执业证书编号：S1410525010001 联系人：黄燕芝 执业证书编号：S1410123120005 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.96 -1.25 -24.29 绝对收益 -7.29 -5.31 -6.33 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 2 月 6 日 江海证券研究发展部 特别声明 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料行 业：微信小店开启"送礼物"功能，茅台、 五粮液召开经销商大会 – 2024.12.27 2. 行业点评报告-食品饮料行业：5 月生鲜 乳价格延续下跌趋势，5 月啤酒产量同比 下降 4.5% – 2024.06.28 3. 行业点评报告-食品饮料行业：茅台、 古井贡酒股东大会表态积极，一季度规模 以上白酒企业利润同比+13.1% – 2024.06.05 消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 12 月规模以上企业啤酒产量同比增 长，燕京啤酒发布 2024 年业绩预告 事件： 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential benefits of integrating "Artificial Intelligence + Consumption" across various sectors, highlighting four key areas: AI smart glasses, AI education, cross-border e-commerce, and smart home technology [3][4] - The report notes that the Ministry of Commerce plans to implement effective policies to boost consumption, including upgrading product consumption, expanding service consumption, fostering new consumption types, and innovating consumption scenarios [4] Performance Overview - Over the past twelve months, the industry has shown a relative return of -3.5% over one month, 16.14% over three months, and -5.33% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [2] - Absolute returns were -7.38% over one month, 13.01% over three months, and 9.64% over twelve months [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent implementation of the "Management Measures" aims to promote the healthy and sustainable development of distributed photovoltaic power generation [4] - As of the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation reached 370 million kilowatts, which is 121 times that of the end of 2013, accounting for 42% of total photovoltaic installed capacity and 11% of the national power generation capacity [4] - In 2024, the newly installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation reached 120 million kilowatts, accounting for 43% of the newly installed photovoltaic capacity that year [4] - The price of photovoltaic modules has dropped from around 5 yuan per watt in 2013 to approximately 0.7 yuan per watt currently, indicating that the renewable energy sector, including distributed photovoltaic power, has entered a market-oriented development phase without subsidies [4] - The emergence of negative electricity prices in Zhejiang reflects the challenges of power consumption and pricing faced by photovoltaic projects, highlighting the need for better integration with energy storage technologies to enhance the flexibility and regulation capabilities of the power system [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has experienced a relative return of -42.38% compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -24.69% [3] Recent Developments - The "Management Measures" redefine distributed photovoltaic power generation in terms of definition, classification, and grid connection methods, emphasizing user-side development and the need for improved grid integration capabilities [4] - The report highlights the urgent need to adjust management strategies to address the main challenges posed by the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic power generation, particularly in terms of grid connection and consumption [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends prioritizing investments in energy storage inverters, with specific companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, Jinlang Technology, GoodWe, and Airo Energy suggested for attention [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][9] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the year 2024, with estimates ranging from 145 to 155 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 172.04% to 190.80% [4] - The growth is primarily driven by the expanding application scenarios for lithium primary batteries and the increasing market scale, alongside a reduction in raw material costs and an increase in production and sales volume [4][7] - The company has established a strategic cooperation agreement with Saiterwell for lithium battery products used in security and fire protection, indicating a broadening customer base and application fields [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 546.14 million yuan, with a growth rate of 57.67% compared to 2023 [6] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 147.58 million yuan, with a growth rate of 176.88% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 1.46 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.71 for 2024, 13.46 for 2025, and 11.10 for 2026 [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong relative performance, with a 12-month relative return of 104.90% and an absolute return of 115.99% [2][6] - The current stock price is 24.74 yuan, with a 12-month high of 32.30 yuan and a low of 9.32 yuan [4] Production Capacity - The company is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with existing production capacity unable to meet downstream demand [7] - A new high-performance lithium battery production project is expected to increase capacity to 180 million units, with completion anticipated in the second half of 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - In 2024, China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leadership for the 15th consecutive year, with completion volume, new orders, and hand-held orders accounting for 55.7%, 74.1%, and 63.1% of the global market share respectively, showing steady growth [6] - The new orders and hand-held orders in 2024 reached historical highs, with completion volume at 48.18 million deadweight tons (DWT), up 13.8% year-on-year, new orders at 113.05 million DWT, up 58.8%, and hand-held orders at 208.72 million DWT, up 49.7% [9] - The global new ship market remains robust, with an increasing aging issue for dry bulk and oil tanker fleets, leading to heightened pressure for fleet renewal [9] - In 2024, orders for alternative fuel vessels reached record levels, with a total of 65.325 million DWT, up 68.0% year-on-year, indicating a strong trend towards green ship transformation [9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of -4.58% over one month, -9.98% over three months, and -8.73% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Market Dynamics - The shipbuilding market is expected to maintain high prosperity, with the delivery volume of new ships anticipated to increase further in 2025 [9] - The aging of the global fleet, particularly in dry bulk and oil tankers, is projected to accelerate, necessitating a shift in strategies for leasing older vessels [9] Future Outlook - The demand for green ships is expected to rise due to ongoing environmental policies, with China positioned to leverage its technological and production advantages in the shipbuilding sector [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The pet food companies Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co. have released their 2024 earnings forecasts, with Zhongchong expected to achieve a net profit of 360-400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.40%-71.55% [6] - Petty Co. anticipates a net profit of 181-205 million yuan for 2024, recovering from a loss of 11.09 million yuan in the previous year [6] - The total export volume of pet food in China reached 33.52 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.01%, with an export value of 1.48 billion USD, up 20.72% [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The relative returns over the past month, three months, and twelve months are -4.14%, -1.78%, and -24.85% respectively, while absolute returns are -6.57%, -4.39%, and -7.64% [3] Company Performance - Zhongchong Co. aims for a domestic growth target of 30% and an overseas target of 8% for 2024, with a net profit target growth of 28.64% compared to 2023 [6] - Petty Co. is focusing on expanding its main food products and has seen significant growth in its self-owned brand