证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260302 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数下跌。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.47%，收报 4182.59 点；深证成指跌 0.20%，收报 14465.79 点；科创 50 跌 1.56%，收报 1464.77 点；创业板指跌 0.49%，收报 3294.16 点。总体上，全天个股涨少跌 多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1141 只个股上涨，4276 只个股下跌，61 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 30207 亿元，较上个交易日放量 5327 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，石油石化、煤炭、有色金属、 国防军工和通信等行业领涨，涨幅分别为7.95%、3.77%、3.17%、2.47%和1.88%， 传媒、计算机、社会服务、美容护理和商贸零售等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 3.98%、 2.88%、2.68%、2.44%、2.41%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为油 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the historical trend of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index, which shows an 82% probability of rising in the three trading days before the Lunar New Year, while the post-holiday performance does not exhibit a significant calendar effect, with a rise probability between 40% and 60% [1] Group 2 - The recent decline in Hong Kong's AI sector since January 30 is attributed to global AI adjustments and various disturbances such as antitrust investigations, marketing activities during the Lunar New Year, tax rate changes, and geopolitical risks [3] - Antitrust investigations are seen as isolated incidents that can help set operational standards for the industry, while marketing during the Lunar New Year is expected to broaden the customer base and enhance AI product iterations [3] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) passively tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with its top ten holdings including major tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, which collectively account for nearly 77% of the fund [4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Internet ETF include Alibaba (14.71%), Tencent (14.64%), Xiaomi (12.29%), Kuaishou (4.21%), and Bilibili (3.82%), among others, indicating a strong concentration in leading technology and AI application companies [6]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 数据速看： 1.主力资金：近两周主力资金合计净流出4076.56亿元，主力资金净流入行业为银行，主力资金净流出额前三的行业为电子、电力设备和计 算机。 2.融资融券数据：当前市场融资融券余额为24917.03亿元，较上期下降0.29%，其中融资余额24743.85亿元，融券余额173.17亿元。本 期两融日均交易额为2070.58亿元，较上期下降16.13%，其中融资日均净买入2063.64亿元，较两周前下降16.13%，融券日均净卖出 6.94亿元，较上期下降15.67%。近两周融资净买入前三的行业分别为电力设备、基础化工和国防军工；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为计算 机、传媒和汽车。 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 3.涨跌情况：近两周全市场下跌家数高于上涨家数，近两周只有两个行业实现上涨，为食品饮料和银行，跌幅前三的行业为电力设备、电子 和通信。 4.强弱分析：近两周全部A股强弱分析得分为3.17，沪深300强弱分析得分3.35，创业板强弱分析得分3.3 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs, highlighting the resilience of the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors amidst market fluctuations [5][19]. Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile PE ratios of 98.89%, 91.35%, and 46.11% respectively, indicating a high valuation environment [1]. - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.37%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rose by 0.18%, showcasing sector resilience [17][19]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net inflows include: - Electric Power Equipment: 2.522 billion - Basic Chemicals: 2.065 billion - Machinery: 0.805 billion [2][11] - The sectors with the highest net outflows are: - Communication: -4.440 billion - Media: -4.133 billion - Computers: -3.133 billion [2][11]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - Chemical ETF: 2.37% increase, with a 6-month performance of 44.66% [14]. - Green Energy ETF: 1.51% increase, with a 6-month performance of 35.35% [14]. - New Materials ETF: 1.32% increase, with a 6-month performance of 38.61% [14]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF has been identified as part of a long-term investment strategy, with expectations of high profitability lasting 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic support [19]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Securities continues to favor investment opportunities in the chemical sector, recommending focus on leading companies and price recovery products [19]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain high profitability driven by macroeconomic factors and industry upgrades [19].

Group 1 - The market sentiment indicator as of January 30 is at 2.6, a slight increase from 2.35 the previous week, indicating overall stability in sentiment with a bullish model perspective [2][9]. - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, suggesting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, reflecting an active market sentiment [13][16]. - The trading volume of the entire A-share market increased by 9.44% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 30,632.46 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market activity [19]. Group 2 - The short-term score rankings show that the oil and petrochemical, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communication sectors are leading, with both oil and petrochemical and construction materials scoring 98.31, the highest among sectors [43][44]. - The industry crowding indicator shows a positive correlation with weekly price changes, with high crowding sectors like oil and petrochemical leading in gains, while low crowding sectors like commercial retail and environmental protection lag behind [46][50]. - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI showing a rapid decline relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting potential weakening of signals in the near term [43][53].

