Report Industry Investment Rating - Outlook: Oscillating with an upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is under impact, and the expectation of long - term resumption of shipping has weakened again. The tariff market is relatively optimistic. The low shipping capacity in weeks 45 and 46 supports the loading rates of OCEAN and GEMINI. There is still an expected price increase in mid - November. After the positive event on the macro - level is realized tomorrow, low - buying opportunities for contracts 12 and 02 can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Price - MSK will increase the peak - season surcharge to $300/FEU from November 12, up from $100/FEU at the beginning of November. YNL has lowered the shipping price in early November to $1850/FEU, a $50 decrease from the previous level. GEMINI: NSK's shipping price for the second week of November is $2200/FEB, and HPL's price in early November remains at $2135 - $2335. OCEAN: 00GL's price in the first half of November is $2150 - $2400/FEU. MSGSPA: YML's price in early November has been reduced from $1900 to $1850/FEU, while MSC, ONE, and HRN maintain their prices at $2265, $2135, and $1906/FEU respectively [1] Futures Contracts - Contracts 12 and 02 oscillated strongly today. The 12 - contract once rose more than 65 points during the session, reaching 1883.5 points, the highest since last Friday, with an increase of more than 3300 lots. At the close, the 12 - contract closed at 1871 points, up 5.08%; the 02 - contract rose 3.66% to 1606 points, with an increase of nearly 2000 lots. The increases of contracts 04, 06, and 08 are between 2.88% and 3.5% [1] Geopolitical and Trade Events - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered a "powerful strike" on Hamas, putting the cease - fire agreement brokered by the US into crisis. The Chinese and US leaders will hold a meeting on October 30 to exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the European shipping market, highlighting price fluctuations, supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical influences affecting the market [3][5][10]. Pricing Performance - The SCFI European line index showed a significant increase, with the December contract rising by 5.08% to 1871 points, marking a 15.32% increase over the past 20 trading days, with a trading volume of 34,500 contracts and a turnover of 3.18 billion yuan [3]. - The SCFI European line price reached 1246 USD/TEU, reflecting a weekly increase of 101 USD/TEU, indicating a price stabilization effort by shipping companies [5]. - The pricing for major shipping lines such as Maersk and CMA has seen substantial increases, with Maersk's large container rates rising by 550 USD to 2350 USD and CMA maintaining rates around 2731 USD [6]. Supply and Turnover - The shipping capacity statistics indicate a high operational capacity in the last week of October, with the GEMINI alliance increasing its capacity due to delayed schedules, resulting in a total capacity of 350,900 TEU [9]. - November's initial capacity remains relatively high at 328,000 TEU, but is expected to decrease significantly in the following weeks, potentially supporting price stabilization in mid-November [9]. - By December, the capacity is projected to be around 250,000 TEU, which may help in building a rolling pool to support price increases [9]. Demand Aspects - The demand for the European line is following seasonal trends, with a typical decline in demand from August to October, but a decrease in booking pressure is expected as shipping companies prepare for the year-end peak season [17]. - The container throughput at domestic ports reached 6.431 million TEU in the 42nd week, reflecting a 3.61% increase month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in demand [17]. - The macroeconomic indicators show a rebound in the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI to 50, with service sector PMI rising to 52.6, suggesting a positive outlook for demand [17]. Market Perspectives - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Gaza, are expected to delay the resumption of shipping routes in the Red Sea, which may influence market valuations [20]. - The new shipbuilding market is in an upward cycle, indicating that oversupply may continue to exert pressure on freight rates [20]. - The market sentiment is currently mixed, with expectations of price increases in November driven by shipping companies' pricing strategies and changes in cargo volumes [20][21]. Additional Insights - Recent price increases by major shipping companies have boosted market confidence for November price hikes, with Maersk's pricing strategy being particularly influential [22]. - The geopolitical landscape, including trade tensions between the US and China, continues to impact shipping demand, with expectations of a decline in trade volumes as a result of tariffs and other regulatory measures [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, focus on the results of Sino-US tariff negotiations; on the shipping company side, pay attention to whether there will be a price increase notice for the second half of November [1][4] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year's long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed navigation [5] - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no current arbitrage strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 28, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,383.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,535.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1548.70, 1162.70, 1374.00, 1482.00, 1127.10, and 1788.30 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 24 is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 27 is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs, and in December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][6] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli - Palestinian conflict may affect shipping routes and supply chains. For example, the conflict in Gaza may reduce the probability of resumed navigation in February [2][5] 5. Demand and European Economy - If the Sino - US tariffs are partially reduced, it will promote the recovery of demand on the US line and support the prices of European routes to some extent. The shipping companies' adjustment of supply to maintain high freight rates is also related to the demand and economic situation in Europe [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual implementation prices in the first half of November are gradually being revised downward, and attention should be paid to whether there will be price increase notices for the second half of November next week [7]. - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clearer, but there are significant differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price due to factors such as vessel delays, the intersection of low - and high - priced vessels, and price opacity [6]. - For the December contract, trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipowners will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next year's long - term agreement negotiations. The trading rhythm will involve alternating between price increase expectations and actual implementation until delivery [7]. - The February 2026 contract may have significant expectation differences but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase notices. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1420/2370, and HPL has price increase notices for November [1]. - **Geopolitical Factor**: The US has agreed to postpone the opening of the Rafah Crossing until all Israeli detainees' remains are handed over. The crossing is an important channel for humanitarian aid to Gaza [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly container shipping capacity from China to European base ports in October is 32.41 million TEU, 29.39 million TEU in November, and 32.18 million TEU in December. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Counter - measures and Their Impact - China has taken counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharge, and the US will also impose port fees on Chinese - related vessels. However, the impact on the European route is relatively small as the number of US - flagged vessels is limited [4]. 3.4 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The prices of some shipping alliances have been revised downward in the second half of October. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - **December Contract**: It focuses on the trading rhythm. Shipowners will adjust supply to maintain high freight rates. The trading will alternate between price increase expectations and actual implementation [7]. - **February 2026 Contract**: It may have significant expectation differences but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages. If the duration of price - holding contracts is extended and high prices are realized in January 2026, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract [8]. 3.5 Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU have been delivered [9]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The December contract is expected to be strongly volatile. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No arbitrage opportunities are currently available [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the additional empty sailings in November may promote the better implementation of the price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7] - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharge have relatively little impact on the European line [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 22, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1582.90, EC2604 contract is 1171.40, EC2606 contract is 1353.30, EC2608 contract is 1474.80, EC2510 contract is 1136.60, and EC2512 contract is 1788.30 [7] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes show price changes of different shipping companies from Shanghai to Rotterdam in October and November. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 45 quote is 1410/2350; HPL's price in the second half of October is 1185/1935, and in the first half of November is 1535/2535, etc. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] - The SCFIS on October 20, 2025, slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The SCFIS on October 13 was 1031.6, and on October 20 was 1140.38 [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 5 empty sailings and 5 TBNs (expected to turn into empty sailings later), and in December, there are 5 TBNs [3] - As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 963,800 TEU; 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 218,840 TEU [8] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: On October 22, 2025, the Israeli parliament passed a bill in a preliminary vote to extend Israeli sovereignty to the West Bank, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [2] - China will implement counter - measures against US USTR port surcharges next week, and the US will also impose port fees on Chinese - related ships. The number of US - owned, US - flagged, and US - built ships is limited, and the impact on the European line is relatively small [4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is affected by factors such as ship delays, the intersection of low - price and high - price ships, and price opacity, leading to large differences in the market's prediction of the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading rhythm is mainly about trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. The additional empty sailings in November reflect the shipping companies' willingness to support prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The counter - measure taken by China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European routes [4]. - The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations, and the 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5]. - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7]. - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase letters. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1410/2350, and HPL has price increase letters for November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On October 21, local time, Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence officials met with Hamas representatives in Doha to discuss the Gaza situation and the implementation of the cease - fire agreement, but more details were not disclosed [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October is 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations. The final SCFIS index on the 27th is estimated to be higher than 1140.38 points, and the delivery settlement price of the 10 - month contract may be higher than 1110 points. The market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate high. The trading process will involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [6]. - **February 2026 Contract**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. If the shipping companies' price - holding period is extended, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract price [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [9]. 3.5 Ship Delivery - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, the SCFIS slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade in different rhythms, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. - The counter - measure of China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European line [3]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 20, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1522.00, EC2604 is 1155.10, EC2606 is 1330.30, EC2608 is 1440.30, EC2510 is 1100.10, and EC2512 is 1682.00. The 10 - month contract has a high open interest, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the trading rhythm is expected to follow the pattern of trading price increase expectations and actual implementation [4][5][6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 17, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1145 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 1936 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the US) was 2853 dollars/FEU. On October 20, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1140.38 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 863.46 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to October 2025, 211 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. As of October 17, 2025, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU. The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There were 4 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [2][6]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and has handed over the remains of Israeli hostages to the Red Cross. There is a counter - measure between China and the US regarding port fees for related ships, but it has a relatively small impact on the European line [2][3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific analysis of demand and European economy data in the content provided, but it can be inferred that the shipping companies' supply - side adjustment for freight rates is related to the need to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation to ensure stable revenue [4][5].

Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has announced the winter-spring schedule for 2025, with domestic flight schedules contracting for two consecutive seasons, showing a decrease of 1.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [1] - Domestic average ticket prices have increased by 5.9%, with an average daily passenger load factor of 87.9%, which is an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The international market is experiencing a peak after the summer season, with daily international passenger flights exceeding 2000, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - Shipping giants like MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have collectively raised prices on multiple routes, with increases ranging from $600 to $2000 per container, indicating a structural upward cycle in the shipping industry [1] - Analysts attribute the price hikes to a combination of reduced capacity at European and American ports, adjustments in Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [1] - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average price of jet fuel in October showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from fiscal policies, with potential cost advantages from falling oil prices, although exchange rate pressures remain [1] Industry Performance - Domestic ticket prices have turned positive, increasing by 3.0% from week 36 to week 41, aided by industry "de-involution" and improved revenue management by airlines [2] - The decline in oil prices is anticipated to alleviate cost pressures, enhancing airlines' profitability [2] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is also seen as a significant support factor for the industry [2] Related Companies - China Eastern Airlines (00670) [3] - China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) [3] - Air China (601111) (00753) [3] - Cathay Pacific Airways (00293) [3]

Group 1 - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has announced the winter-spring schedule for 2025, with domestic flight schedules contracting for two consecutive seasons, showing a decrease of 1.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [1] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has increased by 5.9%, with an average daily passenger load factor of 87.9%, which is an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - International airlines are experiencing a peak in operations, with an average of over 2000 international passenger flights per day, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the National Day holiday in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Major shipping companies, including MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have collectively raised prices on multiple routes, with increases ranging from $600 to $2000 per container, indicating a structural upward cycle in the shipping industry after months of low demand [1] - Analysts attribute the recent price hikes to a combination of factors, including reduced capacity at European and American ports, adjustments in Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [1] - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average price of jet fuel in October showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, which may benefit civil aviation demand and reduce cost pressures for airlines [1][2] Group 3 - Domestic ticket prices have turned positive, increasing by 3.0% from week 36 to week 41, supported by improved revenue management by airlines and a low comparative base [2] - The decline in oil prices is expected to alleviate cost pressures, aiding airlines in achieving profit elasticity, while the appreciation of the Renminbi is also seen as a significant advantage [2] Group 4 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed airlines include China Eastern Airlines (00670), China Southern Airlines (01055), Air China (00753), and Cathay Pacific Airways (00293) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) for this week is wide - range fluctuations. It's necessary to pay more attention to supply - side changes, especially the shipping schedule delays from late November to December caused by port congestion in Europe, which potentially benefit the 2512 contract. The 2512 contract is recommended to be traded with a wide - range fluctuation strategy, and the 2602 contract can also be considered for low - buying opportunities, mainly through 02 - 04 positive spreads for rolling long positions [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Spot Freight and Spot Index Tracking - The average market freight for 43 weeks was 1108 dollars for 20GP and 1812 dollars for 40GP. The SCFIS European Line index on October 13th was 1031.80 points, and it's expected to be around 1100 points on October 20th. The freight of the PA alliance loosened in late October, falling to 1300 - 1500 dollars/FEU [12][14][15] Seasonal Freight Trends of Major Global Routes - The SCFI and NCFI show the seasonal freight trends of major global routes, including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, Shanghai - North America, etc [17][18][20] Demand Side China's Export Perspective - In September 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate rebounded to 8.2%. Exports to the EU, Africa, and ASEAN remained strong, with the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU rising to 14.2% [26] Asia's Export to Europe Perspective - From January to August 2025, the cumulative container trade volume from Asia to Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) was 13.18 million TEU, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4] Asia's Export to North America Perspective - In January 2025, the container trade volume from Asia to North America was 2.1188 million TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [33] US Import Volume Weekly Tracking - The data shows the weekly container import volume of the US from the world, India, China, etc., updated to October 9th [36][37][38] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - Events include the Middle East geopolitical situation, European port operation efficiency, and Southeast Asian extreme weather. For example, Tropical Storm "Ramil" may affect port operations in South China Sea areas [45][46][47] Shipping Schedule Table - The weekly average capacity in November remained around 300,000 TEU/week (excluding 2 pending voyages), with a month - on - month increase of 16.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. There are many pending voyages in December, and the capacity may be significantly revised later [4][50] Dynamic Capacity - In the past week, the speed of 8,000 - 11,999TEU container fleets was around 15 knots, and the idle capacity of 8 - 11,999TEU container fleets was 14 ships as of October 10th [59] Turnover Efficiency - Data shows the congestion situations of ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and Asia [61][63][65] Static Capacity - In the past three months, the top ten liner companies received new 12,000+TEU container ships, with some deployed on European, American, and Latin American routes. In the next three months, they are expected to receive 18 new 12,000+TEU container ships [74][75][76]