证券研究报告 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 板块最新观点 整车主线周报： 本周商用载货车表现较好，长城发布业绩预告 2 （ ◼ 乘用车观点更新：短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘 用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股 江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系 成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 ◼ 重卡观点更新：回顾2025：2025年，25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出 口34.1万，同比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算 25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。展望2026： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of a national capacity pricing policy for energy storage is expected to benefit leading lithium battery companies significantly [4] - The report highlights a strong growth forecast for energy storage, with an expected increase of over 60% in 2026, driven by high demand and supportive policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the potential of solid-state batteries and the space photovoltaic sector, indicating a promising outlook for these technologies [4][8] Industry Trends - Energy Storage: The national capacity pricing mechanism has been released, marking a significant policy shift. The National Energy Administration has reported an addition of 62.24 GW/183 GWh of new energy storage capacity by 2025 [4] - Electric Vehicles: The report anticipates a recovery in electric vehicle sales, with a projected increase of 5-10% in domestic sales for 2026 [4] - Lithium Battery Market: The report notes a significant increase in lithium battery shipments, with a forecast of 1100 GWh globally in 2026, representing a 72% year-on-year growth [4] Company Insights - CATL (宁德时代) is highlighted as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation and confirmed growth trajectory [7] - Other companies such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply), 固德威 (GoodWe), and 比亚迪 (BYD) are also recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [7] - The report mentions specific financial forecasts for various companies, indicating expected profitability improvements and revenue growth in the coming years [4][7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strong push for large-scale energy storage and lithium battery sectors, with a focus on leading companies that are expected to benefit from policy changes and market demand [4][8] - It recommends investing in companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market expansion capabilities, particularly in the robotics and automation sectors [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail and consumer services industry for 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant number of consumer promotion policies in 2026, focusing on "supply-side" initiatives that encourage new business models such as performance economy, cruise economy, and sports economy, rather than traditional methods like vouchers [4] - Service consumption is expected to be a key area of focus in 2026, with an emphasis on "quality supply" and "reform," particularly in tourism, department stores, and tea drinks [4] - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to see profits reflect changes in gold prices, with direct retail brands likely to benefit first from price stabilization [10] - The bulk trade sector is expected to recover from its lowest point, with both valuation and profitability anticipated to rise in 2026 [10] - The report highlights the importance of "consumption going abroad" as a long-term investment direction, emphasizing sustained performance growth over policy stimulus [10] - New consumption brands are expected to show a clear resurgence after the Lunar New Year, with market confidence likely to improve by late February or early March [11] - State-owned enterprise reform is identified as a core driver for promoting consumption, particularly in service-oriented sectors [12] Summary by Sections Weekly Industry Insights - The report predicts numerous consumer promotion policies in 2026, focusing on innovative business models rather than traditional methods [9] - Service consumption will be a primary focus area, with recommendations for companies in tourism and retail sectors [9] Weekly Market Review - From January 26 to February 1, the Shenyin Wanguo retail index increased by 2.16%, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [13] - Year-to-date performance from January 1 to February 1 shows the retail index up by 4.92% [13] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings for 2024 to 2026 [18] - Notable recommendations include companies like Pop Mart, Miniso, and various players in the gold and jewelry sector, all rated as "Buy" or "Overweight" [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail and consumer services industry for 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant number of consumption-promoting policies in 2026, focusing on "supply-side" initiatives rather than traditional methods like vouchers, leading to structural investment opportunities [4][9] - Service consumption is expected to be a key area in 2026, with a focus on "quality supply" and "reform," particularly in tourism, department stores, tea drinks, and chain stores [4][9] - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to see profits reflect gold price fluctuations, with direct retail brands likely to benefit first as gold prices stabilize [10] - The bulk trade sector is expected to recover from its lowest point, with both valuation and profitability anticipated to rise in 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of "consumption going abroad" as a long-term investment direction, with opportunities arising from sustained performance growth rather than policy stimulus [10] - New consumption brands are expected to show a clear resurgence after the Lunar New Year, with low valuations and anticipated positive performance data [11] - State-owned enterprise reform is highlighted as a core driver for promoting consumption, particularly in scenario-based consumption areas like tourism and retail [12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook - The report predicts numerous consumption policies aimed at encouraging new business models, leading to rich structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector [4][9] - Service consumption will focus on quality supply and reforms, with recommendations for specific companies in tourism and retail sectors [4][9] 2. Market Review - The report notes that from January 26 to February 1, the retail index rose by 2.16%, while the overall market indices showed varied performance [13][14] - Year-to-date performance indicates a 4.92% increase in the retail index, reflecting positive market sentiment [16] 3. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings for 2024 to 2026, with specific buy and hold recommendations [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown mixed performance, with the insurance industry outperforming the CSI 300 index recently, while the securities and diversified financial sectors lagged [10][11] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the insurance sector, driven by expected growth in new policies and the ongoing development of the "insurance + health care" model [24][28] - The securities sector is experiencing increased trading volumes and regulatory support, which may lead to new growth opportunities [16][22] - The diversified financial sector is transitioning to a more stable growth phase, with trust assets and futures trading volumes remaining robust [32][38] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (January 26-30, 2026), the insurance sector rose by 5.55%, while the securities sector fell by 0.70% and diversified financials dropped by 3.49% [10] - Year-to-date, the diversified financial sector has increased by 2.06%, followed by insurance at 1.24%, while the securities sector has decreased by 1.64% [11] 2. Insights on Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has increased significantly, with an average daily trading value of 34,743 billion yuan in January, up 155.35% year-on-year [16] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is proposing to expand the types of strategic investors, which may enhance market stability [20][21] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector's premium income for 2025 is projected at 52,696 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [25] - The report anticipates strong performance in new policy sales for 2026, particularly in health and pension insurance [31] 2.3 Diversified Financials - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion yuan by mid-2025, a 20.11% increase year-on-year [32] - The futures market recorded a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts in December 2025, with a transaction value of 90.81 trillion yuan, marking a 45.17% year-on-year growth [38] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and diversified financials, recommending companies such as China Life, Ping An, and CITIC Securities for investment [32][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with a focus on companies such as Haoyuan Pharmaceutical and Aopumai [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a recovery driven by multiple factors, including interest rate cuts, which support the continuous revival of upstream research and development [1]. - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.51% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of early-stage research projects, with pharmaceutical companies increasingly prioritizing these initiatives due to improved funding conditions and heightened enthusiasm for innovative drug development [4][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has decreased by 3.31% this week, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has decreased by 3.24% [4][9]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical commercial sector has seen a significant decline of 4.49%, while traditional Chinese medicine and biological products have experienced smaller declines [4][9]. Research and Development Progress - The report outlines that there is a growing emphasis on innovative drug development across various sectors, including generic drug companies and traditional Chinese medicine enterprises [16]. - Notable advancements include Roche's submission of Giredestrant for approval in the U.S. for HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer, and Relay Therapeutics' submission for a potential first-in-class therapy for cholangiocarcinoma [4]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies in the life sciences service sector, particularly those benefiting from early-stage research demand, mergers and acquisitions, and commercial production partnerships [4][12]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include: - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical - Baidu Pharmaceutical - Aopumai - YaoKang Biotechnology - Nanwei Technology - Aladdin [4][12]. Market Trends - The report notes that the global pharmaceutical R&D expenditure continues to grow, with an increase in the number of new pipelines and a sustained interest in innovative drug development [18]. - The report also mentions that the easing of IPO regulations has led to a resurgence in the number of biopharmaceutical companies seeking to go public, further stimulating demand in the life sciences sector [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.65 to 2.07 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 134% to 194%, with a median estimate of 1.86 billion yuan, reflecting a 164% increase [2]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, leading to significant increases in capital expenditures (CAPEX) from server manufacturers, which in turn boosts the demand for the company's solder paste printing equipment [2][3]. - The company anticipates a substantial increase in sales of higher-margin