证券日报网讯 12月15日晚间，中国铝业发布公告称，公司2021年限制性股票激励计划预留授予部分第 二个解除限售期解除限售条件已成就，270名激励对象可解除限售限制性股票7，742，752股，上市流通 日期为2025年12月23日。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Insights - The strategic value of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is being redefined amid a sluggish global economic recovery and deep domestic economic adjustments, with multiple factors driving SOE investments from traditional valuation logic to a new paradigm [1] - Public funds are rapidly capturing this trend, with the total scale of SOE-related funds exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a shift in investment logic and strategic positioning [1] - Bosera Fund is leveraging a diversified product system and AI technology to create a differentiated advantage in the SOE value reassessment era [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The dual forces of policy catalysis and industrial upgrading are reshaping the valuation system of SOEs, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizing market value management [2] - In 2024, SOE assets are projected to exceed 90 trillion yuan, with strategic emerging industry investments reaching 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a 21.8% year-on-year increase [2] - New indices like the CSI SOE Innovation-Driven Index and the CSI National New SOE Modern Energy Index have emerged to cover core assets in technology innovation and green transformation [2][3] Group 2: Product Diversification and Performance - Bosera Fund's SOE Innovation-Driven ETF and Modern Energy ETF have become important tools for investors, offering low thresholds and high liquidity to capture industrial upgrade dividends [4] - The SOE Innovation-Driven ETF has shown impressive performance, with net value growth rates of 2.8%, 40.88%, and 65.29% over the past year, three years, and five years, respectively, all exceeding benchmark returns [5] - The Modern Energy ETF, launched in July 2023, has a clear investment strategy focused on energy and public utility sectors, achieving a net value growth rate of 15.92% since inception [5] Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Technological Integration - Bosera Fund's investment philosophy prioritizes strategic over financial accounting, recognizing the potential for value reassessment in traditional resource factors and the importance of nurturing strategic emerging industries [6] - The firm has initiated AI technology exploration since 2018, establishing an AI laboratory in 2023 to enhance its investment research capabilities across various business functions [7] - The AI-driven investment research engine has achieved significant results, including smart factor allocation and deep learning factor mining, contributing to differentiated alpha generation [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Commitment - The essence of SOE value reassessment is the capital market's revaluation of the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, with Bosera Fund committed to providing diversified products for investors to share in reform dividends [8] - The firm aims to write a new paradigm for SOE value investment through digital transformation and a long-termism approach, contributing to the high-quality development of SOEs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by macroeconomic recovery, supply chain disruptions, and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will enhance metal prices and industry performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry index (399395) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) leading the gains at 3.05%, followed by Yahua Group (002497) at 2.25%, and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) at 0.59% [1]. - The overall market is experiencing a pullback, but funds are strategically positioning in the non-ferrous sector [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - According to China Galaxy Securities, the industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with macroeconomic expectations improving in 2025, alongside supply chain disruptions due to resource control policies in other countries [1]. - The anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is expected to drive up non-ferrous metal prices and enhance the profitability of non-ferrous metal companies, continuing the upward trend in the industry [1]. - The narrative around copper supply remains positive, and cobalt prices are expected to rise under policy adjustments in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]. - The strategic value of rare earths is increasing, with a favorable supply-demand balance [1]. Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The non-ferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metals industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index accounted for 52.34% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Traditional Materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum are favored due to supportive macro and micro factors [1][8] Core Insights Copper - **Demand Growth**: Strong demand growth expected from Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with suppliers reporting over 50% demand growth for 2026 [2] - **Supply Disruptions**: Anticipated widening of the global copper supply deficit due to three major supply disruptions [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining and CMOC are highlighted for their expected 10-11% copper volume CAGR from 2025 to 2028 [3] Aluminum - **Supply Constraints**: Expected supply tightness due to potential shutdowns and delays in production restarts [4] - **Margin Expansion**: Anticipated sustainable margin expansion for aluminum smelters due to increasing demand and limited supply [4] - **Key Picks**: Chalco, Hongqiao, and China Shenhuo are identified as key investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [4] Gold - **Supportive Macro Environment**: Continued support for gold prices expected from US rate cuts and ongoing purchases by ETFs and central banks [5] - **Volume Growth**: Zijin Gold International is projected to achieve 30% volume growth in 2026, making it a key investment pick [5] Steel - **Production Cuts**: Limited production cuts expected in 2026, with demand anticipated to decline by over 2% [6] - **Export Quota Speculation**: Market expectations are rising regarding potential export quota systems in China [6] Coal - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Sufficient supply amid lukewarm demand is expected to pressure coal prices, with average prices projected at approximately Rmb720/t in 2026 [7] - **Renewable Energy Impact**: Anticipated continued market share gain for renewable power, leading to a slight drop in thermal coal demand [7] Additional Insights - **Market Ratings**: Various companies in the materials sector have been rated with Overweight (OW), Equal-weight (EW), and Underweight (UW) based on their expected performance and market conditions [9][12][13] - **Price Targets**: Adjustments to price targets for several companies have been made based on updated commodity price forecasts and market conditions [19][20] - **EPS Changes**: Significant changes in EPS estimates for various companies, reflecting adjustments in market expectations and commodity price forecasts [18][19] Conclusion - The outlook for traditional materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 is bullish, particularly for gold, copper, and aluminum, driven by strong demand and supply constraints. Investment opportunities are identified in specific companies within these sectors, while challenges remain in steel and coal markets.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Materials** industry, particularly in relation to **lithium**, **copper**, and **aluminum** sectors, as well as companies like **CATL**, **Zijin Mining**, and **Chalco** [1][2][3]. Key Insights 1. **Investor Sentiment on Lithium**: - There is significant interest in lithium due to a recent price rally driven by strong expectations in **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)**. Most investors are bullish on lithium [2][3]. - A cautious near-term outlook is suggested due to a slowdown in **Electric Vehicle (EV)** sales since November, which may impact battery production in Q1 2026E. A more constructive view is expected post-Chinese New Year (CNY) when demand is anticipated to increase [2][4]. 2. **Copper and Aluminum Market**: - Investors show little push-back on copper and aluminum stocks, with a preference for aluminum over copper at current price levels. **Zijin Mining** received the most follow-up inquiries from investors [2][4]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain tight in 2026E, which is supportive for prices and margins. The potential risks associated with aluminum supply are believed to be underappreciated by the market [4]. 3. **Company-Specific Insights**: - **CATL** is highlighted as the most well-owned name among US investors, with discussions around its risk/reward profile being favorable. It is considered to have the lowest risk among ESS-related investments [2][4]. - Other companies mentioned include **China Hongqiao**, **Ganfeng Lithium**, **Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology**, **Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material**, and **Yunnan Energy New Material**, which are seen as having potential upside in a rising price environment [4][7]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The call noted a shift in investor behavior, with many now open to adding selective Chinese equities to their portfolios. This marks a change from previous meetings where the focus was more on sector read-throughs and channel checks [3][4]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the implications of **China's anti-involution policies** on the materials sector, although specific details were not elaborated [1][2]. - The overall sentiment indicates a positive outlook for the battery price up-cycle into 2026E, with expectations of stronger ESS demand driving market dynamics [4]. Companies Mentioned - **CATL** (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd) - **Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd** - **Aluminum Corporation of China** - **China Hongqiao** - **Ganfeng Lithium** - **Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology** - **Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material** - **Yunnan Energy New Material** [7].

