2026.02. 02 本文字数：1871，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 封图 | AI生成 Wind数据显示，截至目前已有65家A股上市房企发布业绩预告，其中去年预计实现盈利的房企仅16家，其余49家均出现不同程度的亏损，亏损房企数量 占比超七成。从"预亏"规模看，去年预计亏损超百亿的有5家，亏损规模较高的超八百亿。 在A股上市房企中，万科A目前亏损规模居首。该公司预计，2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损约820亿元，较上年同期亏损494.78亿元大幅扩 大；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损约800亿元，上年同期亏损453.94亿元。 除了房开结算规模下降、毛利率处于低位、资产计提减值等行业普遍因素，万科去年业绩预亏的原因还有：部分经营性业务扣除折旧摊销后整体亏损， 部分非主业财务投资出现亏损；部分大宗资产交易和股权交易价格低于账面值。 华夏幸福、绿地控股、华侨城A、金地集团四家房企，去年"预亏"规模都超过百元，期内预计归母净利润数值分别为-240亿元～-160亿元、-190亿元 ～-160亿元、-155亿元～-130亿元、-135亿元～-111亿元，部分房企已经实质性"资不抵债"。 ...

Core Insights - The overall performance forecast for real estate companies in 2025 indicates significant losses, with 49 out of 65 A-share listed companies expected to report losses, accounting for over 70% of the total [1][4] - Vanke A leads in projected losses, estimating a net profit loss of approximately 82 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the previous year's loss of about 49.48 billion yuan [1] - Other companies such as China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, and China Overseas Land & Investment also anticipate significant losses, with projections exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] Company Performance - Vanke A's projected net profit loss for 2025 is around 82 billion yuan, with a non-recurring loss of about 80 billion yuan, compared to previous losses of 49.48 billion yuan and 45.39 billion yuan respectively [1] - China Fortune Land Development expects a net profit loss between 24 billion and 16 billion yuan, while Greenland Holdings anticipates a loss between 19 billion and 16 billion yuan [2] - Poly Developments managed to maintain a slight profit, with a net profit of approximately 1.03 billion yuan, although this represents a 79.49% decrease year-on-year [3] Industry Overview - The total projected loss for the 49 companies is estimated to be between 202.6 billion and 235.2 billion yuan, indicating a severe downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall net profit for the 65 companies, including those expected to be profitable, is projected to be between -164 billion and -202.2 billion yuan, suggesting that the real estate sector may face losses exceeding 200 billion yuan [4] - The real estate market is still in a "de-inventory" phase, with pressures on sales and prices, although there are signs of stabilization in key cities [5]

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the real estate market, highlighting the significant debut of commercial real estate REITs, with the first batch of applications exceeding 32.1 billion RMB, accounting for 14% of the existing C-REITs market [5] - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy marks a pivotal shift, indicating a return to orderly market development and improved financing channels for real estate companies [16][20] - The report notes a strong year-on-year increase in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with new home transactions in 50 cities up 3.3% week-on-week and 37.2% year-on-year [5][9] Group 1: Central Policies - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy allows for a more market-oriented development of the real estate sector, which had previously constrained financing for weaker firms [16] - The central government is actively managing expectations and stabilizing the policy environment to facilitate a turning point in the real estate cycle [16] Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions saw a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, reflecting a recovery from last year's low base due to the Spring Festival [5][9] - Second-hand home transactions also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, driven by a favorable comparison to last year's figures [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new home supply has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 34.5%, which is unusual before the Spring Festival, suggesting increased developer confidence [5] - The second-hand market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in visits and transactions, indicating sustained demand [5] Group 4: Land Market Performance - The land market showed weaker performance, with total land sales in 300 cities amounting to 12.7 billion RMB, down 20% week-on-week and 69% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a supply of 7.93 million square meters, with a land absorption rate of 51%, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [5] Group 5: Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strong investment fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Jinmao and China Overseas, are leading the sector [5] - The property management sector also performed well, with a 2.6% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5] Group 6: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs composite return index rose by 0.36%, with 41 out of 78 REITs showing gains, particularly in the renewable energy and highway sectors [5]

