低估值反攻 ——2025 年 3 月量化行业配置月报 核心观点 主线切换，低估值反攻有望开启，看好小市值与顺周期的交集方向，建议关注基础化 工、汽车、新能源等方向的配置机会。 风格维度，我们基于龙虎榜数据构建的大资金活跃度指标目前仍处上行趋势，这 意味着小盘风格或仍将相对占优。在市场成交活跃的背景下，若前期主线陷入调 整，市场的自发选择或是寻找其他低位补涨方向，而非选择红利进行防御。目前 来看，两会公布的政策力度基本符合市场预期，未来进一步的上行催化或来自基 本面的企稳修复。从高频数据来看，地产成交热度回升是当前较为显著的边际变 化，北上深的二手房成交量节后已基本修复至去年"924"政策后的高水平，"金 三"逐步成型，顺周期方向或逐步迎来基本面的顺风期。综合来看，或可关注顺 周期板块中整体市值偏小的细分行业，建议关注基础化工、汽车、新能源等方向 的配置机会。 ❑ 机械设备、通信、计算机、电子四行业触发拥挤信号。 截至 3 月 5 日，机械设备、通信、计算机、电子四行业的拥挤度较高，位于滚动 3 年的 95%分位预警阈值以上，或需警惕股价潜在的波动风险。 ❑ 综合策略最近一个月收益 4.6%，相对行业等权指数及 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - February CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, and below market expectations of -0.4%[1] - February PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -2.2%, slightly lower than the previous -2.3% and market expectations of -2.1%[1] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, February CPI year-on-year growth remained positive at 0.1%[3] Group 2: Price Movements - Food prices in February decreased by 3.3%, contributing approximately 0.60 percentage points to the CPI decline[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with gasoline prices rising by 1.3%[5] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) year-on-year decreased by 0.1% in February, indicating some upward support from certain service prices[7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The government aims for a CPI increase of around 2% for the year, reflecting a direction rather than a strict control measure[8] - The current inflation level is seen as in the early stages of bottoming out and recovering, with potential for further monetary easing throughout the year[1] - The overall economic environment suggests a gradual recovery in consumer demand, supported by counter-cyclical policies[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the overseas and domestic markets for the engineering machinery industry are experiencing upward resonance, positioning SANY Heavy Industry as one of the companies with the greatest earnings elasticity due to its significant share in the excavator market [1][2] - Despite market concerns regarding insufficient real estate demand and infrastructure funding, the report anticipates a recovery in the engineering machinery industry, with SANY benefiting from its high revenue share from excavators [2][5] - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is seen as a move to enhance its global strategy and improve governance transparency [2][3] Company Summary - SANY Heavy Industry's excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024, making it the second highest among domestic manufacturers [2] - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 49 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year increase [5][10] - The international revenue for SANY reached 235 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, marking a 4.8% increase and accounting for 62% of total revenue [10] Industry Summary - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 53% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in February 2025 [3] - Domestic sales of excavators reached 11,640 units in February 2025, a 99% increase year-on-year, indicating a warming market [3] - The report suggests that the anticipated end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to increased overseas demand for engineering machinery, benefiting leading companies like SANY [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaxia Precision, is a leader in small modulus gears and is expected to expand into the humanoid robot sector, which presents significant growth opportunities [2][9]. - The report highlights the company's core advantages, including product synergy, technological capabilities, and strong customer resources, particularly in the automotive sector [2][15]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Xiaxia Precision is a leading domestic small modulus gear manufacturer, with automotive gears accounting for 60% of its revenue in 2023, and a gross margin of approximately 29% [12][29]. - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue and 24% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [17]. Humanoid Robot Market Potential - The report identifies screws and reducers as core components for humanoid robots, with a significant market potential as the industry matures [9][34]. - The market for planetary roller screws is projected to reach approximately 668 billion yuan if annual production of humanoid robots reaches 500,000 units [43]. Gear Business - The global gear market was valued at 1.3 trillion yuan in 2023, with expectations for the automotive and electric tool gear markets to reach 112.8 billion yuan and 35.3 billion yuan, respectively, by 2025 [3]. - The company has established a strong customer base and has formed advantages in technology, production, and quality control, positioning itself as a leader in the small modulus precision cylindrical gear market [3][19]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 685 million yuan in 2024, with a projected net profit of 68 million yuan, reflecting a 5% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 1.1 yuan, 1.4 yuan, and 