Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced significant volatility, with a notable fluctuation on October 8, 2024, prompting a cautious outlook for future trends[1] - The report emphasizes the need to analyze the market through the lens of stock holdings, categorizing them into foreign brokers, southbound funds, local Chinese brokers, and internet brokers[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Since late September, the market value proportion of several sample groups has been rising, indicating that both Chinese and foreign investors are actively buying into the market, with foreign investment slightly more pronounced[2] - Both Chinese and foreign investors are adjusting their portfolios to reduce deviations from benchmark indices, with Chinese investors over-allocating to financial sectors while under-allocating to consumer discretionary sectors, and vice versa for foreign investors[3] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The financial and consumer discretionary sectors are expected to remain key battlegrounds for capital allocation, with short-selling ratios in these sectors dropping to their lowest levels since 2023, aligning with the trend of reducing benchmark deviations[3] - The report highlights that the adjustment in allocations is contributing significantly to trading volumes, indicating a crowded trade environment that is increasing market volatility[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates further adjustments in holdings as upcoming policy announcements are expected to influence market dynamics, particularly in the financial and consumer sectors[4] - Key upcoming meetings, including a press conference on October 12, 2024, are expected to provide insights into fiscal policy directions that could impact market sentiment and sector performance[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New World Development (17 HK) with a target price of HKD 11.44, indicating a potential upside of 21.9% from the current closing price of HKD 9.39 [1][7]. Core Insights - New World Development reported a core profit decline of 47.5% year-on-year to HKD 1.377 billion, primarily due to a decrease in the number of deliverable projects in Hong Kong. The company's revenue for FY2024 fell by 34% to HKD 35.782 billion [2][6]. - Rental income showed resilience, with K11 and overall rental income increasing by 11.9% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively. The occupancy rates for K11 MUSEA and K11 Art Mall remained high at 97% and 99% [2][6]. - The company plans to reduce leverage, targeting the disposal of HKD 13 billion in non-core assets by FY2025, which is expected to help save interest costs and restore profitability [2][6]. Financial Summary - For FY2024, total revenue is projected at HKD 35.782 billion, down from HKD 54.566 billion in FY2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.4% [5][8]. - Core profit is expected to be HKD 1.377 billion for FY2024, a decrease of 47.5% compared to HKD 2.620 billion in FY2023 [5][8]. - The company plans to pay a total dividend of HKD 0.2 per share for FY2024, significantly lower than HKD 0.76 per share in FY2023 [5][8]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 14.23 and a low of HKD 6.28, with a market capitalization of HKD 23.631 billion and an average daily trading volume of 49.55 million shares [4][6]. - Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 22.52% [4][6]. Future Projections - Revenue is expected to recover slightly in FY2025 to HKD 42.999 billion, with a projected year-on-year growth of 20.2% [5][8]. - Core earnings per share are forecasted to increase gradually from HKD 0.55 in FY2024 to HKD 0.79 by FY2027 [5][8].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 9 月 26 日 行业评级 领先 医药行业周报 生物安全法案暂受阻，降息+催化剂落地推动板块投资情绪持续改善 行情回顾：本周（2024/09/17-09/25）恒指涨 8.3%，恒生医疗保健指数涨 4.3%，12 个指数行业中排 10 位，跑输大市。子行业：医疗保健技术 （+18.5%）、生命科学工具和服务（+7.4%）、医疗保健服务（+7.1%）、医 疗保健设备与用品（+6.7%）、制药（+4.6%）、生物科技（+1.8%）。 生物安全法案未被纳入 NDAA，药明生物从法案除名。9 月 19 日，美国参 议院发布 NDAA 草案，S. Amdt. 2166（生物安全法案）并未包含在内，意 味着生物安全法案大概率无法联合其他法案立法，只剩单独立法途径，而 年内单独立法可能性也有所下降。9 月23 日，参议院的最新版S.3558 号法 案未纳入药明生物，但药明康德、华大基因、华大制造等依旧在列。 大批国采中选药品价格调整启动。目前四川、江西、宁夏等 9 省，及广东 深圳已公开发布通知响应国家医保局《74 号函》，对于第一批至第七批 国采中非供应省份挂网价高于集采中选价1.5 ...

