Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous and steel sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a cross-year market for gold and copper may unfold, making it an opportune time to invest in non-ferrous metals [9][10]. - It highlights that the copper supply shortage is expected to continue, which may drive up copper prices, while strict control over smelting capacity could lead to improved profitability for midstream players [9][10]. - The report also emphasizes the bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [9][10]. - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, the report suggests that despite recent stock dilution, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain intact, presenting opportunities for investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes a 3.37% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a significant rise in copper prices due to supply constraints and inflation expectations [9][10]. - It highlights the historical high copper premium set by Codelco, which is expected to further tighten supply [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in copper, gold, and aluminum sectors [9][10]. Steel Industry - The report indicates a slight decrease in iron and steel production, with rebar consumption at 2.28 million tons, down 1.23% week-on-week but up 1.15% year-on-year [16][21]. - It mentions that overall steel inventory continues to decline, with total social and steel mill inventories down by 2.15% [23][24]. - The profitability of most steel products has significantly improved due to rising costs, with the average price index for common steel rising by 0.42% [26][35]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [39][40]. - It also notes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, with October 2025 production reaching 1.68 million units, up 19.94% year-on-year [43][46]. - The report highlights price increases in lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate priced at 93,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% week-on-week [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities opened nearly 9% lower due to allegations of information disclosure violations and illegal financing, leading to an investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.26% [5][6]. - The industrial metals sector saw significant gains, with silver and other non-ferrous metals rising over 7% and 6% respectively, including companies like Jiangxi Copper and Shenghe Resources [4]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 107.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, with 338.7 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [7].

消息面上，11月30日，江西铜业公告称，公司已向伦敦证券交易所上市公司SolGold Plc提交两项非约束 性现金要约，拟以每股26便士的价格收购其全部股份。目前公司持有目标公司12.19%的股份，但该收 购事宜仍处于非正式要约阶段，且已被目标公司董事会拒绝。公司保留提出正式要约的权利，但具体是 否提出存在不确定性。根据英国《城市收购及合并守则》，公司需在2025年12月26日前发布正式要约公 告或明确放弃收购的公告。 江西铜业股份(00358)高开近5%，截至发稿，涨4.82%，报32.16港元，成交额1000.18万港元。 ...

09:27 天风证券低开近9%，公司因涉嫌信息披露违法违规、违法提供融资被证监会立案。 | | 4.40 -0.43 -8.90% | | | 天风证券 1 601162 交易 | | 立即 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SSE CNY 9:25:01 交易中 查看L2全景 | | | 疑似减持受限通 融 △ □ + | | | | 委比 | 92.91% 委差 | 130084 | | Wind ESG评级 A | | 详情 | | 中古 | 4.45 | 2074 | रेस | -1.79% 120日 | | 10.55% | | 卖口 | 4.44 | 528 | RE | -8.90% 250日 | | -12.70% | | | 4.43 | 2043 | 20日 | -16.03% 52周高 | | 6.12 | | | 4.42 | 296 | 60日 | -24.66% 52周低 | | 3.57 | | | 4.41 | 21 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025Q3 | | 三星英 王三三 | 4.40 | 3 ...

港股12月首日三大指数迎来高开行情，恒生指数涨0.34%，国企指数涨0.31%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。 大型科技股多数呈现上涨，阿里巴巴、小米皆有涨幅；LME铜价创新高，铜业股集体强势，江西铜业 股份涨近5%，五矿资源涨近4%，铝业股、黄金股等有色金属齐涨，重型基建股、内房股、汽车股活 跃。另外，燃气股、家电股、建材水泥股走低。(格隆汇) ...

