Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 4.80%, long products by 1.27%, and flat products by 1.94% [1][2] - Iron ore segment surged by 10.15%, steel consumables by 2.94%, and trade circulation by 4.33% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 84.9%, up by 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, down by 1.12 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The output of five major steel products was 6.92 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons week-on-week [2] - Daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, up by 0.03 million tons week-on-week, but down by 28,300 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - Consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, down by 16,700 tons week-on-week [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 95,000 tons, down by 4.3% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.726 million tons, down by 339,100 tons week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 3.854 million tons, down by 28,800 tons week-on-week [3] Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,439.2 yuan/ton, down by 9.57 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,571.8 yuan/ton, up by 1.81 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 50 yuan/ton, up by 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -4 yuan/ton, up by 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 800 yuan/ton, up by 2.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal remained stable at 1,700 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Investment Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation despite current challenges [6][7] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to government "stability growth" policies supporting real estate and infrastructure [6][7] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [7] - Recommended companies include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a 3.42% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore have seen even higher gains [2][10] - Supply constraints and seasonal demand weakness are expected to lead to a gradual increase in steel prices [2][3] - The overall demand for steel is projected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Summary - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 84.9%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 6.92 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.02% [2][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2658 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.03 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 28,300 tons [2][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.67 million tons [2][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 0.43 tons week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 8.726 million tons, down 339,100 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 3.74% [2][42] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.854 million tons, down 28,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 0.74% [2][41] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,439.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9.57 yuan/ton [2][48] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] - The profit for electric arc furnace rebar is -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [2][72] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is 1,770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [2][72] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential for growth [2][73]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends in China's steel import and export activities, indicating a slight increase in imports and a notable increase in exports in November 2025 [1] - In November 2025, China's steel imports amounted to 500,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the import value was $80.9 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% [1] - In the same month, China's steel exports reached 9.98 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with an export value of $6.945 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1] Group 2 - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "Analysis of the Competitive Landscape and Investment Development Research of China's Steel Deep Processing Industry from 2026 to 2032," indicating ongoing research and analysis in the steel industry [1] - A list of publicly listed companies in the steel sector is provided, including names such as Vanadium Titanium Co., CITIC Special Steel, and Baosteel, among others, suggesting a diverse market landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the "14th Five-Year Plan" across various companies within the Baowu Group, focusing on high-quality development and innovation-driven strategies. Group 1: New Steel Group - New Steel Group aims to activate reform and innovation, enhance production efficiency, and expand overseas markets to solidify its transformation and upgrade foundation [4][17] - The company emphasizes value creation, talent empowerment, and integrating party leadership into corporate governance to ensure high-quality development [4][17] Group 2: Baowu Special Metallurgy - Baowu Special Metallurgy's new strategic plan envisions becoming a leader in the global special metallurgy materials industry, focusing on core technology breakthroughs and collaborative innovation [6][19] - The company outlines a "12345" development strategy, targeting process innovation, lean operations, and talent development to achieve high-quality growth [6][19] Group 3: Baodi Assets - Baodi Assets integrates the spirit of the 20th National Congress with its development strategy, proposing five key tasks to enhance its core competitiveness and achieve high-quality growth [8][21] - The company emphasizes market-oriented reforms and the importance of employee development and performance-based compensation [8][21] Group 4: Huabao Investment - Huabao Investment focuses on supporting the steel industry while ensuring sustainable core business development, emphasizing financial innovation and integration with industrial innovation [10][23] - The company plans to enhance its talent development system and strengthen its market-oriented and professional capabilities [10][23] Group 5: Huabao Trust - Huabao Trust aims to leverage its trust system and collaborative advantages to enhance efficiency and core competitiveness, aligning with the strategic goals of the Baowu Group [11][24] - The company is committed to translating the spirit of the 20th National Congress into actionable strategies for high-quality development [11][24]

