Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 3.33%, reaching a new high since the rebound in September 2022 [1] - The price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF's underlying index is 2.41, which is at a relatively low level, indicating good medium to long-term investment value [1] - The basic chemical sector is expected to see an upward trend starting in 2026, driven by resilient domestic and external demand, as well as improvements in market structure [1] Group 2: Metal Sector Insights - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has shown a significant cumulative increase of 181.27% since its inception, outperforming other non-ferrous metal indices [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, supported by global monetary easing and strategic resource positioning [2] - The expected net profit growth for the non-ferrous metal ETF's underlying index is 54.5% in 2025, leading among its peers, with a continued growth forecast of 21.0% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Chemical ETF has a diversified portfolio, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong performers [2] - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by strong and sustained growth potential, making it an attractive investment opportunity compared to other indices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong surge driven by price increases in lithium battery materials, with significant capital inflows into chemical ETFs over the past three days, totaling 9.61 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector's recent performance is attributed to four main factors: 1. The Producer Price Index (PPI) has turned positive for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also shown a slight increase [1] 2. The photovoltaic industry is focusing on self-discipline and reducing excess capacity, which is expected to stabilize the market [1] 3. Lithium battery material companies are experiencing a supply-demand mismatch due to increased storage demand and cautious expansion after a previous downturn, leading to rising prices [1] 4. Phosphate chemical products are benefiting from the positive outlook in lithium battery demand, with related companies performing well [2] Group 2: Market Indicators - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index has risen by 2.66%, with significant gains in individual stocks such as Xinzhou Bang (16.21%) and Tian Ci Materials (9.02%) [3] - The chemical ETF has increased by 2.48%, reflecting the overall performance of the chemical sector [3] Group 3: Major Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 44.83% of the index, including Wan Hua Chemical and Tian Ci Materials [4]

Core Insights - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has shown a positive trend, with a 0.98% increase as of November 13, 2025, and significant gains in constituent stocks such as Lianhong Xinke and Cangge Mining [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has also performed well, with a 0.95% increase and a notable 6.83% rise over the past week, indicating strong investor interest [1][4] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 8.41 million yuan over the last four days, reaching a total share count of 201 million and a scale of 170 million yuan, both marking a one-year high [1] Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has recorded a 27.44% increase in net value over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 15.86% since its inception [4] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 6.31% over the last six months [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 56.05% of the total, with Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum being the most significant contributors [4] Stock Performance - Key stocks and their performance include: - Wanhua Chemical: +0.04%, 10.47% weight - China Petroleum: -0.80%, 7.63% weight - Salt Lake Co.: +6.06%, 6.44% weight - China Petroleum & Chemical: -1.05%, 6.44% weight - Cangge Mining: +6.30%, 3.82% weight [6]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant rally, with stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Lianhong New Materials hitting the daily limit, and New Zobon rising over 15% [1] - The Chemical ETF (516020) reflects this trend, showing a price increase of 2.96% [1] - Major inflows into the basic chemical sector reached 11.632 billion, with a total of 50.034 billion over the past five days, leading among 30 sectors [5] Group 2 - New Zobon has announced its strategic investment in Shilei Fluorine Materials, which produces lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for lithium-ion battery electrolytes, with current production capacity at 24,000 tons per year, expected to increase to 36,000 tons by the end of 2025 [2] - The rising price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is gradually being reflected in electrolyte pricing, with new contracts set to consider the latest raw material prices, enhancing transmission efficiency [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the chemical sector is currently undervalued, with potential for upward movement due to oil price rebounds and ongoing efforts to reduce "involution" competition [3] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-industry index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Potash [3] - The ETF provides a more efficient way to invest in the chemical sector, with options for investors to access through linked funds [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.97% as of the latest report, reaching a peak intraday increase of 2.1% [1][2] - Lithium battery stocks have surged, with notable gains from companies such as Lianhong Xinke, which hit the daily limit, and others like Xinzhou Bang and Tianci Materials, which rose by over 15% and 9% respectively [1][2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has skyrocketed, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 CNY per ton, doubling since mid-October due to a mismatch between supply and demand [2][3] Group 2 - The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate is affecting the electrolyte segment, creating a positive feedback loop within the industry, with a short-term expectation of a tight supply-demand balance [3] - As of November 12, the Chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.41, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Looking ahead, the basic chemical sector is expected to see an upward trend starting in 2026, driven by improved domestic and external demand, alongside a reduction in capital expenditure growth since June 2025 [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Investors can also consider the Chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 13, 2025 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data 2.1 Futures Information - BR主力合约(12) price on November 12 was 10430, with a daily change of 190 and a weekly change of 125 [4] - Open interest on November 12 was 76397, with a daily change of -5644 and a weekly change of -7544 [4] - Trading volume on November 12 was 151513, with a daily change of 62362 and a weekly change of 23369 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on November 12 was 12610, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 310 [4] - Long - short ratio on November 12 was 30.29, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -4 [4] 2.2 Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - BR basis on November 12 was -30, with a daily change of -190 and a weekly change of -25 [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on November 12 was 520, with a daily change of -40 and a weekly change of 125 [4] - 12 - 01 spread on November 12 was 35, with a daily change of -30 and a weekly change of -45 [4] - 01 - 02 spread on November 12 was -5, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -5 [4] - RU - BR spread on November 12 was 4790, with a daily change of -65 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - NR - BR spread on November 12 was 1750, with a daily change of -135 and a weekly change of -75 [4] 2.3 Spot (Domestic/International) - Shandong market price on November 12 was 10400, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - Transfar market price on November 12 was 10400, with a daily change of 150 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on November 12 was 10300, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on November 12 was 1400, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -50 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on November 12 was 1682, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -12 [4] 2.4 Profit - Spot processing profit on November 12 was 907, with a daily change of -179 and a weekly change of -2 [4] - Import profit on November 12 was -1365, with a daily change of 0 [4] - Export profit on November 12 was 2296, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -209 [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data 3.1 Spot Price - Shandong market price on November 12 was 7150, with a daily change of 175 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - Jiangsu market price on November 12 was 6950, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on November 12 was 6900, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - CFR China price on November 12 was 790, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -30 [4] 3.2 Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data on November 12 was N/A [4] - Carbon four extraction profit data was N/A [4] - Import profit on November 12 was 446, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - Export profit on November 12 was -1072, with a daily change of -230 and a weekly change of -1690 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on November 12 was 1275, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - ABS production profit data was N/A [4] - SBS production profit on November 12 was -90, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -300 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and the ongoing adjustment of the real - estate market [1]. Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly declined, still at a low level [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India has increased the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter [1]. - Traders are starting to wait and see, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction [1]. - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline, reaching the lowest level in recent years. The real - estate market needs time to improve [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are coming on stream, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1]. - The maintenance of production enterprises such as Inner Mongolia Sanlian is about to end, cost support is weakening, futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, PVC futures prices have fallen below the previous low, the market is sluggish, trading has not improved, and social inventory has increased slightly [1]. 2.期现行情 - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,572 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,598 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,581 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.22%. The position volume decreased by 9,251 lots to 1,397,880 lots [2]. 3.基差方面 - On November 12, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,515 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,581 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 66 yuan per ton, weakening by 14 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 4.基本面跟踪 Supply - The output of devices such as Ningbo Zhengyang and Inner Mongolia Yili has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in production since August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into production in early September and approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% [5]. - The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the construction area of houses was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the completion area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [5]. - As of the week of November 9, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week, reaching the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. Inventory - As of the week of November 6, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, a 26.42% increase compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high [6].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a continued low-level fluctuation, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of 1.34% as of the report, after a drop of 2.57% during trading [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery and coal chemical sectors are leading the declines, with Tianqi Materials down over 5% and Luxi Chemical down over 4% [1] - The market for phosphate rock remains tight due to multiple factors, including tightening environmental policies and slow new capacity additions, which is expected to keep prices high [2] Group 2 - The chemical sector has been in a long-term bottoming phase, and with the recent increase in PPI, industrial product prices are expected to rise, enhancing the investment value of the chemical sector [3] - The basic chemical sector is anticipated to see an upward trend starting in 2026, with a focus on resilient domestic and foreign demand [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap stocks [3][5] Group 3 - Phosphate rock prices are maintaining high levels, with the average market price for 30% grade phosphate rock at 1017 CNY/ton as of November 11 [4] - Leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co. are positioned to benefit from the rising chemical prices, while the ETF also includes allocations to other sectors like phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer [5]

