Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range to 4.75%-5%[1] - The Fed's dot plot predicts a slight reduction in GDP growth from 2.1% to 2% for this year, while maintaining a 2% growth forecast for next year[1] - The Fed anticipates two more rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year and four cuts totaling 100 basis points next year[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for this year has been adjusted down from 2.6% to 2.3%, and for next year from 2.3% to 2.1%[1] - Unemployment rate predictions have been raised to 4.4% for this year and 4.3% for next year, indicating a slight increase in joblessness[1] - The current economic environment resembles that of 1995, where the Fed initiated a rate cut cycle amid moderate economic slowdown[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then retreated, while Treasury yields and the dollar index experienced fluctuations[1] - The rate cut is expected to enhance economic expectations and asset prices, but may prolong the time needed for inflation to reach the 2% target[1] - The dollar's rate cut is likely to increase international liquidity and lower funding costs, benefiting emerging market currencies and equities[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the Chinese internet industry, emphasizing a preference for companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable profitability [1]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes for the next six months: companies with robust fundamentals and high revenue and profit growth certainty, those with sustainable profitability and a willingness to enhance shareholder returns, and firms with significant potential in new business ventures [1]. - The report suggests that market preference is currently leaning towards certainty rather than growth, recommending a focus on companies like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent, which exhibit strong fundamentals and shareholder return intentions [1][5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The second quarter performance of the internet sector showed resilience, with transaction platforms like e-commerce and online travel demonstrating strong profit performance due to refined operations and user engagement strategies [1]. - The report notes that the advertising revenue growth for online platforms remains robust, driven by improved commercialization efficiency and higher ad loading rates [1]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report ranks stock recommendations for the second half of 2024 as follows: 1. Alibaba: Expected to benefit from improved monetization and new business efficiencies 2. Meituan: Competitive landscape improving with stable profitability in new business areas 3. Trip.com: Strong core user base and recovery in outbound travel 4. Tencent: Stable core business with high-margin segments driving growth 5. Bilibili: Accelerated revenue growth from new game releases 6. Pinduoduo: Valuation may have overshot, but potential for a second growth curve exists [5]. Industry Trends - The report highlights that the local lifestyle sector is seeing a phase of improved competition, while the online gaming sector is expected to recover in the second half of 2024 due to new product launches [4][5]. - The online advertising sector is experiencing a shift in ad budgets towards platforms that offer higher ROI, indicating a concentration of advertising spending among leading platforms [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The inclusion of companies like Alibaba and Cloud Music in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is anticipated to bring incremental capital inflows, enhancing liquidity and supporting valuations [7]. - Historical performance data shows that stocks entering the Stock Connect have experienced significant average excess returns, indicating a positive market reaction to such inclusions [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Adobe, with a target price of US$645.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.1% from the current price of US$536.87 [4][8]. Core Insights - Adobe reported solid 3QFY24 results, with total revenue increasing by 11% YoY to US$5.41 billion, and non-GAAP net income also growing by 11% YoY to US$2.08 billion, both in line with consensus estimates [2][3]. - The guidance for 4QFY24 was softer than expected, with Digital Media net new ARR guidance of approximately US$550 million, reflecting a 3% YoY decline, which raised concerns about revenue growth outlook for FY25E [2][3]. - The management attributed the softness in guidance to seasonal effects, including the absence of Cyber Monday in 4Q and certain deals being closed earlier in 3QFY24 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Creative Cloud revenue grew by 10% YoY to US$3.2 billion in 3QFY24, with net new ARR of US$341 million, driven by product innovations and user expansion [2][3]. - Document Cloud revenue increased by 18% YoY to US$807 million, with net new ARR of US$163 million, supported by strong usage growth and AI Assistant monetization [2][3]. - Digital Experience revenue was US$1.35 billion in 3QFY24, up 10% YoY, driven by strong subscription revenue growth [2][3]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for