three gas station tax evasion cases, including hiding sales revenue through "cheating modes" and non - compliant payment methods [62]. 2.3 The Tax Evasion Incident of Bohui Co., Ltd. in 2025 - After the tax policy change in June 2023, Bohui Co., Ltd. was required to pay consumption tax on its main product, heavy aromatics. In 2024, it was required to pay back taxes of nearly 500 million yuan. In February 2025, the company's controlling stake changed [64][65]. 2.4 China's Special Rectification Campaign Against Illegal Gas Stations in 2025 - From June to December 2025, China will carry out a special rectification campaign against illegal gas stations across the country to severely crack down on illegal refined oil production and sales [68]. 3. Investment Suggestions - The competition of private refineries with non - standard tax payment in the early stage will intensify. They need to improve production efficiency and reduce costs to enhance market competitiveness [71]. - Private gas stations will face greater challenges and direct competition with state - owned oil company gas stations [71]. - The competitiveness of state - owned oil companies will be enhanced, and their market share is expected to expand [71].