Summary of Conference Call on China Materials Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China materials industry, particularly in the context of an up-cycle expected to continue into 2026, driven by a supportive macro environment and supply disruptions affecting commodity prices [1][2]. Key Insights - **Commodity Price Support**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to weaken the DXY by another 5% into the first half of 2026, with three anticipated rate cuts from the Fed [2]. This is expected to support commodity prices, particularly for aluminum, copper, gold, lithium, and cobalt equities [1][2]. - **Energy Storage Demand**: Demand from Energy Storage Systems (ESS) is projected to grow approximately 50% in 2026, significantly impacting the consumption of copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]. ESS production is expected to increase from 350 GWh in 2024 to around 900 GWh in 2026, leading to potential deficits in aluminum and copper [3]. - **Supply Challenges**: The industry is facing significant supply challenges, particularly in copper and aluminum. Major mine accidents in 2025 have constrained supply growth, and Chinese copper smelters may reduce output by 10% in 2026 [4]. Additionally, aluminum production is threatened by potential shutdowns and power outages, leading to a projected deficit in 2026 [4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Preferred investment opportunities highlighted include companies such as Zijin Mining, CMOC, Hongqiao, Chalco, JL Mag, Huayou Cobalt, and Huaxin Cement, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [2][4]. Additional Important Points - **Anti-involution Progress**: The industry is gradually addressing overproduction issues, particularly in coal and cement, with more stringent controls expected to take effect in 2026 [5]. - **Price Forecasts**: The conference provided updated price forecasts for various commodities, indicating a slight increase in aluminum and copper prices for 2026, with aluminum projected at $1.40 per lb and copper at $5.34 per lb [16]. - **Stock Recommendations**: A list of overweight stocks in the Greater China materials sector was provided, including JL Mag, Zhaojin, Huaxin, and Chalco, among others, with target price increases ranging from 10% to 51% [9][10]. - **Market Cap and Liquidity**: The report included details on market capitalization and average daily volume for recommended stocks, indicating strong liquidity for several key players in the sector [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the China materials industry, highlighting both opportunities and challenges ahead.

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from December 4 to December 10, 2025 [1][2][4]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 856,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY) [2]. - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 7% increase YoY [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 42.2 million tons (mnt), up 2.8% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 17.3mnt, up 6.1% YoY [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 850kt as of December 11, 2025, a decrease of 3% WoW but an increase of 3% YoY [3]. - Social and producers' inventory levels were 708kt and 143kt, respectively, with social inventory down 3% WoW and producers' inventory down 6% WoW [3]. - For aluminum ingots, inventory was 635kt (-3% WoW, +4% YoY), and for aluminum billets, it was 215kt (-5% WoW, +1% YoY) [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 916kt during the week, a 2% increase WoW and a 5% increase YoY [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 921kt (+2% WoW, +5% YoY) and for aluminum billets was 356kt (flat WoW, +6% YoY) [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 43.5mnt, up 4.2% YoY [4]. Market Sentiment - Market expectations for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remain cautious, with a pecking order of demand indicating aluminum is prioritized over other materials like copper and coal [1]. - Top picks in the sector include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A [1]. Valuation Insights Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Target price for Chalco H-share is HK$12.41, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.28x for 2026E, reflecting stronger-than-average return on equity (ROE) due to higher aluminum margins [15]. - Target price for Chalco A-share is Rmb14.77, based on a PB ratio of 2.93x for 2026E [17]. Risks - Key risks affecting stock prices include lower-than-expected aluminum prices, higher costs, and potential government policy changes regarding supply cuts [16][18]. Other Companies - CATL's target price is Rmb571/share, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2026E [19]. - Hongqiao's target price is HK$36.00/share, based on a PE ratio of 11.4x for 2026E [20]. - Zijin Mining's target price is Rmb35.5/share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [23]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption showing positive trends. However, potential risks remain that could impact stock valuations and market dynamics. Key players in the industry are positioned for growth, but external factors such as pricing and government policies will play a significant role in their performance moving forward.