行 业 研 究 银行 2026 年 02 月 03 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳 ——行业深度报告 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 理论估算 1.4%净息差支撑 6%左右的 RWA 增速 据我们测算，银行若保持 RWA 6%-7%的增速，理论净息差大约在 1.44%-1.57% 是底线水平，2025Q3 商业银行净息差为 1.42%，意味着银行资产扩张面临内生 资本补充的现实硬约束，"稳息差"仍然是 2026 年银行核心经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a stabilization phase, with improvements in revenue growth expected for state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks by 2026, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and cost management strategies [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - According to CICC, the revenue growth rates for listed state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and regional banks are projected to be 2.7%, 0.6%, and 5.0% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.0%, 0.2%, and 6.5%, showing improvement compared to 2025 estimates [1] - The improvement in revenue is primarily attributed to the repricing of deposits and a decline in liability costs exceeding asset yield rates, leading to a narrowing of net interest margin declines [1] Group 2: Credit Growth and Non-Interest Income - CICC anticipates that credit growth will remain stable in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the industry's net interest income growth expected to turn positive for the year [1] - Non-interest income is expected to see slight increases due to the reallocation of household assets in a low-interest-rate environment, while other non-interest income is not expected to significantly drag down overall performance [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - Market participants believe that the CSI Bank Index is currently in a bottoming phase, presenting a potential opportunity for investment at lower levels [1] - The Huaxia Bank ETF, which tracks the CSI Bank Index, is noted for having the lowest comprehensive fee rate among ETFs, with associated funds available for investment [1]

