[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Feb 2026 中国香港服装、鞋类及配饰设计 China (A-share) Hong Kong Apparel, Footwear & Acc Design 2026 大消费渠道专家会：伯希和维持高增长态势，始祖鸟和萨洛蒙持续拓圈 2026 Big Consumption Channel Expert Meeting: Pelliot Maintains High Growth Momentum, Arc'teryx and Salomon Continue to Expand Consumer Reach 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 林泽宇 Caleb Lin yy.kou@htisec.com caleb.zy.lin@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海 ...

Core Insights - Asics North America reported a 5.8% increase in net sales for fiscal 2025, reaching 141.1 billion yen (approximately $920 million), up from 135.0 billion yen (approximately $880 million) in 2024, driven by strong sales in the sportstyle category despite store closures and reduced e-commerce activities [1] Sales Performance by Region - Mexico experienced double-digit growth in Q4 of fiscal 2025, while the U.S. and Canada saw declines compared to the same period in 2024; however, all three regions reported growth for the full year 2025 [2] Strategic Business Actions - The North America business unit has implemented strategic actions, including infrastructure improvements and reduced promotional pricing, which have significantly enhanced brand credibility and profitability in the region [3] Wholesale and Direct-to-Consumer Growth - The wholesale channel in the U.S. achieved quarterly growth compared to Q4 2024, with a full-year growth of 30.8%; combined with direct-to-consumer channels, this contributed to a 5.6% sales growth for the full year 2025 [4] Specialty Trade Channel Performance - The run specialty trade channel reported strong double-digit growth compared to the previous year, with the NovaBlast shoe sales increasing over 53% in Q4 2024, supported by new product innovations like the MegaBlast shoe [5] Sportstyle Category Growth - The sportstyle category saw a remarkable 52.4% growth for the full year, with significant revenue increases from key strategic wholesale partners, driven by popular product styles such as Gel-1130, Gel-NYC, and Gel-Kayano shoes [6] Retail Channel Developments - Asics' Meatpacking store in NYC focused on omnichannel practices, while the OneAsics consumer loyalty program saw a 14% quarterly increase in registrants compared to the previous year, enhanced by unique consumer experiences and access to global events [7]

Japanese shoemaker Asics expects its India business to grow as much as 35% annually for the next five years as it gains favor with marathoners and recreational runners pursuing healthier lifestyles in the world’s most populous country. https://t.co/2RJYFr6GKi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Investment Commitment - IKEA plans to increase its investment in India to over Rs200 billion ($2.18 billion) over the next five years to expand its store footprint and enhance local sourcing [1] - The company aims to broaden its e-commerce presence following the launch of its first Indian outlet in Hyderabad in 2018 [1] E-commerce and Sales Strategy - Online ordering will be extended to four additional cities, including Chennai and Coimbatore, where IKEA currently lacks physical stores [2] - Digital sales account for over 30% of IKEA's India revenue, with a target to increase this share to 40% [2] - IKEA intends to double production for domestic sales and exports to €800 million ($930 million) [2] Market Context and Competitive Landscape - The expansion aligns with a broader trend of international brands increasing local manufacturing and sourcing in India to manage costs [3] - Other consumer-facing companies, such as Asics and VinFast Auto, are also enhancing local procurement to support domestic operations [3] - Tariff measures imposed by the US on certain Indian imports have prompted industries to explore alternative export markets, although IKEA's supplier base in India remains largely unaffected [4] Operational Adjustments - IKEA announced plans to close seven stores in China as part of an optimization exercise aimed at improving efficiency across its physical and digital channels [4][5]

Summary of the Conference Call on Japanese IP/Brands Industry Overview - The focus is on the Japanese IP (Intellectual Property) and consumer brands, which are characterized by high functionality, craftsmanship, and technology. Notable examples include Dragon Ball, Super Mario Bros., and Uniqlo's Heattech [2][3]. Core Insights - **Profit Pool Growth**: From FY15 to FY25E, the profit pool for selected Japanese IP/brands increased from ¥1.2 trillion to ¥2.4 trillion, with overseas exposure expanding 3.0 times from ¥0.4 trillion to ¥1.2 trillion, compared to a 1.6 times increase in domestic exposure [3][19]. - **Sustainable Growth Factors**: Key factors for sustainable growth in IP/brands include: 1. **IP/Brand Value**: Unique positioning and added value are crucial for monetization [30]. 2. **Value Chain Strengthening**: Diversification of the portfolio enhances monetization potential [31]. 3. **Consumer Experience**: Products that allow consumers to easily perceive functionality and quality have a higher probability of sustainable growth [22][41]. Investment Recommendations - **Highlighted Stocks**: The report recommends 11 Buy-rated stocks, including: - Asics - Food & Life Companies - Ryohin Keikaku - Fast Retailing - Sony Group - Nintendo - Recruit Holdings - Konami Group - Toyo Suisan - Kotobuki Spirits - Shiseido (upgraded from Neutral to Buy) [3][19]. Performance Disparities - Significant disparities in stock performance were noted, with Capcom's market cap growing approximately 11 times compared to Square Enix's 3.4 times. For brands, Asics and Kotobuki Spirits rose 5.5 times, while Calbee, Meiji HD, and Pola Orbis HD lagged at 0.6 times [3][19]. Earnings and Share Price Drivers - An analysis of 27 Japanese companies revealed that while some achieved sustained profit expansion, others experienced volatility. The three necessary factors for sustainable growth were identified as: 1. **Consumer Experience**: High functionality and quality products. 2. **Brand-Building Capabilities**: Effective communication and supply chain management. 3. **Market Share**: High market share can act as a tailwind for growth [20][21][22]. Financial Projections - Operating profits for the 27 companies are projected to grow significantly, with total operating profits expected to reach ¥2.4 trillion by FY25E, driven by increased overseas exposure [24][43]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include economic slowdowns, changes in consumer preferences, and increased competition, particularly in sectors like cosmetics where differentiation is challenging [38][46]. Conclusion - The Japanese IP and consumer brands are positioned for growth, driven by expanding overseas markets and strong brand values. However, companies must navigate challenges related to market dynamics and consumer preferences to sustain this growth trajectory [19][41].

