唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 开复工率提升，重视 3 月基建行情 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20250303-20250309） 证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 10 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 本周观点： 基建数据跟踪： 市场回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 1) 近期建筑施工活动持续恢复，复工进度稳步推进。2 月 28 日，全国水泥发运率较前 一周环比上升 7.09 个百分点，反映出施工活跃度显著提升。2 月 26 日—3 月 4 日， 全国水泥出库量达到 207.55 万吨，环比增长 32.54%，其中基建水 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (first-time rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the government's commitment to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including increasing loan allocations and promoting urban village and dilapidated housing renovations [3] - The expansion of urban renewal projects is expected, with plans to include 1 million new urban village renovations and dilapidated housing renovations by 2024 [3] - The focus on "good housing" is emphasized, with the government aiming to create a new market segment for high-quality residential properties [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Urban Renewal and Housing Renovation - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to expand urban village renovations from 35 cities to nearly 300 cities, targeting old residential areas built before 2000 [3] - As of the end of 2024, approximately 349 billion square meters of existing residential space is estimated, with about 29% built before 2000, corresponding to around 101 billion square meters [3] Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The report anticipates that the restructuring of the housing demand will create a wave of development for "good housing," allowing product-driven real estate companies to gain market share and premium pricing [3] - The construction materials sector is expected to recover as the demand for high-quality housing increases, reversing the previous trend of consumption downgrade [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate and construction material companies that are likely to benefit from urban renewal and the construction of high-quality housing, including companies like Binjiang Group and China Overseas Development [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The inclusion of "good housing" in the government work report is expected to drive the return of building material prices, indicating a shift towards high-quality residential development [3] - The report highlights that the government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, with an emphasis on promoting healthy development in both the real estate and stock markets [3] - The estimated urban residential stock in China is approximately 350 billion square meters, with a low penetration rate of high-quality housing, particularly in first-tier cities [3] - The report anticipates a reversal of the consumption downgrade in the building materials industry, with prices expected to recover before sales, indicating an early turning point [3] Data Tracking Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.3 RMB/ton, up 2.8 RMB/ton month-on-month and up 32.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [16] - The cement inventory ratio is 55.2%, down 2.0 percentage points month-on-month and down 9.3 percentage points year-on-year [16] - The cement shipment rate is 38.5%, up 7.2 percentage points month-on-month and up 10.5 percentage points year-on-year [16] Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1446.8 RMB/ton, down 38.1 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 669.2 RMB/ton year-on-year [26] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 61.68 million heavy boxes, up 3.1% month-on-month and up 15.1% year-on-year [26] Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 13.8 RMB/square meter, up 1.8 RMB/square meter month-on-month and down 2.6% year-on-year [29] - The average price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is 22.3 RMB/square meter, up 2.9 RMB/square meter month-on-month and down 3.4% year-on-year [29] Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, up 30.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and up 770.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [34] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, up 450.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and up 1850.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [34] Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [35] - The average price of small tow carbon fiber is 95.0 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 22.5 RMB/kg year-on-year [35] Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report maintains that 2025 will be a turning point for listed companies, while 2026 will be a turning point for the industry [4] - It suggests focusing on three areas: consumer building materials, cement, and high-prospect sectors [4]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The total wealth management scale reached 30.25 trillion yuan by the end of February 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.13 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the average increase of 0.58 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [2][11][12] - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products dropped significantly, with the new issuance benchmark lower limit at 2.32% in February 2025, potentially approaching 2.0% [13][14] - The growth of wealth management scale in 2025 faces significant challenges due to low credit bond yields and insufficient coupon protection, leading to decreased attractiveness of wealth management products [13][14] Group 2: AI Applications - The launch of Manus, a general-purpose AI agent, marks a significant advancement in AI applications, showcasing autonomous planning and learning capabilities [16][18] - Manus employs a multi-agent architecture to enhance task processing efficiency, simulating human workflows for complex tasks [17][18] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies involved in AI applications, particularly those integrating AI agents, such as Focus Technology and Kaiying Network [18] Group 3: Shipping and Oil Trade - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting April 2025, aiming to gradually restore production to 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 [20][22] - The increase in OPEC+ production is expected to boost global compliant oil trade volume by 932,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, benefiting VLCC shipping [22] - Shipping companies are showing strong intentions to raise freight rates, with Maersk announcing significant price hikes for routes from the Far East to Europe [23][24] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices have been fluctuating around high levels, with recent trends influenced by tariff negotiations and geopolitical developments [26][27] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, which could create favorable conditions for gold prices [29][30] - Investment recommendations include leading gold companies such as Shandong Gold and those with potential for valuation recovery like Chifeng Jilong Gold [31] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices surged due to expectations of increased tariffs and economic stimulus in Europe, with significant price increases observed in both US and London copper markets [32][33] - Aluminum prices are supported by inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, with expectations of a supply shortage in the coming year [34] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to rising supply and inventory accumulation, with projections indicating a potential stabilization in the range of 70,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton [35]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing adoption of solid-state batteries by major automotive manufacturers, driven by policy support and the need for improved battery safety and performance [2][9][17] - Solid-state batteries are expected to replace liquid electrolyte batteries, offering higher energy density and enhanced safety, with oxide materials emerging as the fastest technology route [2][9][19] - The report identifies leading companies in the solid-state battery supply chain, including CATL and BYD, which together account for approximately 60% of total production capacity [2][17][29] Group 2 - The report forecasts that China's solid-state battery shipment volume will reach approximately 18 GWh by 2027, with a market space of around 10 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow to 29 billion yuan by 2025 [2][25][29] - The overall performance of the North Exchange technology growth stocks has been positive, with a median price change of +10.18% from March 3 to March 7, 2025 [2][14] - The report provides insights into the valuation of various industries, noting that the median P/E ratio for the electronic equipment industry has increased from 50.0X to 59.3X, indicating strong investor interest [2][13][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The performance of Jitu Express and JD Logistics is expected to improve significantly in 2024 [4] - The shipping industry is facing potential sanctions against Iran, which may benefit VLCC compliance demand and freight rates [5] - The air transport sector is experiencing a long-term low growth in supply, while demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [15] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical low levels, limiting downward space [16] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 5.2% to 1436 points [5] - The BDTI index fell by 0.5% to 882 points, while the BCTI index dropped by 5.3% to 656 points [6] - The BDI index increased by 14.0% to 1263 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [6] Air Transport - Brunei has implemented visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, which is expected to stimulate international route demand [8] - The low-altitude economy has been highlighted in the government work report, indicating a focus on emerging industries [10] Express Logistics - Jitu Express reported a revenue of $10.26 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [11] - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [12] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in freight logistics activity [13] Sub-industry Data Tracking Express Logistics - In December 2024, the national express service business volume reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [25] Road and Rail - In December 2024, road passenger volume was 987 million, a year-on-year increase of 155.32% [36] Air Transport - In January 2025, civil aviation completed a passenger transport volume of approximately 65 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [38] Shipping Vessels - The Clarksons comprehensive freight rate was $23,843 per day, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The gout treatment market in China, with over ten million patients, is expected to welcome significant new drugs, particularly focusing on Yipinhong [3][11] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown signs of recovery after four consecutive years of decline, with multiple bottom signals indicating potential for valuation recovery in 2025 [4][40] - Key factors for growth in 2025 include the scaling of domestic innovation, improved international competitiveness, an aging population driving demand for chronic disease treatments, and the positive impact of AI in the pharmaceutical sector [4][40] Summary by Sections Gout Treatment Market - The prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout in China has significantly increased, with hyperuricemia affecting 13.3% of the population and gout affecting 1% to 3% [11] - Current treatments for gout have notable clinical deficiencies, leading to a market opportunity for new URAT1 inhibitors [12][14] - New URAT1 inhibitors are being developed, with several candidates in