市场策略 美联储首次降息后的 大类资产影响及配置 蔡瑞,CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com (852)37661808 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 2024年9月25日 美联储首次降息后，大类资产如何配置？ 自1990年以来的历次降息周期中，在美联储首次降息后，黄金、债券胜率相对较高，而股票、大宗商品表现 不一，美元多呈下降趋势，非美货币普遍上涨。 股票：首次降息后，全球股市短期总体呈负面反馈，但个别年份波动较大，主要取决于基本面状况。虽然平 均表现来看，全球股指在首次降息后平均略有跌幅，但新兴市场股指表现好于发达市场。2024年初至今，发 达市场涨幅仍高于新兴市场涨幅，意味着降息后新兴市场可能存在更大上涨空间。具体到美股和港股： • 美股：短期上涨前景仍存，但空间可能有限。在历次降息前后，短期内美股市场反应可能不稳定，甚至为 负，但随着时间推移，股市 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 2024 年 9 月 25 日 金融行业 国新会金融政策解读：看好金融板块表现 9 月 24 日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局和证监会 公布多项新的政策举措。我们预计这些政策将显著改善股票市场流动性， 提振股票市场风险偏好，改善风险领域资产质量，推动金融行业的高质量 发展，加大对实体经济支持力度，积极看好金融板块的表现。 保险行业：1）央行创设两项新的结构性货币政策工具：证券、基金、保 险公司互换便利和股票回购、增持再贷款，将显著改善股票市场流动性， 预计将推动股票市场在目前较低估值水平上呈现回升态势，提升保险公司 股票投资收益；2）证监会将于近日印发《关于推动中长期资金入市的指 导意见》，保险资金作为中长期资金的重要组成部分，预计监管将有支持 保险资金加大股权投资力度的相关政策出台，打通影响保险资金长期投资 的制度障碍；3）保险公司下半年面临较低的盈利基数，盈利进一步回升 具有较高确定性；4）预定利率动态调整机制有利于缓解行业利差损风险， 同时储蓄型保险产品仍将保持相对银行存款的收益率相对优势；4）估值 仍具吸引力。推荐：中国平安（2318 HK）、中国太保（260 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 估值概要 2024 年 9 月 24 日 证券行业 行业评级 领先↑ 半年报业绩回顾：2 季度盈利降幅收窄，当前估值有吸引力 2024年2季度上市券商盈利降幅收窄，资管业务表现稳定。2024上半年A 股 43 家上市券商（不含东方财富）归母净利润同比下降 22.2%，降幅较 1 季度收窄 10 个百分点，2 季度单季盈利同比降 11.4%。多重因素驱动上半 年营收同比下降。轻资产业务收入同比下降主要来自投行业务和经纪业 务，资管业务表现相对稳定。2 季度自营投资收益表现较好，同环比均有 所提升。净利息收入同比下降29.7%，降幅较1季度（-36.2%）有所收窄。 头部券商盈利降幅略好于上市券商平均降幅。前十大券商上半年盈利同比 下降 20.1%（vs.上市券商平均降幅-22.2%）。核心营收同比下降 17.7% （vs.上市券商-16.9%），其中，自营投资收益表现好于上市券商平均，但 投行、资管、净利息收入同比降幅超过上市券商平均降幅，同时头部券商 费用压缩力度更大，使得盈利表现略好于上市券商平均降幅。 资产规模小幅下降，自营投资结构发生变化。截至2024年6月末，上市券 商总资产较 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [3][7]. Core Insights - The company's high-end product series has driven profit margin improvements, but future profit growth may be limited. The company reported a revenue of 10.09 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while the infant formula industry experienced a double-digit decline. Gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 67.9% due to product structure optimization and the continued growth of high-end series [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.1632 HKD per share, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a payout ratio of 72% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, corresponding to a net profit margin of 18.9%. Operating profit was 3.06 billion RMB, with an operating profit margin of 30.3%, up nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 20.8 billion RMB for 2024E, 22.2 billion RMB for 2025E, and 23.3 billion RMB for 2026E, with expected growth rates of 6.5%, 6.5%, and 5.0% respectively [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The growth drivers for the company include increasing consumer confidence in domestic infant formula quality, the release of new national standards raising industry entry barriers, and the growth of the high-end market segment [2]. - The company has been removing low-end product lines and focusing on high-end and ultra-high-end series, which has contributed to the significant increase in gross margin [2]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 4.00 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times the 2025 earnings, reflecting a conservative outlook due to ongoing industry pressures and limited profit growth potential [2].

