Quantitative Models and Construction Barra Risk Model - **Model Name**: Barra Risk Model (Barra CNE6) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to reduce the dimensionality of asset returns, enabling the calculation of covariance matrices between assets, which are essential for portfolio optimization. It uses constrained weighted least squares (WLS) to address multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity issues, constructing pure factor portfolios that isolate exposure to individual factors [3][9][11] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The cross-sectional asset returns are modeled using a multi-factor linear regression: $R_{t}=\alpha+\beta\lambda_{t}+\varepsilon_{t}$ Here, $\beta$ represents factor exposures, $\lambda_{t}$ denotes factor returns, and $\varepsilon_{t}$ is the residual [9][10] 2. The covariance matrix of asset returns is derived as: $\Sigma_{R}=\beta\Sigma_{A}\beta^{T}+\Sigma_{E}$ $\Sigma_{A}$ is the covariance matrix of factors, and $\Sigma_{E}$ is the covariance matrix of residuals [11][12] 3. Factor exposures are standardized using market capitalization-weighted normalization: $$\widehat{\boldsymbol{\beta}_{t-1}^{j}}=\frac{{\boldsymbol{\beta}_{t-1}^{j}}-\frac{\sum_{i}^{N}s_{i,t-1}\beta_{i,t-1}^{j}}{\sum_{i}^{N}s_{i,t-1}}}{s t d({\boldsymbol{\beta}_{t-1}^{j}})}$$ Here, $s_{i,t-1}$ represents the market capitalization of stock $i$ at time $t-1$ [18][32] 4. Industry factor returns are constrained to ensure neutrality: $\sum_{i=1}^{P}s_{I_{i}}\lambda_{i}^{I_{i}}=0$ [18][22] 5. Factor returns are estimated using constrained WLS: $$\lambda_{t}=C_{t}(C_{t}\beta_{t-1}W^{-1}\beta_{t-1}C_{t})^{-1}C_{t}\beta_{t-1}W^{-1}R_{t}$$ Here, $W$ is the weight matrix, and $C_{t}$ represents constraints [20][25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively isolates factor exposures, enabling better evaluation of factor returns. However, pure factor portfolios have low investability due to constraints like short-selling limitations [19][21] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Style Factors - **Factor Names**: Size, Volatility, Liquidity, Momentum, Quality, Value, Growth, Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors represent different market characteristics, such as size, volatility, and growth, and are used to explain asset returns and identify systematic risks [3][15][26] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Size**: Logarithm of market capitalization (LNCAP) [114] 2. **Volatility**: Includes Beta, historical sigma, daily standard deviation, and cumulative range [114] 3. **Liquidity**: Calculated using turnover ratios (monthly, quarterly, annual) and annualized traded value ratio [114] 4. **Momentum**: Includes short-term reversal, seasonality, industry momentum, and relative strength [114][115] 5. **Quality**: Includes earnings variability, accruals, profitability metrics, and investment quality [114][116] 6. **Value**: Includes book-to-price ratio, earnings-to-price ratio, and enterprise multiple [114][116] 7. **Growth**: Historical growth rates for earnings per share and sales per share [114][116] 8. **Dividend Yield**: Dividend-to-price ratio [114][116] - **Factor Evaluation**: Single-factor tests show limited stock selection ability, with low significance and effectiveness. However, after constructing pure factor models, the significance of factors improves, especially for Volatility and Momentum [66][78] Residual Factor - **Factor Name**: Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Residuals represent the unexplained portion of stock returns after accounting for industry, style, and country factors. They are tested for nonlinear relationships with stock returns [79][82] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Residuals are derived from the regression model: $R_{t}=\beta_{t-1}C_{t}\gamma_{t}+\delta_{t}$ Here, $\delta_{t}$ represents residuals [23][79] 2. Residuals are used as stock selection factors and tested using layered backtesting [79][82] - **Factor Evaluation**: Residual factors exhibit strong nonlinear relationships with stock returns, showing robust stock selection ability. Middle-layer groups outperform top and bottom groups significantly [79][82] --- Backtesting Results Pure Factor Model - **Size**: Annualized return -2.75%, annualized volatility 0.026, maximum drawdown 35.53%, Sharpe ratio -1.08 [76][77] - **Volatility**: Annualized return 1.93%, annualized volatility 0.049, maximum drawdown 12.43%, Sharpe ratio 0.39 [76][77] - **Liquidity**: Annualized return -5.90%, annualized volatility 0.033, maximum drawdown 60.88%, Sharpe ratio -1.81 [76][77] - **Momentum**: Annualized return -5.57%, annualized volatility 0.042, maximum drawdown 58.64%, Sharpe ratio -1.32 [76][77] - **Growth**: Annualized return -0.21%, annualized volatility 0.015, maximum drawdown 