1.5 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 90, 71, and 64 [4][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the public utility sector [3]. Core Views - The nuclear technology application industry is entering a strategic opportunity period for comprehensive layout and accelerated development over the next 5 to 10 years, as highlighted during the National Two Sessions [3][63]. - The public utility sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the public utility index down 0.5% and the environmental protection index up 2.29% this week [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green electricity operations and the potential for price declines in the energy market due to the entry of new energy sources [2][67]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The public utility sector index decreased by 0.5%, ranking 28th among 31 industries, while the environmental protection sector index increased by 2.29%, ranking 12th among 32 industries [1][8]. - As of March 7, 2025, the public utility sector's PE (TTM) is 16.46 times, and PB (LF) is 1.45 times; the environmental protection sector's PE (TTM) is 21.06 times, and PB (LF) is 1.44 times [1][21]. Key Industry Dynamics - The National Forestry and Grassland Administration supports the rational use of forest and grassland for wind power projects, encouraging development in desert and degraded areas while protecting sensitive ecological zones [3][65]. - The report identifies key stocks in the public utility sector, including China Nuclear Power, Fuan Energy, and Dongfang Electronics, focusing on green electricity operations and coal power [2][67]. Investment Recommendations - In the green electricity sector, the report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from new energy projects, particularly those in offshore wind energy [2][67]. - For the coal power sector, it recommends monitoring major state-owned enterprises like Guodian Power and Datang Power, as coal prices are expected to stabilize [2][67]. - The gas sector is highlighted for its potential cost optimization due to global energy price declines, with companies like Fuan Energy and Shenzhen Gas being of interest [3][68]. - The water and nuclear sectors are also recommended for their stable cash flow and recovery in project approvals, with companies like China Nuclear Power and Huaneng Water Power being key players [3][68].

证券研究报告 金属行业有色价格日报 ——2025年3月6日 行业评级：看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 沈家悦 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 shenjiayue@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 日度金属价格变化 | | 最新金属价格 | | | 日度涨跌幅 | 今年至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 | 5 . | 0 . | 00% 0 29% - . | | 氢氧化锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 | 0 . | 0 - | 10% 0 50% . . | | 铜 | 万元/吨 | 7 | 8 . | 1 . | 30% 5 84% . | | 黄金 | 元/克 | 680 | 2 . | 0 - | 05% 10 06% . . | | 电解镍 | 万元/吨 | 12 | 9 . | 0 . | 39% 2 47% . | | 铝 | 万元/吨 | 2 | 1 . | 1 . | 41% 5 26% . | | 铅 | 万元/吨 | 1 | 7 . | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The government work report released on March 5 indicates a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to maintain ample liquidity and promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets. This positive signal supports the outlook for the brokerage sector, particularly in the context of a rebound, mergers and acquisitions, and high earnings growth [1] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy catalysts, with long-term investment reforms in insurance funds being actively promoted. The recent approval of an additional 60 billion yuan for investment is anticipated to further solidify the foundation for healthy development in the equity market, leading to a sustained upward trend in the insurance investment sector [2] - In the cryptocurrency market, recent political statements from former President Trump are expected to stabilize market expectations, although short-term volatility is anticipated. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the U.S. government is seen as a long-term positive for Bitcoin's value [3] Summary by Sections Brokerage - The report recommends specific brokerage firms: China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, while suggesting to pay attention to Dongxing Securities, Western Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Huaxi Securities [4] Insurance - Recommended insurance companies include Xinhua Insurance, China Life, and China Property Insurance [4] Multi-Financial and Fintech - The report suggests investing in Zhinanzhen and Dongfang Caifu, with a focus on Top Point Software and Wealth Trend [4] Overseas Financial - Recommended overseas financial firms include Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Tiger Brokers, with attention to Lianlian Digital and OSL Group [4] Market Performance - The report notes that from March 3 to March 7, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.56% and 2.19%, respectively, while the multi-financial index increased by 3.68% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the food and beverage industry [3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see