Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to set records for passenger volume and flight operations, driven by a combination of family visits, student holidays, and tourism demand [1][2] - Domestic flight bookings have increased by approximately 5% year-on-year, while international flight bookings have risen by about 7% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - On the first day of the Spring Festival travel period, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) projected 19,080 flights and 2.19 million passengers [1] - Eastern Airlines reported a significant increase in passenger numbers, with over 420,000 travelers expected on the first day of the Spring Festival [3] - Popular domestic routes include those to Harbin, Changchun, Sanya, and Kunming, with seat occupancy rates exceeding 85% [4] Group 2: International Travel Trends - International routes to destinations such as Paris, Madrid, and London have seen occupancy rates above 90% [4] - The demand for Southeast Asian destinations remains high, with airlines increasing flights to locations like Singapore and Bali [7] - There has been a notable increase in foreign tourists visiting China for the Spring Festival, with significant growth in visitors from countries like Argentina and the Netherlands [7] Group 3: Travel Capacity and Operations - Airlines are ramping up capacity to meet the surge in demand, with Hainan Airlines increasing its capacity by approximately 7% compared to the previous year [5] - Major airlines are deploying wide-body aircraft on key routes to accommodate the increased passenger volume [5] - The peak travel period is expected to begin on February 10, with significant increases in flight and passenger numbers anticipated [8][9] Group 4: Pricing Trends - Flight prices are expected to fluctuate, with the lowest prices occurring around February 16, following the initial travel rush [11] - Travelers can save on ticket prices by adjusting their travel dates, with potential savings of up to 30% for certain routes if booked strategically [11]

www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 10 | 联络人 作者 企业评级部 钟 婷 027-87339288 tzhong@ccxi.com.cn 吴亚婷 027-87339288 ytwu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 | 贺文俊 | 027-87339288 | | --- | --- | | | wjhe@ccxi.com.cn | | 余 璐 | 027-87339288 | | | lyu@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 行业展望 航空运输行业 中国航空运输行业展望，2026 年 2 月 中诚信国际认为，短期来看，受行业供给端长期低增速影响， 航空客运在完成三年"先国内、后国际" 的总量快速恢复后，将 步入量质并举的发展阶段，而航空货运市场则处于机遇与调整 并存的发展局面。 中国航空运输行业的展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为，未来 12~18 个月该行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 经营端，从外部竞争来看，2025 年以来 ...

Group 1: Spring Festival Travel Trends - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a record 9.5 billion trips, with self-driving accounting for about 80% of the total [1] - The average travel days per person during the Spring Festival is projected to reach 5.9 days, an increase of 1.1 days compared to last year [1] - There is a notable trend of travelers opting for "city hopping" during the festival, with flight bookings during the holiday period increasing by 55% year-on-year [4][5] Group 2: Transportation Capacity and Operations - National railways are expected to transport 540 million passengers, with a daily average of 13.48 million, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [2] - Airlines are planning to operate over 126,000 flights during the Spring Festival, with China Southern Airlines alone executing over 109,000 domestic flights [3] - The introduction of C919 aircraft by airlines is highlighted as a significant development, with Eastern Airlines deploying 14 C919 jets for nearly 50 daily flights, marking a more than 50% increase in flight volume [3] Group 3: Accommodation and Tourism Preferences - There is a significant increase in hotel bookings during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 71%, peaking on the third day of the new year [5] - The demand for vacation rentals, particularly for family-oriented accommodations like villas, has surged, with bookings increasing by 48% week-on-week since January [5][6] - Tourists are increasingly seeking cultural experiences, with searches for traditional events like lantern festivals and folk performances rising by 117% [6] Group 4: Travel Behavior and Preferences - The trend of "slow travel" and deep experiences is driving a shift in travel consumption, with a notable increase in self-driving trips, which account for over 85% of surrounding travel bookings [7] - The peak traffic volume on highways during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 71 million vehicles per day, with an increase in the use of electric vehicles [8] - There is a shift in group travel dynamics, with a trend towards smaller, more customized tour groups, reflecting a desire for flexibility among travelers [9]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.73% on February 2, with Juneyao Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance: - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.48, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 1.94 million shares and a turnover of 1.08 billion yuan - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.26, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 924,400 shares and a turnover of 680 million yuan - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.46, down 3.86% with a trading volume of 133,600 shares and a turnover of 199 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 24.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [3][4] - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors, while Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 23.46 million yuan [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and experienced a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and saw a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for Chinese airlines in 2025 indicates a trend of "significantly reduced losses, some airlines turning profitable, and accelerated profit differentiation" [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Forecast - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines have turned profitable, contributing significantly to the sector's profit recovery, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines remain in the loss zone, with China Eastern's losses narrowing [1][2]. - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are the core contributors to profit recovery, while Huaxia Airlines continues to show growth, reflecting the relative advantages of regional routes and operational flexibility [2][3]. Group 2: Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q4 2025, the industry remains under pressure with losses prevailing, but most airlines show significant year-on-year improvements, indicating a continued recovery trend despite seasonal profitability pressures [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand remains a key variable for ticket price recovery and profit improvement, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow moderately due to normalized consumer travel and enhanced leisure tourism [4]. - The supply constraints and cost pressures are likely to amplify profit elasticity, with slow aircraft deliveries maintaining capacity control and policies aimed at reducing disorderly competition stabilizing revenue quality [4]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The top picks include Hainan Airlines (600221.SH) and Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), with a focus on China National Aviation (601111.SH, 00753), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [5].

