Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for investment in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a significant increase in both volume and price in Q4 2025, with production levels rising across various components, including a 15% increase in ternary cathodes and a 24% increase in lithium batteries [1]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a reduction in losses, but Q4 is anticipated to be under pressure due to rising costs in silver paste and silicon materials, leading to expected losses for major companies [1]. - The wind power sector is witnessing a substantial recovery in profits driven by demand, with a 50.4% year-on-year increase in installed capacity in 2025, although Q4 performance may fall short of expectations due to reduced shipment volumes [1]. - The energy storage market is projected to maintain high growth rates, with independent storage becoming a key growth driver, supported by increasing demand in emerging markets and improved profitability models [1]. Summary by Sections Lithium Batteries - Q4 2025 is expected to see a significant increase in production across various lithium battery components, with production figures reaching 250,000 tons for ternary cathodes and 600 GWh for lithium batteries, reflecting a robust demand [1]. - Price increases in key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are anticipated, contributing to stable profitability in the battery segment [1]. Photovoltaics - The industry faced substantial losses in the first three quarters of 2025, but there is a marginal improvement. Q4 is expected to be challenging due to rising costs and asset impairment [1]. - The cash flow in the silicon material segment is showing signs of recovery, with financing inflows increasing, although the overall industry remains under pressure [1]. Wind Power - The installed capacity for wind power in China reached 119.33 GW in 2025, marking a 50.4% increase year-on-year, leading to a significant recovery in profits for the sector [1]. - Despite a strong demand outlook, Q4 performance may be impacted by reduced shipment volumes and impairment factors [1]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is expected to continue its rapid growth, with independent storage becoming a core growth driver through capacity leasing and market transactions [1]. - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with anticipated demand growth in overseas markets and improved utilization rates in domestic large-scale storage [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1. Cyclical growth companies such as CATL and EVE Energy 2. Technological innovation firms like Rongbai Technology and Dingsheng Technology 3. Supply-side optimization companies including Tongwei and LONGi Green Energy 4. Companies expanding into AIDC as a secondary business [1].

联络人 作者 企业评级部 汤梦琳 010-66428877 mltang@ccxi.com.cn 李洁鹭 010-66428877 jlli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 核心观点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 12 | | 结论 | 19 | | 附表 | 20 | 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国光伏制造行业 中国光伏制造行业展望，2026 年 2 月 展望 2026 年，国内光伏装机需求将出现小幅回落，海外出口增速也将 趋于下行，预计下游需求增速整体放缓；供给端，在法律政策与自律 协会的推动下，企业将继续减产控价，产业链价格或将出现不同程度 的回升，随着落后产能淘汰，行业集中度将进一步提升。不过短期内 行业供需失衡的格局仍难以得到根本性扭转，产业链价格仍将处于低 位。长期来看产业发展环境有望得到优化，但盈利修复仍需依赖减产 联盟共识、供给侧政策持续发力与需求端的带动，而持续亏损导致 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the new energy sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a significant increase in both volume and price in Q4 2025, with production across various segments showing substantial year-on-year growth [2]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a reduction in losses, but Q4 is anticipated to face renewed pressure due to rising costs in silver paste and silicon materials [2]. - The wind power sector is projected to recover significantly, driven by a 50.4% year-on-year increase in installed capacity, with expectations of improved profitability in 2025 [2]. - The energy storage market is expected to maintain high growth rates, with independent storage becoming a key growth driver [2]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: cyclical growth, technological innovation, supply-side optimization, and expanding into AIDC as a secondary business [2]. Summary by Sections Lithium Battery - Q4 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in production across various lithium battery components, with production volumes for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, anodes, separators, electrolytes, and batteries showing increases of 15% to 26% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Prices for key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are expected to rise, contributing to stable profitability in the battery segment [2]. Photovoltaic - The PV industry reported significant losses in the first three quarters of 2025, but with marginal improvements. Q4 is expected to be challenging due to cost increases and asset impairment provisions [2]. - The cash flow in the silicon material segment is beginning to recover, and financing inflows are increasing, indicating structural improvements [2]. Wind Power - The installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 119.33 GW in 2025, marking a 50.4% increase year-on-year, leading to a substantial recovery in net profits for the sector [2]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of wind turbine manufacturing will improve significantly, especially with the clearing of low-price orders from 2025 [2]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is expected to continue its rapid growth, with independent storage becoming a core growth driver through capacity leasing and electricity market transactions [2]. - The report forecasts a strong demand for large-scale and commercial energy storage in 2026, driven by emerging markets and improved utilization rates in China [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of "space photovoltaics" in China, highlighting its potential to reshape the value proposition of Chinese photovoltaic companies as they become integral to Elon Musk's space energy vision [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a surge in interest in space photovoltaics, with companies like Zairun New Energy and Tuorui New Energy hitting their upper trading limits [3][4]. - The immediate catalyst for this market excitement was Elon Musk's announcement at the Davos Forum about SpaceX and Tesla's plan to establish a photovoltaic production base in the U.S. with an annual capacity of 200 GW, which is projected to meet nearly a quarter of