Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][9] Core Insights - January saw a strong start for duty-free shopping, with Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping amounting to 4.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.8% [6] - The implementation of the "zero tariff" policy for residents in Hainan is expected to further stimulate consumption [6] - The demand for high-priced premium and packaged goods has surged, reflecting a robust consumer sentiment during the Spring Festival [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In January, the total duty-free shopping amount reached 4.53 billion yuan, with 560,000 shoppers and 3.367 million items purchased, showing increases of 21.0% and 14.0% year-on-year respectively [6] - The average spending per person was approximately 8,089 yuan, up 19.7%, while the average price per item rose by 27.0% to 1,345 yuan [6] Policy Developments - The "zero tariff" policy allows Hainan residents to purchase specified imported goods up to a value of 10,000 yuan per person per year without paying import duties, VAT, or consumption tax [6] - The first batch of goods includes 202 frequently consumed items, aimed at enhancing the benefits of the free trade port and meeting local consumer needs [6] Supply Side Developments - China Duty Free Group has secured the right to operate duty-free retail in the Haikou West Coast area and is actively engaging in promotional activities [6] - Zhuhai Duty Free Group has transitioned to a major consumer platform focused on duty-free sales, with its first store in Sanya officially opening on February 11 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Hainan Airport, as the policy changes and sales data indicate a recovery in the industry [6]

针对开业后部分热销商品临时缺货、岛内居民购买意愿集中等情况，海口海关加强与企业沟通，提前掌 握企业备货计划，实时监控门店销售动态，通过预约通关、前置监管、随到随检等服务措施，保障热销 货品第一时间补充上架销售，实现爆款商品通关"畅流转"。 接下来，海口海关将持续提高监管效能，优化服务水平，推动海南自由贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商 品"零关税"政策红利持续释放，让岛内居民充分享受海南自贸港政策红利。 "岛内居民终于有了自己的'生活免税店'，买进口的商品变得更方便了，价格也实惠。"海南本地居民杨 先生表示。"零关税"进境商品免税商店主要集中在市区内热门商圈，能更好地辐射到周围居民区，便利 岛内居民购买。 在儋州夏日日用消费品免税店，刚完成结算的市民王先生向记者展示购物小票，"跟离岛免税不同，这 不需要离岛记录就能享受，岛内居民在家门口就能购买免税商品，真是把实惠送到了心坎上。" □记者 畅凯 通讯员 黄功 王丹 本报讯 2月11日，全岛首批5家"零关税"进境商品免税商店（即日用消费品免税店）顺利开业，标志着 海南自由贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商品"零关税"政策正式落地实施。据海口海关统计，开店首日全岛 总购物金额48 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi has led to a decline of 1.61% in the benefiting sectors on the previous trading day, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4134.02, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14283.0, up 0.86% [1]. - The Renminbi appreciation benefiting sector saw a net outflow of 916 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 713 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 6.00, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 1.51 million shares and a transaction value of 9.19 million yuan [2]. - Other notable declines include China Duty Free Group (601888) down 2.92% and China Southern Airlines (600029) down 2.27% [2]. - In contrast, Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) saw a slight increase of 0.56%, closing at 7.22 with a transaction value of 3.617 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds showed a net inflow of 86.56 million yuan for Tongling Nonferrous Metals, while retail investors had a net outflow of 33.51 million yuan [3]. - For Sun Paper (002078), main funds had a net inflow of 22.31 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 5.22 million yuan [3]. - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among institutional and retail investors within the Renminbi appreciation benefiting sector [2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in Chinese tourists traveling to Japan following travel advisories issued by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the consulate in Japan, with a notable drop in December [1] - Hainan has emerged as a new popular destination for Chinese tourists, with platforms like Qunar and Ctrip reporting over a 45% year-on-year increase in daily flight orders to Hainan during the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Major source cities for Hainan tourism include Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with approximately 40% of tourists from Shanghai and surrounding areas and about 25% from Beijing [1] Group 2 - Domestic duty-free consumption continues to grow, with expectations for strong performance during the Spring Festival peak season [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for China Duty Free Group has been adjusted to 1.77, 2.79, and 3.34 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, based on various factors including the return of consumption in Japan and the popularity of Hainan tourism [1] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted EPS forecasts are projected to be 52.16, 33.15, and 27.69 times, referencing the closing price of 97.00 yuan on February 11, 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the first five duty-free shops for daily consumer goods in Hainan marks a significant step in promoting the "zero tariff" policy for residents, enhancing their shopping experience and access to various products [1] Group 1: Duty-Free Shops Opening - Five duty-free shops for daily consumer goods opened in Hainan, including locations in Haikou, Sanya, and Danzhou [1] - The shops offer a wide range of products, including food, daily chemical products, and household goods, catering to the needs of local residents [1] - The opening attracted significant consumer interest, with long queues forming before the shops officially opened [1] Group 2: Zero Tariff Policy - The "zero tariff" policy allows Hainan residents to purchase imported goods without paying import duties, VAT, or consumption tax within specified limits [1] - Eligible residents include Chinese citizens with Hainan ID cards, residence permits, or social security cards, as well as foreign individuals living and working in Hainan [1] - The annual duty-free purchase limit is set at 10,000 RMB per person, with no restrictions on the number of purchases [1]

