Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY International with a target price of HKD 7.90, reflecting a potential upside of 13.0% from the current price of HKD 6.99 [2][14]. Core Insights - SANY International's Q1 2024 net profit decreased by 21% year-on-year, which was worse than expected, primarily due to losses in oil and gas equipment and emerging industries. However, there are signs of improvement expected in the second half of 2024 driven by strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and logistics equipment, as well as potential acceleration in port equipment orders due to government policies [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue fell by 6% year-on-year to RMB 5.13 billion, with mining equipment revenue down 26% to RMB 2.8 billion, while logistics equipment revenue increased by 23% to RMB 1.8 billion [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit for FY 2024 is projected to be RMB 2.034 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2][10]. - Revenue for FY 2024 is estimated at RMB 25.874 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [2][10]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that domestic logistics equipment is benefiting from equipment upgrade policies, with SANY expressing confidence in strong orders starting from the second half of 2024 [1][2]. - Overseas growth remains promising, particularly for wide-body trucks, with a target of delivering 1,800 units in 2024, translating to approximately RMB 2.6 billion in sales [1][2]. - Despite a decline in the solar energy sector, SANY aims to deliver 3-4 GW of solar modules this year, although losses are still anticipated due to ongoing price declines in the solar supply chain [1][2][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for various segments in FY 2024 include: - Road headers: RMB 2.495 billion - Combined coal mining units (CCMU): RMB 3.983 billion - Small port machinery: RMB 5.952 billion - Large port machinery: RMB 1.620 billion - Mining trucks: RMB 4.768 billion [5][10]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a projected net profit margin of 10.1% for Q1 2024, down from 12.0% in Q1 2023, reflecting the impact of increased costs and lower sales [4][10]. - The overall gross profit margin for FY 2024 is expected to be around 25.6% [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60.83, representing a potential upside of 22.0% from the current price of HKD 49.85 [1][3][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle, with significant sales performance anticipated during the upcoming promotional period [1]. - The company has announced a placement of 33.22 million shares at HKD 49.40 per share, raising approximately HKD 1.627 billion, primarily for core business development and ecosystem layout [1]. - The company has a robust cash position, with net cash of HKD 2.5 billion and financial assets of HKD 1.27 billion as of the end of 2023, which will support brand building and product line expansion [1]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3.524 billion in FY23 to RMB 4.636 billion in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.6% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.452 billion in FY23 to RMB 1.828 billion in FY24, with an adjusted EPS of RMB 1.03 for FY24 [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 83% for FY24 and FY25 [2]. Product Performance - The company has launched several new products under its brands, including the "Focus Series" and "Order Series," which have shown strong sales performance on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [1]. - The "Collagen Stick" is expected to contribute over 30% of the brand's revenue, with significant sales recorded during promotional events [1]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned to leverage its product offerings during major sales events, with expectations of strong sales growth for its new product lines [1]. - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge in the functional skincare market, anticipating regulatory approval for injectable collagen products within the year [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for SANY International with a new target price of HK$7.90, reflecting a potential upside of 13.0% from the current price of HK$6.99 [2][5]. Core Insights - SANY International's 1Q24 net profit declined by 21% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB516 million, which was worse than the expected decline of 15% YoY. This decline was primarily due to weak performance in mining equipment and emerging industries, despite growth in logistics equipment [2]. - The report anticipates an improving trend for SANY International, driven by the reduction of losses following the disposal of its robot business, strong overseas demand for wide-body trucks and large mining trucks, and potential acceleration in port equipment orders in the second half of 2024 due to government policies [2]. - Adjustments to earnings forecasts for 2024E and 2025E have been made, with a decrease of 5% and 2% respectively [2]. Financial Performance Summary - 1Q24 revenue decreased by 6% YoY to RMB5.1 billion, with mining equipment revenue falling by 26% YoY to RMB2.8 billion, while logistics equipment revenue increased by 23% YoY to RMB1.8 billion [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for 1Q24 was reported at 24.9%, slightly up from 24.5% in 1Q23, indicating improved efficiency despite lower revenue [8]. - For the full year, SANY International targets to deliver 3-4GW of solar modules and complete 800MW of EPC projects, although losses in the solar power segment are expected to continue due to declining supply chain pricing [2]. Market Outlook - The domestic logistics equipment sector is expected to benefit from an equipment upgrade policy, with major ports in China planning to replace small diesel port machinery with electric models [2]. - SANY International has seen promising overseas growth, particularly in wide-body trucks, with a target of 1,800 units for the full year, translating to approximately RMB2.6 billion in sales [2]. - The company remains optimistic about the domestic mining equipment market, projecting a growth range of 0-5% for 2024E, despite overall industry challenges [2].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of $183.00, slightly adjusted from the previous target of $183.20, indicating a potential upside of 65.2% from the current price of $110.75 [3][7]. Core Insights - Baidu's Q1 2024 revenue reached 31.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus. The core non-GAAP net income was 6.6 billion RMB, exceeding expectations due to effective cost control [2][4]. - The management highlighted a continuous increase in AI-related advertising and cloud revenue, accelerating the transformation of search business through generative AI [2][4]. - The online advertising revenue for Q1 was 17 billion RMB, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth, which was better than market expectations [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY23E are 134.6 billion RMB, with an expected growth of 8.8%, followed by 138.5 billion RMB in FY24E, a growth of 2.9% [4][6]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY23E is estimated at 28.7 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 39% [4][6]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q1 2024 was reported at 51.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. Segment Performance - Non-advertising revenue grew by 6% year-on-year, reaching 6.8 billion RMB, accounting for 29% of Baidu's core revenue [2][4]. - Baidu's cloud revenue for Q1 was 4.7 billion RMB, marking a 12% year-on-year increase, supported by the growth in AI cloud contributions [2][4]. - The management expects cloud revenue growth to recover to 14% year-on-year in 2024E, up from 6% in 2023 [2][4]. Valuation and Estimates - The SOTP valuation for Baidu's core business is estimated at $69.2, based on a 7.0x 2024E non-GAAP PE [7][8]. - The net cash position is valued at $64.6, contributing significantly to the overall valuation [7][8]. - The report anticipates a non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) of 24.7% in Q2 2024, remaining stable year-on-year [2][5].

2024 年 5 月 17 日 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 3 JD. com (JD US) 来自彭博社的更多报告 ： 重新设置 CMBR < GO > 或 http: / / www. cmbi. com. hk 收益汇总 2024 年 5 月 17 日 业务预测更新和估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|---------|-----------------|---------|---------|----------------|---------|---------|-------------------|---------| | 图 2 ： JD ： 预测修正 \n十亿元人民币 | 2024E | Current \n2025E | 2026E | 2024E | 上一页 \n2025E | 2026E | 2024E | 变更 (%) \n2025E | 2026E | | 收入 | 1,161.0 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of US$51.90, reflecting a potential upside of 54.4% from the current price of US$33.62 [1][12][28] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected 1Q24 results, with revenue of RMB260.0 billion, up 7% YoY, and non-GAAP net income of RMB8.9 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [12] - Management indicated that the general merchandise category has entered a clean base for growth since 1Q24, with commission revenue growth also expected to improve from 2Q24 [12] - The enhancement in shareholder returns through share repurchases is expected to support the company's valuation [12] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY23A to FY26E are as follows: - FY23A: RMB1,084,662 million - FY24E: RMB1,160,996 million (YoY growth of 7.0%) - FY25E: RMB1,226,443 million (YoY growth of 5.6%) - FY26E: RMB1,281,843 million (YoY growth of 4.5%) [3][20] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB35,200 million in FY23A to RMB46,162 million in FY26E [3][20] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.8x in FY23A to 9.2x in FY26E, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][32] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The net cash from operations is expected to be RMB39,928 million in FY24E, with capital expenditures of RMB16,254 million [10] - Current assets are projected