中金研究 中国出海电商在性价比和运营效率上处于领先地位，在25年的外部压力测试中表现出较强韧性，看好中国出海电商平台未来在海外市场获得份额，以 及各平台的运营效率持续优化。 Abstract 外部扰动下，出海电商平台保持韧性。 25年以来，关税和小包免税政策的调整成为影响出海电商的主要矛盾，全球范围内对出海电商的监管趋严。在此 逆风下，我们测算25年出海电商GMV同增12%，其中四大中国出海电商平台GMV同增25%，中长期看，是否具备全球化能力，或成为电商平台发展的重 要分水岭。 本地化和分散化有效应对政策风险。 我们观察到主要出海平台在分散经营区域、增加海外仓履约方式、改进运营策略和推进半托管模式上均有系列动 作，展现出更强的经营韧性和抗风险能力。我们认为出海电商所面临的经营环境和海外政策扰动会持续，但当平台在具备了更强的本地化能力和分散化布 局后，有望降低极端情况对平台经营的影响，从而实现收入和利润稳健增长。 小包免税政策面临全球范围内的转向。 全球主要国家大都有一定价值量以下的小包裹豁免关税的海关政策，而出海电商也得以享受这一政策红利，以小 包直发的方式进入全球各国以豁免或降低关税或增值税。但随着中国出 ...

Group 1 - Xiaopeng Motors has launched its third overseas localized production project in Malaysia, following projects in Indonesia and Austria, with plans for mass production by 2026 to serve the ASEAN right-hand drive market [5] - Alibaba Cloud has signed a full-stack AI cooperation agreement with Aishi Technology to enhance AI video generation capabilities, leveraging Alibaba's cloud infrastructure and AI services [5] - SF Middle East has signed a cooperation agreement with Oman Asyad Group to enhance cross-border transportation and logistics collaboration [6] Group 2 - Li Auto has officially entered the markets of Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, launching its L-series models to meet local luxury market demands [6] - The Singapore Land Transport Authority has awarded contracts for 660 electric buses, with Chinese companies like BYD and Yutong winning bids [8] - Temu is accelerating its expansion into the Swiss market, attracting dozens of local merchants to join its platform [7] Group 3 - The sales of Chinese television brands on AliExpress have surged by 300% over the past year, with Xiaomi leading in sales during overseas shopping events [9] - Dunhuang.com announced new regulations for shipping to Saudi Arabia, requiring compliance with new address labeling rules starting January 1, 2026 [9] - CATL has secured a 6.2 GWh energy storage order in Southeast Asia, with plans to supply a large-scale solar power project in Indonesia [10] Group 4 - Mixue Ice Cream has opened a store in Los Angeles and is expanding its overseas presence, with plans to increase its global store count to 53,014 by June 2025 [10] - The autonomous driving company Baixiniu has completed a new round of financing to accelerate its market expansion and technology development [11] - Galaxy General Robotics has raised over 3 billion yuan in a new financing round, enhancing its global market presence [11] Group 5 - Oculab has completed a $30 million Series B financing to advance its dual-specificity antibody eye drug into clinical trials in the US and China [12] - Chinese autonomous driving companies are increasingly focusing on emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [13] - China's energy storage companies have seen a significant increase in overseas orders, with a 246% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [14] Group 6 - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries has exceeded 21 trillion yuan, accounting for over half of China's total foreign trade, with a notable export growth rate of 11.3% [14] - Argentina has eliminated small import tariffs, leading to a 237% increase in online packages from Chinese e-commerce platforms [14]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced a fixed tariff of 3 euros on all imported packages valued below 150 euros, effective July 1, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact the e-commerce landscape, particularly affecting low-cost sellers from China [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Details - The new regulation introduces a flat fee of 3 euros instead of a traditional value-based tax, disproportionately affecting low-cost items [4]. - For example, a 5-euro phone case will see its cost increase by 150% due to the new tariff, while a 100-euro item will only see a minimal impact [5]. - The tariff is applied per customs classification, meaning that packages with multiple items may incur higher total tariffs if items fall under different categories [5][6]. Group 2: Market Impact - The new policy is expected to disrupt the business models of platforms like Shein and Temu, which rely on low prices and fast shipping [10][11]. - Small and medium-sized sellers, particularly those selling low-margin products, will face significant challenges as they may not be able to pass on the increased costs to consumers [11]. - The EU's decision is part of a broader trend of tightening regulations on low-value cross-border trade, with similar measures being adopted in the US, UK, and Thailand [13][14]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Sellers are advised to shift from a "price war" strategy to a "value war," focusing on higher-value products to mitigate the impact of the new tariffs [15]. - Transitioning to a supply chain model that utilizes local warehouses in the EU can help sellers avoid the new tariffs and improve delivery times [16]. - Diversifying market presence beyond Europe to regions with less stringent tax policies can help sellers reduce risk and find new growth opportunities [16].

