2 May 2025 | 4:48PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart S&P 500 return on equity continues to trump the rest of the world David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-774 ...

1 These are based on BOP definitions; the goods trade surplus would be 4.8% of GDP in 2025 (vs. 5.2% in 2024) based on the Customs definition. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation industry but discusses various scenarios impacting trade volumes and earnings for 2025, indicating a cautious outlook [2][3]. Core Insights - The report introduces a US Tariff Impact Tracker to assess the ongoing effects of tariffs on global supply chains and freight flow, with a focus on high-frequency data [1]. - It outlines two primary scenarios for 2025: continued pull forward of shipments ahead of a 90-day tariff pause and a potential pause in customer orders due to uncertainty [2]. - The report suggests that trade flows from non-China Asia may remain stable as shippers adjust supply chains, while shipments from China to the US are expected to decline significantly [3]. - UPS anticipates a 25% decrease in China to US business in the second quarter, with overall international revenues projected to decline by only 2% year-over-year [3]. High Frequency Data Summary - Laden container vessels from China to the US have decreased by 23.3% year-over-year on average over the last week, following a previous increase of 22% [6]. - TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) from China to the US have dropped by 26% year-over-year on average over the last week, down from a previous increase of 14% [11]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles decreased by 18% year-over-year, with forecasts indicating a further decline of 35% year-over-year in the following week [21]. Trade Volume Trends - The report notes that intermodal traffic on the West Coast increased by 5% on average in week 17, indicating that front-loaded traffic is still impacting volumes [27]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows upstream inventory expansion slowing down, while downstream inventories are expanding at a faster pace, possibly in anticipation of tariffs [47]. - The report highlights that the balance of trade volumes and earnings for the transportation sector remains uncertain, with potential scenarios ranging from a surge in orders to a continued decline [7].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Hwatsing and Maxscend to Neutral from Buy due to relatively lower upside potential across the coverage [2][30]. Core Insights - The report remains positive on China Semis, driven by generative AI and autonomous driving trends, with upgrades for SMIC, VeriSilicon, AMEC, and Cambricon to Buy [1][2]. - Hwatsing is a local leader in CMP equipment, expanding into wafer thinning and ion implantation tools, but faces challenges in revenue growth from mature nodes [11][28]. - Maxscend is experiencing slower growth in the Android smartphone market, impacting its revenue and net income forecasts [31]. Summary by Company Hwatsing - Downgraded to Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb201, suggesting a 22% upside potential [10][11]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-27E revised down by 4%/5%/6% due to slower contributions from mature nodes CMP tools [2][14]. - Expected revenue growth of 38%/20% YoY in 2025/26E driven by product mix upgrades towards advanced nodes [12][14]. - 1Q25 results showed revenues of Rmb912 million, a 34% YoY increase but 7% below estimates [14][15]. Maxscend - Downgraded to Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb86, indicating a 14.9% upside potential [30][31]. - Net income estimates reduced by 36%/25%/4% for 2025-27E due to weaker-than-expected 1Q25 results and slow smartphone market growth [31]. - The company is expanding its product lines from RF discrete to modules, but faces gross margin pressure from pricing competition [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanhua, Shuanghuan, and a "Neutral" rating for LeaderDrive, Best Precision, and Moons' Electric [1][42][45][46][49]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid product iterations and increased R&D focus across various players, indicating a strong long-term total addressable market (TAM) potential despite uncertainties in near-term technological breakthroughs [1]. - The report forecasts 20,000 units of humanoid robots to be shipped in 2025 and 1.4 million units globally by 2035 [1]. - Domestic players are accelerating commercialization efforts, with several auto OEMs like Tesla, XPENG, and Xiaomi testing humanoid robots in their factories, aiming for mass production by 2025-2026 [2]. - The shift in R&D focus from hardware to robotic AI development is evident, with startups introducing various AI models trained on real data to enhance performance [2]. Product Progress - A small scale of commercialization is expected in 2025, with domestic players speeding up public sales of humanoid robots [2]. - Companies like ENGINEAI have started selling humanoid robots at competitive prices, with some models priced below RMB 200,000 [2]. - Major players are establishing production lines with capacities ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 units annually, adjusting expansion based on actual customer orders [6]. Software Development - High-quality real data is crucial for training robotic AI models, with startups focusing on developing their own AI systems [2]. - UBTech is optimizing its training strategy by combining real and simulated data to improve efficiency and reduce costs [2]. Hardware Innovations - The report highlights the emergence of new players in the humanoid robot component market, focusing on product differentiation [7]. - Companies like LeaderDrive and Shuanghuan are developing new reducer products and enhancing their manufacturing capabilities [7][29][31]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for humanoid robots is expanding, with various component manufacturers reporting progress in R&D and sample testing [10]. - Companies like Sanhua and Tuopu are preparing for mass production of actuators and other components, targeting significant market shares [26][27]. Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with various companies aiming to capture substantial market shares in their respective segments [42][45][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous innovation and adaptation in the rapidly evolving humanoid robot industry [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies analyzed Core Insights - The S&P 500 earnings growth for 1Q 2025 is tracking at 12%, significantly higher than the initial expectation of 6%, primarily driven by positive margin surprises [3][4][6] - There is an elevated level of uncertainty reflected in corporate forward guidance, with a lower proportion of companies providing EPS guidance compared to historical averages [3][10] - Consensus EPS revisions have been negative, indicating that uncertainty is beginning to weigh on demand and investment, with both sales and capex revision breadth turning more negative recently [3][21][22] - A notable increase in the mention of "recession" by S&P 500 companies during earnings calls, rising from 2% last quarter to 24% this quarter, highlights growing concerns about economic conditions [3][26][33] - Companies are quantifying the expected impact of tariffs on their financial metrics, with 22% of reporting companies providing estimates related to tariffs [31][34] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Year-over-year S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking at 12%, with better-than-expected margins contributing to positive surprises [3][4] - 51% of S&P 500 companies beat consensus EPS forecasts by more than a standard deviation, slightly above the long-term average of 48% [6][11] Forward Guidance - 17% of S&P 500 companies provided quarter-ahead guidance, slightly below average, while 45% provided FY1 guidance, in line with average [10][20] - 56% of companies guided below consensus FY1 estimates, indicating a more negative outlook compared to historical averages [17][20] Economic Concerns - The frequency of companies mentioning "recession" has increased significantly, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty [26][28][33] - Management commentary has focused on recession risks and the potential impact of tariffs on business operations [3][31] Tariff Impact - Companies are actively discussing the potential impacts of tariffs, with many quantifying expected costs and mitigation strategies [31][34][40] - The estimated tariff-related costs for various companies range widely, with some projecting impacts of hundreds of millions of dollars [34][43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Tesla Inc. with a 12-month price target of $235, indicating a potential downside of 16.1% from the current price of $280.26 [21][26]. Core Insights - Tesla's ability to leverage its Full Self Driving (FSD) software in China is crucial for its future stock performance, given the size of the Chinese vehicle market and the competitive landscape for ADAS software [1][15]. - China has emerged as Tesla's largest market for new vehicle sales, attributed to higher BEV penetration rates compared to other regions [2][3]. - Tesla's TTM share in the US BEV market has decreased to approximately 45%, while its share in Europe has fallen to the low double-digit range; however, its share in China has remained stable in the high single-digit range [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is characterized by a BEV adoption rate of over 30%, significantly higher than that of the US and select European countries [11]. - Consumer sentiment towards Tesla in China has been more favorable compared to North America and Europe, as indicated by stronger consumer scores and net buzz metrics [9][14]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla's FSD offering faces competition from local brands in China that provide advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) as standard features, which could impact Tesla's long-term economics related to autonomy [16][20]. - The report highlights various local competitors offering similar or superior features at competitive prices, which may challenge Tesla's market position [20]. Financial Projections - The report projects Tesla's revenue to reach approximately $97.69 billion in 2024, with an EBITDA of $16.01 billion [26]. - The analysis includes a downside scenario where Tesla's stock could drop to around $150, assuming slower volume growth and margin improvement, while an upside scenario could see the stock rise to approximately $345 [21].

