证券研究报告 | 行业深度 | 计算机 AI+医疗:大模型重塑医疗生态 ——行业深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 大模型的推理能力和多模态能力持续升级、应用成本不断下降，驱动医疗机构加 速融合 AI 技术。根据 DataBridge 的测算，预计至 2031 年全球生成式 AI 在医疗 保健领域市场规模将达到 172 亿美元，2023-2031 年期间复合增长率为 32.60%。 ❑ 技术驱动 AI 医疗发展，当前进入多模态融合阶段 技术落地不及预期、商业化进展不及预期、数据安全风险 AI 在医疗领域的应用历经了从规则驱动到数据驱动、从单一任务优化到多模态 协同的演变，当前进入到多模态融合阶段。大模型的多模态能力解决了早期 AI 医疗存在的信息割裂和数据孤岛等问题，大模型通过"预训练+微调"架构，用 统一参数体系处理多模态医疗数据。在临床应用中，借助多模态技术，AI 可以 实现跨模态数据的理解和动态时序建模，使得 AI 诊疗与医生的诊疗水平更加接 近。 ❑ DeepSeek 具有低成本和开源特征，加速在医疗行业渗透 DeepSeek 作为国产开源大模型的代表，具备高性能、低成本和开源的特征，契 合医疗机构对高效和安全的 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 机械设备 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 11 日 智元发布灵犀 X2 及通用具身基座大模型，重视智元链投资机会 ——人形机器人点评报告 投资要点 1）运动智能：视频中 X2 展现了使用滑板车、平衡车、自行车等运动能力，通过 数据驱动的算法范式，智能体能从每秒数万次的环境交互和动作数据中，找到突 破运动瓶颈的方法。2）交互智能：灵犀 X2 是第一台具备复杂交互能力的"灵动 机器人"，使用了基于 Diffusion 的生成式动作引擎和基于 VLM 的 "硅光动语" 多模态交互大模型，通过边缘侧大脑、端到端的模型架构及大量工程优化，拥有 毫秒级的交互反应，视听说功能完备；并集成了动作模态，拥有呼吸韵律、好奇 心、肢体语言及其他拟人动作。未来有望进一步将 Reaction-Agent 作为情感计算 引擎，赋予机器人更多情绪表达的能力。3）作业智能：X2 本体支持柔性阻抗控 制，可装配灵巧手等末端，完成穿针引线等精细作业。 ❑ 3 月 10 日，智元机器人发布首个通用具身基座大模型 GO-1，标志着具身智能向 通用化、开放化、智能化方向快速迈进。 1）强大的泛化能力：基于大 ...

大小盘风格择时：活跃资金视角 ——风格择时系列一 核心观点 本文基于龙虎榜数据刻画了非机构大资金的活跃程度，基于此构建的大小盘风格择时 策略年化超额 11.1%，信息比率 1.14，月度胜率 63.7%。 ❑ 非机构大资金活跃度对大小盘风格择时具备参考意义。 对于龙虎榜中的上榜席位，我们可主要划分为机构、非机构大资金（后续简称为 活跃大资金）、个人投资者几大类。逻辑上，机构对大小盘风格并没有明确的偏好， 而个人投资者的资金流向可能缺乏指导意义。相较而言，活跃大资金可能才是大 小盘风格的引领者。不同于在流动性较差的小微盘股上"控盘"，活跃大资金往往 偏爱热门主题下具有一定流动性的个股，主要通过引领市场情绪来获取收益。可 以说，活跃大资金就是股市羊群的"头羊"，是市场情绪的风向标。因此，若能尽 可能准确地捕捉到其动向，对大小盘风格判断理应有所帮助。 ❑ 抽丝剥茧：量化识别活跃大资金所在营业部。 除了成交活跃、高频上榜外，活跃大资金还应具有什么特征？我们认为：第一， 其参与标的的市值应为中等规模，过大则无法显著影响股价走势，过小则无法提 供足够资金容量；第二，大资金操盘时，往往不会仅使用一个席位，且可能联合 多路资 ...