the U.S. electricity demand [4][5]. - The excitement in the market is driven by the perception that space photovoltaics can overcome the limitations faced by ground-based solar energy, such as dependence on weather and daylight [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Positioning - Chinese companies hold a dominant position in the global photovoltaic manufacturing sector, accounting for over 70% of the global supply chain, which positions them favorably for the space photovoltaics market [9]. - The article emphasizes that the space photovoltaics sector is expected to be a significant growth opportunity for Chinese photovoltaic companies, as it offers higher added value compared to traditional ground-based solar energy [6][9]. - The potential market for space photovoltaics is projected to reach between $500 billion and $1 trillion by 2030, indicating a substantial long-term opportunity [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The article outlines a three-phase evolution of space photovoltaic technology, starting with gallium arsenide cells for high-value aerospace applications, transitioning to HJT technology for low Earth orbit satellites, and ultimately utilizing perovskite tandem cells for large-scale deployments [13]. - Companies are exploring various technological pathways, including lightweight and efficient solar cells, to meet the unique demands of space applications [13][15]. - The competitive landscape will be shaped by advancements in materials engineering, space certification, and energy transmission systems, indicating a complex interplay of factors driving the industry forward [15].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector showed strong performance with the photovoltaic ETF (159857) rising over 2% during trading, with a transaction volume of 268 million yuan [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 260 million yuan over the last ten trading days, with a current fund size of 2.322 billion yuan, making it the largest in its category in the Shenzhen market [1] - The ETF closely tracks the photovoltaic industry index, with major allocations in photovoltaic equipment (61.53%), grid equipment (13.3%), and electricity (8.57%) [1] Group 2 - Recent discussions by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized guiding the photovoltaic industry towards healthy competition and avoiding "involution" [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced that it will phase out the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026 [1] - The space photovoltaic concept is gaining attention, with Elon Musk's space energy plan bringing new momentum to the industry [1] Group 3 - High silver prices are pushing the photovoltaic metallization sector towards a technological revolution, with copper alternatives like silver-coated copper and electroplated copper becoming key cost-reduction strategies [2] - Successful large-scale application of these alternatives could significantly enhance the performance of related materials and equipment companies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the photovoltaic industry, with the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index rising by 0.98% as of February 6, 2026, and several key stocks such as GCL-Poly Energy and JinkoSolar showing significant gains [1] - The photovoltaic ETF fund (516180) increased by 0.66%, with the latest price reported at 0.91 yuan, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards the sector [1] - Industry insiders revealed that Elon Musk's team has been exploring the Chinese photovoltaic supply chain, suggesting potential interest and investment from international players [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized that addressing industry competition will be a top priority this year, indicating a focus on improving market conditions within the photovoltaic sector [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the rising silver prices are expected to pressure photovoltaic companies in Q4 2025, but leading firms like JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and Trina Solar are accelerating the adoption of low-cost metal pastes and high-power products to mitigate cost pressures starting in 2026 [1] - Several photovoltaic companies are actively engaging in R&D collaborations and production line setups in areas such as P-HJT, perovskite tandem cells, and specialized space packaging, laying the groundwork for emerging demands in space photovoltaic applications [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index accounted for 53.49% of the index, with companies like TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, and TCL Technology leading the list [2] - The photovoltaic ETF fund is closely tracking the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which selects up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of an independent new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration is expected to stabilize revenue expectations in the energy storage sector and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners, particularly benefiting state-owned enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Southern Fund's New Energy ETF (516160) rose by 2.57%, with a turnover of 3.35% and a transaction volume of 227 million yuan [1]. - Key stocks in the index, such as Zhiyu Technology, Laplace, and GCL-Poly, saw significant increases of 12.79%, 10.41%, and 10.10% respectively [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The implementation of the capacity pricing policy is expected to shift the energy storage industry from cost competition to value creation, revealing investment value [1]. - The cancellation of mandatory storage requirements is anticipated to further enhance the investment landscape in the energy storage sector [1]. Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The domestic energy storage installation is expected to experience rapid growth by 2026, with a focus on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain [1]. - Global energy storage installations are projected to increase significantly, with estimates of 279 GWh, 423 GWh, and 563 GWh for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 52%, and 33% [2]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The New Energy ETF closely tracks the CSI New Energy Index, which includes companies involved in renewable energy production, application, storage, and related devices [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL, Sungrow Power, TBEA, and others, reflecting a diverse representation of the new energy sector [2].

