点击注册小程序 本周上证综指下跌0.18%，上证50持平，沪深300下跌1.08%，中证500下跌1.26%，中证1000下跌0.52%， 创业板指下跌3.01%，北证50指数下跌0.56%。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周市场核心观点与市场复盘： 本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14，下同）A股延续宽幅震荡表现，主要宽基指数周度收跌，市场量能再度收 缩。资金面方面，融资增加额环比上周小幅提升；股票型ETF实现净流入，TMT主题ETF为净流入主力。 近期市场交易情绪稳中有降，热点主题有所切换，TMT主题呈现回调。短线市场或延续宽幅震荡格局，后 市看好"红利+科技"主线，红利或在波动方面占优。 截至2025年11月14日，宽基指数来看，上证指数、上证50和沪 ...

- The diffusion index model tracks industry rotation based on momentum principles, focusing on upward trends in industry performance. It has been monitored for four years, with notable performance in 2021 achieving excess returns of over 25% before a significant drawdown in September due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2025, the model suggests allocating to industries such as non-ferrous metals, banking, communication, steel, electronics, and power equipment & new energy[22][23][26] - The GRU factor model utilizes minute-level volume and price data processed through GRU deep learning networks. It has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but performs less effectively in long cycles. In 2025, the model's industry rotation includes sectors like agriculture, power & utilities, basic chemicals, transportation, steel, and petrochemicals. Weekly average returns were 2.56%, with excess returns of 1.65% against equal-weighted industry benchmarks. Year-to-date excess returns stand at -4.49%[29][30][32] - Diffusion index weekly tracking shows top-ranked industries as non-ferrous metals (0.991), banking (0.931), power equipment & new energy (0.925), communication (0.92), steel (0.871), and electronics (0.864). Industries with the most significant weekly changes include power equipment & new energy (+0.083), petrochemicals (+0.082), and light manufacturing (+0.078)[23][24][25] - GRU factor weekly tracking ranks industries such as comprehensive (7.22), basic chemicals (3.37), building materials (2.7), transportation (2.36), power & utilities (1.96), and food & beverages (1.94) as top performers. Industries with notable weekly increases include power & utilities, non-bank finance, and basic chemicals[30][33][37]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with significant gains in sectors such as storage chips, CPO, gold, and electricity, indicating positive market sentiment and sector performance [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13% and the ChiNext Index up by 0.58%, reflecting a bullish market trend [1] - Institutional investors suggest increasing positions in chemical, non-ferrous, and new energy sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI narrative and improving return on equity (ROE) trends [2] - The current market volatility is attributed to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with a shift towards stable absolute return funds reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [2] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - According to research, cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are recommended for investment, driven by expectations of a strong cyclical year ahead [3] - The analysis indicates that the price increase in commodities is linked to historical patterns of PPI rises during significant political events in China and the U.S., suggesting a favorable environment for these sectors [3] - Emphasis is placed on the recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors like steel, chemicals, and building materials, alongside a focus on low-position technology growth areas such as AI software applications and military technology [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The resource sector is anticipated to emerge as a new main investment direction following the technology sector, with a focus on key resources and military applications [5] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a bullish trend into 2026, although with a potential slowdown in growth rates, prompting investors to prioritize fundamental improvements and sector performance [5]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.4923% to 1.4677%, a reduction of 2.46 basis points; DR007 fell from 1.4551% to 1.4130%, down 4.21 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.75 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 7.831 billion, a decrease of 24.527 billion from the previous week. Fund supply was 16.023 billion, while fund demand was 8.192 billion. Specifically, fund supply decreased by 65.002 billion, with net financing purchases down by 21.016 billion and stock dividends down by 12.308 billion [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose this week, with the electric equipment and new energy sector leading with a weekly increase of 5.11%. Other sectors like steel and oil & petrochemicals also saw slight increases. Conversely, the pharmaceutical and computer sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.36% and 2.08% respectively [18][21] - The electric equipment and new energy sector received the most net leveraged capital inflow, totaling 2.196 billion, while the electronic sector experienced a net outflow of 2.501 billion [21][24] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices rose this week, with both cyclical and stable styles leading with an increase of 1.85%. The consumer style was the only one to decline, down 0.70%. The growth style was the most active, accounting for 56.88% of the average daily trading volume [32][36] - The main funds in the style sectors were predominantly reduced, with the largest reduction in the growth style amounting to 10.957 billion, followed by the cyclical style with a reduction of 5.597 billion [33][36]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its bull market into 2026, with a forecast of a fluctuating upward trend but slower growth, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and economic verification [1] Industry Insights - The technology sector may face structural and phase-based pullback risks, while resource products are likely to emerge as a new main direction for A-shares following the technology theme [1] - The ongoing comprehensive competition between China and the U.S. could significantly impact A-share investments, suggesting a focus on future industries and key resources, particularly in military industry sectors [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include: - New energy - Non-ferrous metals - Basic chemicals - Oil and petrochemicals - Non-bank financials - Military