集运指数（欧线）观点： 悲观情绪修复，宽幅震荡 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：悲观情绪修复，宽幅震荡 12月周均运力32.1万TEU/周，空班数量4艘，加班船1艘。除达飞 FAL3 52周船期提前至51周、无其他变化。 1月（12月29日-2月1日）待定航次从6艘减少至3艘，空班数量维持1艘不变，周均运力上修至32.2万TEU/周（未计入3艘待定航次运力）。主要变化在于：①MSC 第3、5周待定航次确认为正常派船；②达飞第4周FAL3由待定暂时计为正常派船，达飞官网显示由"CMA CGM CAURO"虚拟船名执行，船期中统计为18000TEU，后续保 持动态跟踪。此外，中远AEU3 2025年51周~2026年3周船期延误较多。整体而言，1月周均运力达32.2万TEU/周，运力水平不低，略高于年中旺季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of ultra-large vessels in 2025 and 2026 is relatively small, but it will be greater in 2027 and 2028. In 2026, it is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. For 17,000+ TEU ships, it is expected to deliver 240,000 TEU (10 ships) in 2026, 838,000 TEU (39 ships) in 2027, 1.603 million TEU (79 ships) in 2028, and 1.215 million TEU (60 ships) in 2029 [10]. - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. In normal years, from week 1 to about week 15, the freight rate is in a seasonal downward phase; from week 15 to about week 34, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase; from week 34 to about week 42, it is in a seasonal oscillating downward phase; from week 42 to week 53, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase. The seasonal pattern of freight rates has a strong fit with the monthly container trade volume trend in the Far East - Europe region, indicating that this variety is priced at the margin of the demand side under the condition of a certain supply [11]. - In 2026, two uncertain factors may disrupt the shipping market. First, whether the China - EU trade game will affect China - EU trade. Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly, and as of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures. Second, pay attention to the possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise, putting pressure on freight rates [12]. Summary by Directory 2025 Shipping Market Operation Review 1.1 Spot Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, among the 13 routes statistics by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 11 routes saw price declines, with the annual declines of the Shanghai - South America, Shanghai - West America, Shanghai - East America, and Shanghai - Europe routes exceeding 50%. Three routes saw price increases, with the Shanghai - Persian Gulf route having the largest increase, exceeding 19% [17]. - As of November 24, the SCFIS European route has dropped 53.4% to 1,639.37 points since the beginning of the year, and the SCFIS West America route has dropped 56.74% to 1,107.85 points [20][21]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, major container shipping companies continued to try to support the price of the Far East - Northern Europe route. For example, MSC issued price increase letters several times from September to November [26]. 1.2 Futures Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts was 72,203 lots, and the total trading volume was 34,443 lots. The total trading volume since the beginning of 2025 was 17.193 million lots, and the total funds in all contracts were about 1.814 billion yuan [31][32]. Container Shipping Market Supply Chain Tracking 2.1 Container Ship Diversion: The Suez Canal May Resume Operation in 2026 - Since November 19, 2023, the Houthi armed organization has attacked and intercepted merchant ships in the Red Sea, causing the spill - over of the Palestine - Israel conflict. Subsequently, many international shipping giants such as Maersk announced the suspension of the Red Sea route. The current situation of container ship diversion continues, with the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and reaching the Gulf of Aden remaining at a low level. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal on November 21 was only 4.21 (7 - day average), and the daily passing capacity was about 13,000 TEU. The number of container ships reaching the Gulf of Aden (7 - day average) was about 8.86, and the daily passing capacity was about 20,100 TEU. Due to the diversion of container ships, the number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly, with the 7 - day average passing number being about 19.43, compared with the previous daily passing center of about 6 - 7 [39]. - Recently, Egypt has actively promoted liner companies to resume using the Suez Canal. Egyptian officials have held meetings with major shipping companies to discuss the return of global shipping to the Suez Canal route [40]. 2.2 Global Supply Chain: Supply Chain Efficiency Continues to Recover - In October, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 42.56% (an increase of 10.09% compared with the beginning of the year), approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rate of the Asia - Europe route in October was 35.24% (an increase of 11.61% compared with the beginning of the year), the punctuality rate of the Asia - West America route was 54.61% (an increase of 28.22% compared with the beginning of the year), and the punctuality rate of the Asia - East America route was 35.18% (an increase of 11.73% compared with the beginning of the year) [52]. - The overall port congestion pressure is relatively small. As of November 21, 2025, the congested capacity of global container ships was 10.39 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the total container capacity. The congested capacity of ports in the East America was 0.71 million TEU, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the congested capacity of ports in the West America was 0.55 million TEU, at a relatively neutral position [62]. Container Shipping Market Supply Side 3.1 Global Supply: Annual Container Ship Deliveries Remain at a High Level - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of outstanding orders for container ships was 1,109, with a total capacity of 10.458 million TEU, a new high since statistics began [80]. - From January to October 2025, shipping companies signed 467 new shipbuilding contracts, with a total capacity of 3.636 million TEU [83]. - In 2024, 478 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.91 million TEU. From January to October 2025, 222 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.822 million TEU [85][87]. - From January to October 2025, 11 container ships were dismantled, with a total capacity of 6,000 TEU. The average age of container ships in service has increased from 10 years in 2010 to about 13.82 years, and the average age of dismantled container ships has increased from 18.78 years in 2016 to 30.33 years in 2024 [89]. - Considering container ship orders, deliveries, and dismantling, the year - on - year growth rate of container ship capacity was about 10.08% in 2024, 6.8% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026, and 6.2% in 2027. As of the end of October 2025, the number of existing container ships was 6,995, with a total capacity of 32.526 million TEU, and the year - on - year growth rate of capacity was 7.3% [98]. 3.2 Ultra - large Ship Supply: The Supply Pressure of Ships over 12,000+ TEU is High in 2027 and 2028 - As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships with a capacity of 1.918 million TEU have been delivered, including 1.072 million TEU (71 ships) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships and 254,000 TEU (12 ships) of 17,000+ TEU ships [104][105]. - It is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships in 2026, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. Overall, the supply pressure of ultra - large ships is relatively small in 2025 and 2026, but greater in 2027 and 2028 [110][111]. Container Shipping Market Demand Side 4.1 Overseas Economy: The Downward Risk of the European Economy has been Eliminated - In October 2025, the European economy showed signs of mild recovery and structural differentiation. The service industry performed strongly, the manufacturing industry stabilized, consumption and trade improved, and inflation was generally under control. However, investment confidence remained weak, construction growth slowed, and fiscal pressure increased. The overall economy still faces certain challenges, and the stability of the continuous recovery of internal and external demand needs to be monitored [117]. 4.2: European Imports Perform Well, while China's Exports to the United States Face Setbacks - From January to September 2025, the total container trade volume between the Far East and Europe was 14.81 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to Europe totaled 461.1 billion US dollars, a 7.61% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. - From January to September 2025, the container trade volume between the Far East and the United States was 15.48 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to the United States were 352.3 billion US dollars, a 17.72% decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. Uncertainty Factors 5.1 China - EU Trade Game - Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly. As of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures, including anti - dumping, public procurement restrictions, and technical trade barriers, covering a wide range of product areas from traditional manufacturing to high - value - added industries [126]. - In the anti - dumping field, the EU has maintained a high - frequency rhythm of initiating investigations and making rulings, with increasingly severe measures. In the public procurement field, the EU activated the International Procurement Instrument (IPI) in June, targeting the medical device industry. In the technical trade barrier field, the EU's New Battery Regulation came into effect in August, posing challenges to Chinese battery exporters [126][127]. 5.2 Suez Canal Resumption Possibility - The cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip in October 2025 provided the possibility for the resumption of the Suez Canal. However, the progress of the cease - fire agreement has encountered great resistance, and the situation remains fragile [131]. - After the cease - fire agreement in October 2025, the Suez Canal Authority took a series of measures to resume canal traffic, including holding meetings with shipping companies, implementing flexible pricing and discounts, and improving operational and service capabilities [132]. - Major shipping companies have different attitudes towards the resumption of the Suez Canal. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd are still cautious, while CMA CGM is more active. Hapag - Lloyd has prepared a "Red Sea resumption contingency plan" and anticipates that the key window period will occur after the Spring Festival [134]. Strategy Outlook 6.1 Obvious Seasonal Pattern of Container Shipping Prices - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. The reasons for the seasonal pattern are related to domestic holidays, industrial production cycles, and Western holidays [145][146]. 6.2 Gradual Recovery of Capacity Supply, with the Weekly Average Capacity Reaching a New High in the Same Period - Since November 19, 2023, due to the Houthi armed attacks in the Red Sea, many shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route, and ships on the Asia - Europe route had to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the voyage and reducing the number of voyages a ship can perform per year. With the delivery of new ships, the short - term capacity shortage caused by the non - operation of the Suez Canal is gradually being made up. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months between China and Europe exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise [149][150]. 6.3 Freight Rates (Small Containers) between 2017 - 2019 Ranged from 600 - 1200 US Dollars - After the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping in August 2016 and the development of shipbuilding technology, the container shipping industry, especially the Asia - Europe route, entered a new stable state in 2017. If the Suez Canal resumes operation, the supply of the container shipping industry will increase significantly, and the industry may return to a stage with narrower volatility and limited freight rate highs [152]. 6.4 Future Contract Market Outlook: The Container Shipping Market May Return to "Normal", with Narrower Fluctuations and High Freight Rates under Pressure - December contract: The freight rate in December is being continuously adjusted. The delivery and settlement price of the December contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The freight rate center in the first half of December has been revised down to around 2,100 - 2,200 US dollars/FEU. Attention should be paid to whether there will be another price increase in the second half of December [158]. - 2602 contract: There may be a large expected difference in the February contract. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026, which basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - support period of shipping companies is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may have the same valuation as the December contract [159]. - More distant contracts: If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the effective capacity supply will increase, putting pressure on freight rates. The valuation of more distant contracts may be revised down. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate ranged from 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to the SCFIS ranging from about 600 - 1400 points [162].