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Thermal Coal in China - **Data Source**: Sxcoal, a consultant tracking high-frequency demand trends in China Core Insights - **Production Trends**: - Thermal coal output from 100 sample mines was **12,187 kt** for the week of December 4-10, 2025 - This represents a **0.5% decrease week-over-week (WoW)**, a **3.6% decrease year-over-year (YoY)**, and a **3.1% decrease YoY on the lunar calendar** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,960 kt** (-0.9% WoW, -1.1% YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,516 kt** (-1.1% WoW, -9.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,711 kt** (+0.1% WoW, -0.9% YoY) [2] - **Utilization Ratios**: - Overall utilization ratio for sample mines was **90.2%**, down **0.5 percentage points (ppt) WoW** and **3.4 ppt YoY** - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **86.0%** (-0.8 ppt WoW, -1.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **89.7%** (-1.0 ppt WoW, -9.4 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **93.0%** (+0.1 ppt WoW, flat YoY) [3] - **Inventory Levels**: - Total coal inventory in sample mines was **3,253 kt** on December 10, 2025, reflecting a **1.4% increase WoW** but a **2.8% decrease YoY** - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **866 kt** (+1.4% WoW, -1.0% YoY) - Shaanxi: **698 kt** (+2.0% WoW, -15.4% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,689 kt** (+1.1% WoW, +2.5% YoY) [4] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks in the Sector**: - Hongqiao - Chalco H/A - Zijin Mining H/A - CATL-A [1] Risks Identified - **Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco)**: - Target price for A-share: **Rmb14.77**, based on **2.93x 2026E PB** - Risks include lower-than-expected aluminum prices, higher costs, and potential government policy changes [14][15] - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL)**: - Target price: **Rmb571/share**, based on **17.3x 2026E EV/EBITDA** - Risks include lower EV demand and increased competition in the battery market [18] - **China Hongqiao**: - Target price: **HK$36.0/share**, based on **11.4x 2026E PE** - Risks include cost overruns and economic slowdown [19][20] - **Zijin Mining**: - Target price for A-share: **Rmb35.5/share**, based on DCF valuation - Risks include lower gold and copper prices and capex overruns [22][25] Additional Notes - **Market Positioning**: The report indicates a pecking order of demand across various sectors, with aluminum and copper leading, followed by battery materials and coal [1] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: YTD thermal coal output was **606 million tonnes (mnt)**, reflecting a **2.4% increase YoY** [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating it is in a high prosperity cycle [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The global metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with exploration investments expected to decline further in 2025, reflecting a rigid supply characteristic [5][6]. - The supply growth rate of global mining is significantly lower than the output growth rate of metals, indicating a strong rigidity in supply [6][24]. - The demand for metals is expected to remain resilient due to the growth in new energy sectors and infrastructure development in China [10][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with exploration investments projected to decrease by 0.64% to $12.4 billion in 2025, following a 3% decline in 2024 [5][23]. - The average supply growth rate for global mining has dropped from 6.35% to 2.22%, which is only 49.8% of the average growth rate over the past 30 years [6][24]. - The supply rigidity is spreading from the mining sector to the smelting sector, with China's non-ferrous metal production growth rate declining significantly [6][24]. 2. Metal Types and Future Supply - The exploration budget for gold and copper is increasing, while budgets for lithium and nickel are decreasing, indicating a shift in focus towards more traditional metals [7][25]. - The supply structure for copper is showing signs of structural weakness, while demand remains robust due to various industrial applications [10][74]. 3. Inventory and Pricing Trends - Global metal inventories are at a near 35-year low, with significant signs of destocking observed [8][52]. - The average return on equity (ROE) in the metal industry has increased from 8.34% to 10.60%, indicating improved profitability [8][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the non-ferrous metals industry is likely to continue its high prosperity cycle, with an increasing allocation of public funds to the sector [9][10]. - The investment attributes of the industry are expected to strengthen, particularly in response to tightening supply and resilient demand [9][10].

2025 年 12 月 16 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-12-15 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-12-12 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-12-11 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 58 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、银行、券商 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：58 分（中性） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 ...