| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 建筑材料 | 1.78 | 131.38 | 38.11 | 华新水泥 | 10.01 | | 煤炭 | 1.50 | 114.39 | 79.77 | 宝泰隆 | 10.10 | | 纺织服饰 | 1.28 | 104.96 | 27.20 | 金春股份 | 20.00 | | 钢铁 | 0.84 | 119.73 | -12.92 | 广东明珠 | 9.94 | | 非银金融 | 0.82 | 638.28 | 3.65 | 国信证券 | 5.87 | | 轻工制造 | 0.81 | 135.30 | 9.41 | 德尔未来 | 10.08 | | 美容护理 | 0.76 | 34.26 | 22.80 | 水羊股份 | 6.50 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.75 | 305.36 | 1.16 | 冠中生态 | 16.32 | | 交通运输 | 0.72 | 176.31 | 2.66 | 海航科技 | 9.93 | ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 6.43 | 1439.99 | 33.75 | 中洲特材 | 19.99 | | 电子 | 4.07 | 3738.43 | 29.78 | C云汉 | 36.08 | | 电力设备 | 2.69 | 2157.29 | 17.73 | 海科新源 | 20.02 | | 钢铁 | 2.34 | 137.49 | 66.43 | 金岭矿业 | 10.01 | | 计算机 | 2.30 | 1386.65 | 28.64 | ST易联众 | 14.91 | | 建筑装饰 | 1.92 | 301.84 | 60.97 | 冠中生态 | 20.02 | | 公用事业 | 1.76 | 287.59 | 51.21 | 大众公用 | 10.05 | | 通信 | 1.68 | 883.46 | 21.45 | 国盾量子 | 14.14 | | 机械设备 | 1.54 | 1104.36 | 26.92 | 灵鸽科 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 25, 2025, most convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46% month - on - month, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% month - on - month. The market style favored large - cap growth stocks. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall closing price weighted average of convertible bonds was 130.63 yuan, up 0.41% from the previous day. The valuation also increased, with the 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate rising 0.29 pct [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, with 23 industries falling. In the convertible bond market, 21 industries rose [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 479.01, up 0.46% daily, down 0.09% in the past week, down 1.99% in the past month, and up 15.55% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices and major A - share indices also showed different trends in daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes [6]. - In terms of style indices, large - cap growth stocks performed well, rising 1.28% daily, while large - cap value stocks fell 0.57% daily [7]. 3.2 Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 7.7368 billion yuan, a 12.25% month - on - month decrease. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 239.1771 billion yuan, a 1.90% month - on - month increase. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.6 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased 1.82 bp to 1.88% [1]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - After excluding convertible bonds with a closing price > 150 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 50%, the 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate was 28.71%, up 0.29 pct, at the 96.90% quantile since 2019. The overall weighted average parity was 100.56, down 0.14%. The price median was 130.2, down 0.01%, at the 98.10% quantile since 2019 [15][19]. - The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds classified by stock - bond nature all increased, with the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds rising 1.15 pct [27]. 3.4 Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were Textile and Apparel (- 1.45%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (- 1.22%), and Household Appliances (- 1.07%). The top three industries with the largest increases were Media (+ 2.23%), Communication (+ 1.99%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+ 1.87%). - In the convertible bond market, the top three industries with the largest increases were Environmental Protection (+ 2.46%), Non - Ferrous Metals (+ 1.62%), and Automobile (+ 1.22%). The top three industries with the largest declines were Building Decoration (- 0.49%), Basic Chemicals (- 0.21%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 0.19%) [3][55].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.30% closing at 3820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.04% at 13070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.16% at 3091.00 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 1909 stocks that rose and 3403 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 23238 billion yuan, a decrease of 8113 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, coal, non-ferrous metals, building materials, social services, and national defense industries led the gains with increases of 1.97%, 1.19%, 1.05%, 1.01%, and 0.85% respectively [1][14] - Conversely, the automotive, pharmaceutical, computer, non-bank financial, and machinery equipment sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 1.94%, 1.41%, 1.26%, 0.88%, and 0.60% respectively [1][14] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included excavators, coal mining, photoresists, western infrastructure, cameras, Xinjiang revitalization, lithium mines, storage devices, titanium dioxide, large aircraft, rare metals, aircraft carriers, household light industry, the Belt and Road Initiative, and gold jewelry [2][11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model [5][27] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industry performance. It selects industries with strong upward momentum for allocation [26][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the diffusion index for each industry, which reflects the proportion of stocks in the industry with positive momentum. - Industries are ranked based on their diffusion index values, and the top-performing industries are selected for portfolio allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (0.99), Banking (0.969), Communication (0.951), Steel (0.95), Non-ferrous Metals (0.947), Retail (0.934) [27][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance over the years. While it captured trends effectively in 2021, it struggled during market reversals in 2024. It has been tracking performance for four years [26][27]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: 4.53% [25][30] - September 2025 average weekly return: 2.79%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **Model Name**: GRU Factor Model [6][33] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities [38]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU network is trained on historical minute-level volume and price data to generate industry factors. - Industries are ranked based on their GRU factor scores, and the top-ranked industries are selected for allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (4.56), Construction (3.8), Real Estate (3.6), Textile & Apparel (0.08), Comprehensive Finance (-0.07), Home Appliances (-0.16) [6][34]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short-term scenarios but struggles in long-term or extreme market conditions. It has faced challenges in capturing excess returns in 2025 due to concentrated market themes [33][38]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -7.37% [33][36] - September 2025 average weekly return: 1.70%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: -0.23% [36] Backtesting Results of Models Diffusion Index Model - **YTD Excess Return**: 4.53% [25][30] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 2.79% [30] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **YTD Excess Return**: -7.37% [33][36] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 1.70% [36] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: -0.23% [36]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant positions in non-ferrous metals (15.3%), non-bank financials (12.9%), and comprehensive sectors (7.3%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -3.0%, while the average return over the past month was 3.1% [3][10] - The report identifies the top-performing industries for the week as electric equipment and new energy (2.4%), food and beverage (0.8%), and pharmaceuticals (0.5%), while the worst performers were defense and military (-11.9%), computers (-9.8%), and electronics (-9.7%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The report provides a detailed performance review of CITIC primary industries, indicating that the average weekly return was -3.0% and the average monthly return was 3.1% [10] - The top three industries by weekly performance were electric equipment and new energy (2.4%), food and beverage (0.8%), and pharmaceuticals (0.5%) [11] - The bottom three industries were defense and military (-11.9%), computers (-9.8%), and electronics (-9.7%) [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [14][15] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, media, computers, and defense and military, all exceeding the 95th percentile in PB valuation [15][16] Strategy Performance - The report outlines the performance of various strategies, with the composite strategy yielding a cumulative return of 20.2% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry benchmark by 2.3% [3] - The highest excess return strategy was the industry profitability tracking strategy (S1), with an excess return of 5.1% compared to the benchmark [3] - The report indicates a shift in strategy allocations, increasing positions in upstream cyclical and pharmaceutical sectors while reducing exposure to TMT, consumer, and midstream cyclical sectors [3] Current Industry Rankings - The report ranks industries based on profitability expectations, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and agriculture being the top three [18] - The implied sentiment momentum strategy ranks communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics as the top three industries based on market sentiment indicators [22] - The macroeconomic style rotation strategy identifies comprehensive finance, computers, communication, defense and military, electronics, and media as the top six industries based on macroeconomic indicators [25]

Core Insights - Suzhou has released the "2025 Key Industry Talent Demand Directory," highlighting a strong demand for professionals in electronic information, machinery, and computer fields, particularly in new generation information technology, high-end equipment, and new materials [1][2] Group 1: Talent Demand and Salary Insights - The directory identifies 868 critical professional categories and 3,373 job postings, expanding coverage to include quantum computing and smart agriculture in advanced manufacturing, and data services and wellness services in the service industry [1] - High-paying positions in advanced manufacturing include roles such as intelligent research experts and AI algorithm engineers, with annual salaries exceeding 1 million yuan, while service industry roles like big data algorithm experts earn over 600,000 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Recruitment Trends - A survey indicates that 82% of companies prefer hiring candidates with over two years of work experience, with the highest demand in the new energy vehicle and information technology sectors [2] - 77.25% of companies plan to recruit R&D technical talent in the next year, while 21.57% aim to hire sales and customer service roles [2] Group 3: Impact on Companies - The directory serves as a precise recruitment guide, helping companies like ASUS Technology (Suzhou) to clarify their hiring strategies, with previous years seeing 17 recognized talents in critical fields [3] - The Suzhou Human Resources Department has launched a talent demand directory information-sharing feature, aiding job seekers and companies in talent acquisition and development [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.45% to close at 3858.13 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 2.14% to 12553.84 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,750 billion yuan, an increase of 1,250.31 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, banking, public utilities, home appliances, automotive, oil and petrochemicals, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, while telecommunications, computers, electronics, national defense and military industry, construction materials, and basic chemicals experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included central enterprise banks, reducers, gold and jewelry, selected banks, industrial mother machines, new industrialization, PEEK materials, selected electric power stocks, power batteries, Yushu robots, integrated die-casting, thermal power, cultivated diamonds, central enterprises, and selected automotive parts [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of August 26, the total market financing balance reached 2,192.16 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 19.19 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with 26 out of 31 primary industries showing an increase in financing balance [1][2]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The electronics industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 6.455 billion yuan to a total of 288.65 billion yuan [1]. - Other notable increases were observed in the power equipment (1.56978 trillion yuan, +1.54 billion yuan), banking (699.09 billion yuan, +1.528 billion yuan), and computer sectors (1.75471 trillion yuan, +1.474 billion yuan) [1]. - Conversely, five industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining the most by 750 million yuan, bringing its total to 961.90 billion yuan [1][2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The beauty and personal care industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 3.97%, totaling 66.55 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with significant percentage increases included comprehensive (2.37%), electronics (2.29%), and banking (2.23%) [1]. - The non-ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals industries had the largest percentage declines, with decreases of 0.77%, 0.31%, and 0.14%, respectively [1][2].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but closed higher, with a total trading volume of HKD 285.29 billion and a net outflow of southbound funds amounting to HKD 14.682 billion [2][9] - Major new consumer stocks reported strong interim results, and positive guidance from company leaders boosted the new consumption sector [2][9] - The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, benefiting from positive earnings announcements from leading companies [2][9] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17% to 25,165.94, while the Hang Seng Technology Index slightly declined by 0.01% to 5,541.27 [6] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.08% to 9,013.27, and the Hang Seng High Dividend Index fell by 0.06% [6] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.14% [6] Sector Analysis - Among the primary sectors in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, light industry manufacturing (+5.82%), electronics (+1.09%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.95%) led the gains [6][9] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector (-2.88%), comprehensive sector (-2.53%), and computer sector (-2.34%) experienced declines [6][9] - Concept indices such as the paper industry (+9.17%), baby and child products (+8.63%), and electronic cigarettes (+6.37%) saw significant increases, while the Foxconn index (-6.93%) and unprofitable biotech index (-5.02%) faced declines [6][9] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong market could reach new highs driven by three core directions: AI technology and new consumption sectors, continued inflow of southbound funds, and improved global liquidity conditions due to potential U.S. interest rate cuts [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and its implications for future monetary policy [9]