摘要：短期市场在政策托底与估值支撑下，仍存在小幅修复空间，但修复延续性已边际减弱，大概率进 入震荡分化与修复放缓的格局。需密切跟踪量能变化、资金流向与政策动向，在方向明确前保持战略耐 心与操作灵活性，以稳健策略应对潜在波动。 沪指11月累计跌1.67%，月中续创十年新高后震荡回落，终结月线六连阳。创业板指本月累计跌 4.23%，创业板指、深成指呈现"先抑后扬"的整体格局，随着11月下旬算力硬件概念的带动下，逐步小 幅修复前期跌幅。从板块来看，本月热点轮动加快，市场热点主要集中在电池产业链、海南、福建、算 力硬件等方向。电池板块中涌现出多只翻倍股，海峡两岸概念涨幅较大，算力硬件概念股11月中下旬线 轴走强，多股创历史新高。此外，部分银行股月中均创新高。 中国人民银行、科技部等部门联合召开科技金融统筹推进机制第一次会议 11月27日，中国人民银行、科技部等部门联合召开科技金融统筹推进机制第一次会议。中国人民银行行 长潘功胜、科技部部长阴和俊出席会议并讲话。中国人民银行副行长朱鹤新主持会议，科技部副部长邱 勇、金融监管总局副局长周亮、中国证监会副主席陈华平、国务院国资委党委委员肖宗辉出席。 会议指出，党的二十届四中 ...

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

【2025分析师大会】 中国顶级投资盛会丨邢志强、但斌、李蓓等投资大咖谈牛市、谈AI、谈未来…… 全文精修版+现场高清PPT！但斌最新观点：国内对标谷歌的公司只有两家 中国顶流研究天团都有谁？第七届金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜出炉 【头条要闻】 贵金属风云又起！白银上演"逼空大战"，再创新高后还有多大上涨空间？ 11月以来，COMEX白银期货累计涨幅达到16%。沪银主力合约夜盘最高触及13239元/千克，内外盘联 动创出新高。沪上一位贵金属分析师对记者分析称，白银价格的大幅上涨并非偶然。近期，全球经济形 势的不确定性以及市场对通胀预期的上升，为白银等贵金属提供了有力的支撑。据芝商所"美联储观 察"最新数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已达85.4%。约一周前，这一概率预计约40%。 11月最牛金股涨超60%！12月金股出炉，科技与消费受青睐（名单） 随着11月交易收官，最新一期的券商金股出炉。从目前已披露的12月金股名单来看，电子、电力设备、 医药生物、食品饮料等行业受到集中关注，国产算力、机器人、消费复苏等主题热度较高。展望12月行 情，券商普遍认为市场仍处牛市，中长期仍看好科技成长。 11月制造业PMI回升 ...

记者从日前在长沙召开的全国促进民营经济发展壮大现场会上获悉，国家发展改革委将进一步拓宽市场准入空间，强化要素支持保障，加快组建国家创业投 资引导基金，切实增强民营企业获得感。（新华社） 商务部决定自12月1日起，对原产于日本、美国、韩国和马来西亚的进口聚苯硫醚所适用的反倾销措施进行期终复审调查。（新华财经） 11月制造业PMI升至49.2% 景气水平有所改善制造业企业信心增强 中国成为全球最大绿色债券市场今年绿债发行总额同比增长92%至1018亿美元全球占比达20% 主要产油国宣布维持明年前三个月暂停增产计划当前石油市场基本面稳健将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会11月30日发布数据显示，11月，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 水平有所改善；生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心有所增强。非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比 上月下降0.6个百分点。综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。（新华财经） 11月，钢铁行业PMI为48%，比上月下降1.2个百分点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper is pursuing a non-binding cash offer to acquire all shares of SolGold Plc, with the latest offer priced at 26 pence per share, approximately 2.43 RMB [2][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Jiangxi Copper submitted two non-binding cash offers to SolGold's board on November 23 and November 28, 2025 [2] - The latest offer aims to acquire all shares of SolGold at a price of 26 pence per share [2] - SolGold is an exploration and development company with its core asset being the Cascabel project in Ecuador, which has significant mineral resources [2] Group 2: Financial Transactions - In March 2025, Jiangxi Copper's wholly-owned subsidiary acquired 157 million shares of SolGold, representing 5.24% of its issued shares, for a total consideration of 18.0712 million USD, approximately 130 million RMB [3] - Following this transaction, Jiangxi Copper holds a total of 366 million shares in SolGold, amounting to 12.19% of its issued shares, making it the largest single shareholder [3] Group 3: Future Plans and Uncertainty - Jiangxi Copper expressed intentions to provide technical consulting services for SolGold's Cascabel project, contingent upon reaching an agreement with SolGold [3] - The acquisition process is still in the non-binding offer stage, and both offers have been rejected by SolGold's board, leaving the possibility of a formal offer uncertain [3]