港股市场内房股集体上涨，其中，融创中国涨超6%，龙光集团、华润置地涨超5%，越秀地产涨超4%， 新城发展、中国海外发展、万科企业、绿城中国、旭辉控股集团、中国金茂涨超3%。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in property stocks on February 4, with notable increases including Sunac China up over 6%, Longfor Group and China Resources Land up over 5%, and Yuexiu Property up over 4% [1] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for the purpose of providing affordable rental housing, targeting new citizens, young people, university graduates, and various talent groups [1] - The signing event for this initiative included cooperation agreements between the Shanghai branch of China Construction Bank and public rental housing companies in three districts, providing financial support for the acquisition work [1] Group 2 - Sunac China (01918) increased by 6.14% to a price of 1.210 with a total market value of 195.93 billion, showing a year-to-date decline of 7.63% [2] - Longfor Group (03380) rose by 5.93% to 1.430 with a market cap of 81.3 billion, reflecting a year-to-date drop of 20.11% [2] - China Resources Land (01109) saw a 5.21% increase to 31.880, with a market value of 2273.34 billion and a year-to-date gain of 17.21% [2] - Yuexiu Property (00123) increased by 4.68% to 4.700, with a market cap of 189.19 billion and a year-to-date rise of 18.69% [2] - New City Development (01030) rose by 3.92% to 2.650, with a market value of 187.24 billion and a year-to-date increase of 29.27% [2] - China Overseas Development (00688) increased by 3.79% to 14.520, with a market cap of 1589.2 billion and a year-to-date rise of 18.53% [2] - Vanke Enterprise (02202) saw a 3.37% increase to 3.680, with a market value of 439.05 billion and a year-to-date gain of 12.20% [2] - Greentown China (03900) rose by 3.27% to 11.370, with a market cap of 288.75 billion and a year-to-date increase of 34.24% [2] - CIFI Holdings (00884) increased by 3.19% to 0.097, with a market value of 16.61 billion and a year-to-date decline of 39.75% [2] - China Jinmao (00817) rose by 3.55% to 1.750, with a market cap of 236.47 billion and a year-to-date increase of 44.63% [2]

行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 02 月 04 日 房地产融资政策进入友好期，REITs 和定增将 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——房地产行业融资事件点评 《目前板块业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期 或将逐渐过去——房地产行业 2025 年业 绩预告分析及前瞻》 2026/02/01 《首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，优质商业 地产迎来价值重估——首批商业不动产 REITs 上报点评》 2026/01/31 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 房地产 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 事件： 点评： 开辟股权融资渠道 ⚫ 1）26 年 1 月 28 日，中房报报道，多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三 道红线"相关数据。 ⚫ 2）1 月 27 日，保利发展公告拟 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

格隆汇2月3日丨绿城中国(03900.HK)公告，于2026年2月3日，公司与中交集团订立2026年装饰及安装框 架协议，以规管集团向中交集团、其附属公司及╱或其联系人提供装饰及安装服务。2026年装饰及安装 框架协议的期限自2026年2月3日起至2028年12月31日止。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 持續關連交易 提供裝飾及安裝服務 本 集 團 不 時 獲 中 交 集 團、其 附 屬 公 司 及╱或 其 聯 繫 人 委 聘 為 有 關 中 交 集 團、 其 附 屬 公 司 及╱或 其 聯 繫 人 的 工 程 項 目 的 裝 飾 及 安 裝 服 務 供 應 商。為 精 簡 單 一 框 架 項 下 的 有 關 交 易，於2026年2月3日，本 公 司 與 中 交 集 團 訂 立2026年 裝 飾 及 安 裝 框 架 協 議，以 規 管 本 集 團 向 中 交 集 團、其 附 屬 公 司 及╱或 其 聯 繫 人 提 供 裝 飾 及 安 裝 服 務。2026年裝飾及安裝框架協議的期限自2026年2月3日 起 至2028年12月31日 止。 GREENTOWN CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 於 本 公 告 日 期，中 交 集 團 及 其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7] Core Insights - The new policy in Shanghai for acquiring second-hand housing aims to address the rental needs of new citizens, young people, and graduates, potentially stabilizing housing prices and boosting industry confidence [1][4] - The policy is expected to facilitate a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market by replacing new construction with stock acquisition, thus compressing the supply cycle for affordable rental housing [3] - The report highlights the importance of targeted housing supply strategies in key districts, focusing on small units and proximity to industrial areas to meet talent housing needs [2] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies with strong credit, good locations, and quality products, particularly those with quality reserves in Shanghai [5] - Specific companies highlighted include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, among others, which are expected to benefit from the new policy and market recovery [9][10] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the new policy is not the first of its kind in China, with previous examples in cities like Zhengzhou, but it is expected to have a more significant impact in Shanghai due to its status as a core first-tier city [4] - The anticipated market stabilization is supported by a relatively market-oriented pricing mechanism for affordable rental housing, which could lead to sustainable commercial outcomes [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Greentown Service and Longfor Group are expected to maintain strong performance metrics, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and stable cash flow management [11][12] - The report emphasizes the operational capabilities of companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are positioned to navigate market adjustments effectively [12][13]

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 5 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比上涨，万科债务展期获新进展 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,279.48 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,766.97 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | | 相对表现 | 2.4% | -8.3% | -11.0% | -7% 4% 15% 26% 25/0 ...

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

Group 1: Domestic Policy - The unified market policy will become an important policy line for 2026 and the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need to deepen and transcend "involution" [1][5][6] - The focus will be on governance of local government behavior and related reform measures, covering areas such as anti-monopoly, local government investment attraction, and tax system reform [5][6][27] - The policy's impact will extend from industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles to electricity, transportation, technology, and data [5][6] Group 2: Company Analysis - Yum China (09987.HK) - The Western fast food market is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3%, led by the hamburger segment, which holds a 70.6% market share [8][9] - Yum China maintains a strong market position with a 27.5% share, and the market concentration is high, with the top five companies accounting for 44% of the market [8][9] - The company has a large store network with a low closure rate, reaching 17,514 stores by Q3 2025, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2014 to 2024 [9] - The company has a strong local innovation capability, with 5.75 million members contributing to 57% of sales, and maintains healthy profit margins of 18.5% for KFC and 13.4% for Pizza Hut [9][10] - The company is expected to generate revenues of $11.7 billion, $12.4 billion, and $13.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of $900 million, $1 billion, and $1.1 billion respectively, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 18, and 16 times [8][10] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 24.7% year-on-year decline in sales, although the decline was less severe than in previous months [18][20] - The sales area also decreased by 29.5% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [18][20] - The top three companies in the industry achieved a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while other segments experienced significant declines [18][20] - Companies focused on first and second-tier cities showed a smaller decline in sales compared to those in lower-tier cities, with a difference of approximately 11% [19][20] - Recommendations include focusing on second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike and quality state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [20]