6 May 2025 | 1:27AM HKT Cambricon (688256.SS): 2025 private placement on AI chips and Software platform; R&D commitment to support long term growth; Buy Cambricon announced a 2025 private placement on May 1 (link), aiming to issue within 21m shares, or no more than 5% of current shares in exchange of no more than Rmb4,980m (US$685m) cash, to develop: (1) AI chips for generative AI, 58% of the funding, (2) Software for generative AI, 32% of the funding, and (3) supplement working capital, 10% of the funding. ...

6 May 2025 | 9:32AM HKT PDD Holdings (PDD) Temu US full-entrusted model suspension more drastic-than-expected; TP unchanged as we continue to value Temu non-US only; Buy Following the implementation of triple-digit % US de-minimis tariffs for low-value packages shipped from China/HK from May 2nd, Temu has halted its entire full-entrusted direct air shipment product offerings on its US site (while maintaining such for other markets). Temu subsequently confirmed that all sales in the US will only be handled b ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly reduced oil price forecast due to higher OPEC supply assumptions, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026 [8][12][13] Core Insights - OPEC8+ countries decided to increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) month-over-month for June, reflecting low inventories and a strategic shift to support internal cohesion and discipline US shale supply [1][4] - The expected production increase for July has been adjusted to 0.41 million barrels per day (mb/d) from a previous estimate of 0.14 mb/d, driven by recent economic data suggesting resilient demand [5][8] - The oil price forecast has been nudged down by $2-3, with the new average prices reflecting adjustments in supply expectations and economic activity [8][12] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Decisions - The decision to raise production aligns with a broader strategy to manage compliance among member countries and address low oil inventories [4][5] - The report highlights that the production increase is likely to continue if compliance improves among lagging countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan [3][4] Economic Activity and Demand - Recent US economic data, including payroll reports and ISM readings, indicate solid momentum, suggesting that a slowdown in demand may not be imminent [5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring compliance and economic indicators to assess future production levels and price forecasts [7][8] Price Forecast Adjustments - The updated oil price forecast reflects a downward adjustment due to increased supply expectations, with Brent and WTI prices expected to average lower than previously forecasted [8][12] - The report maintains that high spare capacity and recession risks skew the risks to oil prices to the downside despite tight spot fundamentals [9][10]