证券研究报告 计算机 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 09 日 投资评级： 看好（首次） 证券分析师 宁柯瑜 SAC：S1350525020001 ningkeyu@huayuanstock.com 董佳男 SAC：S1350524110002 dongjianan@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 为何将 Manus 类比为去年的 Kimi 时刻？ 后市怎么看？ 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 3页 ——计算机行业周报 20250303-20250309 投资要点： 本周计算机行情回顾：应用作为全年主线形成共识，市场只是纠结如何布局。本周 计算机涨幅 6.7%，位列申万行业第三。上周四与周五计算机开始回调，市场预期要 等待时日再反弹，但随着几家算力租赁的订单公告、以及 Manus 催化，本周行情继 续大涨。我们明显感受到机构在加大关注计算机的软件板块。 联系人 市场对 Manus 有分歧，但我们认为产业意义更大，终局是什么样、谁将最终跑出来 尚未定论，但 Manus 的范式对各家都有启示，我们能看到更多、更好的产品出来， 产业趋势的确定 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 09 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 美国关税叠加欧洲经济增长预期抬升，外盘铜价大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/3/3-2025/3/7） 投资要点： 风险提示：下游复产不及预期风险；国内房地产需求不振风险；新能源汽车增速不及预期风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：美国关税叠加德国大规模财政刺激提升欧洲经济增长预期，外盘铜价大涨。本周美铜/伦 铜/沪铜分别上涨 3.28%/3.01%/1.93%。本周二 ...

证券研究报告 贵金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 09 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 方皓 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税与地缘局势持续反复，金价维持高位震荡 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——贵金属双周报（2025/2/24-2025/3/8） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 贵金属板块：金银价格持续震荡。近两周，伦敦现货黄金下跌 0.10%至 2931.15 美 元/盎司，上期所黄金下跌 0.72%至 679.48 元/克，沪金持仓量下跌 11.97%至 32.28 万手；伦敦现货白银下跌 1.32%至 32.50 美元/盎司，上 ...

证券研究报告 航运港口 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 08 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： OPEC+复产一波三折，合规油贸添增量 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——航运船舶市场系列（十一） 资料来源：第一财经公众号，财经早餐公众号，日经中文网，隆众资讯公众号，华源证券研究所 图表 2：OPEC+减产行为短期内刺激油价，但油价整体保持震荡下行 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 5页 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：3 月 4 日，OPEC+宣布将从 2025 年 4 月起增加石油产量 13.8 万桶/日，并计 划到 2026 年逐步恢复 220 万桶/日产量。OPEC+从 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Maersk announced a significant increase in freight rates for routes from the Far East to Europe and the Mediterranean, with rates for major Asian ports to Rotterdam rising to $2,600/TEU and $4,000/FEU, effectively doubling the previous rates [2] - Shipping companies are actively raising rates to support long-term contract prices, especially in the context of a seasonal demand recovery expected in March and April [2] - The current shipping market is experiencing a traditional off-peak season, with the SCFI composite freight index dropping to 1,515.29 points, a 5% decrease week-on-week, and a 39.5% decline since the beginning of 2025 [2] - There is a notable "rate inversion" in the European line, where spot market prices are lower than the long-term contract prices, increasing the risk of contract defaults by shippers [2] - The expectation of a seasonal recovery in demand in March and April is anticipated to drive freight rates up, as factories resume operations post-Chinese New Year [2] - The delay in the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea is expected to support the bottom of European line freight rates due to increased transportation costs and reduced effective capacity [2] - In April, the European line capacity remains sufficient, with an average weekly capacity of 316,000 TEU, and a maximum of 2 blank sailings per week, which is 120% of the same period in 2024 [2][7] Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: Shipping companies are showing a strong willingness to raise prices, with several companies issuing price increase notices for European routes [2] - **Demand Recovery**: March and April typically see a seasonal recovery in demand, with expectations of increased freight volumes on European lines [2][4] - **Capacity and Pricing Dynamics**: The European line capacity is adequate, and the potential for price increases exists if demand rebounds alongside any increase in blank sailings [2][7]

证券研究报告 传媒 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 08 日 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 王世豪 SAC：S1350524120005 wangshihao@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： Manus 发布，AI Agent 的"iphone"时刻 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——AI 应用系列研究报告（二） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 中国团队推出 Manus，AI Agent 的"iphone"时刻。2025 年 3 月 6 日凌晨，中国 Monica.im 团队推出全球首款实现"全场景自主决策"的通用型 AI 代理 Manus。 在 GAIA 基准测试中，Manus 在所有三个难度级别上都取得了新的"最先进" （SOTA），其性能超越 Open AI 的同层次大模型。 联系人 Manus 的体验优势之一：自主规划和自主学习能力。Manus 能够自主规划来确保执 行任务，其自主学习能力也让 ...

风险提示：市场竞争加剧的风险；原料药价格出现波动的风险；创新药上市及研发 进度不及预期的风险。 公用环保 华润燃气(01193.HK)首次覆盖：聚焦燃气核心资产 红利逻辑愈发稳固。 全国城燃旗舰，背靠华润集团；公司主要布局一二线城市城燃项目，区位优势奠定 核心资产属性。1）行业层面而言，公司股价逐步走出地产竣工放缓及天然气高昂成 本阴影；2）内生变化来看，公司对接驳业务依赖度逐渐走低，综合服务及综合能源 业绩增长形成支撑，盈利结构优化助力业绩风险敞口收缩。城燃主业：成本端气价 维持低位+销售端顺价助力毛差回升，优质区域布局奠定售气增长潜力。经营现金流 大幅提升+资本开支收缩+负债率低，公司现金流充裕，潜在股息率仍具备较大增长 空间，配置价值凸显。 风险提示：上游气价格波动风险、售气量增长不及预期、双综业务增长低于预期、 接驳户数超预期下滑等。 证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 06 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月06日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 社融增速预计阶段性回升——2025 年 2 月金融数据预测：核心预判：依 据过往信贷投放规律及 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [5][8]. Core Views - The company is successfully transitioning from generic to innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant R&D investments expected to yield results in the near future. It has established itself as a leading player in the fields of large-volume intravenous solutions, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and innovative drugs, particularly in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector [7][10]. - The company has a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, with several products nearing commercialization, which presents substantial growth potential [7][10]. - The large-volume intravenous solutions segment is expected to maintain a stable competitive landscape, supported by an aging population and a solid market position [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. "Large-volume IV solutions + Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients + Innovative Drugs" as Growth Drivers - The company has a well-structured operational platform consisting of large-volume IV solutions, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and innovative drugs, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and new materials [19]. - The company has established a comprehensive industrial production system in the antibiotic intermediate sector, leveraging regional advantages [19]. 2. Sustained High R&D Investment - The company has invested nearly 11.9 billion RMB in R&D over the past decade, which is expected to enhance its position in the global ADC market [7][10]. - The ADC development platform "OptiDC" has been recognized internationally, with multiple projects in various stages of clinical development [32][34]. 3. Stable Landscape for Large-volume IV Solutions - The market for large-volume IV solutions has stabilized, with the top five companies accounting for approximately 80% of the market share [7][10]. - The demand for large-volume IV solutions is expected to grow steadily due to demographic trends, despite short-term price fluctuations [7][10]. 4. Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients Supply and Demand - The antibiotic intermediate sector has seen a reduction in outdated production capacity, leading to a stable market environment [7][10]. - The company is a leading supplier of antibiotic intermediates, with a strong market position and stable demand for its products [7][10]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 30.6 billion RMB, 28.0 billion RMB, and 36.2 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 24.6%, -8.4%, and 29.1% [6][8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 16, 18, and 14 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a focus on its core gas assets and a solid dividend logic [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a national leader in city gas, backed by China Resources Group, with a significant presence in first- and second-tier cities, enhancing its core asset attributes [9][17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins due to lower gas prices and improved sales pricing mechanisms, which are expected to support revenue growth [12][42]. - The company’s cash flow has significantly improved, with a notable increase in operating cash flow and a reduction in capital expenditures, indicating a strong potential for dividend growth [22][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of March 5, 2025, was HKD 26.10, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,395.74 million [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is HKD 55.63 billion, HKD 61.72 billion, and HKD 67.65 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [6][10]. - The expected dividend yields for 2024-2026 are 4.6%, 5.1%, and 5.6% based on the current stock price [6][10]. Business Overview - The company operates 276 city gas projects, with a retail gas volume increasing from 1.371 billion cubic meters in 2008 to 38.784 billion cubic meters in 2023, maintaining a market share of 9.83% in 2023 [17][18]. - The revenue structure has shifted, with gas sales becoming the primary profit driver, accounting for 56.15% of tax-preferred profits in 2023 [18][20]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The operating cash flow reached HKD 10.16 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 133.4%, with a free cash flow of HKD 1.9 billion in the first half of 2024 [22][24]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 29.8% in 2016 to 50.3% in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.15% in dividends per share since 2008 [25][60]. Strategic Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in economically developed regions, benefiting from high population density and industrial clustering, which supports gas sales growth [38][40]. - The report highlights the potential for further market consolidation and growth in the city gas sector, driven by government policies promoting mergers and acquisitions [40][46]. Risk Management - The company has managed to reduce its reliance on connection profits, with a significant increase in comprehensive service and energy business profits, which helps mitigate risks associated with declining connection revenues [12][53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential in the automotive seating sector [5][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected 18.66% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 [5]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of core components for automotive seat adjustment systems, offering customized high-performance parts [5]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is 304 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.99%, with a net profit of approximately 78.95 million yuan [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 29.60 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 3,054.72 million yuan [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 258 million yuan in 2023 to 304 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.99% [7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 67 million yuan in 2023 to 79 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.90% growth rate [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.64 yuan in 2023 to 0.77 yuan in 2024 [7]. Business Development - The company is expanding its product lines, including electric hinges and assembly products, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth [5]. - The company has a high gross margin of around 45%, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [5][6]. Market Trends - The automotive industry is expected to see a production and sales increase, with new energy vehicles projected to account for 40.9% of total vehicle sales in 2024, up from 9.3 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The market for automotive seats is projected to grow, with a production volume of 15,976.8 million units in 2023 and a demand of 15,308.7 million units [5].