Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improved risk indicators and an acceleration in loan facilitation growth, with a projected 11% quarter-on-quarter profit growth in Q4 2024 [3][2]. - The target price has been raised from $6.30 to $7.20, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% [3][10]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 624 million RMB, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][2]. - The company's net income for Q3 2024 grew by 2.5% year-on-year and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, while expenses increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Loan Facilitation Growth - Loan facilitation in Q3 2024 grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with domestic and international markets growing by 0.8% and 22% respectively [2]. - The company maintains its annual guidance for loan facilitation growth at 5-10% for the domestic market and 20-40% for the international market [2]. International Business Expansion - The international business accounted for 5.2% of loan facilitation in Q3 2024, with revenue contribution from international operations rising to 19.4%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company aims for international business to represent 50% of total revenue by 2030 [2]. Risk Indicators - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 2.5%, a decrease of 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while the collection rate increased to 88.5%, up 50 basis points [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Dada Group (DADA US) with a target price of $1.40, indicating a potential downside of 10.8% from the current price of $1.57 [4][9]. Core Insights - Dada Group's business adjustments are expected to have a short-term impact, but the performance in JD's ecosystem is strong, laying a foundation for long-term growth [3]. - In Q3 2024, Dada Group reported revenues of 2.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, which was better than market expectations [1][7]. - The adjusted net loss for the quarter was 59 million RMB, corresponding to a loss rate of 2%, which was also better than market forecasts [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance - Dada Group's revenue for Q3 2024 was 2.4 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year but above expectations [1][7]. - Dada Express revenue increased by 39% due to a rise in same-city delivery orders from chain brands [1][2]. - JD's instant delivery revenue fell by 40% due to a decline in advertising revenue and reduced fulfillment service income [1][2]. Operational Highlights - JD's instant delivery service saw a 100%+ year-on-year increase in monthly active users and order volume [2]. - The number of instant delivery stores increased by over 70% year-on-year to more than 600,000 [2]. - Dada Express completed orders and gross revenue grew by 36% and 33% year-on-year, respectively, due to improved pricing competitiveness [2]. Outlook and Valuation - The report anticipates that adjustments in JD's instant delivery business will continue until 2025, with uncertainties in revenue from advertising monetization [3]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards primarily due to uncertainties in advertising monetization, leading to an expected loss of 430 million RMB and 245 million RMB for those years [3][11]. - The target price has been revised down to $1.40 from $1.50, maintaining a Neutral rating [3][9].

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the internet industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The domestic mobile game market remained stable in October, with Tencent's revenue showing resilience and NetEase's revenue decline narrowing [1][5] - Tencent's domestic mobile game revenue increased by 1.1 billion CNY (+13% YoY), while NetEase's domestic revenue decreased by 400 million CNY (-10% YoY) [2][12] - The report highlights the performance of new games and the impact of high base figures from previous years on revenue trends [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections October Mobile Game Performance - The total revenue of top mobile games tracked in October showed a slight decline of 1% YoY and 2% MoM, primarily due to high base figures from games like "逆水寒" and "崩坏：星穹铁道" [5][6] - Tencent and NetEase had 5 and 3 titles respectively in the top ten revenue rankings, with "无尽冬日" achieving a revenue of approximately 750 million CNY in October [1][5] Investment Implications - Tencent (700HK/Buy, current price corresponding to 17x 2024 P/E) saw a 15% YoY increase in mobile game revenue, with expectations for continued growth in Q3 and Q4 [3][22] - NetEase (NTES US/Buy, current price corresponding to 11x 2024 P/E) experienced a 9% YoY decline in mobile game revenue, but the decline rate has significantly narrowed compared to Q3 [3][22] Game Launches and Regulatory Environment - October saw no major new game launches, but several new titles were released in Q3, with NetEase's "炉石传说" leading in performance [2][8] - A total of 113 domestic and 15 imported game licenses were issued in October, indicating a normalization in the regulatory environment [19][20] Company Valuations - Key gaming companies are rated as follows: Tencent at 17.1x 2024E P/E, NetEase at 11.4x 2024E P/E, and others showing varying valuations [24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" [4][3]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with a revenue drop of 7.9% year-on-year to 13.05 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1% due to increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [1][3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of 0.14 RMB per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.4%, and an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years [1][3]. - The total number of stores decreased by over 300, with 5,813 stores in operation by the end of the first half of fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 396 stores. However, the quality of membership continues to improve, with a total membership of 81 million, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its brand partnerships to capture future growth potential, including collaborations with high-end brands in the trail running segment and digital operation platforms [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending February 29, 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 26.58 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be 1.472 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 RMB, with a significant adjustment of -42.2% from previous forecasts [6][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.3 times for 2025, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [6][10].