截至2026年2月6日 11:12，南方基金旗下新能源ETF(516160)上涨1.89%，盘中换手2.48%，成交1.67亿 元。跟踪指数中证新能源指数成分股恩捷股份上涨7.41%，协鑫集成上涨7.21%，震裕科技上涨6.98%， 天赐材料，湖南裕能等个股跟涨。 消息面上，2月5日，中国光伏行业协会于北京举办"光伏行业2025年发展回顾与2026年形势展望研讨 会"。会上了解到，"十五五"时期，全球与中国光伏新增装机增速预计均明显放缓。晶硅光伏技术在进 一步提升的同时，也将逼近极限，使得降本提效带来的边际收益减少。光伏企业须直面高质量发展挑 战，寻求新的突破点。 新能源ETF(516160)，场外联接(A类：012831；C类：012832；南方中证新能源ETF联接I：021057)。 展望2026年，华泰证券重申风电光伏板块盈利修复趋势：1）风机订单价格自2024年四季度以来持续回 暖，考虑到前期低价订单交付步入尾声，涨价订单逐步交付支撑盈利修复。2）光伏需求走低预期下， 供应链或强化质量与成本把控，加速高功率产品与贱金属导入，有望驱动盈利修复。同时，太空光伏或 打造新业态，近期SpaceX宣布收购xAI ...

Core Insights - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the space photovoltaic and ultra-high voltage sectors leading the gains, driven by significant capital inflows into related ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The electric grid equipment ETF rose by 1.33%, with a net subscription of 58 million units during the session [1] - The photovoltaic ETF from Huaxia increased by 0.1%, following a net inflow of over 4 million from the previous day [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Over 12.5 billion yuan has flowed into the electric grid equipment ETF since the beginning of the year, supported by three main factors: the surge in AI-driven electricity demand, a global upgrade of power grids, and a 4 trillion yuan investment plan by the State Grid [1] - The demand for electricity is expected to rise significantly due to AI, with an estimated 18 GW required for new GPU computing power by 2025, equivalent to the annual output of 15 nuclear power plants [1] - A global upgrade of power grids is anticipated, with the U.S. power supply gap projected to widen to 182 GW by 2030, prompting equipment manufacturers to expand internationally [1] - Domestic investments in the power grid are accelerating, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [1] Group 3: Industry Developments - SpaceX's acquisition of xAI aims to create a space-ground-computing ecosystem, indicating significant cross-industry advantages for domestic photovoltaic leaders, with space photovoltaic expected to emerge as a new business model [1] - The photovoltaic industry is set to focus on "anti-involution" strategies by 2026, as indicated in a recent meeting [1] Group 4: ETF Composition - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) has a high weight of 66.28% in ultra-high voltage, 55% in smart grid, and 14% in controllable nuclear fusion, featuring leading companies like Guodian NARI, TBEA, and Siyuan Electric [2] - The Huaxia photovoltaic ETF (515370) includes major players such as TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, and Sungrow Power, covering high-purity photovoltaic industries [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the contradiction faced during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, where carbon reduction pressures are increasing while the growth rate of new energy installations is slowing down. The introduction of a national capacity price policy is expected to open up space for new energy installations and support high-yield investment options for power companies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" investment intensity [5][6][9]. Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The national capacity price policy, issued on January 30, 2026, aims to establish a mechanism that balances power supply stability, green energy transformation, and efficient resource allocation. This policy is expected to support the development of adjustable power sources and enhance the installation of new energy [7][9]. - The report estimates that the demand for energy storage will show a high growth trend, with new energy storage installations expected to reach 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 52% and 73% respectively [8][9]. - The capacity price policy is seen as the final piece needed for energy storage development, potentially increasing project returns from approximately 6.5% to over 8% under current subsidy conditions. This is expected to stimulate investment interest from state-owned enterprises in new energy storage projects [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies involved in energy storage integration and upstream battery cells, recommending firms such as Sungrow Power Supply, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, CATL, and Eve Energy. It also advises monitoring companies like Haisum, Sungrow Electric, Canadian Solar, and Penghui Energy [9].