9.24%, Sharpe ratio -0.15 [76][77] - **Dividend Yield**: Annualized return -0.85%, annualized volatility 0.016, maximum drawdown 17.09%, Sharpe ratio -0.52 [76][77] - **Quality**: Annualized return 0.35%, annualized volatility 0.016, maximum drawdown 8.45%, Sharpe ratio 0.23 [76][77] - **Value**: Annualized return 1.38%, annualized volatility 0.028, maximum drawdown 13.83%, Sharpe ratio 0.49 [76][77] Residual Factor - **Middle Layer (Group 5)**: Annualized return 17.98%, annualized volatility 26.94%, Sharpe ratio 0.68, maximum drawdown 52.50% [82] - **Top vs Bottom Layer (Group 5 vs Group 10)**: Excess annualized return 13.58%, excess Sharpe ratio 1.50 [82] --- Index Attribution Results Positive Excess Return Indices - **Indices**: CSI 500 (3.41%), ChiNext Index (18.23%) - **Key Drivers**: Small-cap, high volatility, low liquidity, high growth, low dividend yield styles; leading sectors include non-ferrous metals, electronics, communication, and new energy [101][110] Negative Excess Return Indices - **Indices**: CSI 1000 (-0.22%), CSI A500 (-1.60%), CSI 300 (-4.30%), SSE 50 (-10.27%) - **Key Drivers**: Large-cap, low volatility, high liquidity, low growth, high dividend yield styles; underperforming sectors include banking, non-bank finance, and food & beverage [101][110]

金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 江海证券研究发展部 分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号：S1410524090001 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 部下跌，其中中证 500（-0.71%）和上证 50（-0.71%）跌幅最大。当年涨跌情况， 创业板指（49.87%）涨幅最大，其次是中证 2000（33.25%）和中证 500（24.37%）， 中证 1000（23.88%）和中证全指（22.15%）涨幅缩小，而上证 50（11.67%）涨幅 最小。另外，创业板指连续四日连阳。 ◆均线比较：所有跟踪指数仍在 5、10 及 20 日均线之上。中证 1000 重新跌回 60 ◆资金占比与换手：2025 年 12 月 9 日, 中证 2000（25.43%）交易金额占比最高， 相关研究报告 日均线。市场持续震荡。 态 2025.12.09 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 态 2025.12.08 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 态 2025.12.05 其次是沪深 300（24.33%）和中证 1000（21.11%）。各宽基指数当前换手率分别为 中证 2000 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The gaming sector shows strong performance with leading companies demonstrating significant revenue generation, particularly Tencent and Century Huatong, which ranked first and second in global mobile game publisher revenue [3][4] - The number of domestic game licenses issued in 2025 has increased by 29.39% year-on-year, indicating a supportive regulatory environment for the gaming industry [4] - The gaming sector is characterized by strong cash flow, ongoing policy support, and deepening AI game development, making it an attractive investment opportunity [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -3.47% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 12.26% [2] Market Developments - In November 2025, 33 Chinese companies made it to the global top 100 mobile game publishers, collectively generating $1.95 billion, which accounts for 35.8% of the total revenue of the top 100 publishers [3] - The flagship game "Whiteout Survival" from Century Huatong contributed 54% of its revenue in November, with total earnings exceeding $3.8 billion [3] Regulatory Environment - The National Press and Publication Administration issued 1,532 domestic game licenses from January to November 2025, reflecting a 29.39% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [4]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, and valuation metrics such as PE-TTM and risk premiums[1][2][3] - The analysis highlights that all broad-based indices experienced gains on December 8, 2025, with the ChiNext Index (2.6%) and CSI 2000 (1.47%) showing the largest daily increases. For the year-to-date performance, the ChiNext Index (48.97%) recorded the highest growth, followed by CSI 2000 (33.97%) and CSI 500 (25.27%)[10][11] - All indices have surpassed their 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with CSI 1000 and CSI All Share also breaking above their 60-day moving averages. However, CSI 500 remains below its 60-day moving average, indicating a continued market recovery[14][15] - The turnover rates for December 8, 2025, were highest for CSI 2000 (4.34), followed by ChiNext Index (2.78) and CSI 1000 (2.47). The lowest turnover rates were observed for SSE 50 (0.26) and CSI 300 (0.61)[17] - The distribution of daily returns shows that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative kurtosis deviation, while CSI 1000 has the smallest. Similarly, the ChiNext Index exhibits the largest negative skewness, indicating a higher likelihood of extreme negative returns compared to other indices[23][25] - Risk premiums, calculated relative to the 10-year government bond yield, are highest for the ChiNext Index (2.60%) and CSI 2000 (1.46%), with their 5-year percentile ranks at 93.41% and 85.79%, respectively. In contrast, SSE 50 (0.57%) and CSI 300 (0.80%) have lower risk premiums and percentile ranks[27][31] - The