Core Insights - The aviation industry is responsible for approximately 99% of its carbon emissions from fuel consumption during flights, and the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is seen as a key pathway to decarbonization, potentially reducing carbon emissions by 80% over its lifecycle [1][4][11] - The Chinese Civil Aviation Administration has initiated a pilot program for SAF, mandating a 1% blend of SAF in domestic flights from specific airports starting March 19, 2025 [1][8] - The global aviation industry aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with SAF expected to contribute significantly to this goal, accounting for 65% of the necessary reductions [2][4] Industry Developments - SAF is currently priced at about five times that of conventional aviation fuel, which poses a challenge for airlines in its adoption [4][6] - Airbus has been proactive in using SAF, consuming over 14 million liters in 2024, which accounted for 16% of its total fuel usage, thereby avoiding nearly 35 million tons of CO2 emissions [5] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that SAF will only represent 0.3% of commercial aviation fuel consumption in 2024, significantly lower than earlier estimates [4][6] Policy and Regulation - The European Union has set mandatory SAF blending targets, requiring 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, which has stimulated demand [6][7] - China's "14th Five-Year" green development plan aims for a SAF consumption of over 20,000 tons in 2025, which would represent about 0.2% of the annual aviation kerosene consumption [7][8] Market Potential in China - China has a diverse range of raw materials for SAF production, including waste oils and agricultural residues, with potential annual production capacity reaching 12 million tons by 2030 [11][12] - The country is the largest market for renewable energy, which can significantly reduce the energy costs associated with SAF production [11][12] - The strong manufacturing capabilities and engineering execution in China are expected to facilitate the rapid development of the SAF industry [12][13]

证券研究报告：航空运输|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 2000.5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2398.85 | | 52 周最低 | | 1625.59 | 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《6 月客座率超 19 年同期，中报预告基 本符合预期》 - 2024.07.16 航空运输 4 月数据点评 客座率同比走高，价格预期改善 l 各航司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据 各航空公司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据。4 月各航司整体运量保 持增长，增速略快于 3 月。各航司间运营表现有所分化，大航中，东 航运量增速靠前，民营航司中，春秋增速快于吉祥。客座率方面，三 大航客座率继续走高，南航、东航客座率突破 85%，春秋客座率略有 下降，吉祥客座率略有上升。 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -20% -16% -12% -8% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season due to strong demand [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines as potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the passenger load factor remains high, with strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, leading to a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3][4]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with ticket prices in May showing a decline of only 3.0% compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The average domestic ticket price from the beginning of 2025 until May 18 is 847 yuan, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year decrease [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by fleet issues, with potential delays in aircraft introductions due to supply chain problems and limited short-term improvements in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - The demand side shows sustained growth in travel demand during peak seasons, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rise in ticket prices [3][4]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines experienced a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47][49]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft in April, adding five aircraft to its fleet [47][48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has shown a continuous year-on-year decline, with May's average price at 5,385 yuan per ton, down 19.0% from the previous year [41][41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41][41]. 6. Exchange Rate Stability - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1916 as of May 19, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of 2024 [41][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a notable improvement in passenger load factors, with April's load factor increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% year-on-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in capacity [1][2]. - Revenue management strategies are beginning to show positive results, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 11.5% during the week of May 5-11 [1][4]. - The supply growth in the aviation sector is expected to remain low, which, combined with effective revenue management, suggests a potential for improved profitability for airlines throughout the year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - The three major airlines reported a load factor increase of 3.1 percentage points to 84.0% in April, with domestic routes showing a 3.9 percentage point increase to 85.3% [2][10]. - Spring Airlines experienced a decline in load factor by 2.5 percentage points to 88.2%, while Juneyao Airlines showed a strong performance with a load factor increase of 2.9 percentage points to 86.2% [3][10]. Capacity and Revenue - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in capacity [10]. - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also rose by 11.5%, reflecting a strong demand recovery [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure will continue to improve, leading to a favorable environment for revenue management and profitability enhancement during the peak summer travel season [4][21]. - The expected low supply growth, coupled with rising ticket prices, is likely to support airlines' earnings recovery [1][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111 CH), China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 10.20, 5.15, and 69.10 respectively [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see improvements in both volume and pricing, with optimistic expectations continuing to develop. High passenger load factors are anticipated to drive ticket prices upward, supported by regulatory measures from the Civil Aviation Administration [4][5]. - The shipping industry is poised for a dual increase in volume and pricing due to multiple catalysts, including replenishment demand and seasonal peaks. The report highlights the potential for significant price increases in the shipping sector [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key companies recommended for investment include Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which are expected to show strong performance due to their operational resilience and market positioning [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure improvements and policy changes that could benefit the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [4][5]. Operational Tracking - Data from major airlines shows a positive trend in passenger traffic and load factors, with Southern Airlines reporting a 4.91% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [14]. - The report tracks significant increases in cargo volumes across various transportation modes, indicating a robust recovery in logistics and freight services [5][6]. Aviation Data Tracking - The report provides detailed metrics on airline performance, including ASK and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), showing growth across major carriers. For instance, China Eastern Airlines reported a 10.89% increase in RPK in Q1 2025 [14]. - The average ticket price for economy class during the Dragon Boat Festival is projected to rise, reflecting a strong demand environment [4]. Shipping Data Tracking - The report notes a 9.98% week-on-week increase in the SCFI index, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates, despite a year-on-year decline of 41.31% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff changes on shipping demand, particularly in the US-China trade context, which is expected to stimulate replenishment and seasonal demand [5]. Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks significant growth in express delivery volumes, with a 15.83% year-on-year increase in the number of packages collected during early May 2025 [5]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from improved cross-border trade conditions, which are expected to enhance the performance of logistics companies [5].

转自：极目新闻 飞常准信息显示，5月16日晚上，春秋航空的9C6899航班飞往韩国釜山后，又连夜返回了上海。同时， 该航班于5月17日早上飞到了韩国釜山。 乘客王女士（化名）在网上吐槽称，5月16日晚上乘坐春秋航空的9C6899航班飞往韩国釜山，结果因为 天气原因没有降落就又飞回上海浦东国际机场。 5月17日下午，王女士告诉极目新闻记者，她乘坐春秋航空的9C6899航班在5月16日晚上6时25分许从上 海浦东国际机场起飞，开始一路上比较顺畅，到了当晚9时许有一阵飞机特别颠簸，不久飞机上的广播 就说因为天气原因需要原路返航。 "当时机上的工作人员解释因为天气原因，韩国釜山金海机场不符合安全降落条件。"王女士介绍，飞机 在韩国釜山上空转悠了10多分钟后，开始返航上海浦东国际机场。当晚10时许，飞机飞回到上海浦东国 际机场，下飞机后大家乘坐航空公司安排的大巴到酒店免费住了一晚。 王女士表示，同机的乘客质疑的是为何非要飞回国内而不是降落在韩国其他机场。同时，不少乘客预订 了韩国釜山不同价格的酒店，航班当晚没有达到釜山只有退订酒店，乘客退订酒店就会遭受不同程度的 损失，但是航空公司没有补偿这些损失。 "我本人没有乘坐1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in international flight operations by Chinese airlines, with a weekly average of 6,428 flights, representing a 25.4% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Chinese airlines are expanding their international routes, with China Eastern Airlines launching six new routes across Europe and Central Asia, enhancing connectivity with key cities [3][4] - The number of countries with direct international flight access from China has increased to 79, indicating a robust expansion of China's international aviation network [1][8] Group 2 - China Eastern Airlines plans to operate new flights from Xi'an to Istanbul starting June 30, with three weekly flights, further strengthening air traffic between China and Europe [3] - The airline is also set to expand its European network to 15 cities, achieving a route recovery rate of 112% [4] - Other Chinese airlines, including China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines, are also increasing their international flight offerings, indicating a strong recovery in the aviation sector [5][7] Group 3 - The influx of international tourists to China has surged, with 1.115 million inbound visitors during the "May Day" holiday, marking a 43.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The expansion of international routes is complemented by the growth of regional airports, which are also adding international flights [8] - Major U.S. airlines, such as United Airlines, are planning to restore or add six round-trip routes to China, enhancing connectivity between the two countries [9][10]