Core Viewpoint - During the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, the company aims to enhance passenger experience through precise capacity allocation, service upgrades, and product innovations, expecting to operate approximately 18,000 flights and carry around 2.9 million passengers [1][8]. Group 1: Capacity and Route Adjustments - The company is focusing its capacity on popular travel routes, with increased flight frequencies to destinations such as Changbai Mountain, Harbin, Sanya, Beihai, and Xishuangbanna [3]. - Specific route adjustments include increasing flights from Shanghai to Changbai Mountain to 3 daily, Harbin to 5 daily, and Sanya to 5 daily, with some flights operated by wide-body aircraft for enhanced comfort [3]. - International routes to Southeast Asia, including Hanoi, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur, will also see increased frequency, ensuring at least one daily flight on these routes [3]. Group 2: Service Enhancements and Innovations - The company is upgrading its service from "smooth travel" to "pleasant travel experience" by optimizing ground services and retraining cabin crew to improve emergency response and service friendliness [4]. - A new "Member Peace of Mind Refund" service allows members to cancel tickets without fees up to 12 hours before departure, significantly extending the previous 2-hour limit [4]. - The introduction of the "Reverse Reunion 2 Flight Card" product caters to off-peak travel trends, allowing members to redeem flights between Shanghai and various cities before and after the Spring Festival [5]. Group 3: Brand and Customer Engagement - The "Pet Travel" service has been expanded to include more routes and relaxed restrictions on certain dog breeds, along with flexible policies for pet health certificates during the holiday period [7]. - The company has revamped its airport lounges with a festive theme and introduced a new brand mascot, "Jibao Dengdeng," to enhance emotional connections with passengers [7]. - The mascot, designed as a lively pony with a detachable mini suitcase, aims to convey warmth and companionship during travel [9]. Group 4: Overall Strategy and Commitment - The company is committed to enhancing its comprehensive support capabilities and travel experience through a multi-faceted approach, aligning with its brand philosophy of "Heartfelt Fortune, Auspicious Life" [8]. - The focus remains on operational refinement, humanized service, and youthful branding while ensuring safety and contributing to the overall value enhancement of the civil aviation industry [8].

北京商报讯（记者 关子辰 牛清妍）2月2日，记者从吉祥航空获悉，春运期间吉祥航空及旗下九元航空预计执行航 班约1.8万班次，承运旅客约290万人次。 国际及地区航线上，吉祥航空通过提升飞机利用率、合理增开夜间航班等方式，确保上海至河内、曼谷、吉隆 坡、槟城等东南亚主要航线每日至少一班；新开通的上海—斗湖（仙本那）航线则维持每周三班的稳定运营。此 外，上海—巴厘岛、上海—新加坡等需求旺盛的航线也投入了宽体机执飞。 吉祥航空春运机票预售数据显示，旅客出行偏好鲜明，地域特征明显。 国内方面，"冰雪游"与"暖冬游"持续引领出行风向，长白山、哈尔滨等北方冰雪目的地以及三亚、北海等南方温 暖海滨城市的客流显著攀升。西双版纳、南宁等地部分航线在春节高峰时段已接近售罄。国际方面，泰国、新加 坡、越南、印尼巴厘岛等东南亚目的地市场需求稳健增长。 为高效应对客流高峰，吉祥航空对整体运力进行系统化调配与加密安排。国内热门旅游航线方面，上海—长白山 增至每日3班；上海—哈尔滨达到每日5班，部分班次由宽体机执飞；上海—三亚加密至每日5班，其中每日两班从 虹桥机场起飞并使用宽体机执飞；上海—西双版纳增至每日3班；上海—北海增至每日2班。 ...

此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].