Core Insights - The report innovatively combines the GARCH-EVT-VaR model with a defensive timing mechanism to construct a dynamic risk management framework, effectively capturing market tail features and volatility clustering while controlling downside risk and retaining upside elasticity, significantly enhancing portfolio performance [2][10][12] - The framework provides an important risk management tool for asset allocation in the current high-volatility environment, particularly during extreme market events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts [10][12] Model Characteristics - The GARCH model parameters for the four indices indicate significant volatility clustering, with the ChiNext index and CSI 300 showing greater resilience to volatility, while the CSI 500 exhibits a notable leverage effect [3][4][49] - Different indices have varying degrees of fit for the GARCH family models, with ChiNext and CSI 300 best suited for GARCH(1,1), CSI 500 for GARCH(1,1,1), and CSI 1000 for EGARCH(1,1,0) [3][4][49] Backtesting Results - The timing models for each index show positive excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.42% for ChiNext and 4.81% for CSI 1000, alongside reduced annualized volatility compared to benchmarks [4][71] - Each timing model has demonstrated a decrease in maximum drawdown, with ChiNext's maximum drawdown reduced from 49.4% to 36.8% and CSI 1000 from 42.0% to 30.0% [4][71] Strategy Advantages - The GARCH-EVT-VaR model provides more precise risk measurement, effectively capturing extreme tail risks, and demonstrates significant defensive effects, especially during extreme market events [4][10] - The strategy shows clear excess returns and higher Sharpe ratios compared to benchmarks, indicating improved risk-adjusted performance [4][71]

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for the technology finance sector, indicating a relative performance within -10% to 10% compared to the benchmark index [34]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing financial support for technology innovation, as outlined in the State Council's guidance on strengthening financial backing for achieving high-level technological self-reliance and building a strong technology nation [3]. - There is a notable trend of increasing financing activities in the technology sector, with significant records being set in various fields such as AI+AR glasses and Micro LED technology [12][13]. - The report highlights the performance of major indices in November 2025, noting a decline in A-share indices due to weak macroeconomic data and external market influences, while the communication and media sectors showed positive growth [19][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Financing News - Thunderbird Innovation completed a record financing round in the AI+AR glasses sector, marking the highest single financing amount in 2025 [8]. - JBD Shanghai completed over 1 billion RMB in B2 financing, setting a record in the Micro LED micro-display field [9]. - GAC High Domain's flying car project secured 200 million RMB in Pre-A financing, with total financing for the year reaching 500 million RMB [10]. - Dexmal, a company focused on embodied intelligence, announced several rounds of financing totaling nearly 10 billion RMB, indicating strong investor interest in advanced technology [11][12]. 2. Market Performance - In November 2025, major A-share indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai 50, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech 50 dropping by 1.39%, 4.23%, and 6.24% respectively [16]. - The technology growth sectors saw mixed results, with the communication and media industries recording positive growth, while other sectors such as machinery and pharmaceuticals faced declines [19]. 3. Loan Data - As of Q3 2025, the loan balance for technology SMEs reached 3.56 trillion RMB, reflecting a steady increase in financial support for this sector [21]. - The number of technology SMEs receiving loan support also rose, reaching 275,400 by Q3 2025 [24]. 4. IPO Activity - The report notes a stable number of IPOs in the domestic capital market, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange seeing a peak of 15 IPOs in June 2025 [28]. 5. Overseas Financing - Sakana AI, a Japanese AI startup, raised approximately 20 billion JPY in B-round financing, achieving a post-financing valuation of about 400 billion JPY [13]. - Flexion, a US robotics startup, completed a 50 million USD financing round, with plans to expand its operations [13].

证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 4 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.12.04 ◆市场表现：2025 年 12 月 3 日, 各宽基指数（表 1）全部下跌超过 0%，其中创业 投资要点： 分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号：S1410524090001 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 板指（-1.12%）和中证 2000（-1.03%）跌幅最大。当年涨跌情况，创业板指（41.8%） 涨幅最大，其次是中证 2000（30.59%）和中证 500（22.19%），中证 1000（21.66%） 和中证全指（20.21%）涨幅缩小，而上证 50（10.37%）涨幅最小。 ◆均线比较：所有跟踪指数已全数跌回 5 日均线以下。上证 50 和中证 1000 更跌破 10 日均线支撑位。所有跟踪指数已跌破 20 日及 60 日均线，距离近 250 日高位回 撤超过 3.5%。市场近期情绪悲观。 ◆资金占比与换手：2025 年 12 月 3 日, 中证 2000（26.74%）交易金额占比最高， 相关研究报告 态 2025.12.03 ...