FY24-26E remain largely unchanged, with FY24E revenue expected at US$21.46 billion, FY25E at US$23.44 billion, and FY26E at US$25.52 billion [3][7]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to grow from US$8.27 billion in FY24E to US$9.80 billion in FY26E, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [3][7]. Valuation - Adobe is valued at US$287 billion, translating to a target price of US$645.00 per share based on a P/E ratio of 32x for FY25E, which is at a discount to the sector average of 36x [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haier Smart Home with a target price (TP) of HK$ 31.58, reflecting an upside potential of 31.3% from the current price of HK$ 24.05 [2][3]. Core Insights - The sales growth slowdown in 2Q24 was unexpected, but margin improvements were notable. The outlook for 2H24 is positive, driven by government subsidies, potential interest rate cuts, new product launches, and margin recovery in the EU [2][6]. - The "old for new" trade subsidies initiated in August 2024 are expected to favor high-end products, with significant sales growth observed in home appliances, particularly in Hubei province, where sales increased by 30% YoY [2][6]. - Haier's FY24E guidance remains unchanged, targeting mid-single-digit sales growth in China and over 10% growth overseas, with specific categories like air-conditioners and kitchen appliances expected to perform well [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 273.7 billion, with a YoY growth of 4.7%. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 19.6 billion, reflecting a 15.2% growth [3][12]. - The report indicates a fine-tuning of net profit forecasts for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E by +1%/-1%/-1% respectively, accounting for slower sales growth but improved operating leverage and efficiency gains [2][7]. - The earnings summary shows a consistent increase in revenue and net profit over the forecast period, with net profit margins improving from 7.1% in FY24E to 7.7% in FY26E [3][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Haier is positioned to benefit from the ongoing subsidy programs, with a significant portion of local sales companies and distributors engaged in discussions with the government [2][6]. - The company is expected to leverage its market leadership to capture more high-end demand, with Casarte brand products showing exceptional sales growth [2][6]. - The report highlights Haier's strategic focus on high-end product sales and operational efficiencies, which are anticipated to enhance gross and operating margins in the upcoming periods [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HK$1.40 from HK$1.50 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards becoming a first-tier supplier in the automotive parts sector, which is expected to enhance revenue from OEM orders in FY25 [1]. - Despite a cautious approach to maintain gross profit margins (GPM), revenue and net profit forecasts for FY24 have been reduced by 3% and 9% respectively, but the earnings outlook for FY25 appears more promising [1]. - The company anticipates a 15% year-on-year growth in automotive parts revenue for FY25, reaching HK$2.34 billion [1]. - The office automation (OA) segment's gross profit margin expanded by approximately 1 percentage point in the first half of 2024, with a projected continued improvement in the second half [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24 are lowered to HK$6.38 billion, with net profit estimates adjusted to HK$260 million [1][7]. - For FY25, revenue is expected to grow to HK$6.86 billion, with net profit forecasted at HK$301 million, reflecting a 15% increase in operating profit [1][8]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in a projected dividend yield of 7% [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY25 is set at 11 times, with a valuation of HK$0.50 per share for the automotive components segment and HK$0.90 per share for the OA segment [2][9]. - The overall sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation suggests a target price of HK$1.40, indicating a potential upside of 118.8% from the current price of HK$0.64 [4][9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$6.38 billion in FY24 to HK$6.86 billion in FY25, and further to HK$7.23 billion in FY26 [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from HK$260 million in FY24 to HK$301 million in FY25, and HK$327 million in FY26 [3][7]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to stabilize around 21% for FY24 to FY26 [7][8]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a decline of 4.5% over the past month and 9.9% over the past three months, indicating a challenging market environment [4].

13 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update EVA Holdings (838 HK) On track to tier-1 supplier transformation We believe that EVA's auto parts business is on track to transform into a tier-1 supplier with more orders from OEMs to lift FY25E revenue, based on our recent meeting with management. Although we cut our FY24E revenue and NP by 3% and 9%, respectively, amid its cautious approach to maintain GPM, we see higher earnings visibility in FY25E. We estimate its dividend ...

