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顺丰控股(002352):件量加速增长,一季度盈利超预期
华泰证券· 2025-04-29 08:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 69.85 billion RMB in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion RMB, up 16.9% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations due to operational model transformation and network optimization [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from stable profits from express delivery, diversified business growth, and international expansion, leading to a revaluation from an express delivery company to a comprehensive logistics service provider [1][3] Revenue and Volume Growth - The average daily volume of parcels increased by 21.0% year-on-year to 3.56 billion parcels, with total parcel volume growing by 19.7% to 3.54 billion parcels [2] - The average price per parcel decreased by approximately 11.0% year-on-year to 14.55 RMB, continuing the trend of "price for volume" established over the past 24 years [2] Business Segments and Cost Optimization - Revenue from express logistics grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international business revenue increased by 9.9% year-on-year, driven by competitive product offerings and enhanced international network capabilities [2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 13.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 8.0% to 9.29 billion RMB [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 11.8 billion RMB, 14.2 billion RMB, and 16.0 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding EBITDA of 34.9 billion RMB, 38.5 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB [3] - The valuation for A-shares is set at 8.0x EV/EBITDA for 2025, above the average of 4.8x for comparable companies, while H-shares are valued at 7.7x EV/EBITDA, also above the average of 5.2x [3]
科达制造(600499):Q1收入利润同比高增,25年有望迎来业绩向上拐点
天风证券· 2025-04-29 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 47.05% in Q1 2025, reaching 3.767 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.38% to 347 million yuan [1]. - The report highlights that the company's overseas building materials business is experiencing substantial growth, particularly in the African market, which is expected to support future revenue expansion [1][2]. - The company has set ambitious annual growth targets for revenue and net profit of approximately 20% and 20.8% respectively for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a potential turning point in performance in 2025 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin improved to 29.68%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 13.84%, down 2.08 percentage points due to increased foreign exchange losses [3]. - The company reported a net profit of 3.47 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.13% increase year-on-year [1]. - The financial forecast indicates a projected revenue of 15.344 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 21.78% [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The building materials machinery segment faced slight declines due to cyclical demand and investment adjustments, but the company is optimizing its overseas base layout, which is expected to enhance the consumables business [2]. - The overseas building materials sales segment benefited from the expansion of glass business and improved pricing strategies, leading to significant revenue growth and enhanced overall profitability [2]. - The lithium business, while still contributing to profits, saw a decrease in its profit share, dropping to 26% of the company's total net profit in Q1 2025, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [2].
中国石化(600028):业绩略超预期,高股息仍具价值
天风证券· 2025-04-29 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 735.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.3 billion yuan, down 27.58% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in oil and gas prices has significantly pressured the sector's profits, with oil equivalent production at 131 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while crude oil production decreased by 0.8% [2]. - Concerns over peak demand for refined oil have led to continued pressure on refining profits, with refining throughput at 6.2 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, and total refined oil sales at 5.6 million tons, down 7.1% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is set at 55.5 billion, 56.2 billion, and 61.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]. - The expected dividend yield for A shares in 2025 is projected at 5.6%, while H shares are expected to yield 9.0% [4]. - Financial data shows a projected revenue of 3,136.05 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.00% [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Sinopec's current market capitalization is approximately 555.2 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 541.5 billion yuan [6]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to be 12.47 for 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.80 [5][11].
泸州老窖(000568):业绩稳中有增,提升股东回报
东方证券· 2025-04-29 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 155.36 CNY, maintaining the rating [5][11]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through a significant cash dividend plan [2][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 31.196 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.473 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 87.58 billion CNY over the year, representing approximately 65% of the net profit for 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 30.233 billion CNY in 2023 to 41.967 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.8% [4]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 87.5% to 88.6% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to range from 42.8% to 44.9% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 12.80 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.9 for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.8 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 28, 2025, was 125.6 CNY, with a 52-week high of 186.79 CNY and a low of 97.77 CNY [5]. - The company has experienced a relative performance decline of 28.69% over the past 12 months [6].
新宝股份(002705):海外需求旺盛带动外销增长,Q1利润表现亮眼
天风证券· 2025-04-29 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.75% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing strong overseas demand, leading to significant growth in exports, while domestic sales are under pressure due to a sluggish consumer market [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.63%, down 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, a 6.15% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, up 11.07% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a 10.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 247 million yuan, a significant increase of 43.02% year-on-year [1]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's domestic sales decreased by 4.42% while international sales increased by 21.68%. In Q4 2024, domestic sales fell by 11.3% and international sales grew by 14.1% [2]. - For Q1 2025, domestic sales declined by 4.94% while international sales rose by 15.77%, indicating a continued trend of strong export growth despite domestic challenges [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, down from the previous year, while the net margin was 6.63% [3]. - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 19.38%, a decline of 4.01 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin slightly improved to 7.01% [3]. Expense Management - The company maintained good control over its expense ratios in 2024, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 3.6%, 4.94%, 3.94%, and -0.52% respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 3.9% for sales, 5.8% for management, and 3.36% for R&D, indicating a slight increase in management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see gradual recovery in domestic sales due to a low base, while external orders are anticipated to continue driving overall revenue growth [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.21 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.74x, 7.68x, and 6.99x [4].