Group 1 - The main stocks with significant capital outflows include Xinyi Technology (-8.52 billion), Zhongji Xuchuang (-7.46 billion), and Shenghong Technology (-7.05 billion) [1] - Other notable stocks with capital outflows are Light Media (-6.74 billion), China Duty Free Group (-5.71 billion), and Zhongwen Online (-5.64 billion) [1] - Guizhou Moutai experienced a capital outflow of -5.61 billion, while Aerospace Electronics saw -5.46 billion [1] Group 2 - The stock performance shows that Xinyi Technology had a decline of -0.31%, and Zhongji Xuchuang decreased by -0.17% [2] - Light Media faced a significant drop of -10.8%, while Zhongwen Online fell by -6.91% [2] - Guizhou Moutai's stock decreased by -1.42%, and Aerospace Electronics dropped by -2.33% [2] Group 3 - Other companies with notable capital outflows include Agricultural Bank (-4.80 billion) and China Satellite (-4.79 billion) [3] - Industrial Fulian had a slight decline of -0.24%, while Xian Dao Intelligent saw a minimal change of -0.05% [3] - The overall trend indicates a significant capital outflow from various sectors, including telecommunications, media, and banking [1][2][3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of "high prosperity spillover" in the AI sector, suggesting that while the fundamental elasticity may not match the high prosperity itself, there is still potential for elasticity in spillover markets [2][11] - It emphasizes the importance of basic bottom-line requirements for spillover markets, indicating that the prosperity cycle needs to confirm a clear bottom [11] - The report suggests that the valuation structure of high prosperity can break through historical averages, but the spillover structure may face challenges [11] Industry Summaries AI Sector - The report identifies specific industries benefiting from AI price spillover, recommending attention to fiberglass and optical fiber due to their favorable valuations and visible price increases [2][11] - Fiberglass is noted for its strong bargaining power in the global supply chain, with a valuation slightly above historical averages, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile [11] - The optical fiber sector is experiencing a recovery in traditional segments alongside expectations for AI business advancements, presenting a high short-term success rate [11] Real Estate - The report indicates that the most challenging period for the real estate sector may be over, with signs of marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics [11] - Data shows a narrowing decline in key indicators, with a significant reduction in the year-on-year decline of second-hand housing transactions [11] - Policy measures are being implemented to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on risk management and ensuring the protection of livelihoods [11] Consumer Electronics - The report discusses the impact of the "old-for-new" policy on the home appliance market, noting significant sales volumes and revenue generated from this initiative [15][18] - It highlights the performance of various appliance categories, with a focus on the kitchen appliance sector, which is experiencing varied performance amid high base pressures [18] - The report anticipates that the 2026 "old-for-new" policy will continue to benefit leading brands with superior product efficiency and performance [18] Tourism and Hospitality - The report outlines the expected surge in domestic tourism during the extended Spring Festival holiday, predicting a significant increase in passenger transport volumes [21] - It notes a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality accommodations and diverse travel experiences, driven by family and senior travelers [21] - The report suggests that the tourism market is experiencing a multi-faceted explosion, with emerging destinations gaining popularity [21]

Group 1: AI High Prosperity Spillover - The report reviews the storage and lithium battery market since September 2025, summarizing the basic rules of the "high prosperity spillover" trend, indicating that while the fundamental elasticity may not be as strong as the high prosperity itself, spillover trends can still exhibit elasticity [2][11] - It highlights that the spillover trend has basic bottom-line requirements, necessitating a clear confirmation of the prosperity cycle's bottom, including manageable demand risks and sufficient supply clearance [11] - The report suggests focusing on industries experiencing AI price spillover, recommending fiberglass due to its reasonable valuation and visible price increases, and optical fiber due to traditional recovery and short-term AI business progress [2][11] Group 2: January Policy Tracking - The report notes that the longest Spring Festival holiday in 2026 is expected to boost consumer spending, which is crucial for driving domestic demand in the first quarter and solidifying the foundation for economic recovery throughout the year [2][10] - It emphasizes the collaborative efforts of multiple ministries to accelerate support for the economy, particularly in consumption, equipment investment, and the private sector, with significant increases in government bond financing [10][13] - Local governments are proactively deploying economic work, moving away from a wait-and-see attitude, with many regions advancing their annual work deployment to early January [10][13] Group 3: January Inflation Analysis - The report discusses the January inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating a CPI increase of 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% previously, and a PPI decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][12] - It identifies the divergence in inflation as being influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, external factors, and weak demand, with a notable narrowing of the PPI decline primarily driven by rising copper prices [12][16] - The report also highlights that the CPI remains weak overall, with significant declines