Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Electric Grid Equipment ETF Guangfa (159320), which rose by 1.27% to 1.908 yuan with a trading volume of 25.56 million yuan as of the midday close on February 6 [1] - The major holdings of the Electric Grid Equipment ETF include companies such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, which increased by 0.94%, and Zhongtian Technology, which rose by 4.79%, among others [1] - The performance benchmark for the Electric Grid Equipment ETF is the return rate of the Hang Seng A-share Electric Grid Equipment Index, with a return of 88.21% since its establishment on December 12, 2024, and a one-month return of 12.09% [1]

Core Insights - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the space photovoltaic and ultra-high voltage sectors leading the gains, driven by significant capital inflows into related ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The electric grid equipment ETF rose by 1.33%, with a net subscription of 58 million units during the session [1] - The photovoltaic ETF from Huaxia increased by 0.1%, following a net inflow of over 4 million from the previous day [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Over 12.5 billion yuan has flowed into the electric grid equipment ETF since the beginning of the year, supported by three main factors: the surge in AI-driven electricity demand, a global upgrade of power grids, and a 4 trillion yuan investment plan by the State Grid [1] - The demand for electricity is expected to rise significantly due to AI, with an estimated 18 GW required for new GPU computing power by 2025, equivalent to the annual output of 15 nuclear power plants [1] - A global upgrade of power grids is anticipated, with the U.S. power supply gap projected to widen to 182 GW by 2030, prompting equipment manufacturers to expand internationally [1] - Domestic investments in the power grid are accelerating, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [1] Group 3: Industry Developments - SpaceX's acquisition of xAI aims to create a space-ground-computing ecosystem, indicating significant cross-industry advantages for domestic photovoltaic leaders, with space photovoltaic expected to emerge as a new business model [1] - The photovoltaic industry is set to focus on "anti-involution" strategies by 2026, as indicated in a recent meeting [1] Group 4: ETF Composition - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) has a high weight of 66.28% in ultra-high voltage, 55% in smart grid, and 14% in controllable nuclear fusion, featuring leading companies like Guodian NARI, TBEA, and Siyuan Electric [2] - The Huaxia photovoltaic ETF (515370) includes major players such as TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, and Sungrow Power, covering high-purity photovoltaic industries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic power equipment sector is benefiting from a resonance of investment both within and outside the network, with leading companies accelerating their overseas expansion [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Outlook - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," power generation investment has seen rapid growth driven by the increase in new energy installations, while grid investment has maintained steady growth but at a significantly lower rate than power generation investment [1] - The demand for main equipment such as transformers and switchgear remains strong, with a stable competitive landscape; however, the pace of ultra-high voltage (UHV) advancement is slightly below expectations, and flexible direct current applications are reaching a turning point [1] - The price of electric meters continues to decline, putting pressure on meter companies, but the implementation of new standards in 2025 is expected to drive a price recovery [1] Group 2: 2026 Domestic Investment Outlook - The State Grid Corporation is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the "15th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with potential for upward adjustments [2] - The report suggests focusing on UHV, smart meters, and distribution network directions in 2026, with opportunities for demand recovery and new product development in smart meters [2] Group 3: 2026 Export Outlook - The growth of new energy installations is a common reason for the continuous increase in global power investment, with significant demand elasticity for power equipment compared to traditional energy sources [3] - From 2016 to 2022, global grid investment averaged approximately 310 billion USD annually, projected to rise to 500 billion USD from 2023 to 2030, and nearly 800 billion USD by 2030 [3] - Since 2022, various factors have driven explosive growth in overseas demand, leading to a supply-side gap, with Chinese leading companies accelerating their overseas expansion [3] Group 4: AIDC Outlook for 2026 - The demand for upgraded power distribution architecture is increasing due to the continuous enhancement of AI server power, with the AIDC power distribution method expected to evolve along the UPS-HVDC-SST path [4] - The global AIDC power equipment market is projected to exceed 410 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 39% from 2024 to 2030 [4] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the application of 800V HVDC/SST in both domestic and international markets, creating new opportunities driven by technological changes [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 AIDC与电力设备2026年度投资策略 国内需求确定性夯实，出海与AIDC发展空间可期 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电力设备新能源 · 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市 | 证券分析师：王蔚祺 | 证券分析师：王晓声 | 证券分析师：袁阳 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005313 | 010-88005231 | 0755-22940078 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520080003 | S0980523050002 | S0980524030002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 u "十四五"电力设备行业复盘：网内外需求景气共振，龙头企业出海加速 "十四五"以来，在新能源装机放量带动下，电源投资高速增长；电网投资保持稳健增长，但增速显著低于电源投资。