招商公路(001965):归母净利润稳健增长,业绩符合预期
申万宏源证券· 2025-04-29 08:13
上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 29 日 招商公路 (001965) ——归母净利润稳健增长,业绩符合预期 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 增持(维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 13.04 | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 14.22/10.63 | | 市净率 | 1.3 | | 息率(分红/股价) | 4.07 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | 88,937 | 上证指数/深证成指 3,288.41/9,855.20 | 注:"息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | --- | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.84 | | 资产负债率% | 43.45 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 6,820/6,820 | | 流通 B 股/H 股(百万) | -/- | 交通运输 研究支持 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 联系人 严天鹏 (8621)23297818× yant ...
科华数据(002335):2025年一季报及2024年年报点评:营收+业绩稳健齐升,出海+AIDC有望贡献增量
东吴证券· 2025-04-29 08:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and performance are expected to rise steadily, with overseas expansion and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) likely to contribute to incremental growth [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.71%, and a net profit of 315.18 million yuan, down 37.90% year-on-year [7] - The data center business is showing strong growth, with revenue from this segment reaching 3.15 billion yuan in 2024, up 14.70% year-on-year, accounting for over 40% of total revenue [7] - The company is focusing on core products and product upgrades, which has led to improved profitability despite a decline in revenue from certain segments [7] - The company is increasing its overseas business efforts, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which is expected to recover by the end of Q3 2025 [7] - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control, with operating expenses decreasing by 5.7% year-on-year in 2024 [7] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 688 million yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 118%, 52%, and 34% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 8.92 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.93% [1] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 688 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.33 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.69 [1] - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 13.02 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 7.78 billion yuan [8]
豪鹏科技(001283):Q1业绩符合预期,盈利拐点显现
申万宏源证券· 2025-04-29 08:13
上 市 公 司 电力设备 一年内股价与大盘对比走势: 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12-29 01-29 02-28 03-31 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 豪鹏科技 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 2025 年 04 月 29 日 豪鹏科技 (001283) ——Q1 业绩符合预期,盈利拐点显现 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 买入(维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | 49.53 | 收盘价(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 68.86/31.45 | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 1.9 | 市净率 | | 0.97 | 股息率%(分红/股价) | 2,866 | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | 上证指数/深证成指 | 注:"股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产(元) | 26.38 | ...
广东宏大(002683):年度业绩点评:矿服业务营收创新高,积极并购民爆产能
东北证券· 2025-04-29 08:13
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in mining service revenue, with total revenue for 2024 reaching 13.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, up 25.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The mining service segment generated revenue of 10.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.0% year-on-year growth, driven by increased investments in rich mineral areas and accelerated international expansion [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog exceeding 30 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for future growth [1]. - The company is actively integrating and optimizing its explosive production capacity, having acquired controlling stakes in two companies to increase explosive production capacity by 82,000 tons per year [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 21.3% for 2024, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 8.6%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - Forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 21.71 billion, 24.71 billion, and 28.22 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 59.05%, 13.80%, and 14.21% respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.58, 1.90, and 2.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.42, 16.14, and 14.49 [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company's overseas revenue reached 1.36 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, accounting for 9.9% of total revenue, up 8.1 percentage points [2]. - The company is investing in a new explosives factory in Zambia and has acquired a 51% stake in EXSUR in Peru to meet local mining project demands [2]. - The company is optimizing its explosive production capacity by relocating excess capacity to regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [2].
华阳国际(002949):主业企稳,布局数字文化业务新引擎
长江证券· 2025-04-29 08:13
丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨华阳国际(002949.SZ) [Table_Title] 主业企稳,布局数字文化业务新引擎 报告要点 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490520080022 SAC:S0490522060005 SFC:BUT917 [Table_Summary] 2024 年公司全年实现营业收入 11.67 亿元,同比减少 22.55%;归属净利润 1.25 亿元,同比减 少 22.33%;扣非后归属净利润 1.13 亿元,同比减少 12.73%。 2025 年公司一季度实现营业收入 2.64 亿元,同比增长 15.36%;归属净利润 0.02 亿元,同比 减少 20.22%;扣非后归属净利润 0.01 亿元,同比减少 51.82%。 2024 年公司全年实现营业收入 11.67 亿元,同比减少 22.55%;归属净利润 1.25 亿元,同比 减少 22.33%;扣非后归属净利润 1.13 亿元,同比减少 12.73%。 2025 年公司一季度实现营业收入 2.64 亿元,同比增长 15.36%;归属净利润 0.02 亿元,同 ...