Group 1: Election Timeline - The 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, with preliminary results expected to start coming in after 7 PM EST on the same day[2] - Historically, most election results are announced on election night, except for the 2020 election, which was delayed due to a high number of mail-in ballots[3] - If no candidate secures 270 electoral votes, the election outcome may be decided by Congress in January 2025[3] Group 2: Electoral Votes Distribution - The Democratic Party has a solid base in 22 states with a total of 226 electoral votes, while the Republican Party has a stronghold in 27 states totaling 219 electoral votes[11] - A total of 538 electoral votes are available, with 93 votes from swing states being crucial for reaching the 270-vote threshold needed to win[11] Group 3: Swing States Analysis - Key swing states include Pennsylvania (19 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Nevada (6 votes)[11] - Current polling shows Trump leading in Arizona (+3%) and Georgia (+1%), while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin[14] Group 4: Early Voting Trends - Early voting is lower in 2024 compared to 2020, with significant early voting in North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, where Republicans are leading[25] - In contrast, early voting in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania shows Democratic leads, with margins of +8%, +3%, and +24% respectively[25] Group 5: Importance of Key States - Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are critical for the Democrats, as losing any of these states could lead to a Republican victory despite winning other states[27] - Pennsylvania is particularly significant, having historically leaned Democratic except for the 2016 election, and is currently highly competitive[29]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 379.22, implying a 28.5% upside from the current price of HKD 295.00 [1][2][6] Core Views - 3Q24 gross margin exceeded expectations at 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by improved auto business margin due to lower lithium carbonate prices, economies of scale, and DMI 5.0 model ramp-up [1] - 3Q24 net profit rose 11.5% YoY and 28.1% QoQ to RMB 11.6 billion, with revenue up 24.0% YoY and 14.2% QoQ to RMB 201.1 billion [1] - Operating expenses surged QoQ, with sales/management/R&D expenses up 27.8%/20.1%/52.0% respectively, hitting record highs due to increased spending on premium models and smart features [1] - 4Q24 sales expected to rise to 1.3-1.5 million units (vs 1.13 million in 3Q24) on seasonal strength and DMI 5.0 model ramp-up, with further margin improvement potential from economies of scale [2] - Premium models and exports yet to contribute meaningfully, with Denza Z9 GT starting deliveries in September and Fangchengbao's Leopard 8 not yet launched [2] - Overseas sales impacted by EU tariffs in 3Q24, but new market entries (Vietnam, Pakistan, Tunisia) and upcoming overseas plant production expected to boost export volumes [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024-26E net profit forecasts raised by 14%/19.4%/23.3% to reflect higher sales volume and margin improvement from premium models and exports [2] - 2024E revenue forecast at RMB 764.8 billion (+27.0% YoY), with net profit of RMB 41.1 billion (+36.9% YoY) [3] - 2025E revenue forecast at RMB 905.4 billion (+18.4% YoY), with net profit of RMB 52.4 billion (+27.4% YoY) [3] - 2026E revenue forecast at RMB 1,056.9 billion (+16.7% YoY), with net profit of RMB 64.5 billion (+23.1% YoY) [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.5% in 2024E to 21.4% in 2026E, with net margin rising from 5.4% to 6.1% over the same period [8] Industry Context - BYD maintains strong position in sub-RMB 200k passenger vehicle market with vertical supply chain and high-margin advantages [2] - Increasing focus on premium models (Denza, Fangchengbao) and smart features through partnerships (e.g., Huawei) [2] - Overseas expansion ongoing with new market entries and local production, though near-term headwinds from EU tariffs [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 65.10 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 operational data aligns with expectations, with retail gas sales volume increasing by 5.5% year-on-year, driven by residential and commercial sales growth of 4.6% and 6.2% respectively [1]. - The management anticipates that the overall sales volume for retail gas will grow by 5% and segment gross profit will increase by 10% for the full year of 2024 [1]. - The diversified energy segment is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 20% for the full year, supported by new projects transitioning to operations and additional management services contributing to revenue [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Gas Sales - Q3 retail gas sales volume reached 5,793 million cubic meters, with residential sales at 714 million cubic meters and commercial sales at 4,973 million cubic meters [4]. - The gross margin for gas sales was reported at RMB 0.54 per cubic meter, consistent with the annual guidance [1][5]. Capital Expenditure and Financials - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was RMB 4.6 billion, significantly below the annual guidance of RMB 8 billion, with management prioritizing debt repayment over additional buybacks or dividends [2]. - The LNG trading segment reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 280 million for the first three quarters, within the guidance range of RMB 200-300 million [2]. Future Guidance - The company has set ambitious targets for 