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's antitrust regulators are set to investigate the acquisition of a significant portion of the global port business of CK Hutchison Holdings by BlackRock and MSC, particularly focusing on the Spanish segment of the deal [1] Group 1: Regulatory Investigation - The investigation may lead regulators to require concessions from BlackRock and MSC for the transaction to be approved [1] - The European Commission will conclude its preliminary review of the deal by December 10, after which a full investigation will commence [1] Group 2: Transaction Details - The deal involves MSC's subsidiary Terminal Investment Limited Holding (TiL) and BlackRock jointly acquiring control of CK Hutchison's operations at the Port of Barcelona [1] - CK Hutchison plans to sell 80% of its $22.8 billion port business, which spans 43 ports across 23 countries [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - There have been reports since July about China COSCO Shipping Group's interest in joining the acquisition consortium, with implications that if COSCO cannot participate, China may not regulate the approval of the transaction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global freight market is experiencing a complex situation characterized by a "low-level rebound" in freight rates, with major shipping companies announcing rate increases for various international routes starting December 2025, driven by geopolitical conflicts, climate factors, and strategic adjustments by shipping companies [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Increases Announced - Major shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced significant rate increases for various routes, with MSC raising rates for 20-foot and 40-foot containers to $1860 and $3100 respectively for Northern Europe routes, and CMA CGM setting rates up to $6300 for 40-foot containers from Far East to the Mediterranean and North Africa [2][3]. - The rate increases are not driven by traditional demand but are a result of external disturbances from geopolitical issues and climate change, alongside shipping companies' strategies to adjust capacity and restore profitability [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - The ongoing Red Sea crisis and drought-related restrictions in the Panama Canal have led to reduced shipping capacity and efficiency, with some routes experiencing delays of over 10 days [3][4]. - The expectation of tariffs in the U.S. market has prompted some companies to expedite shipments, temporarily increasing demand for shipping capacity [4]. Group 3: Impact on E-commerce and Trade - The rate increases are particularly impactful for the cross-border e-commerce sector, where rising costs are squeezing profit margins, with some routes seeing increases of over 40% in December [5][6]. - The logistics challenges, including port congestion and tight capacity, may lead to delays, stock shortages, and increased customer complaints, further complicating the operational landscape for businesses [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - If the current trend of rising freight rates continues into 2026, it could significantly affect low-margin industries such as furniture and toys, leading to potential shifts in global supply chains towards countries like Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia [6]. - The shipping market may enter a phase of "high freight rate normalization," with sustained high rates likely to increase overall logistics costs, ultimately impacting consumer prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock and MSC's acquisition of most of CK Hutchison's global port operations is facing scrutiny from EU antitrust regulators, particularly concerning the Spanish segment of the deal [1] Group 1 - The deal involves a significant portion of CK Hutchison's global port operations [1] - EU antitrust regulators are set to investigate the Spanish part of the acquisition [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention is focused on Maersk's quotes in the second week of December and whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of December [1] - The December contract trading emphasizes the rhythm, with expectations and reality interacting, and the valuation gradually becoming clear. Shipping companies will adjust the supply - side to keep freight rates at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter to prepare for next year's long - term agreement negotiations [3] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages. The delivery and settlement time of the contract is determined, and its price may reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may reach parity with the December contract [4][5] - The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no current arbitrage opportunities [7] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents I. Futures Prices - As of November 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts is 71,641.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 21,265.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1,568.60, 1,142.10, 1,358.20, 1,488.10, 1,110.00, and 1,779.70 respectively [6] II. Spot Prices - On November 21, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1367 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1645 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2384 dollars/FEU. On November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1107.85 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.9184 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 253,800 TEU [6] - The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of November is 343,700 TEU, with capacities of 336,200/351,300 TEU in weeks 48 and 49 respectively. The average monthly weekly capacity in December is 303,900 TEU, with capacities of 305,800/278,000/302,600/329,100 TEU in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 respectively. The average monthly weekly capacity in January is 310,100 TEU, with capacities of 346,900/293,400/299,000/301,300 TEU in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. There is 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, an explosion occurred in the remaining Israeli forces in the northwest of Gaza City, and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation stated that its emergency mission in Gaza was "completed" [3] V. Demand and European Economy No specific information provided regarding demand and European economy in the content that meets the requirements