证券研究报告 • 全球钴储量分布高度集中，刚果（金）钴储量为600万吨，占比超一半达55%，澳大利亚和印尼分别占比达15%、6%。 • 2024年世界钴产量为29万金属吨，同比增长21.8%，其中，第一大国刚果（金）2024年产钴22万吨，同比增长25.7%。 刚果金禁止钴出口，钴价中枢或将长期上移 行业评级：看好 2025年3月10日 分析师 沈皓俊 分析师 王南清 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 证书编号 S1230523100001 核心观点 2 添加标题 • 2023年钴下游需求主要用在EV和消费电子，分别占比45%和26%。 95% • 受刚果金政策刺激，价格触底反弹，截止2025年3月10日，电解钴价格收于18.5万元/吨，期货电子盘收于24万元/吨。 • 刚果金禁止钴产品出口，过剩或将大幅缓解。 • 涨价对于下游成本影响有限，钴价中枢或将上移。 • 推荐华友钴业，力勤资源，洛阳钼业，建议关注腾远钴业和寒锐钴业。 • 风险提示 1、刚果金禁矿出口力度不及预期，若后续政策执行不到 ...

证券研究报告 Cost Down：大厂财报续写AI提质增效 Revenue Up：新势力崛起突显投资机遇 ——人工智能行业深度报告 2025年3月9日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 刘雯蜀 | 分析师 | 陶韫琦 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | taoyunqi@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523020002 | 证书编号 | S1230524090010 | 摘要 1、 美股AI应用厂商24Q4财报季落下帷幕，AI商业化进程下云及AI应用业务贡献度持续提升 2、 对标AI独角兽业务成长，关注多模态AI及云服务赛道投资机遇 3、 AI应用赛道，新势力厂商加速崛起，重点关注AI+企业服务赛道投资机遇 • 2024年AI应用赛道已有超10家企业营收达到1亿美元，赛道覆盖了AI大模型、客户支持、数据分析、营销等多个赛道，其中半数为企业用户生产 力工具，我们认为随着AI大模型的加速迭代以及Agent技术的日趋成熟，AI有望率先在企业服务场景下加速落地，并赋能相关厂商打开成长空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Smart Home is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a 2024 revenue of 18.361 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.019 billion yuan, up 29.58% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.415 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.06% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 194 million yuan, increasing by 29.67% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.03%, slightly down by 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, while the fourth quarter gross margin was 21.99%, down 3.21 percentage points year-on-year [8] Revenue Breakdown - By product: In 2024, revenue from refrigerators and freezers was 15.513 billion yuan, up 19.45% year-on-year; washing machines generated 2.701 billion yuan, up 33.19% year-on-year [2] - By company: In 2024, Oma Electric's revenue was 13.410 billion yuan, up 22.65% year-on-year; TCL Hefei's revenue was 5.044 billion yuan, up 15.53% year-on-year [2] - By region: Domestic revenue was 4.865 billion yuan, down 1.55% year-on-year; overseas revenue was 13.495 billion yuan, up 31.82% year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.404 billion yuan, 22.344 billion yuan, and 24.108 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 11.13%, 9.50%, and 7.90% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.147 billion yuan, 1.273 billion yuan, and 1.390 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.56%, 10.96%, and 9.19% respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.06 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.28 yuan [3] Financial Summary - The company maintained a stable gross margin while improving operational efficiency, leading to enhanced profitability [8] - The financial metrics indicate a net profit margin of 4.40% in Q4, up 0.50 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced expenses and increased exchange gains [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 煤炭开采 煤价利空钝化，左侧布局正当时 ——煤炭行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 本周行情回顾（2025.3.3-2025.3.7） 截至 3 月 7 日，本周深证成指申万煤炭板块周涨幅 0.4%，煤炭指数跑输沪深 300 指数 1 个百分点。个股方面，本周煤炭板块 12 家上涨，5 家持平，19 家下跌。 本周煤价略有回升，同时值得注意的是煤炭龙头加速反弹（中国神华周涨幅 1.24%），煤价回弹幅度不大，但龙头却有较大回升，说明市场对于煤炭价格下跌 触底已经有了充分认识，利空尽出，是左侧布局的重要时间。当前，我们认为本 轮煤价下跌已经接近尾声，预计后续将震荡回升。 本周价格小幅下跌，供给端库存下降，需求端电厂日耗上升。动力煤港口和产 地价格均下跌，国际动力煤价格保持平稳，秦港、长江口库以及广州港动力煤库 存均下降，海运费连续三周上涨，环渤海港锚地船舶数量随之上升。各电厂煤炭 日消耗量周环比相对持平，样本区域电厂和重点电厂煤炭日耗量小幅上升，而水 利发电量未有明显上升。我们认为主要是进口煤价格倒挂，进口政策管控支撑了 内贸煤的需求，此外工业复工复产带动日耗回升，但由于对于煤价持续下跌的预 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its previous profit forecasts for 2024, with projected revenue of HK$13.074 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$854 million (up 42.6%) [1] - The report highlights strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the tobacco export sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [6] Revenue and Profit Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of HK$13.074 billion and a net profit of HK$854 million, with a gross margin of 10.54% [1] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and profit growth of 48% [1] Tobacco Leaf Import and Export - Tobacco leaf import revenue is projected at HK$8.254 billion (up 2.2%), with a decrease in quantity to 112,000 tons (down 4.5%), but an increase in average selling price (ASP) leading to a gross margin of 10% [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach HK$2.062 billion (up 24.8%), with an increase in quantity to 83,500 tons (up 18.4%) and a gross margin of 4.07% [2] Cigarette Export Performance - Cigarette export revenue is projected at HK$1.574 billion (up 30.2%), with a quantity of 3.34 billion sticks (up 19.1%) and a gross margin of 17.63% [3] - The growth is attributed to expanded operational regions and an increase in self-operated business [3] Brazil Operations and New Tobacco Products - Revenue from CBT (Cigarette Blending Technology) leaf exports is expected to be HK$1.05 billion (up 37%), despite a decrease in quantity to 31,600 tons (down 2.4%), with a gross margin of 17.51% [4] - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected at HK$135 million (up 4.0%), with a quantity of 762 million sticks (up 12.5%) and a gross margin of 5.2% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strategy of capital market operations and international business expansion, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding operational regions for cigarettes, CBT, and new tobacco products [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of HK$14.416 billion, HK$15.753 billion, and HK$17.238 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK$958 million, HK$1.095 billion, and HK$1.236 billion [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.95X, 15.69X, and 13.91X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [2]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in the high-quality, affordable beverage sector, with a robust expansion strategy driving growth. Revenue increased from 10.35 billion yuan in 2021 to 20.30 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 40% [1][15]. - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages in China is over 510 billion yuan, with significant growth potential, especially in lower-tier cities. The industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth rates [1][41]. - The company has established a strong supply chain and brand presence, enabling it to thrive in competitive markets. Its marketing strategies, including the "Snow King" IP, have significantly enhanced brand visibility [1][10]. Company Overview - The company focuses on providing high-quality, affordable beverages, with an average price of around 6 yuan (approximately 1 USD) [10]. - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates over 45,000 stores across 31 provinces in China and has expanded into Southeast Asia, with significant store counts in Vietnam and Indonesia [10][12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain, including a central factory and a dedicated logistics system, which enhances operational efficiency [10][11]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing strong growth, with the global market size expected to increase from 598.9 billion USD in 2018 to 779.1 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 5.4% [41]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with per capita consumption expected to rise from approximately 11 cups in 2023 to 26 cups by 2028 [41]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ready-to-drink beverage sector, particularly in the affordable segment, which is gaining traction in lower-tier cities [1][41]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 25.7 billion yuan, 30.3 billion yuan, and 34.1 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.4 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan [2][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 28x, 25x, and 23x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2].

低估值反攻 ——2025 年 3 月量化行业配置月报 核心观点 主线切换，低估值反攻有望开启，看好小市值与顺周期的交集方向，建议关注基础化 工、汽车、新能源等方向的配置机会。 风格维度，我们基于龙虎榜数据构建的大资金活跃度指标目前仍处上行趋势，这 意味着小盘风格或仍将相对占优。在市场成交活跃的背景下，若前期主线陷入调 整，市场的自发选择或是寻找其他低位补涨方向，而非选择红利进行防御。目前 来看，两会公布的政策力度基本符合市场预期，未来进一步的上行催化或来自基 本面的企稳修复。从高频数据来看，地产成交热度回升是当前较为显著的边际变 化，北上深的二手房成交量节后已基本修复至去年"924"政策后的高水平，"金 三"逐步成型，顺周期方向或逐步迎来基本面的顺风期。综合来看，或可关注顺 周期板块中整体市值偏小的细分行业，建议关注基础化工、汽车、新能源等方向 的配置机会。 ❑ 机械设备、通信、计算机、电子四行业触发拥挤信号。 截至 3 月 5 日，机械设备、通信、计算机、电子四行业的拥挤度较高，位于滚动 3 年的 95%分位预警阈值以上，或需警惕股价潜在的波动风险。 ❑ 综合策略最近一个月收益 4.6%，相对行业等权指数及 ...