in food prices and core commodity CPI, reflecting ongoing challenges in the economy [12][16] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry Insights - The report indicates that the home appliance sector has seen significant sales through the "old-for-new" policy, with over 6.81 million units sold in January, generating substantial revenue [15][18] - It notes that the home appliance market is facing high base pressure in 2025, with a focus on core categories for subsidies, which are expected to benefit leading brands [18] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the home appliance market, with leading brands gaining market share, particularly in the offline market, while online competition is intensifying [18][19] Group 5: Tourism and Service Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a projected 95 million passengers expected to travel by air, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [21] - It emphasizes the diverse recovery in the domestic tourism market, with family and senior travelers driving demand for high-quality accommodations and unique travel experiences [21][20] - The report suggests that the tourism sector is poised for a strong recovery, with a focus on cross-border travel and differentiated experiences becoming key growth drivers [21][20] Group 6: Banking Sector Analysis - The report discusses the recent approval for a major shareholder of Nanjing Bank to increase their stake above 15%, which is expected to unlock significant incremental capital for the bank [22][23] - It highlights the bank's strong performance, with a projected revenue growth of 10.5% and a net profit growth of approximately 8.1% for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [22][23] - The report recommends Nanjing Bank as a buy due to its solid performance, high dividend yield, and the potential for valuation recovery driven by major shareholder support [22][23]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.792 billion, 0.571 billion, and 0.412 billion respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow of southbound funds were Yingfu Fund (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Kuaishou-W (01024), with net outflows of -4.553 billion, -1.380 billion, and -0.576 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088), Southern East Selection (03441), and Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) led the market with ratios of 90.53%, 74.02%, and 68.27% respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow ratio were Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432), Fuyao Glass (06865), and Baize Medical (02609) with ratios of -100.00%, -59.27%, and -53.09% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.792 billion, representing a 12.21% increase, closing at 560.000 (+2.28%) [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) saw a net inflow of 0.571 billion, with a 6.77% increase, closing at 5.300 (+1.34%) [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 0.412 billion, with a 9.45% increase, closing at 35.200 (+0.06%) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the highest net outflow of -4.553 billion, with a -22.13% decrease, closing at 27.220 (+1.72%) [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of -1.380 billion, representing an -11.37% decrease, closing at 93.940 (+1.56%) [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) faced a net outflow of -0.576 billion, with a -10.25% decrease, closing at 69.300 (-2.74%) [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088) led with a net inflow ratio of 90.53%, with a net inflow of 47.6883 million, closing at 6.875 (+1.33%) [3] - Southern East Selection (03441) followed with a net inflow ratio of 74.02%, with a net inflow of 18.0421 million, closing at 11.600 (+1.13%) [3] - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) had a net inflow ratio of 68.27%, with a net inflow of 5.6553 million, closing at 13.340 (-0.07%) [3]

Financial Performance - LVMH reported a revenue decline for 2025 but achieved an 8% increase in operating free cash flow, exceeding €11 billion [2] - Kering is set to release its Q4 and full-year results on February 10, 2026, amid an 8.1% decline in the luxury sector index for 2025 due to weak demand in China and trade tensions [2] - Hermès is scheduled to announce its financial results on February 12, 2026, with improved sales in Greater China during Q3 2025 attributed to increased foot traffic [2] Business Developments - LVMH is expanding in the fragrance sector by acquiring a minority stake in the high-end perfume brand EX NIHILO, with the transaction expected to complete in Q1 2026 [3] - LVMH's DFS sold its travel retail business in Greater China to China Duty Free Group for up to $395 million to adapt to the trend of consumption returning to domestic markets [3] - The group is also pursuing a strategy of premiumization and diversification, such as increasing its stake in Loro Piana [3] Industry Policy and Environment - Bain & Company reported that the Chinese personal luxury goods market is expected to contract by 3%-5% in 2025, but moderate growth is anticipated in 2026, with domestic consumption accounting for 65% [4] - The beauty and fragrance categories are performing steadily, while categories like watches are under pressure [4] - Geopolitical factors include adjustments in tariff policies by the Trump administration in January 2026, which alleviated concerns about North American sales, although new trade tensions may still cause volatility [4] Brand Market Activities - Luxury brands are focusing on emotional value, with price increases of up to 10% on some products by the end of 2025 and limited edition items to maintain scarcity, with Gen Z consumers contributing 63% of incremental growth [5] - Sustainability has become a key consideration for purchases [5] - The adoption of technology such as blockchain certification and AR fitting is increasing, with LVMH's NFT leather goods series generating sales of ¥1.9 billion in Q4 2024, highlighting digitalization as a focus for efficiency in the industry [5]