Market Performance - The steel sector saw a slight increase of 0.18% on December 25, with Jiugang Hongxing leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jiugang Hongxing (600307) closed at 1.68, with a rise of 2.44% and a trading volume of 789,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 132 million yuan [1] - New Steel Co. (600782) closed at 3.87, up by 1.84%, with a trading volume of 661,900 shares and a transaction value of 254 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Sansteel Minguang (002110) at 4.55, up 1.34% [1] - Hangang Co. (600126) at 8.07, up 1.25% [1] - Bayi Steel (600581) at 3.38, up 1.20% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The steel sector experienced a net outflow of 80.27 million yuan from institutional funds and 92.00 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 172 million yuan [2] - Specific stock fund flows include: - Baogang Co. (600010) with a net inflow of 33.70 million yuan from institutional funds [3] - Jiugang Hongxing (600307) with a net inflow of 6.86 million yuan from institutional funds [3] - Chongqing Steel (601005) with a net inflow of 5.54 million yuan from institutional funds [3]

Core Insights - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has shown a slight increase of 0.08% as of December 25, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Xiamen International Trade (up 4.44%) and Luxi Chemical (up 3.30%) [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has also increased by 0.26%, reflecting a growing interest in dividend-paying assets amid a favorable monetary policy environment [1][2] Market Performance - The trading volume for the National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 2.91% turnover with a transaction value of 1.489 million yuan, and the average daily trading volume over the past week was 4.2193 million yuan [1] - The latest scale of the National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF stands at 51.0433 million yuan, with a total of 44.7866 million shares [1] Policy and Economic Environment - The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to positively influence market sentiment [1] - The decline in the risk-free interest rate is expected to enhance the attractiveness of dividend assets, supported by ongoing policy improvements aimed at strengthening the quality and market capitalization management of listed companies [2] Investment Outlook - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the performance of dividend stocks is anticipated to outperform in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by improved relative valuations, easing pressure on cyclical earnings, and a shift in funding preferences towards high-dividend assets [2] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index reflects the overall performance of high-dividend securities selected from state-owned enterprises, focusing on those with stable dividends and significant liquidity [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - New Steel Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating potential investor interest and market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 25, New Steel's stock price increased by 2.11%, reaching 3.88 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 146 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.22%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.354 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, New Steel's stock price has risen by 16.52%, with a 3.47% increase over the last five trading days and a 2.11% increase over the last twenty days, while it has decreased by 3.48% over the last sixty days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Steel reported operating revenue of 27.225 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 162.21% to 360 million CNY [2]. - Since its A-share listing, New Steel has distributed a total of 5.584 billion CNY in dividends, with 816 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, New Steel had 38,200 shareholders, with an average of 82,368 circulating shares per shareholder, showing no change from the previous period [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 83.8502 million shares, an increase of 49.8782 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a projected decline in China's wire rod (coil) production in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% to 10.86 million tons, despite a slight cumulative growth of 0.4% in the first ten months of 2025 [1] Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of wire rod (coil) in China from January to October 2025 is expected to reach 11.3 million tons [1] - The report titled "2025-2031 China High-Speed Wire Rod Industry Market Development Scale and Industry Demand Assessment" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market trends and demands in the wire rod industry [1] Company Insights - Listed companies in the wire rod sector include Hangang Co., Ltd. (600126), Shagang Co., Ltd. (002075), Yongxing Materials (002756), Fangda Special Steel (600507), Linggang Co., Ltd. (600231), Fushun Special Steel (600399), *ST Xigang (600117), Liugang Co., Ltd. (601003), Magang Co., Ltd. (600808), and New Steel Co., Ltd. (600782) [1]

郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 23 日 人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推——汇率双周报系列之六 10 月中旬以来，美元小幅贬值背景下、人民币大幅升值；这一非对称的涨 势引发了市场对"年终结汇"的热议。本轮升值是不是结汇推动、后续人 民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，供参考。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3917 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 1.28 | | 深证综指 | 2493 | 1.13 | 5.16 | 1.56 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 20.31 | | 中盘指数 | 1.42 | 6.66 | 29.76 | | 小盘指数 | 1.12 | 5.06 | 25.03 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | ...