27 May 2025 | 11:06AM CDT Americas Food: NielsenIQ data thru 5/17: Solid total food sales, although continued pressure for packaged food Total food sales increased +2.2%/+3.2% y/y for R4/12-wks (in-line with the long-term trend of +LSD), driven by pricing and partially offset by lower volumes. However, we observed sales declines across most of our coverage, with greater pressure on center-of-store companies amid ongoing consumption shifts toward fresh and increasing competition from smaller brands and priva ...

Investment Ratings - Diageo: Sell [2] - Pernod: Buy [3] - Campari: Neutral [4] Core Insights - The US spirits market is experiencing a decline, with overall sales down -3.3% excluding RTDs, and a slight decline of -0.3% including RTDs, driven by a volume increase of +2.6% [6][27] - Diageo continues to lose market share, with volumes including RTDs declining -7.5% and sales down -3.7% [2][11] - Pernod's volumes declined -7.8%, but Jameson showed modest improvement, indicating some resilience in the brand [19] - Campari's performance is underwhelming, with volumes down -1.8% and sales falling -1.9%, despite some growth in Aperol [28] Summary by Company Diageo - The USA accounted for 36% of Diageo's FY24 sales and 46% of EBIT [2][17] - Key brands like Crown Royal and Don Julio showed mixed results, with Crown Royal volumes flat and Don Julio up +20% [11][16] - Vodka brands Smirnoff, Ketel One, and Ciroc all lost market share, with Ciroc declining -27.8% [11][12] Pernod - The USA accounted for 19% of Pernod's FY24 sales and 24% of EBIT [3][20] - Jameson volumes improved slightly by +0.2%, while Absolut and Malibu faced declines of -4.6% and -9.2% respectively [19][21] - Overall sales declined by -6.4%, indicating a challenging market environment [19][23] Campari - The USA accounted for 28% of Campari's FY24 sales [4][29] - Espolon volumes turned negative for the first time since June '23, while Aperol grew by +4.7% [28][31] - Sales fell -1.9%, with a broadly flat price/mix indicating pricing pressures [28][32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Innogrit, but it highlights positive views on related companies such as Huaqin and Lingyi, both rated as "Buy" [13]. Core Insights - Innogrit is positioned as a competitive player in the memory controller IC and SSD market, with a focus on enterprise-grade products that have higher entry barriers and longer switching cycles compared to consumer-grade products [3][6]. - The global enterprise SSD market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an increasing volume of data, with China seeing a CAGR of 25-30% [4][6]. - Innogrit has successfully penetrated various enterprise-grade clients across local and global markets, including cloud service providers and large-scale enterprises in finance and energy sectors [3][6]. Company Profile - Innogrit is a memory controller IC design house established in 2017, focusing on the SSD market and offering products for consumer, enterprise, and data center markets [2]. - The company has launched over 10 memory controllers and has begun mass production of PCIe 5.0 memory controllers since 2024, with plans to release PCIe 6.0 products in 2026 [2]. Market Dynamics - The management of Innogrit believes that enterprise-grade products are less competitive than consumer-grade products due to their long switching cycles and higher reliability standards [3]. - The company has cumulatively shipped over 20 million memory controller ICs, 1 million industry-grade SSDs, and 250,000 enterprise SSDs, indicating a strong market presence [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Longcheer (603341.SS) as it is categorized as "Not Covered" [1]. Core Insights - Longcheer is optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, driven by market share expansion in PCs and new opportunities in AI glasses and smart cockpit technology [1][7]. - The smartphone ODM business holds a global market share of 33% as of 2024, with expectations for margin recovery in 2025 due to stabilizing raw material prices [4][7]. - The company is entering new business segments, including AI glasses and automotive electronics, which are expected to contribute to growth [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Longcheer (603341.SS) was established in 2002 and has become a global leader in consumer electronics ODM, with a diverse product line including smartphones, PCs, tablets, smart wearables, and automotive electronics [3]. Smartphone ODM Outlook - The smartphone ODM business is projected to recover margins in 2025 as raw material prices normalize, despite a saturated market [4][7]. - AI applications are anticipated to support future market growth, alongside increasing penetration rates in smartphone ODM [4]. New Business Development - The AI glasses segment is expected to see positive demand driven by new foundational models, while the penetration of AI PCs is projected to rise, enhancing the product replacement cycle [7]. - Longcheer's smart cockpit products are currently in testing and have begun to enter several local car OEMs, indicating a promising growth trajectory [7].

27 May 2025 | 9:01AM CEST GS Utilities Daily: Acciona Energia: More consensus earnings downgrades on the horizon for 2025-26 // Enel signs agreement to add Alberto Gandolfi +39(02)8022-0157 | alberto.gandolfi@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch Ajay Patel +44(20)7552-1168 | ajay.patel@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Mafalda Pombeiro +44(20)7552-9425 | mafalda.pombeiro@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lorenzo Zignani +39(02)8022-2139 | lorenzo.zignani@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - ...