opportunities, particularly in the liquor segment, as the market transitions from low to high demand. The second quarter is anticipated to enter a low base period, making it a favorable time for investment [1][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of strong brand power, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets for leading liquor companies. It also highlights the potential for investment opportunities arising from retail transformations in 2025 [1][10] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and high certainty in Q1 performance. The government report emphasizes boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, which may catalyze a structural bull market for liquor [1][10] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, and mid-range brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Jiuzi [10] Consumer Goods Sector - The investment focus for 2025 in the consumer goods sector is on two main lines: the prosperity line and the recovery line. The report suggests that sectors like snacks and beverages are expected to perform better than dairy and health products [2][21] - The restaurant supply chain is highlighted as a key area for policy support, with expectations for demand recovery and valuation improvements. Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili [2][21] Market Performance - From February 28 to March 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.39%, with the liquor sector showing a 1.51% increase. Notable performers included Gujing Gongjiu (+4.97%) and Luzhou Laojiao (+3.91%) [5][25] - The report notes that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a valuation adjustment, with the industry trading at 20.40 times earnings as of March 7, 2025 [30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5][7] Core Views - The company is benefiting from high demand in the diesel generator business driven by AI computing infrastructure, while also expanding into the outdoor power equipment sector with smart lawn mowers, creating a second growth curve [5][10] - The company has a strong supply chain and order locking capabilities, which are crucial as foreign brands face production constraints, opening a window for domestic alternatives [2][3] - The company is backed by a state-owned enterprise, ensuring stable profits and high dividends, highlighting its defensive characteristics [4] Summary by Sections Diesel Generator Business - The company expects revenue of 575 million yuan in H1 2024 for its diesel generator business, with a growth of 15.1% and a gross margin of 13.8% [2] - The industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to price increases for foreign engines, which may enhance the company's gross margin per unit [2] Outdoor Power Equipment (OPE) - The global smart lawn mower market is projected to reach 44.07 billion USD by 2027, with a current penetration rate of only 4% [3] - The company launched its first boundary-less smart lawn mower in 2021, which has been adopted in notable projects [3] - In H1 2024, the OPE business is expected to generate 1.83 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 20.5%, and new orders are projected to grow by 25% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 10.1% increase, with a five-year CAGR of 20% [4] - The dividend payout ratio has consistently exceeded 40% from 2020 to 2023, with a stable dividend yield above 4% [4] - The company anticipates net profits of 1.13 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The smart AR glasses market is expected to evolve significantly, driven by products like Ray-Ban Meta, potentially leading to a breakthrough year in 2025 [5] - The optical waveguide display function remains a key technical focus, with silicon carbide (SiC) anticipated to play a crucial role in optimizing optical pathways [5] - The adoption of high-refractive-index materials, particularly silicon carbide, is essential for achieving total internal reflection in optical waveguide designs [3][4] Summary by Sections Optical Waveguide Display Solutions - The main optical display solutions currently rely on waveguide technology, which can be categorized into reflection and diffraction routes [2] - Reflection waveguides utilize micro-mirror arrays on lens surfaces to achieve imaging through total internal reflection, while diffraction waveguides adjust light paths via etched or nano-imprinted gratings [2] Silicon Carbide as a Key Material - Silicon carbide, with a refractive index of 2.7, significantly reduces the critical angle for total internal reflection compared to traditional glass, which has a refractive index of about 1.8 [3] - The use of silicon carbide allows for thinner lenses and minimizes light interference effects, making it a strong candidate for future smart glasses [3] Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The current production capacity for consumer-grade silicon carbide is limited, presenting a high barrier to entry, which could benefit companies with core technological capabilities [4] - Tianyue Advanced, a leading domestic silicon carbide substrate company, is highlighted as a key player in this emerging market [4]