products, resulting in an improved product mix and higher profitability [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 740.02 million yuan in 2023 to 1,190.15 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 38.94% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 52.58 million yuan in 2023 to 192.01 million yuan in 2025, indicating a significant growth rate of 172.29% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.49 yuan in 2023 to 1.80 yuan in 2025, showcasing a strong upward trend in profitability [1]. Market Dynamics - The acceleration of AI computing infrastructure is driving demand for high-end solder paste printing equipment, with the gross margin for Class III equipment expected to reach 65% in 2024, significantly higher than the 32% for Class I equipment [3]. - The company is also expanding its automated assembly lines for optical modules, which are crucial for meeting the stringent requirements of new products, indicating a strong growth potential in this segment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.65-2.07 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 134% to 194%, with a median estimate of 1.86 billion yuan, reflecting a 164% increase [2]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, leading to significant increases in capital expenditures (CAPEX) from server OEMs, which in turn boosts the demand for the company's solder paste printing equipment [2][3]. - The sales of higher-margin products are expected to increase, optimizing the product mix and enhancing profitability [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 1,190.15 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 38.94% [1]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 192.01 million yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 172.29% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.80 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 69.43 [1]. Market Dynamics - The acceleration of AI computing infrastructure is driving the demand for high-end solder paste printing equipment, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's profitability [3]. - The automation of assembly lines for optical modules is in its early stages, presenting a large growth opportunity, with the company already delivering fully automated assembly lines to overseas clients [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, with a focus on companies like Haoyuan Pharmaceutical and Aopumai [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the upstream research sector supported by interest rate cuts and other factors, indicating a renewed focus on early-stage research projects by pharmaceutical companies [4][16]. - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.51% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in drug development, particularly in early-stage projects, and suggests that the demand for life sciences services will increase as funding becomes more available [4][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has decreased by 3.31% this week, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has decreased by 3.24% [4][9]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound in demand, driven by both domestic and international factors, including a resurgence in IPOs and funding opportunities [16][18]. Research and Development Progress - The report details significant advancements in innovative drugs and improved drugs, with several companies submitting applications for new drug approvals [20]. - Companies like Roche and Relay Therapeutics are making strides in clinical trials, with Roche submitting an application for Giredestrant for breast cancer treatment [4][20]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific companies based on sub-industry strengths, including: - CXO and upstream research services: WuXi AppTec, Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, Aopumai, and King’s Ray Biotechnology [12]. - Traditional Chinese medicine: Jichuan Pharmaceutical, Zuoli Pharmaceutical, and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical [12]. - PD1 PLUS: 3SBio, Kangfang Biotech, and Innovent Biologics [12]. - ADC: InnoCare Pharma and Kelun-Biotech [12]. - AI drug development: Jingtaikong Holdings [12].

Economic Indicators - As of February 1, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.09%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.86%, up 0.02 percentage points[10] - The monthly ECI supply index for January is 50.02%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from December, while the demand index is 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points[13] - The ELI index as of February 1, 2026, is -0.25%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points from last week[16] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires is 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points from last week, while the coke oven production rate is 70.73%, down 0.66 percentage points[22] - The high furnace operating rate is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week, and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year[21] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending January 18, 2026, is 50,171 units, a decrease of 23,608 units year-on-year[28] - The ticket revenue for the week is 1,327.85 million yuan, down 2,739.53 million yuan from last week and down 66,911.91 million yuan year-on-year[29] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities is 143.17 million square meters, up 23.18% from last week, while the second-hand home transaction area is 245.33 million square meters, down 2.35%[34] Export Performance - The SCFI index is 1,316.75, down 141.11 points from last week, while the Baltic Dry Index is 1,989.00, up 248.00 points[40] - The export growth rate for South Korea in the first 20 days of January is 14.90%, an increase of 8.20 percentage points from December and up 20.00% year-on-year[39]