Group 1 - The total margin balance of A-shares reached 27,426.43 billion yuan on January 28, an increase of 192.52 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.63% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin financing on the same day was 2,963.24 billion yuan, which is an increase of 168.28 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.90% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, 27 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading with a net inflow of 5.968 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include telecommunications, computers, construction decoration, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3 - A total of 64 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Zijin Mining leading at 1.471 billion yuan [3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Tianfu Communication, China Ping An, Wangsu Science and Technology, Hengyun Chang, Changjiang Electric Power, Kweichow Moutai, Jiangxi Copper, Cambricon, and Northern Rare Earth [3] Group 4 - The top stocks by net financing inflow on January 28 are as follows: 1. Zijin Mining: 1,470.57 million yuan 2. Tianfu Communication: 825.18 million yuan 3. China Ping An: 792.95 million yuan 4. Wangsu Science and Technology: 747.54 million yuan 5. Hengyun Chang: 656.63 million yuan 6. Changjiang Electric Power: 429.54 million yuan 7. Kweichow Moutai: 397.22 million yuan 8. Jiangxi Copper: 375.39 million yuan 9. Cambricon: 363.92 million yuan 10. Northern Rare Earth: 340.54 million yuan [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined on January 20, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79% to 3277.98 points [2] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 27,775 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 694 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Market Observation - The market opened high but closed low, with core broad-based indices showing more declines than gains. The China Securities Dividend Index and Dividend Index led the gains, while the Growth and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 indices led the declines [3] Index Performance - The A-share market saw varied performance across indices, with the Dividend Low Volatility Index up 1.5% while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite Index remained flat over the day [4] - Over the past five days, the Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.6%, while the ChiNext Index has seen a decline of 1.3% [4] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors saw gains, with oil and petrochemical up 1.7%, construction materials up 1.7%, and real estate up 1.5% [5][6] - Conversely, sectors such as communication, defense, aerospace, and computing experienced declines, with the computing sector down 1.9% [5][6] Hot Industry - Oil and Petrochemical - The oil and petrochemical sector rose by 1.7%, with East China Securities noting that while pressures remain, there is potential for recovery. Key conditions for an upward cycle include rising oil prices, supply-side capacity clearance, and demand-side stimulation through monetary easing [7] - The World Bank forecasts moderate GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, indicating potential for recovery in the sector as capital expenditures decrease and outdated capacities are eliminated [7] Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced that overall fiscal spending in 2026 will continue to increase, with a focus on improving structure and efficiency [8] - The government debt ratio remains low compared to G20 averages, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [8] - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been introduced, with a total quota of 500 billion yuan to support small and medium-sized enterprises [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices closed down today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.01% to 4113.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.97% to 14155.63 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down by 1.58% to 1482.99 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.79% to 3277.98 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 2231 stocks that rose and 3102 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 27,777 billion yuan, an increase of 693 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that performed well included Petroleum & Petrochemicals (up 1.74%), Building Materials (up 1.71%), Real Estate (up 1.55%), Transportation (up 1.25%), Construction Decoration (up 1.24%), and Basic Chemicals (up 1.15%) [1][14] - Conversely, the sectors that saw declines included Communication (down 3.23%), Defense & Military (down 2.87%), and Computer (down 1.94%) [1][14] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors with gains today included Cultivated Diamonds, Cement Manufacturing Selection, Real Estate Selection, Major Infrastructure Central Enterprises, Chemical Raw Materials Selection, Food Processing Selection, Advanced Packaging, Gold and Jewelry, First-Class Real Estate Developers, Aviation Transportation Selection, Banking Selection, Central Enterprises, Old Infrastructure, Western Major Infrastructure, and Superhard Materials [2][11]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:57，今日沪指跌0.15%，A股成交量1319.92亿股，成交金额22891.62 亿元，比上一个交易日增加2.20%。个股方面，2010只个股上涨，其中涨停61只，3315只个股下跌，其 中跌停22只。从申万行业来看，房地产、石油石化、基础化工等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.89%、 1.33%、1.07%；国防军工、通信、计算机等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.42%、2.78%、2.07%。（数据宝） | 综合 | | | | 南京新百 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -2.07 | 1536.79 | -10.09 | 航天宏图 | -12.39 | | 通信 | -2.78 | 1186.52 | 1.08 | 通宇通讯 | -10.01 | | 国防军工 | -3.42 | 1357.00 | 11.48 | 西测测试 | -10.62 | 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:57） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.26% closing at 4101.91 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.18% closing at 14281.08 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.20% to 3361.02 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 1.35% to 1514.07 points [1][10]. - Overall, there were 2370 stocks that rose and 2971 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 30,262 billion yuan, an increase of 1207 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Electronics, Automotive, Machinery Equipment, Power Equipment, and Home Appliances, with increases of 2.64%, 1.69%, 1.23%, 0.76%, and 0.68% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Media, Computer, Oil & Petrochemicals, Social Services, and Agriculture, with decreases of 4.84%, 2.23%, 1.80%, 1.71%, and 1.62% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today were Advanced Packaging, Semiconductor Equipment, HBM, Memory, Semiconductor Selection, Wafer Industry, Semiconductor Silicon Wafer, National Big Fund, Third Generation Semiconductor, Semiconductor Industry, Industrial Gases, and Analog Chips [2].