行 业 及 产 业 房地产 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资销售两端走弱，国常会要求更大力度推动 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 止跌回稳 看好 ——房地产 1-5 月月报 ⚫ 投资端低位继续走弱，开工、竣工降幅收窄。从 2025 年 1-5 月累计来看，投资同比- 10.7%，较前值-0.4pct；新开工同比-22.8%，较前值+1.0pct；施工同比-9.2%，较前值 +0.5pct；竣工同比-17.3%，较前值-0.4pct。5 月单月来看，投资同比-12.0%，较前值- 0.7pct；开工同比-19.3%，较前值+2.9pct；竣工同比-19.5%，较前值+8.4pct。我们认 为，目前房地产行业 ...

2025年，王来春凭借高达580亿元人民币的财富积累. 赫然出现在中国女性富豪榜的前列，成为了众人瞩目的焦点。 在这一榜单上，她与碧桂园的掌舵人杨惠妍、龙湖集团的创始人吴亚军等，商业界的重量级人物并驾齐驱，共同构成了榜单前五的璀璨星光。 她们的名字，无一不是商界传奇的代名词。 王来春所积累的巨额财富，主要源自她所掌舵的立讯精密这家科技巨头。 这家企业的市值已经突破了4000亿元大关，成为了业界一颗耀眼的明珠。 而立讯精密，也从一个名不见经传的连接器供应商，逐步蜕变成为了苹果、华为等全球科技领军企业不可或缺的核心合作伙伴。 相较于杨惠妍继承家族庞大的地产帝国，或是吴亚军在房地产领域白手起家，王来春的起点显得尤为平凡。 她出生于潮汕的一个普通农村家庭，甚至在初中阶段便因家庭原因而辍学。 然而，正是这位看似不起眼的打工妹，凭借着自己的坚韧不拔和不懈努力。 从富士康的流水线工人起步，一步一步开辟出了一条属于自己的商界传奇之路。 在二十年的时间里，王来春完成了从流水线工人到身家高达910亿元、掌舵市值4000亿元公司的华丽转身。 她不仅打破了富士康在业界的垄断地位，更是敢于与业界大佬郭台铭一较高下，展现出了非凡的商业智 ...

房地产板块突然爆发。 从市场交易看，在各项稳楼市政策作用下，房地产销售基本平稳。1—5月份，新建商品房销售面积和销售额同 比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，与1—4月份基本持平。部分一线、二线城市市场交易较为活跃，商品房销售面积和 销售额保持增长。 从市场价格看，新建商品住宅价格同比降幅继续收窄。5月份70个大中城市中，多数城市商品住宅销售价格同 比降幅收窄。其中，一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅比上月收窄0.4、0.4和0.5个百分点；二 手住宅销售价格同比降幅分别收窄0.5、0.4和0.5个百分点。从商品房库存看，5月末商品房待售面积比4月末减 少715万平方米，连续三个月减少。 付凌晖强调，总的看，促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策持续显效，5月份房地产市场运行总体平稳。但也要看 到，房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改善，促进房地产止跌回稳还需要继 续努力。 付凌晖还表示，下阶段，要认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重 大变化的现实，持续推动城市更新和危旧房改造，加大"好房子"建设供应力度，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释 放，积极构建房地产发展 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

Policy News - The Central and State Offices proposed to increase the supply of affordable housing and support social forces in operating long-term rental housing [1] - The State Council emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to stabilize and promote the market [1] Market News - In May, Beijing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with food prices down by 0.3% and non-food prices down by 0.2% [4] - There has been a significant push in various cities to acquire existing housing stock to convert into affordable rental housing, with approximately 90 cities announcing such initiatives since 2024 [5] Real Estate Company News - China Resources Land acquired three land parcels in Beijing, Nanjing, and Chongqing in May, with a total floor area of approximately 176,489 square meters and a total equity consideration of about 5.94 billion yuan [6] - Vanke sold all of its 72.96 million A-share treasury stocks, raising a total of 479 million yuan, which will help optimize its asset structure and replenish liquidity [7] - New City Development successfully issued $300 million in offshore bonds, marking the first issuance of private real estate offshore bonds in nearly three years, with a coupon rate of 11.88% [9] Sales Performance - China Merchants Shekou achieved a cumulative contracted sales amount of 67.146 billion yuan and a contracted sales area of 2.6553 million square meters from January to May [10] - China Jinmao reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of 37.747 billion yuan and a contracted sales area of 1.7462 million square meters during the same period [11] - Longfor Group's total contract sales amounted to 28.55 billion yuan with a sales area of 2.095 million square meters from January to May [12] - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a cumulative sales amount of approximately 10.42 billion yuan and a sales area of about 623,800 square meters [13] - CIFI Holdings recorded a total contract sales amount of approximately 8.85 billion yuan and a sales area of 879,700 square meters [14]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The State Council meeting emphasized the need for a "greater effort to stabilize the real estate market" and to construct a new development model for the industry, which is crucial for promoting stable, healthy, and high-quality development [10][11] - The report indicates that the current market requires urgent solutions to the contradictions between supply and demand, particularly regarding inventory and expectations [11] - The policy direction suggests a comprehensive approach to stimulate demand and optimize supply, with expectations of continued easing measures [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the basic point of inflection for the industry may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policy support to continue [13] - Recommended investment focus includes non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and policy relief, leading real estate companies with product advantages, regional companies with differentiated fundamentals, and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction activity [13] Transaction Overview New Housing Market - From June 7 to June 13, the transaction area for new homes was 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, showing a month-on-month improvement of 5.65 percentage points [17] - The cumulative inventory reached 105.99 million square meters, with accelerated absorption in second-tier cities and slower absorption in first-tier and lower-tier cities [17] Second-Hand Housing Market - During the same period, the transaction area for second-hand homes was 1.89 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.97%, reflecting a decline of 2.21 percentage points compared to the previous month [26] - The transaction area for first-tier, second-tier, and lower-tier cities was 0.50 million, 1.30 million, and 0.09 million square meters, respectively [26] Land Market - From June 2 to June 8, the total land transaction area was 1.438 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decrease of 1.57% [35] - The total transaction amount reached 30.7 billion yuan, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 17.93% [35]