clinical trials, including AR882 from Yipinhong, which has shown promising results [16][29] Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.06% from March 3 to March 7, with a total of 335 stocks rising and 150 falling during this period [6][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, international expansion, and addressing the needs of an aging population as key drivers for the industry [40] - Specific stocks to watch include Yipinhong, Hotgen Biotech, and others that are positioned for growth in the innovative drug sector [4][40] Clinical Trials and Drug Development - Multiple new URAT1 inhibitors are in various stages of clinical trials, with significant data supporting their efficacy and safety [16][24][29] - For instance, the new drug multi-tinore (by Eisai) has shown a 73.6% success rate in lowering uric acid levels in clinical trials, significantly outperforming existing treatments [24] - AR882 has demonstrated a long-lasting effect in reducing uric acid levels and has shown good safety profiles in trials [29][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Trade friction has led to tariff countermeasures, focusing on cost changes in the breeding industry and the procurement advantages of leading feed companies [3] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [6][26] - The overall supply of pigs is expected to be high in the long term, leading to a weak price outlook for pigs [5][25] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The price difference for standard pigs is at a two-year high, but expectations for future prices are weak, leading to increased willingness to sell [5][25] - The latest pig price is 14.45 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 127.06 kg for market pigs [5][25] - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a breeding sow inventory of 40.62 million heads, exceeding the 105% capacity control threshold [5][25] 2. Poultry Industry - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the latest chick price at 2.7 CNY/bird, up 8% week-on-week [7][27] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream sources, indicating a new normal [7][27] - Key investment targets include leading imported breeding source companies and full-chain leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong [7][27] 3. Feed Industry - Fish prices are rising while feed prices are declining, with a recovery in aquaculture profitability expected in 2024 [8][28] - The report recommends Hai Da Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential [11][30] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [10][28] 4. Pet Industry - Sales data for January-February 2025 shows a decline in pet food sales, with cat and dog food sales at 1.377 billion and 0.682 billion CNY, down 17.5% and 28.7% year-on-year [12][31] - The report suggests focusing on high-performing brands like Guibao and Zhongchong, which are entering a growth phase [16][32] 5. Agricultural Products - Tariff countermeasures are expected to have limited impact on domestic agricultural supply, with a trend of price recovery anticipated [17][35] - The report mentions that the prices of corn and soybeans are at the bottom, with a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance [17][35] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3944.01, up 1.39% week-on-week, while the Agricultural Index rose 1.04% [36][38] - The report indicates that the pet food sector performed the best with a 4.14% increase [36][38]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "risk-off" sentiment in the market as investors await the resolution of current disturbances [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and the integration of new production capabilities as outlined in the government work report [3][14] - The report identifies the IT distribution leader, Weishi Jiajie, as a key beneficiary of the domestic large model and cloud vendor competition [3][14] Market Performance Summary - The Hong Kong technology sector experienced a strong rebound, with the Hang Seng Technology Index closing at 6037.4, up 8.4%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2.8 percentage points [6][8] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 4629.6, down 2.9%, but still outperformed the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [6][8] - The report notes that the U.S. tech sector continued to pull back, with the AI + energy sector leading the decline [8] Cryptocurrency Market Overview - As of March 7, 2025, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.92 trillion, an increase from $2.81 trillion the previous week [19] - The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies on March 7, 2025, was $127.1 billion, accounting for 4.35% of the total market capitalization [19] - The report indicates that the cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently in a state of fear, with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 30 [20] Key Events and Trends - The report discusses the significant outflow from cryptocurrency ETFs, totaling $739 million for the week, indicating a bearish trend in the market [24] - The report mentions that the price of core cryptocurrency assets has declined significantly due to changes in U.S. government policy and increased regulatory scrutiny [28] - The report highlights the upcoming earnings reports from various companies in the AI and cryptocurrency sectors, which may impact market sentiment [17][31]

证券研究报告 传媒 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 09 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 王世豪 SAC：S1350524120005 wangshihao@huayuanstock.com 我们建议把握：1）国产开源模型有望突破算力和芯片限制，加速实现技术追赶，互 联网头部公司后发先至，在 AI 发展层面有望价值重估，关注【腾讯控股】【阿里巴 巴-W】【快手】【哔哩哔哩】等。目前看腾讯系 AI 产品加速迭代，例如，元宝上 线「混元 Turbo S」（混元最新"快思考"大模型），相比上一代，吐字速度提升一 倍，首字时延降低 44%。并且上线腾讯元宝电脑版。我们认为这是腾讯切换更为积 极的 AI 业务战略思路，优先考虑用户在 AI 体验入口的教育，借助更优质的模型体 验先完成基础用户积累。此举有望快速拉动腾讯系 AI 业务的用户使用量，建议关注 【腾讯控股】，以及腾讯产业链相关公司后续布局，包括阅文集团、微盟集团、TME、 中文在线、掌趣科技、祖龙娱乐、百奥家庭互动、飞鱼科技等。 2）持续 ...