PE-TTM ratios for broad-based indices show that CSI 1000 (97.52%) and CSI 500 (95.54%) have the highest 5-year percentile ranks, while CSI 2000 (84.3%) and the ChiNext Index (57.69%) are relatively lower. The ChiNext Index's 5-year percentile rank is below its danger threshold of 80%[39][43][44] - Dividend yields are highest for SSE 50 (3.30%) and CSI 300 (2.71%), while CSI 500 (1.37%) and CSI 2000 (0.75%) are the lowest. The ChiNext Index's 5-year historical percentile rank for dividend yield is relatively high at 66.69%[48][53][55] - The percentage of stocks trading below their book value (PB ratio < 1) is highest for SSE 50 (22.0%) and lowest for the ChiNext Index (1.0%), reflecting varying market valuation attitudes across indices[57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of space computing as a significant opportunity, driven by the urgent need to overcome terrestrial computing limitations and the unique advantages of space data centers [5][6] - The report outlines a three-step strategy for the development of space data centers in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of technological breakthroughs and the establishment of a new industrial chain [5] - The global tech giants are increasingly investing in space computing, indicating a competitive landscape that presents potential investment opportunities [6] Performance Overview - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown strong performance with a relative return of 67.07% compared to the CSI 300 index, and an absolute return of 83.4% [2] - The industry has also demonstrated positive returns over shorter time frames, with a 10.88% relative return over the past month and a 9.42% return over the past three months [2] Strategic Developments - The report discusses the strategic importance of space data centers, which are expected to leverage the natural cooling of space and abundant solar energy to address the growing demand for computing power driven by artificial intelligence [5] - The first phase of the three-step strategy involves the development of a test satellite, "Chenguang-1," which is set to be launched by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [5] - The report emphasizes that the successful implementation of this strategy could lead to a significant transformation in the computing industry, with space data centers becoming a key component of the commercial space and AI sectors [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the investment in the Heilongjiang capital market, with a recommendation for "buy" or "hold" based on the performance of listed companies and the overall market sentiment [5][26]. Core Insights - The Daqing Petrochemical's production of ultra-fine acrylic fiber has filled a domestic industrial gap, with a total investment of 110 million yuan and a successful production capacity of 1,000 tons per year [5][11]. - The Manzhouli railway port has achieved a record cargo throughput of over 20 million tons, marking a 0.3% year-on-year increase, and has become a crucial international logistics hub [5][15]. - The Heilongjiang index has shown a rebound, with a 1.20% increase in December, reflecting improved market sentiment and a majority of listed companies reporting positive returns [5][21][26]. - The province's equipment manufacturing industry has maintained a robust growth rate of 16.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the national average [5][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Key News Tracking - Daqing Petrochemical's project has successfully commenced production, achieving a 100% quality compliance rate and utilizing advanced domestic spinning technology [5][11]. - The Manzhouli railway port's cargo throughput has surpassed 20 million tons, with significant growth in imports of fertilizers and paper pulp [5][15]. 2. Financial Market Data Tracking - The Heilongjiang index has increased by 1.20% in December, with most listed companies showing positive performance [5][21]. - The majority of listed companies in Heilongjiang reported positive returns, with notable increases from companies like Guolian Aviation and Aerospace Science and Technology [5][26]. 3. Domestic Macro Data - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 49.2%, indicating slight improvement but still below the critical threshold [5][28]. - The overall economic indicators for Heilongjiang show a steady upward trend, with significant investments in high-tech manufacturing [5][40]. 4. Heilongjiang Economic Operation Data - The province's equipment manufacturing value added has grown by 16.8% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growth at 5.9%, surpassing the national average [5][40]. - The government is committed to accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, which is expected to drive sustainable economic growth [5][41].

