CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Geely Automobile (175 HK) Solid 1Q24 with better 2H24 earnings ahead Maintain BUY. We are of the view that 1Q24 earnings (net profit of RMB1.56bn) were slightly better than our prior forecast and therefore, we raise our FY24E net profit estimates by 5% to RMB7bn. We believe that Zeekr could be undervalued given its solid sales momentum and possible earnings improvement from 2H24E. 1Q24 earnings slightly beat. Geely reported its quarterly re ...

BYDE (285 HK) CMBI Corp Day takeaways: iPad/iPhone cycle, NEV, AI servers and robotics Target Price HK$45.15 Up/Downside 15.8% Current Price HK$39.00 China Technology Alex NG (852) 3900 0881 alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LI lihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 87,875.0 Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 342.8 52w High/Low (HK$) 40.00/23.60 Total Issued Shares (mn) 2253.2 Source: FactSet Shareholding Structure Golden Link Worldwide Ltd 65.8% Gold Dragonfly Ltd 5.0% Source: HKEx Share Performance Absolute Rela ...

CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 比亚迪 ( 285 香港 ) CMBI Corp Day 外卖 : iPad / iPhone 周期 , NEV , AI 服务 器和机器人技术 我们于 6 月 28 日在 CMBI 技术公司日主持了 BYDE 。管理。重申了他们在 2024 年的积极前景 : 1 ) Apple / Adroid : iPad 份额增长,AI iPhoe 升级周期和高端 Adroid 增长 ; 2 ) NEV : 智能 驾驶舱,热泵系统,高端 ADAS 系统和主动悬架产品将在 FY24E 推动 40 % 以上的销售增长 ; 3 ) Nvidia AI 服务器 / 机器人 : 中国 CSP 的 AI 服务器和工厂的自主移动机器人 ( AMR ) 。该股 目前的市盈率为 15.2 倍,在我们看来很有吸引力。我们的 TP 为 45.15 港元,基于 17.2 倍 FY24E P / E 。重申买入和比亚迪是我们行业的首选。 消费电子产品 : iPad 份额增长 , iPhone 外壳和高端 Android 增长对于苹果公司来说,管 理层。iPad 份额增长和 iPhoe 周期保持乐 ...

CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 吉利汽车 ( 175 香港 ) 第 1 季度稳健 , 未来下半年收益较好 目标价 14.00 港元 涨 / 跌 59.3% 现价 8.79 港元中国汽车 Ji Shi, CFA (852) 3761 8728 文静 DOU, CFA (852) 6939 4751 | 维持买入。 我们认为 , 第 1 季度的收益 ( 净利润为 15.6 亿元人民币 ) | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 测 , 因此 , 我们将 FY24E 的净利润预期提高了 5 % , 至 70 亿元人民币。我们认为 | | 于 Zeekr 的销售势头强劲 , 并且可能比 2H24E 的收益有所改善 , Zeekr | | 。 | | 1Q24 盈利略有好转。 吉利有史以来首次公布季度业绩。尽管价格战,其平均销售价格 | | ( ASP ) 同比增长 6% ,高于我们的预期。不包括 Zeer 的毛利率同比下降 | | 点, ...

Bosideng (3998 HK) Beautifully executed the solid strategies | Target Price | | |------------------------------|-----------| | (Previous TP | HK$5.34) | | Up/Downside | 31.1% | | Current Price | HK$4.56 | | China Consumer Discretionary | | | Walter WOO | | | (852) 3761 8776 | | | walterwoo@cmbi.com.hk | | | Stock Data | | | Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) | 49,314.1 | | Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) | 100.1 | | 52w High/Low (HK$) | 4.83/2.89 | | Total Issued Shares (mn) | 10814.5 | | Source: FactSet | | | Shareholding Structure ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of United Energy (467 HK) to HOLD from Buy, with a revised target price of HK$0.30, implying a 2.5x P/E for 2024E [2][3]. Core Views - The share price of United Energy is under pressure due to the uncertain financial condition of its controlling shareholder, Orient Group, which is facing financial difficulties [2][3]. - The earnings forecast for United Energy remains unchanged, but the report indicates a substantial overhang on the stock price for the next 3-6 months due to the financial situation of Orient Finance [2][3]. - The report suggests that a more constructive outlook on United Energy will depend on positive developments at the shareholder level [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$13,591 million in FY23A to HK$15,707 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [9]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to recover from a loss of HK$1,707.4 million in FY23A to HK$3,151 million in FY24E [9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in daily output from Iraq - Block 9, projected to reach 51.3 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024E, up from 38.0 in 2023 [3][9]. Earnings Summary - The earnings summary indicates a net profit of HK$3,151 million for FY24E, with an EPS of 12.05 HK cents, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [9]. - The report notes a P/E ratio of 2.3x for FY24E, suggesting that the stock is undervalued compared to its earnings potential [9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 33.0% in FY24E, down from 32.7% in FY23A [9]. Operational Insights - The report provides insights into the operational performance, indicating that the total daily output is expected to increase to 110.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024E, with a notable decline in output from Pakistan [3]. - Realized crude prices are projected to average US$86 per barrel in 2024E, which is a slight increase from US$79 in 2023 [3][5]. - The lifting cost is expected to remain stable at around US$4.7 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2024E [3]. Share Performance - The report notes a significant decline in share performance, with an absolute drop of 48.3% over the past month and a relative decline of 45.0% [2]. - The share price has fluctuated between HK$0.30 and HK$1.25 over the past 52 weeks, indicating high volatility [2]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the need for monitoring the financial condition of Orient Finance and its implications for United Energy's stock performance, while also highlighting potential upside risks related to strategic share disposals and buybacks [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a target price (TP) of HK$25.39, implying a potential upside of 53.5% from the current price of HK$16.54 [5][14]. Core Insights - The growth outlook for Xiaomi remains intact despite market concerns regarding margin impacts from rising memory prices and competition from the AI iPhone launch. The company is expected to continue gaining global smartphone market share, strengthen its AIoT sales, and ramp up EV shipments [2][3]. - Management has reiterated the annual delivery target of 120,000 units for the SU7 EV, with production capacity increasing to 20,000 units per month [3]. - Xiaomi aims to achieve a shipment target of 165 million smartphones in 2024, up from 146 million in 2023, supported by overseas expansion in various regions [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 was RMB 270,970 million, with a projected increase to RMB 337,161 million in FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [4][17]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23 was RMB 19,273 million, expected to rise to RMB 22,974 million in FY24, reflecting a growth of 19.2% [4][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.77 in FY23 to RMB 0.92 in FY24 [4][17]. Earnings Forecast - The report outlines a revenue breakdown for FY24E, with smartphones contributing RMB 185,020 million, IoT and lifestyle products at RMB 93,264 million, and internet services at RMB 32,856 million [12][13]. - Gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 21.1% for FY24E, with smartphone margins slightly declining due to memory cost pressures [12][13]. Valuation - The valuation methodology includes assigning a P/E multiple of 15x for Xiaomi's smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses, while the EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E P/S [14][15]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at RMB 581,175 million, with a target price of HK$25.39 based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis [14][15].