集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡整理，暂时观望 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：震荡整理，暂时观望 供应 12月空班数量4艘，已无待定航次，加班船1艘，周均运力仍维持31.6万TEU/周。过去一周的变化在于：①马士基52周增派加班船 MAERSK EINDHOVEN （+13,000TEU，挂靠宁波，不挂靠上海）；②达飞51周FAL3航线由正常派船（CMA CGM CHAMPS ELYSEES）改为空班（-23,000TEU）；③MSC 51周Britannia航线由待 定改为正常派船（MSC ANGOLA，+14,000TEU）；④51周FE3航线ONE INFINITY调配至50周FE4航线。旬度级别来看，上半月（49-50周）平均运力32.4万TEU，显著高于 下半月（51-52周）平均运力30.7万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In December, the contract trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term agreement negotiations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of price - holding in December. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately until delivery. The bottom support of the 12 - month contract is rising [4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption - of - navigation expectation. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January 2026. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. Continuous tracking is needed [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotes and increases from November to December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from week 48 to December; HPL - SPOT's price also rose significantly from the second half of November to December. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also had similar price - increase trends [1][2]. - Geopolitical situation: Israeli military air - raids in Gaza and Lebanon have caused casualties and tensions, which may impact the shipping market [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - In November, the remaining 3 - week average weekly capacity was 275,800 TEU, and in December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 313,000 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December, with different distributions among alliances [3]. 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately. The price center in the second half of November was around $2,100 - 2,200/FEU, and shipping companies have issued price - increase letters for December. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in the first half of December and whether there will be another price - increase announcement in the second half of December [4]. 3.4 2026 February Contract - The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and the delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, it basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain, and follow - up attention should be paid to price - increase announcements in late November and mid - December [5][6]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Prices - As of November 19, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 71,070 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 23,971 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied. The SCFI prices of different routes were also provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe route price of $1,417/TEU on November 14 [6]. 3.6 Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the container shipping market, including shipping prices, capacity supply, contract trading, and potential investment opportunities and risks. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of price increases in December and the potential for significant differences in the February 2026 contract. The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [4][5][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk had a 48 - week price of 1230/2060 and a December first - week price of 1600/2500. HPL - SPOT's 12 - month price shows a significant increase from the second half of November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas rejects the UN Security Council's resolution on Gaza, and resistance against Israel remains a concern, which may impact the shipping market [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In November, the weekly average capacity was 27.58 million TEU, and in December, it is 31.3 million TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [3]. Contract Analysis - **December Contracts**: The trading of December contracts is about rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term contract negotiations. Currently, the price center in the second half of November is around 2100 - 2200 dollars/FEU, and the bottom support of December contracts is rising [4]. - **February 2026 Contracts**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed shipping. The delivery and settlement time is determined, and its price is likely to reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026 [5]. Shipping Capacity and Delivery - **Container Ship Delivery**: 2025 is a major year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12000 - 16999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [8]. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of November 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 70,638.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 38,037.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1678.10 [6]. - **Spot Data**: On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1417 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1823 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2600 dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1238.42 points [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined, and the valuation gradually becoming clear. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price - support measures in December. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next long - term contract negotiation [4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. The delivery and settlement time of the February contract is determined. If the price - support period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at parity with the December contract [5]. - The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of November 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 72,346.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 57,165.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1726.00, 1187.70, 1403.90, 1521.10, 1118.00, and 1792.30 respectively [6]. II. Spot Price - On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price was 1417 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1823 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2600 US dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1238.42 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the remaining three - week average weekly capacity was 275,800 TEU, with capacities of 278,700, 269,000, and 279,600 TEU in weeks 47, 48, and 49 respectively. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 313,000 TEU, with capacities of 333,000, 270,000, 314,200, and 334,700 TEU in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 respectively [3]. - In November, there were a total of 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN (4 by MSC/PA Alliance, 1 by Gemini Alliance, 5 by OA Alliance, and 1 TBN of OA Alliance is expected to turn into a blank sailing). In December, there were 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing (3 TBNs by OA Alliance, 1 TBN and 1 blank sailing by MSC/PA Alliance) [3]. - As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 1.072 million TEU in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU category and 12 ships with a capacity of 253,800 TEU in the over 17,000 TEU category had been delivered [6]. IV. Supply Chain No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only figure references are given. V. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only figure references are given.