今日早参 2026 年 3 月 03 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：开年出行活跃、地产成交环比改善 春节假期居民消费、出行需求旺盛，个性化、体验性需求快速释放；节后复 工复产情况好于去年同期，上海发布楼市新政"沪七条"、率先拉开节后地 产政策调整序幕，地产成交（尤其是二手房）初现边际企稳迹象；外需方 面，1-2 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 12 月继续上行。出行及消费方 面，春运前 27 天（2 月 2-28 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 5.9%， 其中铁路/公路/水路/民航发送人员同比增长 7.4%/5.7%/19.7%/6.3%；春节 假期国内居民旅游人次/收入同比增长 19%/18.7%，商务部数据显示智能眼 镜、具身智能机器人销售额同比分别增长 47.3%、32.7%，入境游产品订单 同比增长 18.4%。出口方面，高频指标显示偏高基数下 1-2 月出口同比增速 或较 12 月回升至 12%。节后复工复产进度好于同期：农历春节对齐后，百 年建筑网全国工地复工率/劳务上工率分别高于去 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry is resilient, and the top-down "anti-involution" is driving up express prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies, indicating a favorable long-term competitive opportunity for e-commerce express delivery [17] - The oil transportation market may see a significant price increase due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, which could limit Iranian oil exports [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [17] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping and Ports - The SCFI comprehensive freight index increased by 6.5% week-on-week to 1333 points, with notable increases in shipping rates to Europe, the Mediterranean, and the US [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil shipping rose by 6.47% to 1870 points, with VLCC TCE increasing by 30.2% [6] - The BCTI index for refined oil shipping increased by 3.3% to 838 points, with significant rises in rates for LR1 and MR vessels [6] - The BDI index for bulk carriers rose by 2.7% to 2120 points, indicating a positive trend in bulk shipping rates [6] - New ship prices have generally decreased, with the new ship price index down by 0.57 points to 182.15 points [6] Express Logistics - The Zhejiang Postal Administration has outlined nine key tasks for 2026, focusing on maintaining fair competition and enhancing service quality in the express delivery sector [9] - During the Spring Festival, the express delivery volume in Yiwu reached a historical high of 56.3 million packages in a single day, with a year-on-year growth of 10% in package volume [10] - Shentong Express emphasized the role of AI in operations, aiming for a collaborative strategy focused on experience, market share, and profit [11] Aviation and Airports - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [13] - The number of inbound foreign tourists increased by 49.5% in 2025, indicating a recovery in international travel [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were orderly from February 16 to February 22, with rail freight down by 10.72% and highway freight traffic down by 70.59% [16] Sub-industry Data Tracking Express Logistics - In December 2025, the national express service volume reached 18.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [26] - In January 2026, YTO Express achieved a business volume of 2.943 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.75% [33] Shipping - The Clarksons comprehensive freight rate was $37,591 per day, a week-on-week increase of 10.37% [49] - The BDI index for bulk shipping rose by 2.70% [49] Aviation - In January 2026, civil aviation completed a passenger transport volume of approximately 63 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [59] Ports - From February 16 to February 22, 2026, China's port cargo throughput was 187.61 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 21.75% [80]

证券研究报告 交通运输 地缘风险溢价或将推升全球航运价格 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 当地时间 2 月 28 日，美国联合以色列对伊朗发动大规模联合空袭。截至 3 月 1 日，双方交火持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡及红海航线安全风险 急剧攀升，航线运力被迫重新部署和调配，航运保险费用大幅上涨。市场对 全球能源及贸易供应链中断的担忧持续加剧，战争风险溢价持续释放，油运、 集运、散货各板块运价或将迎来大幅跳涨。相关个股：中远海能 AH/招商轮 船/中远海控/海丰国际/太平洋航运。 油运：伊朗禁止船舶通过霍尔木兹海峡，供应链中断风险推升运价 截至 3 月 1 日，伊朗表示将采取"毁灭性"回击并宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡， 全球能源供应链中断风险急剧上升，或将引发市场避险情绪，推升国际油价； 同时市场加剧担忧运输成本上涨及供应链中断风险，订船需求激增，造成短 期市场供需错配，运价大幅上涨。霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一 出口，对全球能源供应具有重要的战略意义。根据 Kpler 数据，2025 年通 过霍尔木兹海峡运往全球的石油量（原油及凝析油）占全球石油海运总量的 31%。分国别看 ...

