Industry Overview - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is reported at 4120 points this week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - The CCPI for the previous week was 4066 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - The domestic maritime shipping price for liquid chemicals was 168 RMB/ton, down 8.51% year-on-year and 0.62% month-on-month [1] Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2] - The total collection volume for postal express from January 26 to February 1 was approximately 4.541 billion pieces, up 60.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The total delivery volume during the same period was about 4.477 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [2] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, express delivery revenue will reach 1.5 trillion RMB, growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] Logistics - DSV's integration of DB Schenker is progressing ahead of expectations, with completion anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on smart logistics, benefiting from improved demand [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights nationwide decreased by 1.08% year-on-year, with domestic flights down 1.28% [4] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 67.55 USD/barrel, down 4.47% month-on-month and 11.07% year-on-year [4] - The domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price (including tax) is 5334 RMB/ton, down 4.3% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream component suppliers [4] Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) is at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% month-on-month and 33.2% year-on-year [5] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 88.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for oil transportation [5] - A recent agreement between the U.S. and India to halt Russian oil purchases is expected to boost oil transportation demand [5] Road and Rail Ports - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of Shandong Expressway, acquiring 7% of its total share capital at a price of 8.92 RMB/share, totaling 3.019 billion RMB [5] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 56.83 million, up 4.75% month-on-month and 506.12% year-on-year [5]

一是综合成本低。 对制造业而言，"人"与"地"是成本的核心。柬埔寨在这两方面仍保持着相对周边国家的显著优势。 | 国家 | 最低月工资(美元) | 工业用地价格(美元/m²) | 电力成本(美元/千瓦时) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柬埔寨 | 208 (2025年制衣业正式员工) | 45-180 (工业园区内) | 0.137(专线直供) | | | 210 (2026年最新标准) | 30-50 (偏远地区) | 0.15-0.35(园区转供) | | 越南 | 250-350 (2025年) | 133-189 (北部工业区) | 0.08-0.11 (工业用电) | | | 265-375 (2026年最新调整) | 179 (南部工业区) | | | 泰国 | 300-400(曼谷及周边) | 较高(曼谷及EEC区域约 | 0.07-0.15(工业用电. 高峰约0.13美元,低谷约 | | | | 15.000-30.000泰铢/m2. | | | | | 约420-840美元/m2) | 0.07美元) | 加入联盟会员▲免费领出海报告 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights concerns regarding the potential suspension of express delivery services during the Spring Festival, which has led to increased consumer anxiety and purchasing behavior. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are reacting to the news of potential delivery suspension by making last-minute purchases, with one individual stating they placed 20 orders overnight due to the announcement [2] - The fear of not receiving goods in time for the holiday has prompted consumers to buy items they were previously hesitant about [5] Group 2: Delivery Service Responses - Multiple express delivery companies have announced their service arrangements for the Spring Festival, confirming that they will continue to provide delivery services to meet holiday demand [9] - Major companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express have stated that they will not suspend operations during the holiday and have not received any notifications regarding price increases [11] - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that they operate year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, while JD Logistics indicated that some stations might experience scheduling changes and potential resource adjustment fees [12] - Other companies like SF Express and Debon Express also confirmed they will not suspend operations, although transportation costs may be adjusted due to various factors [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector remains at a high level of prosperity, with oil tanker market conditions particularly strong due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions impacting oil supply [6][17] - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stocks that provide stable dividend assets, with a recommendation for Wanhua Express [18] - The aviation industry shows an upward trend in fundamentals for 2026, with significant increases in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival [21][34] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates in 2026, with a focus on valuation and competitive positioning [20][21] Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker market conditions are buoyed by geopolitical risks, with VLCC rates at $124,000/day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [13][55] - The dry bulk market has seen fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1923 points, down 10.5% week-on-week [53] - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][17] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows significant growth in freight traffic, with road truck traffic at 56.83 million vehicles, a 506.1% year-on-year increase [18][59] - Port throughput reached 281.597 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [18][59] - The report suggests focusing on stable cash flow assets in the port sector, highlighting their current undervaluation [18] Aviation Sector Summary - During the Spring Festival, passenger traffic increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with domestic ticket prices rising by 6.1% [21][34] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of profit elasticity for the aviation industry due to improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices [34] - The report emphasizes monitoring Spring Festival data and its impact on market sentiment [34] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.6% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with a slowdown expected in 2026 [20][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, indicating a potential "golden era" for airlines due to improving demand and supply constraints [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which may impact shipping dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of the shipbuilding sector, with recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as the dollar strengthens [2]. - The report notes that VLCC freight rates remain high, with a slight increase of 2% week-on-week, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand in the oil shipping market [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a growing trend in international travel [2]. - The express delivery industry faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates have shown a week-on-week increase of 2%, with current rates at $124,743 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have decreased by 3% and 7% respectively [2]. - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates, particularly in the context of the Middle East and the Black Sea region [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with airlines expected to benefit from increased capacity allocation to international routes and a favorable oil price environment [2]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading firms, with ZTO Express and YTO Express being noted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. - The report suggests that despite uncertainties, the competitive landscape will favor established players [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic have shown resilience, with a reported increase of 2.27% and 4.75% respectively in recent weeks [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management opportunities [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the transportation sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as SF Holding and China Southern Airlines [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is seeing improvements with DSV's integration of DB Schenker progressing ahead of schedule, and a focus on smart logistics is recommended for Hai Chen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a slight decrease in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from manufacturers. Recommendations include China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport indices are on the rise, indicating a potential increase in oil transport demand [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with significant increases in truck traffic on highways and a notable rise in the dividend yield of major public road operators [6][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.8% during the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.2% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping Ports - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% week-on-week and down 20.7% year-on-year. The Shanghai export container shipping index (SCFI) was at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% week-on-week and down 33.2% year-on-year [21]. 2.2 Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a 6% increase and international routes a 9% increase [56]. 2.3 Rail and Road - In December 2025, national railway passenger volume was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while road freight volume was 3.797 billion tons, up 0.62% year-on-year [77][79].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the operational status of various express delivery companies during the upcoming Spring Festival, highlighting that most companies will continue to provide services but may implement additional charges due to increased demand and resource allocation challenges [2][4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that it will operate year-round but may introduce additional charges for pick-up services, with specific details to be announced later [4]. - JD Logistics indicated that during the peak period from January 19 to February 23, 2026, it will impose a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg on express heavy cargo, depending on the station [4]. - SF Express announced that it will charge a resource adjustment fee during the Spring Festival from February 16 to February 23, with reports of price increases in certain areas [5]. - YTO Express stated that it will maintain normal operations except for certain regions affected by third-party logistics or weather, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [5]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with some areas experiencing delays and potential price increases [6]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Companies are preparing for potential delays in delivery times due to limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [6]. - Different express delivery companies may have varying operational statuses based on local conditions, with some branches still awaiting specific instructions [6].