Core Points - Fund manager Li Deqing has resigned from six funds due to personal reasons, effective November 7, 2025 [2][3] - Li Deqing has no other funds under management following this resignation [2] - The funds managed by Li Deqing include the Xin'ao Hengsheng Mixed Fund and the Xin'ao Xinyu 6-Month Holding Period Bond Fund, among others [2][3] Fund Performance Summary - The Xin'ao Xinyu 6-Month Holding Period Bond Fund has a net asset value of only 21.76 million yuan as of the end of Q3, with a single institution holding 45.88% of its shares [3] - This fund has experienced a decline, with its net asset value falling below 50 million yuan for 60 consecutive working days, prompting the fund company to report to regulatory authorities [3] - Since its inception on March 21, 2024, the fund has seen a unit net value growth of 7.02%, underperforming its benchmark by 4.44 percentage points [4] - The Xin'ao Hengsheng Mixed Fund has a net asset value of approximately 53.44 million yuan as of Q3, also nearing the threshold for a mini-fund [4] - This fund has recorded a unit net value growth of only 0.74% since its inception on September 24, 2021, lagging behind its benchmark by 14.62 percentage points [4] Holdings Overview - The Xin'ao Xinyu 6-Month Holding Period Bond Fund holds 4.26% in stocks and 59.12% in bonds, with top holdings including Zijin Mining, Tencent Holdings, and Alibaba [4] - The Xin'ao Hengsheng Mixed Fund has a stock allocation of 20% and a bond allocation of 59.92%, with similar top holdings to the Xin'ao Xinyu fund, including Alibaba and Tencent [4][5]

丙烯期货周报 大宗商品研究所 温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 供应端10月末利华益维远60万吨PDH装置重启，东华张家港60万吨PDH装置预计11月初重启。镇海炼化60万吨蒸汽裂解 装置，万华化学52万吨丙烷裂解装置分别预计11月底和12月初重启。国内丙烯负荷预计维持在78%高负荷左右。丙烯下 游衍生品价格普遍下跌，对原料采购心态较为谨慎，丙烯仍处于投产周期，工厂库存高位，市场供应压力 大。下游需求占 比最大的聚丙烯的开工率持续低迷，多数下游衍生品行业利润欠佳的现状短期内难以改善，在丙烯下跌趋势中持续观望情 绪较浓，综合来看丙烯市场缺乏强劲成本拉动和需求端显著改善的前提下，仍然维持弱势。 【交易策略】 GALAXY FUTURES 3 丙烯跌至年内低位 期权：卖看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 单边：震荡偏弱。 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 套利：观望。 第二章 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 ...