金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.12.03 ◆市场表现：2025 年 12 月 2 日, 各宽基指数（表 1）全部下跌，其中中证 1000（-1.0%） 投资要点： 证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 3 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号：S1410524090001 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 和中证 500（-0.87%）跌幅最大。当年涨跌情况，创业板指（43.4%）涨幅最大， 其次是中证 2000（31.95%）和中证 500（22.96%），中证 1000（22.75%）和中证全 指（21.04%）涨幅缩小，而上证 50（10.94%）涨幅最小。 ◆均线比较：所有跟踪指数仍在 5 日及 10 日均线以上。中证 2000 和创业板指跌破 20 日均线，上证 50、沪深 300、中证全指和创业板指跌破 60 日均线。市场反复， 相关研究报告 不稳定因素仍存。 ◆资金占比与换手：2025 年 12 月 2 日, 中证 2000（26.34%）交易金额占比最高， 态 2025.12.02 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The sodium-ion battery industry is transitioning from "industrialization year" to "scale application year" in 2025, with significant growth expected in various applications such as energy storage, start-stop systems, two-wheeled vehicles, and mid-low range electric vehicles [5][37] - The average price of sodium battery cells in 2025 is projected to be 0.52 yuan/Wh, expected to drop to 0.25 yuan/Wh by 2030 [5][37] - The global sodium battery market is anticipated to reach a scale of 1,051 GWh by 2030, with substantial contributions from energy storage and automotive sectors [5][39][40] Summary by Sections 1. Sodium-Ion Battery Material Segments - Key materials for sodium-ion batteries include layered oxides, polyanions, and Prussian blue, with polyanions expected to dominate the market by 2030 [5][16][51] - The production process for sodium-ion batteries is similar to that of lithium-ion batteries, with specific adjustments in material handling and processing [5][33][34] 2. Market Application Potential - The energy storage sector shows immense potential for sodium batteries, particularly in large-scale storage systems due to their long cycle life and safety features [5][37] - In the automotive sector, sodium batteries are expected to dominate the A00/A0 class microcars and economical family cars, with a projected market size of 410 GWh by 2030 [5][40][41] 3. Material Shipment Forecasts - For 2025, the total shipment of sodium battery positive materials is expected to reach 15,000 tons, with polyanion materials surpassing layered oxides in shipment volume [5][51] - The shipment of sodium battery negative materials is projected to be 141.9 million tons by 2030, with hard carbon remaining the mainstream choice [5][54] - The sodium battery electrolyte market is expected to see a shipment of 157.7 million tons by 2030, with prices decreasing from 28,000 yuan/ton in 2025 to 15,000 yuan/ton by 2030 [5][58] 4. Key Company Developments - CATL launched its sodium battery products in 2025, achieving energy densities of 175 Wh/kg and over 10,000 cycles, marking a significant advancement in battery technology [5][61] - BYD reported a sodium battery cell capacity of 200 Ah and a cycle life exceeding 10,000 cycles, showcasing superior performance compared to existing lithium batteries [5][64] - Transart Technology is expanding its sodium battery production capacity, targeting applications in electric two-wheelers and other sectors [5][66] - Weike Technology is focusing on the development and production of sodium battery products, emphasizing their application in energy storage and start-stop systems [5][67]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 12 月 2 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410524040001 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.38 -1.07 11.96 绝对收益 -2.77 0.71 28.8 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-机械设备：6 月制造业 PMI 持续改善，看好政策+需求 回暖下制造业高质量发展提速 – 2025.07.07 2. 江海证券-行业研究报告-机械设备行 业：机械设备行业跟踪报告 （2025.04.16~2025.04.30） – 2025.05.06 3. 江海证券-行业研究报告-机械设备行 业：机械设备行业跟踪报告 （2025.04.01~2025.04.15） – 2025.04.18 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-机械设备行 业：加快建设农业强国，农业农村相关装 备有望获益 – 2025.04.08 5. 江海证券-行业研究报告-机械设备行 业：机械设备行业跟踪报告 2025.04.01 机械军工行业研究组 分析师：张诗瑶 11 月制造业 PMI 有所改善，关 ...