12 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Topsports (6110 HK) Grim outlook but dividend is attractive What is new? Topsports reported a profit warning for 1H25E (ending Aug 2024). The Company is now expecting an around 35% YoY net profit drop in 1H25E (vs RMB 1.3bn in 1H24), due to: 1) worse-than-expected offline traffic, hence a meaningful SSS drop and significant operating deleverage and 2) decline in GP margin as a result of higher retail discounts and greater sales ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) and raises the target price to RMB 61.89, reflecting reduced uncertainty regarding the Biosecurity Act and growth in backlog orders [1][3]. Core Insights - The passage of the Biosecurity Act by the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to have a limited impact on WuXi AppTec's U.S. business, as it may only affect a small portion of government-funded projects. The company's backlog orders have shown strong growth, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1][8]. - As of June, the company's backlog reached RMB 43.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, excluding COVID-19 commercialization projects. The new signed orders in the first half of 2024 grew by approximately 25% [1][10]. - The peptide business (TIDES) has been a significant growth driver, with a revenue increase of 57.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 and a backlog increase of 147% [1][10]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the expected revenue is RMB 38.558 billion, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year. Revenue is projected to grow by 10.9% in FY25E and 13.2% in FY26E [2][15]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is expected to be RMB 9.947 billion, reflecting an 8.4% decrease year-on-year, with growth of 11.5% and 14.4% anticipated in FY25E and FY26E, respectively [2][15]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is projected at RMB 3.42, with subsequent increases to RMB 3.81 in FY25E and RMB 4.36 in FY26E [2][15]. Market Position - WuXi AppTec is recognized as the largest chemical drug Contract Research and Development Organization (CRDMO) globally, with a significant market share compared to competitors like Lonza and Catalent [10][11]. - The report indicates that U.S. pharmaceutical companies will continue to rely heavily on Chinese chemical drug CDMO firms for capacity supply in the medium term [11][12].

2024 年 9 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 宏观策略 全球经济 美元降息周期：前景与影响 美国经济从过热明显降温，未来趋冷但有望避免衰退。美联储将开启降息周 期，明年底之前累计降息可能达到 175 个基点。美元降息将增加国际流动性供 应，降低全球资金成本，推动收益率曲线陡峭化。美股在初期可能反应负面， 因盈利下调风险抵消降息作用，后期将对降息做出正面反应。随着美欧和美日 经济增速差收窄，美元降息周期将带动美元指数温和回落，利好新兴市场货币 与股市，但利好程度仍要看新兴市场自身经济基本面和投资回报率前景。美元 降息周期将提振人民币汇率，减轻汇率对中国利率政策制约，改善港股市场流 动性。 美国经济趋势。美国经济将延续降温进入偏冷状态，因就业放缓、收入增速 下降和消费信贷紧缩。但有望避免衰退发生，因家庭资产负债表稳健，各经 济部门周期不同步，滚动式收缩或扩张降低同步叠加带来衰退风险。 美元降息周期。美联储将在 9 月开启降息周期，初期可能采用渐进方式。在 经济温和放缓但无衰退的基准情景下，美联储或在今年和明年分别降息 50 和 125 个基点。降息路径取决于通胀率降速和失业率升速。中期内政策 ...

2024 年 9 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 博通第三季度业绩回顾：业绩符合一致预期，未给市场带来惊喜 博通（AVGO US, 未评级）发布了 2024 财年第三季度业绩。公司收入同/环比增 长 47%/5%至 131 亿美元，符合彭博一致预期的 130 亿美元。按主营业务划分， 半导体和基础设施软件收入贡献分别为 56%/44%，去年同期为 78%/22%。半导 体销售额为 73 亿美元，同/环比增长 5%/1%。基础设施软件销售额为 58 亿美 元，同/环比增长 200%/10%，其中 VMware 贡献了 38 亿美元。 Non-GAAP 毛利率为 77.4%，略高于彭博一致预期 0.9 个百分点。公司本季度 录得 19 亿美元净亏损（去年同期、上季度净利润分别为 33 亿美元、21 亿美 元），主要由于知识产权迁移产生了一项 45 亿美元的一次性非现金税项。扣非 调整后，non-GAAP 每股收益为 1.24 美元，同/环比增长 18.1%/13.5%。 公司预计第四季度收入为 140 亿美元，同/环比增长 51%/7%。2024 财年收入预 计增至 515 亿 ...