在电源和电网投资带动下，"十四五"国内电力设备需求呈现网内外景 气共振态势。网内市场方面，变压器、组合电 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Transformer Industry Industry Overview - The global transformer market is experiencing strong demand, with China accounting for 60% of global production capacity. The North American data center infrastructure supply chain is inadequate, leading to increased demand for Chinese transformers and extended delivery times of 2-3 years, indicating a severe market shortage [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - Domestic transformer factories are expected to remain at full production capacity until 2027. In the U.S., delivery times have increased from 50 weeks to 127 weeks, reflecting a continuous rise in demand for electrical equipment driven by data center construction and the aging power grid replacement cycle [1][5]. - The transformer industry is witnessing significant changes, particularly due to the growth in AI computing center demand, especially in overseas markets. Domestic companies are also seeing notable developments, including increased capital expenditures from major players like Alibaba [2][11]. - The AIDC sector is projected to have a positive development trend, with domestic bidding signals and events like NVIDIA's GTC conference expected to further drive technological upgrades [7]. Company Performance - **Siyuan Electric**: Historically high performance realization, benefiting from U.S. AIGC incremental orders. Expected to achieve a profit of 6 billion by 2027, with a market value potentially reaching 180 billion, and an additional 50 billion from AIGC options, totaling a market cap of 230 billion [1][9]. - **Jinpan**: Holds a first-mover advantage in the North American market, projected to achieve a profit of 1.6 billion by 2027, with a market value close to 50 billion. The overall reasonable market value is estimated to be around 80 billion, indicating a potential 70% growth [1][9]. - **Igor**: Highly linked to the North American market, expected to achieve a production value of 10 billion by 2027, with a profit of 800 million, leading to a reasonable market value exceeding 30 billion, indicating significant growth potential [1][9][10]. Market Dynamics - The investment growth rate in the transformer sector is maintained at 5-10%, with user-side demand growth significantly driven by data center construction [4]. - The U.S. market's delivery cycle extension and the ongoing replacement of aging power grids since 2021 indicate a sustained increase in demand for electrical equipment [5]. Future Trends - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology, with multiple overseas projects expected to materialize. Chinese power companies are well-positioned to collaborate with international firms, indicating a promising growth outlook [3][14][16]. - Domestic data center bidding is entering a high-growth cycle, with order growth rates outpacing revenue growth, suggesting an optimistic future outlook [11]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies like Zhongheng Electric are expected to leverage their rapid product iteration capabilities to compete effectively with foreign firms, which typically have longer product development cycles [12][13][15]. - The collaboration between Chinese companies and international giants is expected to enhance competitiveness and foster innovation in new products and technologies [15]. Conclusion - The transformer industry is poised for significant growth driven by domestic and international demand, technological advancements, and strategic collaborations. Companies like Siyuan Electric, Jinpan, and Igor are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with substantial market value growth anticipated by 2027 [1][9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The transformer industry is experiencing a significant surge in demand, with many factories operating at full capacity and orders extending to 2027, particularly for data center applications [1][3]. Industry Overview - The transformer export value in China is projected to reach 64.6 billion yuan by 2025, marking a nearly 36% increase from 2024. Exports to Asia are expected to grow by 65.39%, to Africa by 28.03%, and to Europe by over 138% [3]. - The average export price of transformers from China has risen to approximately $20,800 per unit [3]. - The demand for transformers is driven by the surge in electricity consumption from data centers due to the AI boom and the urgent need for upgrades in aging power grids in Europe and the U.S. [3]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. and European markets show a preference for local and allied brands due to ideological and national security concerns, which has allowed Chinese manufacturers to fill the supply gap created by local production shortages [4]. - The Chinese transformer industry is supported by long-term domestic demand factors, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for smart grid construction and the aging infrastructure in residential areas [4]. Performance Disparity - While most companies in the transformer industry are profitable, there is significant performance disparity among them. For instance, TBEA reported a net profit of 5.484 billion yuan, a 27.55% increase year-on-year, while companies like Igor and Sanbian Technology saw declines in net profit [5][6]. - The performance of companies is influenced by their focus on specific customer segments, with some heavily reliant on state grid orders, leading to volatility based on bidding cycles [6][7]. Future Outlook - The transformer industry is expected to enter a golden development period over the next decade, driven by increasing electricity demand and substantial investments in grid infrastructure [4][5]. - However, the industry faces challenges such as rising raw material prices and potential market saturation, which could pressure profit margins [7].