Market Insights 市场洞察 GS TMT TODAY 5.27.25 ⾼盛科技媒体 电信今⽇简报 2025 年 5 ⽉ 27 ⽇ Futures bid solidly across the board (NDX +150ps / SPX +140bps / RTY +160bps) with Treasuries rallying (10yr rate back below 4.50% / 30yr rate below 5%) after Japan signaled changes to its debt sale plans, fueling speculation that demand for US bonds could rise. Additionally, Trump is delaying his 50% EU tariffs from June 1st to July 9th after a phone call with EU Commission President Von Der Leyen (Trump said it was a "good" call). In ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The spirits industry is currently experiencing a transition period, with companies focusing on stability, channel profits, and product quality rather than aggressive growth targets [3] - There is a noted weak trend in consumption around the Dragon Boat Festival, with only Moutai showing a slight increase in prepayment compared to the previous year [1][6] - Companies are increasingly targeting younger consumers and expanding their brand rejuvenation efforts to capture this demographic [3] Summary by Company Moutai - Moutai has introduced new promotional policies for residential and wedding banquets to stimulate demand, including cash rebates and complimentary honeymoon trips for larger events [13] - The wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased from Rmb2,165 to Rmb2,125, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's price fell from Rmb2,080 to Rmb2,060 [2][22] Wuliangye - Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, with prepayment rates in the first quarter of 2025 reported at 40%-50% [6][22] Guojiao 1573 - Guojiao 1573's wholesale price decreased from Rmb860 to Rmb855, with prepayment rates around 40%-45% [6][22] Yanghe - Yanghe reported a prepayment rate of approximately 45% and is focusing on expanding its sales network [6][8] Gujing - Gujing aims for nationwide expansion and a focus on sub-premium strategies, with a sales network covering over 70% of regions nationwide [7][8] Yingjia - Yingjia targets total sales of Rmb7.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, and plans to improve dividend payout ratios [11][13] Market Trends - The retail sales of liquor and tobacco in China grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [13] - Spirits companies are focusing on improving retail sell-through, inventory destocking, and channel expansion amid industry-wide growth deceleration [13]

27 May 2025 | 9:28AM CST China Property Weekly Wrap Week 21 Wrap - Transaction and sentiment stable; export-focused cities extended outperformance Key highlights for the week: Our tariff impact assessment (Exhibit 1 to Exhibit 4, more details on methodology) shows export-reliant cities outperformed broadly over the latest week: 1) transaction: the most export-reliant cities outperformed in both primary/secondary (+9%/+3% wow in aggregated volume vs. +4%/+2% for remaining cities); 2) secondary visitor traffi ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to YJ Semitech [1][9][12] Core Insights - The primary driver for YJ Semitech's growth in 2025 is the ramp-up of Continuous Wave (CW) laser shipments, supported by strong demand from key customers in silicon photonics transceivers [2][9] - The company is experiencing supply tightness in both CW lasers and Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers (EML), prompting plans for capacity expansion to meet customer demand [2][9] - YJ Semitech aims to reach a production capacity of low tens of millions of units per year by 2026, positioning itself for future trends in the industry [2][9] Summary by Sections CW Laser Ramp Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook for CW laser shipments, driven by strong demand from key customers [2] - The company is expanding output capacity through additional equipment and improved yield levels [2] - The capacity expansion is intended to capture near-term opportunities and future trends in the industry [2] Competitive Barriers - The key competitive barrier is not just product performance but also includes product quality, reliability, delivery capability, and capacity scale [3] - Once a supplier establishes a solid track record, customers are unlikely to switch suppliers easily [3] Margins and Pricing Comparison - YJ Semitech's CW laser pricing is slightly below that of global peers [4] - The gross margin for the datacom segment is projected at 71% in 2024, primarily driven by customized products [4] 100G EML Outlook - The company's 100G EML products have passed customer qualifications but are not yet in mass production due to prioritization of CW laser production [7] - As capacity increases, there will be more room for EML production, aiding in ramp progress [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb252 million in 2024 to Rmb460 million in 2025, and further to Rmb665 million in 2026 [8] - The net income is expected to rise from Rmb161 million in 2025 to Rmb284 million in 2026 [8] - The report sets a 12-month price target of Rmb100 based on a 30x 2026E P/E ratio, indicating a downside potential of 21.9% from the current price of Rmb128.04 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for BYD Co. with a 12-month price target of Rmb424 for A shares and HK$416 for H shares, indicating an upside potential of 11.3% for A shares and a downside of 2.2% for H shares [11][12]. Core Insights - The impact of BYD's "618" promotions on its sales may be less severe than initially feared, as the price reductions include existing government and OEM trade-in subsidies [2][3]. - The promotion affects 12 models with an average price reduction of Rmb10k, translating to a 9% discount, which could lead to an estimated Rmb2.6 billion impact on BYD's top line, equating to 5% of the projected net profit for 2025 [3][4]. - If competitors follow suit with similar pricing strategies, the potential impact on BYD could escalate to Rmb12.4 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Promotion Impact - BYD's "618" promotions involve discounts on 22 models, primarily priced below Rmb200k, with limited-time pricing until the end of June [1]. - The average blended ASP of the 12 models affected is Rmb114k, and these models accounted for significant portions of BYD's volume, revenue, and gross profit in Q1 2025 [3]. Financial Estimates - Following the promotion announcement, net profit estimates for 2025E-2027E have been reduced by 3%-5%, and target prices have been adjusted downwards by 3% [6]. - The report provides updated revenue forecasts, projecting Rmb777.1 billion for 2025, with a gradual increase to Rmb1.18 trillion by 2027 [11]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that traditional OEMs dominate the NEV sales volume mix in the below Rmb200k segment, indicating a competitive pricing environment [5][10]. - BYD's market position is reinforced by its strong competitive moat due to its vertical integration business model, positioning it as a leading global auto OEM [8].