Core Insights - China's inbound tourism market is experiencing significant growth driven by favorable policies such as visa exemptions and tax refunds, with a focus on converting inbound traffic into economic benefits [1][6] - Major airlines are expanding international routes and capacity to accommodate the increasing number of inbound tourists, with notable growth in passenger numbers from regions like Europe and Japan [2][3] - Airports are enhancing services to improve the inbound experience, transitioning from mere transit points to comprehensive gateways that create value for foreign visitors [3][4] Group 1: Inbound Tourism Growth - The introduction of visa-free policies for several South American countries and the mutual visa exemption with Uzbekistan is expected to boost inbound tourism [1] - In April, domestic airlines increased international capacity to 9 million seats, marking a 20.75% year-on-year growth [1] - Eastern Airlines and other carriers are launching new international routes and increasing flight frequencies to popular destinations [2] Group 2: Airport and Service Enhancements - Major airports like Shanghai Pudong and Guangzhou Baiyun are seeing increased passenger volumes, with Shanghai's airports averaging 114,000 inbound and outbound travelers daily during the May Day holiday, a 24% increase year-on-year [3][4] - Airports are improving multilingual services and offering comprehensive one-stop services for foreign travelers, enhancing the overall travel experience [3][4] Group 3: Market Potential and Recommendations - The inbound tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected 1.3 billion inbound tourists in 2024, reflecting a 60% year-on-year increase [6] - The share of inbound consumption in China's GDP is currently at 0.5%, indicating substantial growth potential compared to 1% to 3% in other major countries [6] - Recommendations include enhancing payment systems, expanding tax refund services, and improving digital services to attract more foreign tourists [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][54]. Core Insights - The overall air traffic volume for five listed airlines in April continues to recover, with international routes showing high growth [1]. - Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by endogenous growth and ongoing recovery in international routes [6]. - The report highlights the positive impact of falling oil prices on operational costs, further enhancing profitability for airlines [6]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In April, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth year-on-year was led by Spring Airlines (12.5%), followed by Eastern Airlines (9.7%), Southern Airlines (8.8%), Air China (5.3%), and Juneyao Airlines (2.8%) [1]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth year-on-year was highest for Eastern Airlines (15.6%), followed by Southern Airlines (12.1%), Spring Airlines (9.3%), Air China (8.6%), and Juneyao Airlines (6.3%) [1]. Domestic and International Routes - For domestic routes in April, ASK growth was led by Spring Airlines (11.2%), while Juneyao Airlines saw a decline of 10.3% [2]. - In contrast, international routes showed significant growth, with Juneyao Airlines leading at 60.0% ASK growth year-on-year [2]. Fleet and Capacity - As of April 2025, the total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 3 aircraft, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [4]. - The report indicates that the supply remains constrained, which could support pricing power for airlines [6]. Load Factor - In April, the load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 88.2%, while Air China had the lowest at 81.3% [3]. - Cumulative data for the first four months shows Spring Airlines maintaining a load factor of 90.0%, indicating strong operational efficiency [3]. Market Performance - The total market capitalization of the aviation sector is reported at 730.725 billion yuan, with a relative performance of -3.3% over the past month [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the aviation sector, particularly for low-cost carriers and those with strong international routes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The second CBTA Challenge aims to enhance pilot competency through competition, focusing on the application of core competencies in training and assessment, and promoting a unified effort within the aviation industry towards CBTA implementation [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The CBTA Challenge took place from May 15 to 16 in Rizhao, Shandong, with the goal of advancing pilot lifecycle management (PLM) and promoting CBTA training methods [1][3]. - The competition involved 21 teams and over 100 participants from various airlines, general aviation companies, and flight schools [4][5]. Group 2: Objectives and Significance - The event aims to strengthen pilots' adaptability to dynamic and complex operational environments, enabling them to make resource-planning decisions to mitigate safety risks [3][4]. - It serves as a platform for evaluating and selecting talented individuals for airlines and flight schools, contributing positively to the standardization and regulation of the civil aviation industry [4]. Group 3: Competition Structure - The competition focused on both technical and non-technical competencies, covering nine core competencies related to knowledge application, procedure execution, and situational awareness [4]. - The event included theoretical competitions, simulator skills practice, and interactive competitions based on pilot competencies [4]. Group 4: Institutional Support and Outcomes - The challenge was organized by the China Civil Aviation Pilots Association and several local aviation entities, highlighting the collaborative effort in promoting pilot training modernization [5]. - The event concluded with awards for outstanding teams, including the first prize for the CBTA team and teaching group awarded to Shandong Nanshan International Flying Company [5].