Key Insights - Temu has rapidly climbed to become the third most visited e-commerce site in the UK, gaining 8 million new users in one year, with a monthly visit count of 28.4 million as of May, indicating strong market penetration [5][6][7] - Xiaomi, TCL, and Hisense have collectively increased their sales on AliExpress by 300% year-on-year, positioning the platform as a core part of their international strategy [8][9] - Ant Group's AI health app "Antifufu" has surged to the third position on the Apple App Store, with over 15 million monthly active users and a compound growth rate of 83% [11][12][14] - The first overseas store of Mixue Ice Cream has opened in Los Angeles, offering competitively priced products, marking a significant step in its global expansion strategy [15][16][20] - MiniMax is set to become the world's first publicly listed company focused on AGI, having passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with a projected market growth from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033 [23][24] - Xiaomi's new open-source model MiMo-V2-Flash has been highlighted for its efficiency and competitive edge, ranking among the top two global open-source models [25][27] - Elon Musk's net worth has reached $700 billion, following a court ruling that reinstated the value of his Tesla stock options, significantly impacting his overall wealth [30][32] - SpaceX is preparing for an IPO, with a potential valuation of $1.5 trillion, and has entered a "quiet period" to comply with regulatory requirements [40][41] - OpenAI is in talks with Amazon for a potential investment of at least $10 billion, which would elevate its valuation to over $500 billion, while also planning to adopt Amazon's AI chips [44][45]

Core Insights - Cross-border e-commerce is reshaping global trade at an unprecedented speed, driven by globalization and the need for efficient, low-cost transactions [1] - PingPong, as a leading cross-border payment service provider, leverages technology and service innovation to shorten payment chains and reduce operational costs for businesses [1] Group 1: Payment Infrastructure - PingPong connects with over 100 mainstream currencies and 20 local collection accounts, enabling rapid fund transfers between buyers and sellers [3] - The traditional cross-border settlement process, which typically takes days, is significantly reduced to minutes or even seconds, enhancing merchants' cash flow efficiency [3] Group 2: Integration with E-commerce Platforms - PingPong collaborates with over 200 major e-commerce platforms, including Walmart, Amazon, TikTok Shop, and Temu, to provide store setup and payment services [3] - Businesses can manage sales receipts from multiple e-commerce platforms through a unified platform, facilitating payments to global suppliers, logistics providers, and marketing partners [3] - This integrated financial management capability transforms fragmented and high-friction payment processes into centralized and efficient operations, extending convenience beyond sales to the entire supply chain and operational processes [3]

Group 1: Company Developments - XPeng Motors has launched its third overseas localized production project in Malaysia, following projects in Indonesia and Austria, with plans for mass production by 2026 to serve the ASEAN right-hand drive market [3] - Alibaba Cloud has signed a full-stack AI cooperation agreement with Aishi Technology to enhance AI video generation capabilities, leveraging Alibaba's cloud infrastructure and AI services [3] - SF Middle East has signed a cooperation agreement with Oman Asyad Group to enhance cross-border transportation and logistics innovation [4] - Li Auto has officially entered the markets of Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, launching its L9, L7, and L6 models to meet local luxury market demands [4] - BYD and Yutong, among other Chinese companies, have won contracts to supply 660 electric buses to Singapore, with deliveries starting in late 2026 [4] Group 2: Market Expansion and Trends - Temu is accelerating its expansion in Switzerland, attracting dozens of local merchants to enhance its local operations and increase the proportion of European sellers to 80% [5] - AliExpress has seen a 300% increase in sales of Chinese TV brands, attracting major brands like Xiaomi and TCL, and is positioning itself as a competitor to Amazon [6] - The Chinese energy storage sector is experiencing explosive growth in overseas orders, with a reported 246% year-on-year increase in new overseas orders in the first half of 2025 [10] - Argentina has seen a 237% increase in online packages from Chinese e-commerce platforms due to the removal of small import tariffs, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior amid high inflation [11] Group 3: Investment and Financing - Baixiniu has completed a new round of financing to accelerate the production and market promotion of its L4 autonomous driving platform, with over 2,000 active vehicles operating globally [8] - Galaxy General Robotics has secured over 3 billion yuan in new financing, supported by international funds, to expand its global market presence [8] - Oculi has raised $30 million in Series B funding to advance its dual-specificity antibody eye drug OCUL101 into Phase II clinical trials in China and the U.S. [9]