Investment Highlights - Company is initiating coverage on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E for 2026 [1] - The global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth expected over the next five years [1] - Yue Yuen is the largest athletic footwear manufacturer globally, holding over 10% of shipment volume, and its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, is a leading retailer in Greater China [1] Business Model and Client Relationships - Company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, deeply binding with major international brands like Nike and Adidas, and maintaining long-term collaborations with Asics, New Balance, Salomon, and Arc'teryx [2] - The top five clients account for 80-90% of the manufacturing revenue, indicating a concentrated client base [2] - The company is ahead in global production capacity and has diversified its manufacturing bases [2] Market Conditions and Growth Prospects - Manufacturing business is expected to stabilize due to manageable inventory levels among overseas brands and accelerated product innovation, particularly from Nike [2] - Anticipated improvements in production capacity utilization and resolution of previous capacity ramp-up issues are expected to support revenue growth in the manufacturing segment [2] - The company is expected to achieve a dividend yield of 8.2% by 2026, providing a margin of safety for investors [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Current stock price corresponds to an 8.6x P/E for 2026, with a target price of HKD 19.46 indicating a 23% upside potential [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 15.97 and a fair value of HKD 19.99 [4]. Core Insights - The company is the world's largest sports shoe manufacturer, driven by both manufacturing and retail operations, with a potential performance turnaround expected [1][9]. - The manufacturing business is expected to see revenue and profitability improvements due to various factors, including a recovery in order placements from brand clients and a favorable market environment in 2026 [9]. - The retail business is actively pursuing multi-channel and refined operations, which are anticipated to lead to a performance rebound [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally, with a market share based on annual production [14]. - It has a significant workforce of 285,500 employees, with 265,500 in manufacturing and 20,700 in retail [14]. - The company achieved a revenue of USD 8.182 billion in FY2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2][14]. Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment contributed 68.7% of total revenue and 85.2% of profit in FY2024, with revenues of USD 5.621 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year [17]. - The average selling price (ASP) for shoes was USD 20.25, down 5.1% year-on-year due to a higher concentration of high-end products in previous years [17]. - The company has a diversified production base across several countries, with significant output from Indonesia, Vietnam, and China [15][17]. Retail Business - The retail segment, operated through the subsidiary BaoSheng International, generated USD 2.561 billion in FY2024, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [24]. - The company is optimizing its store network, reducing the number of direct-operated stores to 3,448 while improving average store size [24]. - The retail business is expected to benefit from improved discount rates and effective inventory management [9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.23, USD 0.26, and USD 0.28 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively [9]. - The report estimates a fair value of HKD 19.99 per share based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method [9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a historical increase of 2044.24% since its listing in 1992, although it has faced challenges in recent years due to external market conditions [46]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fluctuated between 7 and 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Huali Industrial Group [1][2][6] Core Insights - Brand orders diverged in 2025, with expectations for continued trends into 2026, but order growth is anticipated to rebound significantly [3][10] - The company is expected to see low single-digit order growth in 2025, driven primarily by brands like Adidas, New Balance, On Running, and Asics, while facing order pullbacks from Converse, Vans, and Puma due to high inventory levels [3][10] - For 2026, high-growth brands are expected to maintain strong performance, with overall order growth projected to recover to high single digits and 10% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 25.174 billion, RMB 27.108 billion, and RMB 29.904 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 7.7%, and 10.3% [6][13] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 3.388 billion, RMB 3.880 billion, and RMB 4.382 billion, with year-on-year growth of -11.8%, 14.5%, and 12.9% [6][13] Gross Margin and Capital Expenditure - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve sequentially, with forecasts of 22.1%, 23.2%, and 24.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][12] - Capital expenditure (Capex) is entering a downward trend, with a focus on efficiency and returns rather than aggressive capacity expansion [4][11]

Core Insights - Academy Sports + Outdoors is experiencing strong performance in the footwear segment, particularly in performance running shoes from brands like Nike, Brooks, Asics, and New Balance [1] - The athletic slide category has seen a significant resurgence, with double-digit growth driven by ultra-comfort options like Nike Reactx Rejuven8 and Adidas Adilette Comfort Slide [2] - The affordability of slides, priced around $30, appeals to consumers facing financial constraints, making them a popular choice [3] - The company is positioned well in the K-shaped economy, attracting both affluent customers and value-oriented consumers, as noted by Jefferies analyst Jonathan Matuszewski [4] - Promotions are influencing purchasing patterns, with sales aggregating around promotional events [5] - Anticipation for the next year's World Cup is expected to boost sales in specific categories, particularly soccer-related footwear and equipment [6]