to increase from RMB307,810 million in FY23A to RMB450,075 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong liquidity position [9] - Total liabilities are expected to rise from RMB332,578 million in FY23A to RMB379,832 million in FY26E, indicating manageable debt levels [9] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is navigating a competitive landscape with a focus on efficient growth strategies, targeting core user base operations [12] - Management remains vigilant regarding industry competition, which is perceived to be more benign than previously expected [12] - Key catalysts for growth include the rollout of home appliance trade-in initiatives and better-than-expected margin expansion [12]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$183.0, reflecting a potential upside of 65.2% from the current price of US$110.75 [3][4][12] Core Insights - Baidu's 1Q24 revenue was RMB31.5 billion, up 1.2% YoY, aligning with Bloomberg consensus, while non-GAAP net income for Baidu Core was RMB6.6 billion, exceeding consensus expectations due to effective cost control [2] - The company is focusing on AI-related advertising and cloud revenue, which are expected to drive long-term business growth despite short-term volatility in ad revenue [2] - Baidu's Cloud business is generating sustainable operating profit with decent margins, and long-term margin expansion is anticipated with increased AI cloud revenue contributions [2] Financial Performance - Baidu Core's online ads revenue increased by 3% YoY to RMB17.0 billion in 1Q24, slightly above consensus [2] - Non-ad revenue rose by 6% YoY to RMB6.8 billion, accounting for 29% of Baidu Core revenue [2] - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 51.5% in 1Q24, up 0.2 percentage points YoY, while non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) was 23.5%, exceeding consensus by 1.6 percentage points [2] Revenue Projections - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB138.5 billion, with a YoY growth of 2.9%, and adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB27.7 billion [11][18] - Baidu Cloud revenue is estimated to recover to a 14% YoY growth in 2024E, driven by the ramp-up in Gen AI-related cloud revenue [2][11] Valuation - The SOTP-based target price of US$183.0 is derived from various segments, including US$69.2 for Baidu Core and US$32.2 for Baidu Cloud, reflecting a valuation adjustment in line with industry peers [12][13] - The valuation translates to 17/16x 2024E/2025E PE on a non-GAAP basis, or 11/10x if excluding net cash [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for ZTO Express with a target price of US$38.50, indicating an upside potential of 80% from the current price of US$21.39 [2][5]. Core Insights - ZTO Express has shifted its strategic focus to a profitable growth strategy in 1Q24, achieving a core net profit of RMB1.9 billion, which is a 23% year-over-year increase and represents 19% of the full-year forecast [2][3]. - The company aims for a parcel volume growth target of 15-18% for 2024, consistent with previous guidance, despite a higher industry growth forecast of 15-20% [2][3]. - ZTO's earnings growth is supported by a 10% year-over-year revenue increase, a 2.1 percentage point expansion in gross margin to 30.1%, and a significant increase in net finance income [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **1Q24 Results**: Core net profit increased by 23% YoY to RMB1.9 billion, while reported net income decreased by 15% YoY to RMB1.4 billion due to an impairment of RMB478 million [3][8]. - **Revenue Growth**: Total revenue for 1Q24 was RMB9.96 billion, reflecting a 10.9% increase YoY [8]. - **Parcel Volume**: Parcel volume grew by 14% YoY to 7.2 billion units, which is below the industry average growth of 25% [3][8]. - **Cost Management**: Unit cost decreased by 5% YoY to RMB0.94 per parcel, with transportation costs down by 7% YoY [3][8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB9.74 billion for FY24, reflecting an 11.4% growth YoY [5][17]. Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Revenue is projected to grow from RMB38.42 billion in FY23 to RMB43.87 billion in FY24, representing a 14.2% growth [5][17]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Reported EPS is expected to be RMB11.67 for FY24, with a YoY growth of 11.4% [5][17]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: The P/E ratio is projected to be 13.2x for FY24, which is in line with historical averages [5][17]. - **Dividend Yield**: The expected dividend yield for FY24 is 3.0% [5][17].

M N 16 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update ZTO Express (2057 HK) 1Q24 core earnings beat estimates; Shifted to profitable growth strategy Target Price HK$303.00 ZTO Express (ZTO) shifted the strategic focus to profitable growth in 1Q24, Up/Downside 74.5% enabling it to deliver core net profit of RMB1.9bn (+23% YoY), representing 19% Current Price HK$173.60 of our full-year forecast (run rate in 1Q23: 17.6%), which is better than our expectation. Looking forward, ZTO ...