慢修复，紧贴均线上行。 证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 2 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.12.02 ◆市场表现：2025 年 12 月 1 日, 各宽基指数（表 1）全部上涨，其中创业板指（1.31%） 投资要点： 分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号：S1410524090001 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 和沪深 300（1.1%）涨幅最大。当年涨跌情况，创业板指（44.4%）涨幅最大，其 次是中证 2000（32.57%）和中证 500（24.03%），中证 1000（23.99%）和中证全指 （21.82%）涨幅扩大，而上证 50（11.51%）涨幅最小。另外，中证 1000 连续六日 连阳，中证 2000 连续三日连阳。 ◆均线比较：所有跟踪指数已站上 5 日及 10 日均线。中证 2000 和创业板指突破 20 日均线，上证 50、沪深 300、中证全指和创业板指突破 60 日均线。多个指数缓 相关研究报告 态 2025.12.01 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 态 2025.11.28 A 股 ...

- The report focuses on the performance of convertible bonds (CBs) in the market, highlighting that the CB indices (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and CSI) experienced weekly returns of -0.499%, -0.006%, and -0.272%, respectively, compared to the CSI All Share Index's return of 2.821% during the same period, resulting in an absolute return difference of -3.093% between CBs and equities[8] - The trading volume and value of CBs for the week were 173,609.71 million units and 30,791,369.11 million yuan, respectively, showing a week-on-week decrease of -3.81% and -6.23%, while the corresponding trading volume and value of underlying stocks decreased by -20.13% and -17.13%, respectively, indicating a decline in market activity for both CBs and their underlying equities[8] - As of November 28, 2025, the CB market had 402 outstanding bonds with an issuance scale of approximately 632.24 billion yuan and a remaining scale of 515.59 billion yuan. The median and arithmetic average of the conversion premium rates were 29.53% and 43.69%, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -12.17% and -9.63%, reflecting a significant drop in conversion premiums[13]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, and dividend yields[1][2][3] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Component Stocks} \times \text{Turnover Rate of Component Stocks})}{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Component Stocks})} $ This metric highlights the liquidity and trading activity of the indices, with the highest turnover rate observed for CSI 2000 (3.91) and the lowest for SSE 50 (0.22)[17] - The risk premium is calculated relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a measure of the relative investment value of the indices. For instance, the current risk premium for CSI 500 is 1.15%, with a 5-year historical percentile of 85.24%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels[27][31] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric. For example, the current PE-TTM for CSI 1000 is 46.97, with a 5-year historical percentile of 95.95%, suggesting a high valuation relative to its historical range[37][43] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return to investors. For instance, the current dividend yield for SSE 50 is 3.31%, with a 5-year historical percentile of 36.53%, indicating a moderate level compared to its historical distribution[48][53] - The report also examines the kurtosis and skewness of daily return distributions for the indices. For example, the CSI 2000 index has the smallest negative skewness (-0.37) and the highest kurtosis (1.38) among the indices, indicating a more concentrated return distribution with fewer extreme negative returns[23][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the PCB industry, particularly driven by AI infrastructure and automotive electronics [4][37]. - The partnership with MEIKO is anticipated to enhance the company's capabilities in product certification and quality management, particularly for its Thailand factory [4][25][26]. - The PCB industry is entering a new growth cycle, with significant expansion expected in high-end products like HDI boards and multilayer boards [4][46]. Company Overview - The company, founded in May 2008, specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of PCBs, with a focus on single-sided, double-sided, and multilayer boards [12][60]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, the actual controller of the company is a couple, holding 68.38% of the voting rights [4][23]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 55.64 billion, 67.08 billion, and 80.03 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 21.85%, 20.56%, and 19.30% [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.74 billion, 5.19 billion, and 7.23 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 5.90%, 38.74%, and 39.36% [4][6]. Industry Analysis - The global PCB market is projected to grow from 73.565 billion USD in 2024 to 94.661 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.2% [4][37]. - China has become the largest PCB producer globally, with a market share of 56.02% in 2024, expected to remain above 50% through 2029 [4][39]. - The demand for HDI boards is expected to see significant growth, driven by AI servers and high-speed networks [4][46]. Business Strategy - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and exploring new applications in AI servers and automotive electronics [4][60]. - The company has announced plans to raise funds through convertible bonds to invest in high-end PCB projects, with a total investment of 1.82 billion yuan [4][6].