美国互联网和软件公司在 1Q24 的营收增长表现喜忧参半:广告和云服务的收入增长呈现出重新加速的趋势, 而 SaaS 的收入增长则环比略有下降。然而,在劳动力成本优化、规模经济提升及运营效率提升的推动下,软 件互联网公司的利润率稳步扩张趋势在 1Q 进一步显现,且我们认为趋势有望在2Q24延续,尽管下半年或将 面临更高的利润率基数。AI相关变现及利润率扩张仍是互联网及软件公司的关键投资主题,且行业股票表现有 望对未来的降息反应积极,尽管降息预期或已部分反映在股价中。选股方面,我们推荐微软(MSFT US; 买 入;在生成式人工智能快速发展及其变现的浪潮中处于有利位置)、亚马逊(AMZN US; 买入;利润率稳步扩 张或仍有望超出市场预期)以及 ServiceNow(NOW US; 买入;cRPO 的稳健增长和盈利能力扩张有望持 续)。 美国SaaS行业:应对客户持续收紧的IT预算。在客户持续收紧IT预算的大环境下,美国SaaS行业增长放缓。 1季度Salesforce和ServiceNow cRPO同比增速放缓至+10/+21%(4Q23:同比增长+12/+24%; 3Q23:同比增长14/27%)。短期来看 ...

点击蓝字 关注我们 招商银行全资附属机构 公司点评 珀莱雅 (603605 CH，买入，目标价：135.57元人民币) - 618表现亮眼：主品牌卫冕天猫榜单，彩妆品牌 跃至榜首 公司在此次618活动中表现亮眼，全周期整体GMV分别位列天猫/抖音的美妆排行榜第1/2名，主要由于大单品 策略持续发力叠加公司折扣可能略有放宽。其中，护肤主品牌在天猫/抖音的GMV同比增长了70%/110%，增 速明显优于平台板块整体（传统电商平台-13%/抖音平台+47.6%）及一众国际品牌。考虑到美妆行业退货率 可能继续提升，GMV增速落实至收入层面可能会打一定折扣。其他子品牌方面，彩妆/护发品牌排名取得突 破，GMV排名分别攀升至天猫榜单第1/9名，新品牌销售提升顺利，为公司多品牌矩阵策略提供助力。我们将 公司2024年/2025年的盈利预期提高了约20%，以反映618表现及4Q23/1Q24的亮眼业绩。维持"买入"评 级，目标价调整至人民币135.57元，对应35x 2024E P/E。 618整体表现亮眼，主品牌GMV卫冕天猫，抖音荣获榜眼。根据三方统计数据，618购物节期间，珀莱雅整体 美妆GMV在天猫成功卫冕，在抖音平 ...

CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Q - Tech ( 1478 香港 ) CMBI Corp Day 外卖 : Android 恢复和规范升级推动 ASP / GPM 上升 我们于 6 月 26 日在 CMBI 技术公司日主持了 Q - tech 。主要收获包括 : 1 ) 智能手机 CCM : 管理。 在 Adroid 恢复,更高的 UTR 和更好的产品组合的推动下,FY24E 的 GPM 恢复是积极的 ; 2 ) 非智能 手机 CCM : 由于华为和海外一级客户的订单获胜,汽车 CCM 的加速增长 ; 3 ) FPM : 由于超声波 FPM 的采用增加和 ASP 的增加,利润崩溃在轨道上。总体而言,我们预计高端 Adroid 恢复和规格升级将 在 FY24E 提高 ASP / 收益。FY24 / 25E 市盈率为 11.9 倍 / 8.7 倍,我们认为该股仍然具有吸引力 ( 而 8 年期市盈率为 18 倍。avg) 。在审查 TP 的情况下保持买入。 智能手机 CCM : 由于 Android 恢复 , 高端规格升级和不断上升的 UTR / ASP , GPM 恢 复步入正轨。管理。重申 ...