revenue [6] Market Trends - Domestic pet food brands are gradually dominating the market, with local brands consistently ranking in the top five on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [6] - The report highlights the importance of overseas factory establishment and expansion for Chinese pet food companies in response to potential tariff increases [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The implementation of the photovoltaic leader plan in Shaanxi Province is expected to drive record domestic photovoltaic installations in 2024, with a target of approximately 2 million kilowatts [3] - The report highlights that the photovoltaic industry is stabilizing at the bottom due to reduced silicon material production and the listing of polysilicon futures [7] - The report anticipates that China's cumulative photovoltaic installations will exceed 1,050 GW by 2025, with significant growth in renewable energy consumption projected for 2030 [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has experienced a relative return of -40.35% compared to the CSI 300 index [6] - Absolute returns for the same period are -23.14% [6] Key Investment Points - The photovoltaic leader plan emphasizes high conversion efficiency for components, benefiting leading companies such as Aiko, Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar, with efficiencies reported between 24.2% and 24.8% [7] - In 2024, China's photovoltaic installations are expected to reach approximately 277 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 28.92% in December alone [7] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies across various segments, including Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, GCL-Poly Energy, Aiko, Longi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold (First Coverage)" [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and intermediates, aiming to become a leading domestic and globally recognized manufacturer in this field. It has a clear strategy to diversify into innovative and generic drugs while maintaining a strong position in the API market [4][25][39] - The company has a stable customer base, with the top five customers accounting for 27.27% of sales in 2023, indicating strong customer relationships and stable sales channels [40][44] - The company has faced financial pressures in recent years, with a decline in revenue and net profit, but the decline in net profit has narrowed as of Q3 2024, showing signs of stabilization [7][43] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiangsu Senxuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was established in 2003 and is one of the first companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The company has a clear ownership structure with state-owned assets controlling 72.31% of shares, providing strategic guidance and support for sustainable development [11][22] - The company has received various recognitions, including "Specialized, Refined, Characteristic, and Innovative" and "High-tech Enterprise" certifications, which enhance its market competitiveness [17] Financial Forecast - The company's total revenue is projected to be 533.55 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -9.50%, followed by 622.44 million yuan in 2025 and 718.17 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 16.66% and 15.38% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 123.23 million yuan in 2024, with a decline of 8.39%, followed by 135.39 million yuan in 2025 and 159.25 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 9.87% and 17.62% respectively [5] Industry Development - The global pharmaceutical industry is experiencing continuous growth, driven by population growth and aging trends, which presents opportunities for companies in this sector [2][16] - The company is positioned to benefit from the expiration of patents for original drugs and the acceleration of domestic approvals, allowing it to deepen its product development and optimize its product structure [29][30] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.53 for 2024, 29.61 for 2025, and 25.17 for 2026, indicating a favorable outlook for future earnings growth [5][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The skincare market in China is projected to reach CNY 421.87 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.54% [8] - The overall cosmetics market size is expected to be CNY 774.65 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.83% [8] - Online cosmetics market size is estimated at CNY 405.53 billion, showing a slight growth of 0.4% year-on-year [8] - Domestic cosmetic brands have shown resilience, with sales increasing by 7.46% year-on-year, while imported brands face declining sales [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has experienced a relative return of -29.42% compared to the CSI 300 index [3] - Absolute returns for the same period are reported at -12.29% [3] Market Dynamics - The online market share for Taobao is 41.1%, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, while Douyin's market share is 37.8%, showing a growth of 13.9% [8] - JD.com holds an 11.6% market share, with a significant increase of 36.7% year-on-year [8] - Offline sales have decreased to CNY 369.12 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year [8] Product Developments - Jinbo Bio announced that three of its ProtYouth products received FDA certification, highlighting advancements in product formulation and efficacy [8] - The ProtYouth collagen products are noted for their high activity, concentration, and penetration capabilities [8] Future Outlook - The beauty industry is expected to face intensified competition in 2025, leading to further consolidation and the elimination of companies lacking technological strength and core competitiveness [8] - Recommended companies to watch include domestic skincare leader Proya, along with Aimeike, Huaxi Biological, Marubi, Betaine, and Furuida [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [5] - Current price is 5.59 CNY with a target price of 7.58 CNY over a 12-month period [5] Core Insights - The company is a core enterprise under the China Information and Communication Technology Group, focusing on autonomous innovation in the telecommunications sector [5][8] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue increasing from 5.15 billion CNY in 2018 to 7.848 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 8.79% [18] - The company aims to build a 5G ecosystem and support digital transformation through its comprehensive mobile network deployment solutions [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 76.25 billion CNY, 81.62 billion CNY, and 89.04 billion CNY respectively [5] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders has improved from a loss of 673.97 million CNY in 2022 to a loss of 357.31 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year reduction in loss of 46.97% [20] - The company’s gross margin has remained stable, with a gross margin of 21.34% in 2023 [21] Business Overview - The company specializes in mobile communication technology services and network equipment, including system equipment, feeder equipment, and industry-specific network equipment [25] - The company has a strong market presence in the satellite internet sector and is actively involved in the standardization of 5G satellite communication [5][8] - The management team has extensive industry experience, with key executives having backgrounds in leading telecommunications firms [15][17] Market Position - The company has a solid shareholder structure, with the largest shareholder holding 41.01% of the shares, ensuring stability and strong backing [14] - The company has been recognized as a key contributor to the development and standardization of 5G technology [5][8] - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, as evidenced by the rising accounts receivable turnover ratio from 1.23 in 2020 to 1.55 in 2023 [27]