industry - Machinery and equipment - Computers [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic areas of interest include: - New materials - Solid-state batteries - Commercial aerospace - Nuclear power - Cross-strait integration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is expected to continue into 2026, with the index likely to experience a volatile upward trend but with slower growth, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and economic verification [1] Industry Insights - There is a caution regarding structural and phase-based pullback risks in the technology sector, while resource products may emerge as a new main direction for A-shares following the technology theme [1] - The ongoing comprehensive competition between China and the U.S. could significantly impact A-share investments, suggesting a strategic focus on future industries and key resources, particularly in military and defense sectors [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include: - New energy - Non-ferrous metals - Basic chemicals - Oil and petrochemicals - Non-bank financials - Military industry - Machinery and equipment - Computers [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic areas of interest include: - New materials - Solid-state batteries - Commercial aerospace - Nuclear power - Cross-strait integration [1]

>>>>> BIF早知道 >>>>>> ETF导知道 ETFEFRI bi i # <<<<< >>>>> 合肥品 2025 Oct ETF星知道 13 息技术ETF ETF문玩道 认购代码 159131 令日 「芯」 动发行 cess 市场温度计 >>>>> ETFEER 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 7596 759 = 25% 25% 25% ETFIFERS cea 0.71% 3.57% 2.02% ← T t 上证指数 创业板指 漆证成指 注：温度计水银条由对应指数的近十年市盈丰分位费表示，总值为100%。数据来源：iFind，截至 2025,10.24，上证指数、深证成指、创业板拒的近十年市盈率分位数分胆为99,42％、80.49％、 46,13% ETER @ e @ III DIRETTY B ETFEFR通 ceae 短期轮动走向 · 观九宫热力值 +4.73% +2.34% +4.72% 通信 电子 国防军工 品 机械 +2.20% -1.02% +1.55% 房地产 计算机 电力设备 -1.18% -1.29% -1.36% ETFEER® 煤炭 食品饮料 石油石化 (4){ 数据来源: ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The current industry allocation by the Bank of China multi-strategy system includes Non-Bank Financials (11.7%), Basic Chemicals (10.2%), and Comprehensive (9.3%) as the top three sectors [1] - The average weekly return for the 30 CITIC primary industries is -1.1%, with the best-performing sectors being Coal (6.6%), Banking (5.8%), and Food & Beverage (2.6%) [3][10] - The composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 27.2% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark return of 22.7% by 4.5% [3] Group 2: Industry Performance Review - The worst-performing sectors this week include Electronics (-7.7%), Computers (-6.3%), and Media (-6.2%) [10] - The current top three industries based on profitability expectations are Non-Bank Financials, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, and Communications [15] - The sectors with the highest implied sentiment indicators are Basic Chemicals, Comprehensive, and Electric Equipment & New Energy [19] Group 3: Valuation Risk Alerts - The industries currently flagged for high valuation risk include Retail, Media, Computers, Non-Ferrous Metals, Electronics, and National Defense [12][13] - The valuation warning system uses a 6-year rolling PB (Price-to-Book) ratio to assess industry valuations, with a PB above the 95th percentile indicating overvaluation [12] Group 4: Strategy Performance - The highest performing strategy this year is the Traditional Multi-Factor Scoring Strategy, with an excess return of 18.4% compared to the benchmark [3] - The current allocation of the composite strategy has slightly increased positions in financials and midstream non-cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to upstream cyclical sectors [3] - The macroeconomic indicators favoring the top six industries include Banking, Oil & Petrochemicals, Transportation, Electric Utilities, Construction, and Home Appliances [22]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.92% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 762.56 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,225.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.30% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Defense and Military Industry: increased by 0.23% with a transaction value of 37.55 billion yuan, up by 20.18% from the previous day, led by Beifang Changlong, which rose by 15.59% [1] - Computer: increased by 0.13% with a transaction value of 104.33 billion yuan, up by 7.78%, led by Yingjianke, which rose by 20.01% [1] - Steel: increased by 0.11% with a transaction value of 13.36 billion yuan, up by 43.02%, led by Guangdong Mingzhu, which rose by 10.06% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Automotive: decreased by 2.70% with a transaction value of 63.20 billion yuan, down by 5.67%, led by Riying Electronics, which fell by 9.66% [2] - Household Appliances: decreased by 2.20% with a transaction value of 17.35 billion yuan, down by 2.63%, led by Biyi Co., which fell by 6.05% [2] - Machinery Equipment: decreased by 1.85% with a transaction value of 86.77 billion yuan, down by 7.88%, led by Lvdiafeng, which fell by 9.07% [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51% today, with a trading volume of 988.89 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,656.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.08% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Building Materials: Increased by 1.78% with a transaction value of 131.38 billion yuan, led by Huaxin Cement which rose by 10.01% [1] - Coal: Increased by 1.50% with a transaction value of 114.39 billion yuan, led by Baotailong which rose by 10.10% [1] - Textile and Apparel: Increased by 1.28% with a transaction value of 104.96 billion yuan, led by Jinchun Co. which rose by 20.00% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Electronics: Decreased by 3.47% with a transaction value of 3,310.84 billion yuan, led by Dongxin Co. which fell by 13.06% [2] - Electric Equipment: Decreased by 3.40% with a transaction value of 2,166.29 billion yuan, led by Airo Energy which fell by 13.69% [2] - Computer: Decreased by 2.83% with a transaction value of 1,239.65 billion yuan, led by Danghong Technology which fell by 11.56% [2] Summary of Key Stocks - Leading stocks in the rising sectors included: - Huaxin Cement in Building Materials [1] - Baotailong in Coal [1] - Jinchun Co. in Textile and Apparel [1] - Leading stocks in the declining sectors included: - Dongxin Co. in Electronics [2] - Airo Energy in Electric Equipment [2] - Danghong Technology in Computer [2]