Investment Rating - The report provides a growth forecast for China with a rating of 4.6% for 2025, which is above consensus expectations [9][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [6]. - It expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth due to challenges such as demographics, debt, and de-risking, while noting potential upside risks from AI adoption [8]. - The report anticipates that elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact GDP growth, projecting flat export volumes for the year [9]. - It expects a widening fiscal deficit by 2.6 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth rising to 9.5% [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report forecasts China's GDP growth at 4.6% for 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, with domestic demand expected to rise to 4.5% [10]. - Consumption growth is projected at 4.9% for 2025, with household consumption at 4.8% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report predicts a prolonged reflation path with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.1% in 2025 [9]. - It outlines a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, aimed at stabilizing the economy [32]. Trade and Exports - The report notes that Chinese exports are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms in 2025, following a 5.9% increase in 2024 [10]. - It emphasizes that despite US-China trade tensions, Chinese exports to other economies may continue to grow [23]. Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending and lower revenue [37]. - The report discusses the implications of local government debt and special bond issuance on fiscal health [37].

24 May 2025 | 4:11AM HKT We hosted Lithography expert, Axera (Private)'s Chairperson, and SICC (688234.SS, Buy)'s CTO at the panel, Semiconductors: Completing the Self-Sufficiency Chain, on May 21 during our TechNet Conference China 2025. Key discussions were about China's efforts in developing semiconductor technologies (from lithography, IC design to materials) as well as the outlook for semiconductor capex and R&D investment in China. Overall, the expert/ management see continuous R&D progress in technol ...

21 May 2025 | 10:53AM EDT Americas Transportation: Eye on Freight: "Big Three" Ports Somewhat Lower Than Seasonality; Trade Uncertainty Could Create Volatility The "Big Three" West Coast Ports (L.A., Long Beach, and Oakland) reported April 2025 traffic – with combined inbound loaded containers +9.5% y/y, which is above the pre-pandemic five-year average of +1% y/y. Sequentially, the combined data was up +10% m/m, which is below the 5-yr average (typically +12% m/m, Exhibit 1). Focus on JBHT and UNP for West ...

20 May 2025 | 7:01AM CST China Property Weekly Wrap Week 20 Wrap - Transactions rebounded with more upbeat performance from export-oriented cities Key highlights for the week: Our tariff impact assessment (Exhibit 1 to Exhibit 4, more details on methodology) showcases more upbeat performance from export-reliant cities: 1) transaction: under web-registration metrics, the most export-reliant cities outperformed in primary (+26% wow in aggregated volume vs. flattish for rest cities) but lagged peers in seconda ...

21 May 2025 | 4:09PM BST Global Markets Daily: The Case for Relative EM Local Rate Resilience to US Back-End Pressures (Gedminas) The Case for Relative EM Local Rate Resilience to US Back-End Pressures Concerns Over US Long-End Spillovers Come at a Time of Tight EM Local Spreads The US-China tariff relief brought a sharp recovery in cyclical and risk assets, as the market priced out some of the downside risks to global growth. This shift puts EM local rate markets in an awkward position, as the front-end-le ...

19 May 2025 | 3:01PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Global Growth Outlook Improves on Better Tariff News Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week Exhibit 1: Our 2025 Global Growth Forecast Was Revised Up to 2.3% Following the 90-day Suspension of US-China Tariffs and Generally Better Tariff News Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ...

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights 市场洞察 CHINA WATCH: Small Cap Backwardation - Two Sides of A Coin 中国观察：⼩盘股倒挂——硬币的两⾯ While we are again back in a policy void and catalyst absence period, two observations topical lately onshore: 虽然我们再次处于政策真空和缺乏催化剂的时期，但近期在岸市场有两个值得关注的现象： 1. Small cap re-active: Small/micro-cap turnover % of market reaching new high ⼩盘股反应活跃：⼩盘/微盘股成交额占市场⽐例达到新⾼ high 2. Backwardation/futures discount: Index futures basis widened and discount moved to new 逆价差/期货贴⽔：指数期货基差扩⼤ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for hedge fund performance, particularly for Asia-focused Fundamental Long/Short managers, with a year-to-date (YTD) performance of 6.1% and a month-to-date (MTD) increase of 1.6% [5][7]. Core Insights - The recovery in equity markets is attributed to the US-China tariff deal, which has allowed Fundamental Long/Short managers to recover from early April losses [5]. - The report highlights that returns are primarily driven by beta, with positive alpha contributions from asset selection, while negative returns stem from concentrated longs and country tilts [5]. - Strong net buying flows were observed in the global prime book, with North America accounting for 90% of the inflows, indicating a risk-on sentiment [5][23]. Summary by Sections Hedge Fund Performance - Asia-focused Fundamental Long/Short managers reported a MTD increase of 1.6% and a YTD performance of 6.1% [5][7]. - China-focused managers achieved a MTD increase of 1.3% and a YTD return of 6.5% [10]. - Japan-focused managers saw a MTD increase of 0.8% and a YTD return of 5.9%, with significant dispersion across managers [5][10]. Positioning and Flows - The global prime book experienced strong net buying, primarily driven by the US-China deal, with long buys outpacing short covering at a ratio of 3.9 to 1 [5][23]. - Asian equities saw marginal net buying in May, with inflows into emerging markets offset by outflows from developed markets [5][26]. - Japanese equities experienced slight net selling, with hedge funds adding macro shorts and single stock longs [5][38]. Trading Flows - Chinese equities saw slight net selling, with A-shares net bought due to short covering, while H-shares and ADRs experienced net selling [32][35]. - Japanese equities had marginal net selling, with short sales exceeding long buys [38][44]. - Taiwan and Korea showed slight increases in gross allocation, with Taiwan at 2.2% and Korea at 0.7% [47]. Sector Positioning - In Asia, the most overweight sectors include Industrials (+5.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+3.8%), and Communication Services (+2.4%) [54]. - Financials remain the most underweight sector at -11% [54]. - The report notes that Industrials is the most net bought sector in May, with significant buying across Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan [64].

23 May 2025 | 9:51AM EDT Apple Inc. (AAPL): Updated tariff comments BOTTOM LINE: AAPL is trading down 3% in pre-market trading on 5/23/2025 following a post on Truth Social that President Trump stated AAPL would face tariffs of at least 25% on iPhones sold in the United States that are manufactured outside of the United States. The US reciprocal tariffs (excluding the current tariff suspensions) on AAPL's key final assembly countries are already >25% so we believe this is consistent with current trade polic ...

25 May 2025 | 9:15AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME): TechNet China 2025 Key Takeaways: SVIP progress on track; Long-term vision to diversify We hosted Tencent Music with investors during GS TechNet China 2025 in Shanghai, where investors' key focus and our takeaways centered around: 1) SVIP progress: management notes SVIP now accounts for low-teens% of its total paying users with current monthly ARPU at Rmb17~18 and a sequentially improving trajectory; 2) Net adds trend, where company reiterate ...