【中金交运】油运市场更新：VLCC现货运价保持20万美元/天，沙特Bahri租船 现货市场：昨晚最新的VLCC中东到中国TD3C航线的TCE上涨5%到20.6万美元/天 沙特国家石油运输公司Bahri下场租船（以下为彭博新闻报道，Gemini翻译）：沙特阿拉伯最大的石油航运公司 已初步租用至少五艘超级油轮。 沙特国家石油运输公司Bahri下场租船（以下为彭博新闻报道，Gemini翻译）：沙特阿拉伯最大的石油航运公司 已初步租用至少五艘超级油轮。 在油轮租用成本飙升之际，此举进一步推高了对这类巨型船舶的需求。 据 Tankers International的预订追踪系统显示，沙特国家航运公司（Bahri）已完成了其中两艘船舶的租用。 另外两艘出现在经纪人的成交报告中，而第五艘则得到了知情人士的证实。 根据成交信息，这五艘超大型原油运输船（VLCC）预计将在未来几周内把原油从该地区运往亚洲。 在油轮租用成本飙升之际，此举进一步推高了对这类巨型船舶的需求。 < 【中金交运】油运市场更新：VLCC现货运价保持20万美元/天，沙特Bahri租船 现货市场：昨晚最新的VLCC中东到中国TD3C航线的TCE上涨5%到20. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong High Dividend ETF (159302) has experienced a decline in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year, indicating potential challenges in attracting investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of February 26, the Hong Kong High Dividend ETF (159302) closed down 0.73% with a trading volume of 10.55 million yuan [1]. - The fund was established on August 23, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index, adjusted for valuation exchange rates [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - As of February 25, the latest share count for the fund was 10.5 million shares, with a total size of 145 million yuan [1]. - Compared to December 31, 2025, the fund's share count has decreased by 12.15% and total size has decreased by 5.36% this year [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount was 365 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 18.23 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Management and Holdings - The current fund manager is Zhang Yichi, who has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 34.80% during his tenure [2]. - The top holdings of the fund include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Far East Horizon, Minsheng Bank, and others, with the largest holding being COSCO Shipping Holdings at 5.67% [2].

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 港股红利低波ETF（159569）现任基金经理为龚丽丽、汪洋。龚丽丽自2024年8月29日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益48.54%；汪洋自2025年8月13日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 5.74%。 最新定期报告显示，港股红利低波ETF（159569）重仓股包括中远海控、东方海外国际、兖矿能源、海 丰国际、兖煤澳大利亚、万洲国际、中国神华、远东宏信、中国海洋石油、中国石油化工股份，持仓占 比如下。 股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）01919中远海控8.86%332.45万4128.79万 00316东方海外国际7.48%30.80万3488.52万01171兖矿能源5.65%303.40万2636.24万01308海丰国际 4.52%83.70万2106.20万03668兖煤澳大利亚4.46%89.77万2077.32万00288万洲国际3.76%223.95万1753.73 万01088中国神华3.63%48.30万1692.67万03360远东宏信3.39%217.60万1580.19万00883中国海洋石油 3.27%79.30万1525. ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 海豐國際控股有限公司 主席 楊現祥 中華人民共和國，二零二六年二月二十六日 於本公告日期，本公司之執行董事為楊現祥先生、薛明元先生、劉克誠先生及賴智勇先生；非執行 董事為楊馨女士；獨立非執行董事為謝少毅先生、廖家瑩博士及胡曼恬博士。 1308 董事會召開日期 海豐國際控股有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）茲通告謹定於二零二六年 三月十日（星期二）舉行董事會會議，藉以批准（其中包括）本公司及其附屬公司 截至二零二五年十二月三十一日止的年度之全年業績公告，及考慮派發末期股 息之建議（如有），以及處理其他事項。 承董事會命 SITC International Holdings Company Limited ...

Group 1 - The shipping stocks have risen across the board, with COSCO Shipping Holdings (601866)(02866) up 6.09% to HKD 1.22, COSCO Shipping International (601919)(01919) up 2.82% to HKD 14.96, Orient Overseas International (00316) up 2.52% to HKD 146.6, and Seaspan Corporation (01308) up 0.73% to HKD 33.22 [1] - On February 3, shipping groups Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk announced adjustments to their shared shipping route, which will now reroute through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. However, the "Maersk Detroit" vessel, which was supposed to make its inaugural voyage through the Red Sea, diverted south to navigate around the Cape of Good Hope due to adverse weather conditions in the western Mediterranean [1] - According to a report from Shenwan Hongyuan, this rerouting indicates that the resumption of services through the Red Sea will not materialize in the short term. The market is approaching early March schedules, and with factories resuming operations after the Spring Festival holiday, demand is expected to improve [1]

Group 1 - The shipping stocks have seen a significant increase, with COSCO Shipping Holdings (02866) rising by 6.09% to HKD 1.22, COSCO Shipping (01919) up by 2.82% to HKD 14.96, Orient Overseas International (00316) increasing by 2.52% to HKD 146.6, and Seaspan Corporation (01308) gaining 0.73% to HKD 33.22 [1] - On February 3, shipping groups Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk announced an adjustment to their shared shipping route, which will now reroute through the Red Sea and Suez Canal [1] - The "Maersk Detroit" vessel, which was expected to resume operations in the Red Sea, had to divert south around the Cape of Good Hope due to adverse weather conditions in the Western Mediterranean, causing delays [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Shenwan Hongyuan, the rerouting indicates that the resumption of operations in the Red Sea will not be realized in the short term [1] - As the market approaches early March, with factories resuming operations after the Spring Festival holiday, demand is expected to improve [1] - There is a focus on potential price increases and related actions from shipping companies post-holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco Great Wall Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159569) has shown a positive performance with a closing increase of 2.41% on February 24, 2024, and a trading volume of 74.30 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The fund was established on August 14, 2024, and has an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.08% [1]. - As of February 13, 2024, the fund's total shares stood at 331 million, with a total size of 472 million yuan, reflecting a 5.16% decrease in shares and a 1.14% increase in size since December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The cumulative trading amount over the last 20 trading days reached 1.159 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 57.97 million yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the cumulative trading amount for 31 trading days is 1.500 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 48.40 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Management and Performance - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with Gong Lili managing the fund since August 29, 2024, achieving a return of 48.54%, while Wang Yang has managed it since August 13, 2025, with a return of 5.74% [2]. - The fund's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others, with significant weightings in the portfolio [2][3].