扬帆出海 作者丨以南 12月16日，据中东媒体Saudi Gazette（《沙特公报》）报道，沙特本土头部电商平台Noon已成功筹集5亿美元新资金，并计划推进首次公开募股（IPO）。而 早在今年9月，Noon创始人兼董事长穆罕默德·阿拉巴尔曾公开表示，公司目前已非常接近实现盈利，预计在未来两年内将完成沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋的双重上 市。 成立于2016年，由沙特公共投资基金（PIF）持股50%的重要子公司Noon，即将在明年迎来它的10岁诞辰。与此同时，中国跨境卖家在中东的布局，也正从 早期的试水探索，逐步走向更深入的阶段。 Lexie是一位00后创业者，运营着一家海外公关公司，同时也是自媒体人。今年4月，在中美关税环境持续变化的背景下，许多中国跨境品牌开始拓展中东业 务，嗅到市场变化的气息后，Lexie也前往沙特进行了一场商务考察。 在她的记录中，当地的"朝觐经济"在消费类市场中占据了最大的份额，但相关的纪念品及文化周边伴随着同质化严重的问题。在机场，每走几步就会遇到消 费电子卖家，但品类基本为手机相关的基础配件，耳机也是五年前的上新款。这些切身的观察，也促使她重新思考着中东跨境电商的可能性。 中美关税风波让更 ...

Group 1 - The EU has recently intensified its scrutiny of Chinese companies, particularly targeting Temu and Nuctech, indicating a shift towards more aggressive regulatory measures [3][7][10] - The Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) has emerged as a significant tool for the EU, allowing for broader investigations beyond just goods, impacting platforms, mergers, and procurement processes [4][10] - A survey revealed that 63% of Chinese companies reported negative impacts from the FSR, with over half stating that the scrutiny has severely damaged their business reputation [10][13] Group 2 - The EU's new tax reform, set to impose a €3 handling fee on cross-border packages starting in 2026, aims to eliminate the €150 tax exemption threshold, effectively raising compliance barriers for foreign competitors [3][13] - Economic data shows a concerning trend for Europe, with Germany experiencing a 30% increase in bankruptcies and France's per capita wealth ranking dropping from 5th to 26th globally [15][17] - The EU's economic growth forecast for 2025 is only 1.1%, with the Eurozone expected to perform even worse, highlighting a lack of innovation and competitiveness in key sectors [17][19] Group 3 - The current EU strategy reflects a protectionist approach, prioritizing regulatory measures over long-term industrial planning, which diverges from former Chancellor Merkel's vision of a resilient and independent Europe [21][23] - There are warnings that if the current trajectory continues, Europe could see its global GDP share fall below 12% within the next decade, indicating a potential decline in global influence [23][27] - The EU is at a crossroads, with some member states advocating for pragmatic cooperation rather than restrictive regulations, suggesting a need for a shift in focus towards internal market reforms and technological advancements [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - Rakuten Group aims to increase the number of overseas merchants on its e-commerce platform, Rakuten Market, to counter the rising popularity of low-cost platforms like SHEIN and Temu from China [2][4]. Group 1 - Rakuten Market currently has approximately 55,000 stores, with only about 1,000 being overseas merchants [2][4]. - The company plans to enhance its overseas merchant recruitment efforts and support them in publishing messages and promotions in Japanese [2][4]. - The best-selling products on Rakuten Market include nutritional supplements from the U.S. and home appliances from China [4]. Group 2 - Since 2015, Rakuten has allowed overseas merchants to open stores, initially from the U.S. and South Korea, and now from 22 countries and regions including China and Europe [4]. - The annual increase in overseas merchants has been around 150, with a target to raise this number to between 450 and 600 in the future [4]. - To address barriers such as language and business practices, Rakuten will assign consultants to each store and enhance its consulting system to improve overseas visibility [4]. Group 3 - An overseas version of the organization "NATIONS," which facilitates the sharing of sales experiences among stores, will be launched in March 2026 [5].

文 / 现代物流报记者 常河山 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议把坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢，鼓励支持服务出口，积极发展数字贸易，作为2026年做好经 济工作要抓好的重点任务之一。 （图源：新华网） 作为数字贸易业态之一的跨境电商，表现不俗。海关总署数据显示，2025年上半年，我国跨境电商进出口总值1.37万亿元，比2024年同期增长10.3%。其 中，出口1.09万亿元，比2024年同期增长11.6%。 从萌芽、探索，到爆发、成熟，如今，中国跨境电商已经完成"从流量狂欢到价值深耕"的转型，正在通过技术深化与精细化运营，步入"效率与品牌红利 期"。 拓荒破局：跨境电商的萌芽与本土崛起 期间，有少量国内卖家，已经开始在eBay和Amazon等国外平台尝试做跨境电商，但并没有形成规模。 2004年到2012年，被业界称为跨境电商的探索期。 随着宽带普及和支付体系的不断完善，跨境电商开始尝试在线上闭环交易。一些商务平台，从单纯的信息发布，开始转向在线交易，盈利模式也开始走向多 元化。这个时期，针对中小卖家的交易平台也开始出现。 2004年1月，京东多媒体网正式上线，标志着京东正式进入电商 ...