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n消息快报 | | | | | | 数据中心 | 2024 年 8 月 29 日 | | 世纪互联 (VNET US) | | | 2 季度业绩符合预期； AI 算力驱动基地型 IDC | 业务增长 | 2 季度业绩符合预期，全年指引保持不变。2024 年 2 季度，公司收入 19.9 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长 9.4%；经调整 EBITDA 为 5.74 亿元，同 比提高7.3%，约为我们2024 财年预测（23.3 亿元）的24.7%，基本符合预 期。公司维持全年业绩指引不变，预计全年收入在 78-80 亿元之间，同比 增速在 5.2%-7.9%；预计调整后 EBITDA 在 22.2-22.8 亿元之间，同比增速在 8.9%-11.8%之间。 AI 算力驱动基地型 IDC 业务增长，全年资本开支指引上调。2024 年 2 季 度，公司基地型 IDC 业务实现收入 4.0 亿元，环比增长 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 29.05 | 港元 39.29↑ | +35.3% | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) MONA 系列有望引领销量进入第二成长曲线，上调评级至买入 M03 最终价格或极具竞争力，能耗/车机和语音系统比同级别更为优秀。 小鹏将会在 8 月 27 日（今晚）的十周年庆公布 M03 的最终价格，我们认 为最终价格或极具竞争力。M03 的试驾已经提早在上周未和昨天展开，从 渠道观察，小鹏大概率会先交付续航里程515km和620km两个版本。这2 个版本都会配备 360 度全景影像和 L2+的驾驶辅助功能（LCC, ACC 和 APA 等驾驶辅助功能）。第三个搭载 OrinX 芯片的 MAX 版本，具备更高级别的 智驾功能，则有可能在年底才开始交付。此前我们在报告中提到，小鹏的 纯视觉智驾方案有可能首发在 4 季度发布的 P7+上，MAX 版本可能会在小 鹏发布纯视觉智驾方案的更新后才会交付。从我们试驾来观察 ，M03 的 百公里能耗十分优秀在 11 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 8 月 16 日 互联网行业月报 行业评级 领先 7 月电商月报：大盘回暖；主要平台 3 季度增速恢复 7 月实物电商网上零售额调整后同比增8.1%（对比2 季度+6.4%）。分品类 看，7 月，餐饮消费（+3%）增速继续放缓，因去年同期线下需求恢复， 基数较高；部分品类增速较 6 月恢复，通讯器材（+13%）回到双位数增 长，暑期出行拉动体育、娱乐用品也恢复双位数增速（+11%），日用品 微增（+2%），家用电器（-2%）/化妆品（-6%）跌幅收窄。邮政局预测， 7 月快递业务量同比增约 22%，持续受电商件低客单价趋势带动。 各电商公司陆续公布 2 季度业绩。1）阿里淘天 GMV 同比高个位数增长， CMR 增 1%，增速差主要由于商业化率较低的新业务模式 GMV 占比增加， 导致变现率下降。2）京东收入符合预期，带电收入下降因空调高基数， 非带电中商超收入保持双位数增长。利润超预期主要来自毛利率同比提 升，得益于供应链能力建设、价格竞争力提升及补贴降低。 展望：1）阿里：考虑全站推效果逐渐体现及 9 月起针对淘宝/闲鱼商家 0.6%的技术服务收入影响，我们预计 9 ...