Report Summary - The report presents the top ten convertible bonds in February 2026, along with detailed information about the issuing companies, including their business scope, financial data, and key attractions [1][6]. Top Ten Convertible Bonds in February 2026 1. Zhongte Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 1 - end closing price: 128.153 yuan; conversion premium rate: 73.5%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 14.75 [1][8]. - Company: A global leader in special - steel manufacturing with an annual production capacity of about 20 million tons. It has a complete industrial chain and multiple production bases [13]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 109.203 billion yuan (-4.22% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.126 billion yuan (-10.41% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 81.206 billion yuan (-2.75% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.33 billion yuan (+12.88% yoy) [13]. - Highlights: It is one of the world's most comprehensive special - steel enterprises, with high market shares in core products. It has strong cost - control and is seeking external expansion [14]. 2. Shanlu Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 1 - end closing price: 128.472 yuan; conversion premium rate: 54.45%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 4.32 [6][8]. - Company: Focused on road and bridge construction and maintenance, and expanding into other fields. It has a complete business system [31]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 71.348 billion yuan (-2.3% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.322 billion yuan (+1.47% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 41.354 billion yuan (-3.11% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.41 billion yuan (-3.27% yoy) [31]. - Highlights: It has the "China Special Valuation" concept, and its balance sheet and potential orders may improve. It may benefit from infrastructure plans in Shandong and the Belt and Road Initiative [32]. 3. Hebang Convertible Bond - Rating: AA; 1 - end closing price: 153.399 yuan; conversion premium rate: 21.26%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: -230.95 [6][8]. - Company: With a diversified business layout in chemicals, agriculture, and photovoltaics, it has expanded from a single - product business [44]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 8.547 billion yuan (-3.13% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 31 million yuan (-97.55% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 5.927 billion yuan (-13.02% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 93 million yuan (-57.93% yoy) [44]. - Highlights: Its liquid methionine production has high profitability and is a major profit contributor [47]. 4. Huayuan Convertible Bond - Rating: AA -; 1 - end closing price: 145.282 yuan; conversion premium rate: 9.47%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 32.14 [6][8]. - Company: Focused on building a complete vitamin D3 industrial chain, with products in the vitamin and pharmaceutical sectors [58]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 1.243 billion yuan (+13.58% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million yuan (+60.76% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 936 million yuan (-0.2% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 234 million yuan (-3.07% yoy) [58]. - Highlights: It is a leader in certain products, and is expanding its product portfolio and has achievements in pharmaceutical R & D [59]. 5. Xingye Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 1 - end closing price: 123.691 yuan; conversion premium rate: 40.16%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 5.11 [6][8]. - Company: One of the first joint - stock commercial banks in China, evolving into a modern financial service group [72]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 212.226 billion yuan (+0.66% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.205 billion yuan (+0.12% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 161.234 billion yuan (-1.82% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.083 billion yuan (+0.12% yoy) [72]. - Highlights: It has stable asset quality and scale growth, with a large customer base [73]. 6. Aima Convertible Bond - Rating: AA; 1 - end closing price: 126.979 yuan; conversion premium rate: 60.87%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 10.97 [6][8]. - Company: The leading enterprise in the electric two - wheeler industry, with self - developed and produced products [82]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 21.606 billion yuan (+2.71% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.988 billion yuan (+5.68% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 21.093 billion yuan (+20.78% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.907 billion yuan (+22.78% yoy) [82]. - Highlights: It may benefit from government subsidies and the implementation of new national standards, and has potential for improving gross margin [83]. 7. Chongyin Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 1 - end closing price: 128.332 yuan; conversion premium rate: 16.22%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 6.55 [6][8]. - Company: An early - established local joint - stock commercial bank in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, with a wide range of business operations [92]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 13.679 billion yuan (+3.54% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.117 billion yuan (+3.8% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 11.74 billion yuan (+10.4% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.879 billion yuan (+10.19% yoy) [92]. - Highlights: It may benefit from the development of the Chengdu - Chongqing economic circle, has stable asset growth, and has a good risk - control strategy [93][96]. 8. Tianye Convertible Bond - Rating: AA+; 1 - end closing price: 141.695 yuan; conversion premium rate: 26.15%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 163.89 [6][8]. - Company: A leading enterprise in the chlor - alkali chemical industry in Xinjiang, with an integrated circular economy industrial chain [105]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 11.156 billion yuan (-2.7% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 68 million yuan (+108.83% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 7.97 billion yuan (+2.2% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 7 million yuan (-28.79% yoy) [105]. - Highlights: It benefits from cost - reduction in raw materials and plans to increase dividend frequency, and its group is promoting coal - mine projects [107]. 9. Aorui Convertible Bond - Rating: AA -; 1 - end closing price: 160.557 yuan; conversion premium rate: 39.57%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 27.45 [6][8]. - Company: Focused on the R & D, production, and sales of complex APIs and formulations, leading in certain technical fields [120]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 1.476 billion yuan (+16.89% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 355 million yuan (+22.59% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 1.237 billion yuan (+13.67% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 354 million yuan (+24.58% yoy) [120]. - Highlights: It is optimizing its distribution network, expanding the market for its formulation products, and has high - quality customer resources [121]. 10. Yushui Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 1 - end closing price: 128.343 yuan; conversion premium rate: 35.36%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.26 [6][8]. - Company: The largest water supply and drainage integrated enterprise in Chongqing, with a monopoly position in the local market [134]. - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 6.999 billion yuan (-3.52% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 785 million yuan (-27.88% yoy). In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 5.568 billion yuan (+7.21% yoy), net profit attributable to shareholders was 779 million yuan (+7.1% yoy) [134]. - Highlights: It has a high market share, is expanding its business scope, and has achieved cost - control through intelligent applications [135]. Related Reports - "Pricing of Naipu Convertible Bond 02: First - day conversion premium rate of 28% - 33%", released on January 27, 2026 [3]. - "Pricing of Shangtai Convertible Bond: First - day conversion premium rate of 40% - 45%", released on January 27, 2026 [3]. - "Pricing of Lianrui Convertible Bond: First - day conversion premium rate of 43% - 48%", released on January 15, 2026 [3]. - "Outlook for US Inflation in 2026: High at first, then low, overall controllable", released on January 12, 2026 [3].

恒生医疗低开低走三连跌，截至收盘下跌3.62%。 其中康方生物大跌8.61%，中国生物下跌5.27%，石药 集团下跌4.69%，百济神州下跌4.11%，京东健康、翰森制药、药明生物等股跌幅均在3%上方。 恒生银行探底回升，盘中一度大跌1.84%，截至收盘下跌1.05%。其中大新金融下跌3.54%，大新银行下 跌2.33%，重庆银行下跌2.29%，中银香港下跌2.04%，郑州银行、渣打银行、汇丰控股等超10只个股跌 幅在1%上方。 开盘后直线跳水，随后全天弱势，截至收盘大跌2.23%。恒生科技跌幅居前，互联网、恒生医疗、大消 费等紧随其后；恒生银行相对抗跌。 恒生科技低开低走大跳水，截至收盘下跌3.99%。比亚迪股份大跌6.91%，中芯国际下跌4.24%，百度集 团下跌3.99%，快手下跌3.93%，阿里巴巴下跌3.49%，网易下跌3.46%。 内容只是个人观点，仅供参考，不作为投资依据！欢迎关注交流，互相学习、共同探讨！ ...