2024, including a 20-30% growth in energy usage scale and a 20-30% increase in smart home business gross profit [4]. - The annual target for new commercial users is set at 1,200 to 1,400 million cubic meters per day, with residential user additions expected to be between 140,000 to 160,000 households [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for CIMC Enric (3899 HK) with a target price of **HKD 8.45**, representing a potential upside of **24.1%** [6] Core Views - CIMC Enric's Q3 2024 revenue increased by **10% YoY to RMB 6.49 billion**, driven by strong growth in the clean energy segment, which saw a **28% YoY increase to RMB 4.72 billion** [1] - The company's total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 grew by **8% YoY**, with the clean energy segment contributing a **26% YoY increase** [1] - The clean energy segment's growth was primarily fueled by the delivery of **3 vessels (1 LNG bunkering vessel + 2 LEG carriers)** in Q3, bringing the total deliveries to **7 vessels** by the end of October 2024 [1] - Despite a **14% YoY decline in hydrogen product revenue** in Q3, the clean energy segment's backlog increased by **43% YoY**, although the growth rate slowed compared to the **70-71% YoY increase** in Q1-Q2 2024 [1] Segment Performance Clean Energy - Q3 2024 clean energy revenue reached **RMB 4.72 billion**, up **28% YoY**, with offshore clean energy revenue surging **74.6% YoY** [1] - Hydrogen product revenue declined by **14% YoY** in Q3, with the backlog for hydrogen products dropping **24% YoY to RMB 320 million** [1] - The clean energy backlog stood at **RMB 15.51 billion** in Q3, up **43% YoY** [1] Chemical & Liquid Food - Chemical equipment revenue in Q3 2024 fell **25% YoY**, with new orders growing **31% QoQ** but still down **26% YoY** [2] - Liquid food equipment revenue declined **13% YoY** in Q3, with the backlog down **14% YoY** [2] - Management cited cautious capital expenditure from overseas clients and uncertain global consumption growth as key challenges for these segments [2] Order Backlog - Total backlog at the end of Q3 2024 was **RMB 27.7 billion**, up **25% YoY** but down **6% QoQ** [1] - Clean energy equipment backlog reached **RMB 15.51 billion**, while chemical and liquid food equipment backlogs stood at **RMB 1.44 billion** and **RMB 5.21 billion**, respectively [4] Management Guidance - Management maintained its 2024 full-year revenue growth guidance of **>10% YoY** and core profit growth in the **single-digit range** [2] - The hydrogen product revenue target for 2024 remains unchanged at **RMB 900 million** [2] - A delayed South American liquid food project is expected to be delivered in **2025** [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.80, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of $10.50 [1][3][6]. Core Insights - TAL Education's revenue for Q2 FY2025 reached $619 million, representing a 50% year-over-year increase, surpassing both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates of 45% and 46% respectively. This growth was primarily driven by strong demand for quality education training and sales of learning machines [1]. - The adjusted operating profit for the same quarter was $65 million, with an operating margin of 10%, which is a decline of approximately 2 percentage points year-over-year but still better than expectations [1]. - The report highlights that the learning services segment saw an estimated revenue growth of around 80% year-over-year, driven by strong demand and an increase in enrollment due to the expansion of teaching points [1]. - The sales of learning machines also maintained high growth, with estimated sales of 100,000 to 150,000 units in Q2, supported by the launch of new products [1]. - Marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue increased by nearly 6 percentage points to 29%, while management expenses decreased by 9 percentage points to 19%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [1]. Financial Projections - For Q3 FY2025, which is typically a slower season for the education industry, revenue is expected to grow by 39% year-over-year to $520 million, supported by the performance of small class training and new product sales [1]. - The report projects an adjusted operating profit margin of -3.5% for Q3, compared to -2.7% in the same period last year [1]. - The financial outlook for FY2025 estimates total revenue of $2.103 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 41.1% [2][5][8]. Valuation - The report adjusts the FY2025 operating profit estimate to $48 million, reflecting better-than-expected performance in the current quarter, with a profit margin of 2% [1]. - For FY2026 and FY2027, the operating profit margins are expected to stabilize at approximately 6% and 10%, with absolute profit values of $146 million and $274 million respectively [1]. - The valuation methodology includes a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for the education business and a 1x price-to-sales ratio for learning machines, supporting the target price of $13.80 [1].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------|-------------|----------|---------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n公司更新 \n互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | | 爱奇艺 | 美元 2.41 (IQ US) | 美元 3.80 | +57.7% | 2024 年 10 月 22 日 | 3 季度预览：会员及品牌广告承压，汇兑收益或带动利润超此前预期 上调3 季度净利润预期：我们基本维持3季度收入/经调整运营利润预期72 亿元/3.5 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 10%/61%，主要因会员及品牌广 告收入承压。考虑人民币升值带来汇兑收益，我们上调经调整净利润至 4.5 亿元（高于彭博一致预期的 1.2 亿元），对应经调整净利率 6%，同/环 比-2/+3 个百分点。 会员及品牌广告承压：对比 3 季度云合 TOP20 剧集/综艺播放份额，爱奇 艺剧集播放份额 37%，好于上半年表现（20%）；综艺方面 ...