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 广东佛山某电气工厂的生产车间里，三条生产线正24小时三班倒赶工，待发往北美、欧洲的数据中心专用变压器堆满了仓库；江苏一家变压器企业的订单系 统显示，定制化产品排期已延至2027年底。这一幕，正是全球变压器产业爆发式增长的缩影。 变压器是电力系统的"中枢神经"，主要起到电压变换以及平衡电力供需的"流量控制器"等功能。 与此同时，我国也在近两年对电力基础设施提出了新的要求。国家发改委2024年3月发布的《关于新形势下配电网高质量发展的指导意见》进一步明确， 2025年需全面淘汰高耗能变压器，全社会高效节能变压器占比较2021年提升10个百分点以上，政策红利持续释放。 据央视财经，目前广东、江苏两大核心产区的变压器工厂产能利用率均维持在90%以上，部分龙头企业甚至达到满产状态，行业供需缺口持续扩大。 电网安全事件倒逼行业变革 全球变压器需求激增，制造重心向中国转移来自于两大需求叠加——欧洲电网升级投资提速以及北美地区为AIDC应用所储备的电力系统改革。 2025年4月28日，西班牙全国电力负荷在5秒内骤降15吉瓦导致本土电力系统全面瘫痪，跨国输电网络连锁反应导致葡萄牙同步停电，法国南部3 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 4, with the only electric grid equipment ETF (159326) experiencing a decline of 0.39% after an initial surge, while trading volume reached 394 million yuan, and stocks like Hangdian Co. and Hongsheng Huayuan hit the daily limit [1] - The electric grid equipment ETF has seen a net inflow of over 10 billion yuan this year, bringing its total size to 17.577 billion yuan, making it the largest power-related ETF in the market [1] - The global AI computing power boom has led to a persistent electricity shortage in data centers, with high-power and stable electricity supply becoming crucial for computing clusters, thus upgrading transformers to core infrastructure for computing power [1] Group 2 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, and distribution equipment [2] - The smart grid sector holds a significant weight of 88% in the index, while the ultra-high voltage segment accounts for 65%, both being the highest in the market [2] - The ETF includes leading companies such as TBEA, China XD Electric, and Baobian Electric, which are prominent players in the export market [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up while the ChiNext Index declined, and the electric grid equipment sector experienced a brief surge before retreating [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, the electric grid equipment ETF (159326), fell by 0.61% with a trading volume of 558 million yuan, while stocks like Hangzhou Electric and Hongsheng Huayuan hit the daily limit [1] - According to the General Administration of Customs, key power equipment exports are projected to reach 71.5 billion USD from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20%, with transformers, winding wires, insulators, and switchgear showing significant growth rates of 35%, 24%, 45%, and 29% respectively [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a potential acceleration in electric grid investment, with overseas supply unable to meet demand, leading to extended delivery times for power transformers and high-voltage cables in Europe and the U.S., which could extend into the 2030s [1] - The company believes that Chinese electric equipment manufacturers are entering a golden development period for overseas exports, with expectations for continued growth in both volume and price in 2026 [1] - According to Chengtong Securities, there is a pressing need for the replacement of aging electric grid equipment in developed economies, where over 20% of equipment has exceeded its 20-year lifespan, benefiting domestic electric grid companies amid increasing investment growth [1] Group 3 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF in the market tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as power transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, and distribution equipment [2] - The ETF includes leading companies in overseas markets such as Tebian Electric, China XD Electric, and Baobian Electric, showcasing its comprehensive industry coverage [2]

03 Feb 2026 11:18:42 ET │ 19 pages Vi e w p o i n t | China Diversified Utilities Higher Grid Capex Growth in 2026E; Lifting Solar & Wind Installations CITI'S TAKE PRC electricity demand growth in 2025 was +5.0% y/y, a deceleration of 1.8ppts from the previous year due to a warmer-than-usual winter in 1Q25. We expect electricity demand growth to accelerate to 6.5% y/y in 2026 based on a 1.3x multiple for annual electricity demand growth versus annual GDP growth, similar to those in 2020-24. Meanwhile, 2025 ...