Market Overview - On February 2, the city commercial bank sector declined by 0.3% compared to the previous trading day, with Qilu Bank leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Bank Performance - Shanghai Bank (601229) closed at 66.6, up 1.62% with a trading volume of 821,000 shares and a transaction value of 776 million [1] - Beijing Bank (601169) closed at 5.35, up 0.94% with a trading volume of 2.4269 million shares and a transaction value of 1.304 billion [1] - Nanjing Bank (6001009) closed at 10.62, up 0.85% with a trading volume of 844,400 shares and a transaction value of 902 million [1] - Qilu Bank (601665) closed at 5.73, down 1.55% with a trading volume of 715,600 shares and a transaction value of 415 million [2] - Hangzhou Bank (600926) closed at 15.92, down 1.49% with a trading volume of 521,800 shares and a transaction value of 840 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 17.93 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 157.95 million [2] - Major banks like Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank had significant net inflows from institutional investors, with Shanghai Bank receiving 71.52 million, accounting for 9.22% of its total [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed a notable outflow from several banks, including Beijing Bank, which saw a retail net outflow of 64.17 million, representing 4.92% [3]

本期为银行社交媒体指数（2025年12月）。 本期为银行社交媒体指数（2025年12月）。 12月银行SMI总榜整体变化不大，仅赣州银行（11月Top19）、郑州银行（11月Top20）掉出榜单，长沙银行（Top13）和泰隆银行（Top18）上榜，名单进出 主要为运营质量较为不稳定的中小城商行。 在12月抖音高赞榜中，虽然网商银行的《画100家小店》依靠"肥娟夫妇"的暖心回访继续稳坐头把交椅，但用户的关注重心较11月已出现明显转变，专业陪 伴内容与抽象整活成为12月内容创作的核心方向。 年末市场震荡背景下，投资者情绪普遍焦虑，专业陪伴类内容顺势成为12月最大的流量黑马。招商银行App精准捕捉基民核心痛点，推出《小招说・朋友 说》系列节目，邀请基金经理与财经媒体人组局交流，以"老友对谈"的轻松形式，深度拆解基金挑选方法、固收+与FOF的核心区别等专业内容。该系列连 续更新五期，平均点赞量达到2万左右，表明在市场波动阶段，能切实缓解用户焦虑的专业干货，远比趣味段子更具传播吸引力。同样的逻辑也体现在兴业 银行钱大掌柜上，他们以"红烧肉"为引子，讲解中国生猪繁育产业从全国统一市场到"南繁北育"的格局变迁，这种让专业知 ...

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

行业周报 | 非银金融 券商业绩预告亮眼，保险有望延续估值修复 金融行业周报（2026/02/01） 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为+1.04%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.95pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金 融指数涨跌幅分别为-0.69%、+5.50%、-3.62%。2）本周银行（申万）涨跌 幅为+0.86%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.78pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为+0.35%、-0.26%、+3.11%、+2.06%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险Ⅱ(申万)涨跌幅为+5.50%，跑赢沪深 300 指 数 5.42pct。1 月保险股受"开门红"业绩高涨，后因监管降温进入震荡回 调。展望 2 月，保险股有望延续估值修复趋势：负债端，居民挪储趋势持续， 分红险凭借"保底+浮动"的收益优势成为承接居民资产迁徙的核心品种， 叠加 1 月"开门红"高增态势延续，头部险企保费增速有望持续领跑；资产 端，股市慢牛预期升温叠加利率中枢企稳，板块有望逐步从"流动性宽松驱 动"向"宏观政策加码+经济修复预期驱动"切换，投资收益提升路径明确 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 战略投资者拟扩围，利好银行长期资本补充 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 本报告导读： 证监会拟扩大可参与定增的战略投资者类型，并明确最低持股比例要求，利好上市 银行长期资本补充、金融机构合作深化，以及银行理财多元资产投资转型。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《银行快报陆续披露，25A 业绩稳健增 长》2026.01.25 商业银行《全年增量 3.34 万亿元，公募基金配置 占比提升 2.1pct 至 5.1%》2026.01.25 商业银行《国有大行投放力度较大，不良压力或 企稳》2026.01.23 商业银行《主动基金环比持平，被动基金增持》 2026.01.23 商业银行《利息净收入增速转正，业绩延续改善 趋势》2026.01.19 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 银行周报（2026/1/26-2026/1/30） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析 ...