环球市场动态 沃 什 被 提 名 新 任 联 储 主 席 股 票 周五A股涨跌不一，板块走势分化； 港股高开低走，大型科技股普遍走 弱；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪偏向 乐观；美股受特朗普提名沃什担任 美联储主席影响巨震，贵金属价格 暴跌。 $${\mathcal{H}}\;\;{\tilde{\chi}}\sqsubset\;I\;{\frac{\mathrm{{\hat{\mu}}}}{\left|\Phi\right|}}\;\;{\frac{\mathrm{{\hat{\mu}}}}{\left|\Phi\right|}}$$ 特朗普提名被视为立场相对鹰派的 沃什出任下一任美联储主席，上周 五美元大漲，贵金属近期凌厉涨势 逆转，黄金盘中创下 40 年来最大 跌幅，白银录得历史最大跌幅，抛 售潮波及更广泛的金属市场，伦敦 期铜大跌。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债收益率曲线趋陡。 特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席。 亚洲债市相对偏弱，利差走宽 1-3 个基点。本周将有季度再融资公告 和非农数据公布。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the need to build a modern financial system with a focus on a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a reasonable financial market structure, and effective financial supervision [2] - In 2025, the national public budget revenue is projected to be 21.6045 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024, with tax revenue increasing by 0.8% to 17.6363 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity, while the factory price index has risen above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 49.4 and 49.8, respectively, both showing a decrease from the previous month [3] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on consolidating the capital market's positive momentum and enhancing the adaptability of regulatory systems [4] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the capital market, improve the convenience and attractiveness of refinancing systems, and support the development of a modern industrial system [4] Group 4: International News - The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a partial government shutdown is expected due to the House of Representatives not being in session until February 2 [5] - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who has previously criticized quantitative easing and emphasized the need for closer collaboration between the Fed and the Treasury [6] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices have declined, with WTI crude down 0.32% to $65.21 per barrel, while natural gas prices increased by 13.9% to $4.416 per million British thermal units [7] Group 6: Financial Market Operations - On January 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 477.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net cash injection of 352.5 billion yuan for the day [8] - The overall funding environment remains stable, with the DR001 rate decreasing by 3.36 basis points to 1.328% [9] Group 7: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.50 basis points to 1.8100% [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price deviations, with certain bonds like "21 Vanke 04" dropping by 17.52% [13] Group 8: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices decline, with the China convertible bond index down by 1.73% on January 30 [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 93.272 billion yuan, an increase of 2.399 billion yuan from the previous trading day [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall allocation value of the convertible bond market has decreased, with only trading and gaming value remaining in the process, and the medium - to - long - term expected returns are low or negative [29]. - In 2025, the performance of pure - bond funds continued to weaken, while "fixed - income plus" funds had an advantage. They are entering a new development stage [30]. - In January, the industrial high - frequency data rebounded, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date shift. Policy - related impacts are still evident, but policy - based financial tools may improve the construction and infrastructure sectors. In the short term, it is difficult to expect total - volume monetary policies, and the second quarter may be a possible time for total - volume interest rate cuts [30]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds increased beyond the seasonal norm, but the number decreased. In the future, the yields of money market funds may continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down [31]. - Despite the interest rate reversal between China and Japan, global funds prefer low - interest - rate China due to factors such as exchange rates. China will eventually emerge from low inflation and enter a new cycle [31]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman may lead to a change in Fed policies. The overall orientation of monetary policy remains relatively loose, but in the medium term, the erosion of the Fed's independence may continue to reduce the intrinsic value of the US dollar [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous period and the same period last year. The Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the Non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, both showing a decline [1]. - In December 2025, the total social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. The market demand was insufficient, and the financial market was active [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio of silver futures contracts from February 3 [2]. - In 2025, the GDP data of 31 provinces in China was released. Tibet led the country in economic growth, driven by major infrastructure projects [2]. - The CME raised the trading margin requirements for gold and silver futures due to the sharp decline in precious metal prices. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman may lead to policy adjustments [3]. - The WTO ruled that the US clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act violated WTO rules [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The nomination of Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp decline in the global precious metal market. Spot silver, gold, platinum, and palladium all fell significantly. Some domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased [5]. - Some banks adjusted their gold accumulation businesses, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange took measures against abnormal trading in some funds [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - January 2026, the price of rebar reached a new high since late August 2025, rising 0.34% month - on - month [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In 2025, the national power market trading volume reached 6.64 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 130 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 84% [9]. - Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and taking measures against Canadian aircraft. India may reduce Russian oil imports [9]. - The EU plans to ban maritime services for Russian oil transportation as part of new sanctions [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since February 2, 2026, a 5% temporary import tariff rate has been implemented on whiskey [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will expire on Wednesday [13]. - On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 352.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, mainly due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [14]. - The Politburo emphasized the development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's article on building a financial power was published [14][15]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The UK Prime Minister visited China, and the two sides reached multiple cooperation agreements [16][17]. - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7%, and fiscal expenditure increased by 1%. The operating income of state - owned enterprises increased slightly, while the total profit decreased [17]. - Tax policies were adjusted, including changes to the VAT threshold for natural persons and clarification of VAT calculation methods [18]. - In 2025, Tibet led the country in economic growth, and many provinces planned to use local government bonds to acquire idle land [19]. - In January 2026, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities decreased, while the price of new homes increased in some cities [19]. - The China Banking Association issued guidelines for consumer loan collection. The issuance of refinancing special bonds for debt replacement accelerated, and local government explicit debt increased [19][20]. - Convertible bond funds performed well, while bond ETFs faced capital outflows. The US Senate passed an appropriation bill, but the government entered a partial shutdown [20][21]. - Japan was still under US Treasury monitoring, and some bonds were suspended or had changes in their transfer methods [21][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - On January 30, the Chinese bond market fluctuated. Interest - rate bond yields changed little, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. Money market rates showed different trends [24]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some Vanke bonds rose, and some other bonds fell. The convertible bond index declined [24][25]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. Most non - US currencies depreciated [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the convertible bond market, "fixed - income plus" funds, monetary policies, and money - market funds [29][30][31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 2, 143 bonds will be listed, 124 bonds will be issued, 85 bonds will require payment, and 399 bonds will pay principal and interest [33]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - As of January 31, 3057 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts. 53.6% of them were optimistic. Industries such as non - ferrous metals and new energy showed good performance [34].

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the performance of major property developers in January 2026 and expectations for the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - Contracted sales for the 25 major developers tracked fell **32% year-on-year (y-y)** in January 2026, despite a low base due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect [1][2]. - The top 50 and top 100 developers experienced declines of **26% and 29% y-y**, respectively, in January, compared to **-22% and -29%** in December [2]. Divergence in Developer Performance - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) outperformed other developers with milder declines. Notable performers included: - **China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI)**: +20% y-y - **Jinmao**: +14% y-y - **CR Land**: +0.4% y-y - Conversely, developers like **Sunac**, **Shimao**, **CIFI**, **Midea RE**, and **GZ R&F** reported declines exceeding **50% y-y** [3]. Market Outlook - The physical property market is expected to continue its downtrend in 2026-27, with projected declines of **8% and 6% y-y** in secondary home prices [4]. - A meaningful nationwide housing policy is anticipated to remain muted in the coming months, contributing to fragile buyer sentiment and increased inventory [4]. Investment Sentiment - Recent sentiment-driven outperformance in the China property industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of a sector pullback as results season approaches [5]. - The focus remains on quality names with credible self-help stories, such as: - **CR Land (1109.HK)** - **Seazen (601155.SS)** - **C&D International (1908.HK)**, which is seen as a consolidator in the residential market with optimized landbanks [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of continued challenges for developers, particularly those with weaker brand recognition and fewer saleable resources [5][6].

Summary of China Property Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Key Focus**: Market expectations, policy changes, sales performance, and investment opportunities Core Insights 1. **Investor Positioning**: Many investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, and overseas have been underweight in the China property sector, while sectors like metals, mining, tech, and healthcare are well-owned. There is a shift towards increasing exposure in the property sector due to fear of missing out on potential recovery [1][2] 2. **Sales and Investment Trends**: Secondary sales improved in January, with a month-on-month increase compared to December. However, new home sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 30% expected to persist into Q1 2026 due to last year's high base [2][4] 3. **Policy Easing Expectations**: Positive market sentiment in January was driven by expectations of policy easing, including VAT cuts and adjustments to down payment requirements for commercial properties. The easing of the "three red lines" policy indicates that deleveraging targets may have been met [2][15] 4. **Opportunistic Window**: There is a belief that an opportunistic window may exist from January to March before the National People's Congress meeting and FY25 earnings reports, suggesting potential for strategic investments during this period [2] 5. **Stock Picks**: Recommended stocks include China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI), Jinmao, and Greentown, which are expected to benefit from land acquisition growth and ample saleable resources in 2026. CR Land is noted for its strong fundamentals but is already well-owned [3] 6. **Secondary Market Activity**: Secondary transaction volumes improved to approximately 26,038 units in the week ending January 25, 2026, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase. This is seen as a positive sign for market confidence [3][9] 7. **New Home Sales Performance**: New home sales increased by 15% week-on-week but are still down approximately 30% year-on-year. The primary sales trend remains uncertain and is not yet sustainable [4][11] 8. **Land Acquisition Trends**: Significant increases in land acquisition costs were noted for several companies, with Jinmao seeing a 78% increase year-on-year. In contrast, Vanke and Longfor reported substantial declines in land acquisition values [17] Additional Important Points - **Policy Support**: Recent supportive policies include lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property mortgages and extending tax refund policies for home buyers [15][16] - **Market Sentiment**: The market's positive response to policy changes indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the property sector, despite ongoing challenges in new home sales [2][4] - **Valuation Insights**: The sector's valuations are being closely monitored, with recommendations varying from buy to neutral based on individual company fundamentals [20] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting both opportunities and ongoing challenges.

30 January 2026 | 5:15PM CST Equity Research China Property: 3RL removal not new, but raise market expectations on timely policy support to strengthen YTD positive momentum On Jan 28th, onshore news reported that multiple property developers (spanning SOE/POE entities of stable/distressed operating conditions) confirmed that central regulators no longer require monthly submission of "Three-Red-Lines" ("3RL") indicator data. Our conversations with a couple of developers indicate that such monthly reporting h ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. is projected to incur a net profit loss of approximately 82 billion yuan in 2025, following a loss of 49.48 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a total loss of 131.48 billion yuan over two years [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of approximately 82 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 49.48 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be a loss of about 80 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 45.39 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of approximately 6.89 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 4.17 yuan per share in the previous year [2]. Reasons for Loss - The significant decline in the settlement scale of real estate development projects and low gross profit margins are primary reasons for the losses. The profits from real estate development mainly correspond to projects sold in 2023 and 2024, with high land acquisition costs leading to a substantial decrease in total gross profit [2]. - Increased credit impairment and asset impairment provisions due to heightened business risk exposure [2]. - Overall losses in some operational businesses after deducting depreciation and amortization, along with losses from non-core financial investments [2]. - Prices of certain bulk asset transactions and equity transactions were below book value [2]. Operational Highlights - The company delivered 117,000 housing units during the reporting period, and the revenue from operational services remained stable [3]. - The company has actively promoted cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures in its development business, achieving a continuous decline in management expenses for two consecutive years [3]. - Despite these efforts, the company continues to face severe challenges, and operational performance is expected to remain under pressure [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to improve operations through strategic focus, standardized operations, and technological empowerment, optimizing business layout and structural adjustments to enhance development and operational capabilities across multiple scenarios [3]. - As of January 30, 2026, Vanke's total assets were 1,136.595 billion yuan, and net assets were 175.756 billion yuan, representing declines of 11.64% and 13.28% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The closing price of Vanke A shares was 4.88 yuan per share, with a total market value of 58.222 billion yuan [4].