aa 证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 江海证券研究发展部 分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号： S1410524090001 联系人：朱威 相关研究报告 金融工程定期报告 执业证书编号： S1410124010022 1.可转债跟踪周报：转债较权益超额 回撤，但股性攀升—2025.12.01 2.可转债跟踪周报：转债债性激增防 御 性 突 显 ， 回 撤 小 于 权 益 — 2025.11.24 3.可转债跟踪周报：转债债性支撑上 涨，表现优于权益—2025.11.17 4.可转债跟踪周报：转债继续随权益 上涨，可维持均衡配置—2025.11.10 5.可转债跟踪周报：转债放量延续上 扬，涨幅超越权益—2025.11.03 转债随权益小幅回暖，但有所缩量 核心内容： | 1 | 可转债市场表现 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.1 市场行情 | 2 | | 2 | 可转债个券表现 | 5 | | | 2.1 个券行情 | 5 | | | 2.2 估值分析 | 7 | | 3 | 可转债条款跟踪 | 8 | | | 4 风险提示 | 9 | ◆可转债市场表现： ...

证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.12.08 ◆市场表现：2025 年 12 月 5 日, 各宽基指数（表 1）全部上涨，其中中证 2000（1.87%） 投资要点： 分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号：S1410524090001 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 和创业板指（1.36%）涨幅最大。当年涨跌情况，创业板指（45.19%）涨幅最大， 其次是中证 2000（32.03%）和中证 500（23.96%），中证 1000（23.24%）和中证全 指（21.6%）涨幅扩大，而上证 50（11.82%）涨幅最小。 ◆均线比较：所有跟踪指数已站上 5 日及 10 日均线。中证 1000 仍在 20 日均线之 下，其余跟踪指数已突破 20 日均线。上证 50、沪深 300、中证 2000 和创业板指相 继突破 60 日均线，市场逐渐修复。 相关研究报告 ◆资金占比与换手：2025 年 12 月 5 日, 中证 2000（25.69%）交易金额占比最高， 态 2025.12.05 A 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a regional leader to a national player in the hybrid corn seed market, driven by high-quality varieties and strategic expansion [3][5]. - The company has a strong research and development foundation, with its actual controllers holding over 51% of the shares, ensuring effective management and strategic direction [17][18]. Financial Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 288.24 million yuan in 2023 to 660.40 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6% from 2020 to 2024 [4][31]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 53.22 million yuan in 2023 to 155.94 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 20.3% [4][31]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain stable, with values around 17% to 19% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company specializes in hybrid corn seed production, research, and sales, with a focus on high yield, stability, and comprehensive resistance [11][12]. - The company has expanded its market presence from the Southwest region to nationwide, with significant growth in the Central China region, which has become its largest revenue source [5][23]. Industry Context - The domestic corn seed market is characterized by oversupply and severe homogenization, with a supply-demand ratio of 175% for the 2024/2025 season [50]. - The global seed market is expected to grow steadily, with China's market projected to reach 893 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 6.2% [37][39]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-quality corn seeds, as the average yield in China is only 60% of that in the United States [42].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company, Suzhou Shihua New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise, focusing on the research, production, and sales of functional materials [6][12]. - The company has maintained high growth in revenue and net profit, with a five-year CAGR of 26.96% for revenue and 27.84% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [6][24]. - The company has established deep cooperation with major clients like Apple and Samsung, which enhances its market position and stability [6][20]. - The company has recently completed a fundraising of 590 million yuan to expand its optical film materials project, which is expected to significantly contribute to future growth [6][24]. Financial Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 511.50 million yuan in 2023 to 1,923.41 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 10.64% in 2023 and 55.36% in 2024 [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 193.46 million yuan in 2023 to 669.06 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 4.36% in 2023 and 44.56% in 2024 [5]. - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 1.56 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22.61 [5]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2010 and has developed a range of functional materials used in various industries, including consumer electronics and medical electronics [12][20]. - The company operates three manufacturing plants and has over 400 employees, with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [12][20]. - The management team has extensive experience in the industry, contributing to the company's innovative capabilities and patent development [20][21]. Business Segments - The main business segments include functional electronic materials and high-performance optical materials, with the latter showing rapid revenue growth due to new project developments [29][39]. - The functional electronic materials segment has seen steady growth, while the high-performance optical materials segment is expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [29][39]. Market Trends - The global consumer electronics market is projected to grow from 788.23 billion USD in 2024 to 1,073.77 billion USD by 2032, driven by advancements in AI, IoT, and 5G technologies [53]. - The demand for high-end smartphones is increasing, with a notable shift towards premium devices, which is expected to benefit the company's functional materials [55][58].