Core Insights - The Hunan real estate market is undergoing structural adjustments, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominating the market and local private enterprises finding ways to break through with flexible product strategies and regional focus [1][13] - The top three companies in the Hunan real estate sales ranking from January to May 2025 are China Resources Land, China State Construction Engineering Corporation, and China Merchants Shekou, collectively holding over 22% market share [7][13] Rankings Overview - SOEs have a significant presence, with eight companies in the top ten, accounting for 80% of the market [5][13] - Among the top 30 companies, 12 local private enterprises have improved their rankings year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum [8][9] Monthly Performance - In May 2025, China Jinmao led the monthly sales ranking with a net signed amount of 9.42 billion, significantly improving its position by 18 places compared to the previous year [10] - Local SOE Chengfa Hengwei also saw a notable rise, moving up 10 places to rank 8th in the monthly list [10] Regional Market Dynamics - In the Yueyang market, Tianlun Real Estate led with 1.97 billion in sales, while in Xiangtan, a three-way competition exists among national brands and local firms [11] - In the Zhuzhou market, brand enterprises dominate, with Jianfa Real Estate achieving the top position due to strong sales of its flagship project [12] Conclusion - The Hunan real estate market is characterized by a deepening head effect from SOEs, resilience from local private enterprises, and a diverse regional landscape, suggesting a shift towards more refined competition in the future [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new development model for real estate to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. The focus is on long-term strategies, maintaining stability while progressing, and establishing foundational systems in an orderly manner [4][8]. - The term "stop the decline and stabilize" has been reiterated, suggesting that further supportive policies may be introduced to enhance market stability. This reflects the central government's ongoing commitment to stabilizing housing prices and addressing the current market challenges [6]. - The "Good Housing" initiative is gaining traction, with increased support from various provinces and a shift in policy focus from mere housing availability to creating livable environments. This initiative is expected to accelerate development and improve the quality of housing [6][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market. This includes a thorough assessment of existing land and ongoing projects to refine current policies [4][6]. - The new development model aims to be a long-term mechanism rather than a short-term fix, with an emphasis on gradual implementation and avoiding abrupt changes in policy [6][8]. Market Analysis - The report notes that while transaction volumes in the primary and secondary housing markets have stabilized over the past three years, price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. Therefore, it is deemed necessary to enhance policy support [6]. - The anticipated new round of supportive policies may include measures such as mortgage rate reductions, increased "Good Housing" initiatives, and optimized land storage policies, which are expected to benefit quality real estate companies [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies that are likely to lead the market recovery, including firms like China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments. It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies for potential investment opportunities [6][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mid-Year China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has officially entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on June 3rd, following a vigorous selection process involving industry experts and enterprises [1]. Group 1: Evaluation Process - The evaluation will utilize a combination of expert reviews and online voting to determine the final awards, including "Top Ten High-End/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and "National Good House Comprehensive Award" [1]. - The evaluation work is currently progressing in an orderly manner, with the final results expected to be announced by the end of June [7]. Group 2: Participating Projects - High-end shortlisted project: Xi'an Huafa Jinchengfu, developed by Xi'an Qujiang Huafa Real Estate Co., Ltd., featuring modern high-rise residential architecture [1]. - Light luxury shortlisted project: Sanya Guanlan, developed by China Resources Land Holdings Co., Ltd. and others, characterized by modern resort-style high-rise residential architecture [3]. - Other notable projects include Chongqing Longfor Yuhujing and Shanghai China Railway Expo Cloud Realm, both showcasing modern architectural styles [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Since 2018, the company has focused on the evolution of product strength in the industry, transitioning from "product strength" to "product series" and further to "customer demand" research and "delivery strength" evaluation [9]. - The ongoing efforts aim to convey advanced product concepts and excellent works from leading enterprises, promoting continuous upgrades in industry product strength [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan Urban Management Bureau and Qilu Evening News are addressing the issue of non-functioning streetlights in the Central Business District (CBD), aiming to resolve the problem by the end of 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Government and Urban Management - The deputy director of the Lixia District Urban Management Bureau, Zhao Ligang, stated that the CBD's core area is developed by 13 enterprises, and the construction of supporting facilities like roads and streetlights is the responsibility of these developers [3]. - Due to varying construction timelines among projects, some roads and streetlights have not met transfer standards, affecting residents' mobility and the quality of the CBD [3]. - The local government has formed a special team to expedite the transfer of streetlight facilities, with plans to complete all transfers by the end of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Construction and Development - Jinan Urban Investment Group is currently responsible for the construction of six roads within the Jinan CBD, with three being self-built and three being built on behalf of other developers [5]. - The project manager of the CBD project department reported that temporary lighting has been installed on Yaojia Road, while other roads are in various stages of construction and transfer [5]. - For the roads built on behalf of others, developers like Vanke and Longfor are in the process of equipment procurement and installation, with plans to meet lighting and transfer conditions by the end of June [7].